Presentation of Laura Barcellos Antoniazzi for the “Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle”
Apresentação de Marcos Laura Barcellos Antoniazzi realizada no “Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle”
Date / Data : May 14 - 15th 2009/
14 e 15 de maio de 2009
Place / Local: ABTLuS, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop3
Whole-farm models - some recent trends. Mike RobertsonJoanna Hicks
This document summarizes recent trends in whole-farm modeling approaches. It finds that most studies use representative farms and static optimization to focus on profit, with few accounting for seasonal variability, price fluctuations or spatial heterogeneity. Newer approaches model smallholder farms in developing countries to assess food security and incorporate more dynamic simulation of biophysical processes under resource constraints. Overall, there is a need for whole-farm models to more clearly describe their intended users and validate their assumptions and parameters against real farm data.
This study evaluated the effectiveness of applying gypsum at different rates (0, 300, 500, 1000 lbs/acre) on water infiltration rates and crop yields on poorly drained soils in northwest Missouri over four years. The application of gypsum did not increase water infiltration rates or crop yields of corn compared to the untreated check. Educational outreach events were held to communicate the research results to over 250 local growers and discourage the use of gypsum based on the findings.
Intensification of crop-livestock farming systems in East Africa: A compariso...ILRI
Poster prepared by Kindu Mekonnen, Alan Duncan, Diego Valbuena, Bruno Gerard, Dagnachew Lule, Mesfin Bahta and Gedion Rachier at the International Conference on “Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Intensification of the Humid Highland Systems of Sub-Saharan Africa”, Kigali, Rwanda, 24-27 October 2011.
Phosphate fertilizer use in Brasil and Argentina. "Fertilizer Latinoamericano...martintorresduggan
This document provides an overview of phosphate fertilizer use in South America, with a focus on Brazil and Argentina. It discusses the importance of agriculture in Brazil and Argentina, current fertilizer consumption trends, and phosphorus as a key plant nutrient. Phosphate fertilization practices and recommendations are outlined for Brazil and Argentina. Soil testing for phosphorus is increasing but still relatively low compared to developed countries. Overall phosphate fertilizer use is steady in Brazil and Argentina and driven mainly by the expansion of soybean cultivation.
This document discusses land use systems analysis for agriculture in Brazil's São Francisco River Basin. It provides an overview of the project, including changes in agriculture from 1991 to 2004 with increased specialty crops. Land use systems under evaluation include small-scale goat/sheep production and mango production under flood and micro-sprinkler irrigation. The analysis estimates economic performance, labor requirements, water use, and productivity to assess and compare different land use systems.
Global overview of the spread of CA. Theodor FriedrichJoanna Hicks
This document provides a global overview of the spread of conservation agriculture. It discusses how conservation agriculture is defined as an approach to managing agro-ecosystems through three principles: continuous minimum mechanical soil disturbance, permanent organic soil cover, and crop species diversification. The document then summarizes global adoption trends of no-till/conservation agriculture, showing steady increases over time with over 150 million hectares adopted as of 2011. Regional adoption distributions are also shown, with South America having the highest adoption levels.
1) Brasil Ecodiesel executed an agreement concluding a process with Petrobras that will allow for large-scale soybean crushing in Rio Grande do Sul, reducing oil costs and generating soybean meal sales.
2) Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso was delayed due to rains, while yields in other regions exceeded targets.
3) Consolidation of accounting and operational integration between Brasil Ecodiesel and Maeda was completed.
The expected value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to a grain-cotton irrigat...Joanna Hicks
This document summarizes research on evaluating the value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to grain and cotton farmers in Queensland, Australia. It describes using the APSIM whole-farm modeling system to simulate irrigated crop production under different forecast scenarios. Case studies of actual farms show that incorporating streamflow forecasts from the NINO3 climate index into cotton planting decisions could increase average annual farm profits by adapting water management strategies based on the likelihood of high or low river flows.
Whole-farm models - some recent trends. Mike RobertsonJoanna Hicks
This document summarizes recent trends in whole-farm modeling approaches. It finds that most studies use representative farms and static optimization to focus on profit, with few accounting for seasonal variability, price fluctuations or spatial heterogeneity. Newer approaches model smallholder farms in developing countries to assess food security and incorporate more dynamic simulation of biophysical processes under resource constraints. Overall, there is a need for whole-farm models to more clearly describe their intended users and validate their assumptions and parameters against real farm data.
This study evaluated the effectiveness of applying gypsum at different rates (0, 300, 500, 1000 lbs/acre) on water infiltration rates and crop yields on poorly drained soils in northwest Missouri over four years. The application of gypsum did not increase water infiltration rates or crop yields of corn compared to the untreated check. Educational outreach events were held to communicate the research results to over 250 local growers and discourage the use of gypsum based on the findings.
Intensification of crop-livestock farming systems in East Africa: A compariso...ILRI
Poster prepared by Kindu Mekonnen, Alan Duncan, Diego Valbuena, Bruno Gerard, Dagnachew Lule, Mesfin Bahta and Gedion Rachier at the International Conference on “Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Intensification of the Humid Highland Systems of Sub-Saharan Africa”, Kigali, Rwanda, 24-27 October 2011.
Phosphate fertilizer use in Brasil and Argentina. "Fertilizer Latinoamericano...martintorresduggan
This document provides an overview of phosphate fertilizer use in South America, with a focus on Brazil and Argentina. It discusses the importance of agriculture in Brazil and Argentina, current fertilizer consumption trends, and phosphorus as a key plant nutrient. Phosphate fertilization practices and recommendations are outlined for Brazil and Argentina. Soil testing for phosphorus is increasing but still relatively low compared to developed countries. Overall phosphate fertilizer use is steady in Brazil and Argentina and driven mainly by the expansion of soybean cultivation.
This document discusses land use systems analysis for agriculture in Brazil's São Francisco River Basin. It provides an overview of the project, including changes in agriculture from 1991 to 2004 with increased specialty crops. Land use systems under evaluation include small-scale goat/sheep production and mango production under flood and micro-sprinkler irrigation. The analysis estimates economic performance, labor requirements, water use, and productivity to assess and compare different land use systems.
Global overview of the spread of CA. Theodor FriedrichJoanna Hicks
This document provides a global overview of the spread of conservation agriculture. It discusses how conservation agriculture is defined as an approach to managing agro-ecosystems through three principles: continuous minimum mechanical soil disturbance, permanent organic soil cover, and crop species diversification. The document then summarizes global adoption trends of no-till/conservation agriculture, showing steady increases over time with over 150 million hectares adopted as of 2011. Regional adoption distributions are also shown, with South America having the highest adoption levels.
1) Brasil Ecodiesel executed an agreement concluding a process with Petrobras that will allow for large-scale soybean crushing in Rio Grande do Sul, reducing oil costs and generating soybean meal sales.
2) Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso was delayed due to rains, while yields in other regions exceeded targets.
3) Consolidation of accounting and operational integration between Brasil Ecodiesel and Maeda was completed.
The expected value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to a grain-cotton irrigat...Joanna Hicks
This document summarizes research on evaluating the value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to grain and cotton farmers in Queensland, Australia. It describes using the APSIM whole-farm modeling system to simulate irrigated crop production under different forecast scenarios. Case studies of actual farms show that incorporating streamflow forecasts from the NINO3 climate index into cotton planting decisions could increase average annual farm profits by adapting water management strategies based on the likelihood of high or low river flows.
Farmers purchase seeds from multiple brands and dealers to diversify their risk. They typically plant 3-4 brands and 5-8 varieties of corn, with 60% selecting germplasm first before choosing biotech traits. Purchases are made from 2-3 dealers in November and December. 38% of the corn is the latest top-yielding hybrids, with the goal of maximizing yield while minimizing risk through genetic diversity.
CA in Brazil, yesterday, today and tomorrow. Pedro ArreasJoanna Hicks
The document discusses conservation agriculture in Brazil from the past to the present. It notes that Brazilian agriculture has evolved from traditional practices to become more high-tech and science-based, driven by population growth, urbanization, and changing diets globally. Conservation agriculture techniques developed in Brazil include no-till cropping systems, integrated crop-livestock-forest systems, and biological nitrogen fixation. These approaches have allowed agricultural intensification and expansion while reducing environmental impacts. Emerging areas of focus include agroecological zoning, forest-friendly agriculture, and biochar research networks.
Presentation by Bernardo Strassburg, the International Institute for Sustainability, Brazil, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 1, Session 1: ‘Mato Grosso: realising the land-sparing potential from increased agricultural productivity’.
- USDA will update its grain and meat protein balance sheets on April 10th following a March 1 grain stocks report that showed much larger corn stocks than expected
- Analysts expect USDA to revise its 2012/13 corn ending stocks estimate higher, with an average estimate of 824 million bushels
- Given this, the document discusses how USDA may adjust its estimates for corn exports, ethanol use, and feed use in the April report
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indonesian agriculture and food security. It provides context on Indonesia's development and agriculture sector, then analyzes how climate change may negatively affect agricultural production and food availability based on climate modeling scenarios. The document outlines Indonesia's national policies around climate change mitigation and adaptation for the agriculture sector. These include mainstreaming climate change into development planning, establishing a climate change roadmap, and sectoral plans to reduce emissions and increase resilience of food production.
The document discusses decision and policy analysis work at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) on several topics:
1. CIAT focuses on delivering research outcomes related to climate change, ecosystem services, and linking farmers to markets through modeling, gender analysis, impact assessment, and other expertise.
2. Research on cassava and other staple crops examines their suitability and potential roles under climate change through crop modeling and analysis of adaptation options.
3. Work in four sites in East Africa examines gender dimensions of climate-smart agriculture adoption and relations between different stakeholder groups in watershed management.
4. Research on payments for ecosystem services in Peru aims to balance watershed stakeholders' interests through
This document provides growth projections for eucalyptus plantations in Bahia, Brazil over a period of years based on climate and soil data. It describes two scenarios - one with average soil fertility and management, and another with increased irrigation, fertility, and optimized practices. The first scenario projects average growth rates similar to other studies in Brazil. The second scenario with improved practices projects significantly higher growth, with potential yields exceeding reports from other regions. Projections are based on a forest growth model run with climate data from a nearby weather station and soil properties.
This document discusses an integrated sugarcane and livestock production model in Brazil. It finds that the most important integration is with livestock production on pastures. An urgent and large-scale integration is needed that adapts to different livestock systems and will not be adopted under regular expansion patterns. The integration would involve using sugarcane mill residues to produce complete rations for cattle at the mill sites. This would create an economic incentive for cattle production to remain integrated with crops and prevent its migration. The integration is found to potentially increase food production, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and promote regional development by re-investing profits locally.
- The company reported consolidated results for the second quarter of 2011, with gross revenue of R$220.7 million, a 10.5% increase over the previous quarter. However, net revenue declined 2.6% to R$199.7 million.
- Cost of goods sold increased 6.3% to R$207.9 million, leading to a 96.9% drop in gross profit to R$693,000. Despite a 1247% increase in financial results, the company reported a net income of R$2.86 million, compared to a net loss of R$865,000 in the previous quarter.
- Soybean meal accounted for 47% of cost of goods sold, while
Climate Change and Agriculture: Change in Yields
in a global CGE MIRAGE-CC
Presented by David Laborde at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
The India Rice Bulletin provides rice yield forecasts for India at the state level. It uses crop growth simulation, weather analysis, remote sensing, and statistics to forecast yields. Rice is a staple crop for half the global population, with India as the second largest producer behind China. The bulletin analyzes eight agroclimatic zones in India and simulates rice growth using the WARM model within different administrative units and weather conditions. Future improvements may include disease modeling and calibrating weather data.
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Gaspar H. Korndörfer (Federal University of Uberlândia)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Jorge Donzeli (Sugarcane Research Center - CTC)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
Dr. Renato Vicentini from the State University of Campinas presented his research using systems biology approaches to understand sucrose synthesis and accumulation in sugarcane. His laboratory investigates gene regulatory, metabolic, and protein networks in sugarcane. They are developing predictive models to scale from genotype to phenotype. Their goals are to understand how some sugarcane genotypes accumulate more sucrose than others and to investigate allosteric regulation of key enzymes. Their approaches include RNA sequencing, metabolic profiling, and phosphoproteomics. They are also manipulating source-sink relationships in sugarcane to study differential gene expression and developing a sugarcane transcriptome. The talk provided an overview of their work using multi-omics data to build biological networks
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Frederick C. Botha (Sugar Research Australia)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
This document provides an introduction to biological network inference using Gaussian graphical models. It discusses motivations for network inference based on the central dogma of molecular biology and common questions in functional genomics. The challenges of modeling high-dimensional omics data are described, including what network nodes and edges represent statistically and biologically. Gaussian graphical models are proposed as a tool for modeling dependencies between biological variables in genomic data, with the goal of reconstructing biological networks from large-scale omics experiments.
O documento estabelece as diretrizes para parcerias entre o CTBE e a indústria, visando:
1) Atrair parceiros capitalistas e transferir tecnologias;
2) Definir claramente as regras para projetos conjuntos, como propriedade intelectual, sigilo e divisão de riscos e benefícios;
3) Maximizar os ganhos de ambas as partes por meio de uma relação colaborativa.
O documento discute mecanismos para aproximar o CTBE da indústria, como a composição de um Comitê de Inovação e critérios de seleção de projetos de pesquisa. Também aborda a política de sigilo, regras de partilha de benefícios em parcerias, uso de quotas societárias e propriedade intelectual em projetos conjuntos.
1. O documento propõe a substituição de 10% da gasolina mundial por etanol brasileiro até 2025, o que traria grandes benefícios econômicos e sociais ao Brasil.
2. Seriam criados mais de 9 milhões de empregos, haveria um aumento de 13% no PIB brasileiro atual e seriam construídas 1000 novas destilarias.
3. Para isso, o Brasil criaria um laboratório nacional de pesquisa sobre bioetanol capaz de enfrentar os desafios tecnológic
Apresentação de Gilson Spanemberg realizada no "Workshop sobre Procedimentos que Regem o Relacionamento do CTBE com a Indústria"
Data: 1 de junho de 2010
Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brasil
Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop6
Apresentação de Laercio de Sequeira realizada no "Workshop sobre Procedimentos que Regem o Relacionamento do CTBE com a Indústria"
Data: 1 de junho de 2010
Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brasil
Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop6
Presentation of Arnaldo Walter for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Arnaldo Walter realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
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Farmers purchase seeds from multiple brands and dealers to diversify their risk. They typically plant 3-4 brands and 5-8 varieties of corn, with 60% selecting germplasm first before choosing biotech traits. Purchases are made from 2-3 dealers in November and December. 38% of the corn is the latest top-yielding hybrids, with the goal of maximizing yield while minimizing risk through genetic diversity.
CA in Brazil, yesterday, today and tomorrow. Pedro ArreasJoanna Hicks
The document discusses conservation agriculture in Brazil from the past to the present. It notes that Brazilian agriculture has evolved from traditional practices to become more high-tech and science-based, driven by population growth, urbanization, and changing diets globally. Conservation agriculture techniques developed in Brazil include no-till cropping systems, integrated crop-livestock-forest systems, and biological nitrogen fixation. These approaches have allowed agricultural intensification and expansion while reducing environmental impacts. Emerging areas of focus include agroecological zoning, forest-friendly agriculture, and biochar research networks.
Presentation by Bernardo Strassburg, the International Institute for Sustainability, Brazil, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 1, Session 1: ‘Mato Grosso: realising the land-sparing potential from increased agricultural productivity’.
- USDA will update its grain and meat protein balance sheets on April 10th following a March 1 grain stocks report that showed much larger corn stocks than expected
- Analysts expect USDA to revise its 2012/13 corn ending stocks estimate higher, with an average estimate of 824 million bushels
- Given this, the document discusses how USDA may adjust its estimates for corn exports, ethanol use, and feed use in the April report
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indonesian agriculture and food security. It provides context on Indonesia's development and agriculture sector, then analyzes how climate change may negatively affect agricultural production and food availability based on climate modeling scenarios. The document outlines Indonesia's national policies around climate change mitigation and adaptation for the agriculture sector. These include mainstreaming climate change into development planning, establishing a climate change roadmap, and sectoral plans to reduce emissions and increase resilience of food production.
The document discusses decision and policy analysis work at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) on several topics:
1. CIAT focuses on delivering research outcomes related to climate change, ecosystem services, and linking farmers to markets through modeling, gender analysis, impact assessment, and other expertise.
2. Research on cassava and other staple crops examines their suitability and potential roles under climate change through crop modeling and analysis of adaptation options.
3. Work in four sites in East Africa examines gender dimensions of climate-smart agriculture adoption and relations between different stakeholder groups in watershed management.
4. Research on payments for ecosystem services in Peru aims to balance watershed stakeholders' interests through
This document provides growth projections for eucalyptus plantations in Bahia, Brazil over a period of years based on climate and soil data. It describes two scenarios - one with average soil fertility and management, and another with increased irrigation, fertility, and optimized practices. The first scenario projects average growth rates similar to other studies in Brazil. The second scenario with improved practices projects significantly higher growth, with potential yields exceeding reports from other regions. Projections are based on a forest growth model run with climate data from a nearby weather station and soil properties.
This document discusses an integrated sugarcane and livestock production model in Brazil. It finds that the most important integration is with livestock production on pastures. An urgent and large-scale integration is needed that adapts to different livestock systems and will not be adopted under regular expansion patterns. The integration would involve using sugarcane mill residues to produce complete rations for cattle at the mill sites. This would create an economic incentive for cattle production to remain integrated with crops and prevent its migration. The integration is found to potentially increase food production, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and promote regional development by re-investing profits locally.
- The company reported consolidated results for the second quarter of 2011, with gross revenue of R$220.7 million, a 10.5% increase over the previous quarter. However, net revenue declined 2.6% to R$199.7 million.
- Cost of goods sold increased 6.3% to R$207.9 million, leading to a 96.9% drop in gross profit to R$693,000. Despite a 1247% increase in financial results, the company reported a net income of R$2.86 million, compared to a net loss of R$865,000 in the previous quarter.
- Soybean meal accounted for 47% of cost of goods sold, while
Climate Change and Agriculture: Change in Yields
in a global CGE MIRAGE-CC
Presented by David Laborde at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
The India Rice Bulletin provides rice yield forecasts for India at the state level. It uses crop growth simulation, weather analysis, remote sensing, and statistics to forecast yields. Rice is a staple crop for half the global population, with India as the second largest producer behind China. The bulletin analyzes eight agroclimatic zones in India and simulates rice growth using the WARM model within different administrative units and weather conditions. Future improvements may include disease modeling and calibrating weather data.
Similar to Brazilian Land Use Model and Application for Ethanol Impacts (11)
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Gaspar H. Korndörfer (Federal University of Uberlândia)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Jorge Donzeli (Sugarcane Research Center - CTC)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
Dr. Renato Vicentini from the State University of Campinas presented his research using systems biology approaches to understand sucrose synthesis and accumulation in sugarcane. His laboratory investigates gene regulatory, metabolic, and protein networks in sugarcane. They are developing predictive models to scale from genotype to phenotype. Their goals are to understand how some sugarcane genotypes accumulate more sucrose than others and to investigate allosteric regulation of key enzymes. Their approaches include RNA sequencing, metabolic profiling, and phosphoproteomics. They are also manipulating source-sink relationships in sugarcane to study differential gene expression and developing a sugarcane transcriptome. The talk provided an overview of their work using multi-omics data to build biological networks
Event / Evento: II Workshop on Sugarcane Physiology for Agronomic Applications
Speaker / Palestrante: Frederick C. Botha (Sugar Research Australia)
Date / Data: Oct, 29-30th 2013 / 29 e 30 de outubro de 2013
Place / Local: CTBE/CNPEM Campus, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: www.bioetanol.org.br/sugarcanephysiology
This document provides an introduction to biological network inference using Gaussian graphical models. It discusses motivations for network inference based on the central dogma of molecular biology and common questions in functional genomics. The challenges of modeling high-dimensional omics data are described, including what network nodes and edges represent statistically and biologically. Gaussian graphical models are proposed as a tool for modeling dependencies between biological variables in genomic data, with the goal of reconstructing biological networks from large-scale omics experiments.
O documento estabelece as diretrizes para parcerias entre o CTBE e a indústria, visando:
1) Atrair parceiros capitalistas e transferir tecnologias;
2) Definir claramente as regras para projetos conjuntos, como propriedade intelectual, sigilo e divisão de riscos e benefícios;
3) Maximizar os ganhos de ambas as partes por meio de uma relação colaborativa.
O documento discute mecanismos para aproximar o CTBE da indústria, como a composição de um Comitê de Inovação e critérios de seleção de projetos de pesquisa. Também aborda a política de sigilo, regras de partilha de benefícios em parcerias, uso de quotas societárias e propriedade intelectual em projetos conjuntos.
1. O documento propõe a substituição de 10% da gasolina mundial por etanol brasileiro até 2025, o que traria grandes benefícios econômicos e sociais ao Brasil.
2. Seriam criados mais de 9 milhões de empregos, haveria um aumento de 13% no PIB brasileiro atual e seriam construídas 1000 novas destilarias.
3. Para isso, o Brasil criaria um laboratório nacional de pesquisa sobre bioetanol capaz de enfrentar os desafios tecnológic
Apresentação de Gilson Spanemberg realizada no "Workshop sobre Procedimentos que Regem o Relacionamento do CTBE com a Indústria"
Data: 1 de junho de 2010
Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brasil
Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop6
Apresentação de Laercio de Sequeira realizada no "Workshop sobre Procedimentos que Regem o Relacionamento do CTBE com a Indústria"
Data: 1 de junho de 2010
Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brasil
Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop6
Presentation of Arnaldo Walter for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Arnaldo Walter realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Celso Manzato for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Celso Manzato realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
The document discusses the Canasat Project, which uses remote sensing satellite images to monitor sugarcane crops in Brazil. It summarizes the project's use of satellite data to estimate sugarcane area, identify expansion and renovation, track pre-harvest burning, and analyze land use change. Spatial-temporal analysis of MODIS images from 2000-2008 showed land use changes from pasture to agriculture to sugarcane. The project is also developing models and research to better understand indirect land use change from sugarcane expansion.
O documento fornece informações sobre a produção de cana-de-açúcar no Brasil em 2008-2009, incluindo área colhida, produção, rendimento e produção de etanol. Também discute a contribuição de energia fóssil no processo e as emissões de gases de efeito estufa associadas.
Presentation of Manoel Regis Leal for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Manoel Regis Leal realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Manoel Regis Leal for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Manoel Regis Leal realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Martin Junginger for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Martin Junginger realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Marcia Azanha for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Marcia Azanha realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Marcel Gomes
for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Marcel Gomes realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
Presentation of Dr Mairi J Black
for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"
Apresentação de Dr Mairi J Black realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "
Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
More from CTBE - Brazilian Bioethanol Sci&Tech Laboratory (20)
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Brazilian Land Use Model and Application for Ethanol Impacts
1. ICONE Brazilian Land Use Model
and its application for ethanol impacts
Laura Barcellos Antoniazzi
Researcher, ICONE
(lantoniazzi@iconebrasil.org.br)
Sao Paulo, May 15th 2009
2. Outline
1. Introduction.
2. General structure of the land use model
Diagrams explaining the information flows, connections among variables and
effect-cause relations.
Assumptions.
3. Summarized results.
Historic data.
Supply and demand projections for Brazil.
Area allocation at regional level.
Improvements under development
3. Applications
2
3. Introduction
There are many concerns worldwide about the social and environmental impacts
of biofuels productions and expansion.
Land Use Change (LUC), as well as Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), are now
being taking into account in many policies aiming to promote biofuels.
ICONE started to work on an Agriculture Projection Model in the beginning of 2008
in a joint effort with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI),
from Iowa State University, which is part of the Center for Agriculture and Rural
Development (CARD).
Although the Brazilian model follows the same structure of the FAPRI Models, it
was adapted to the specific conditions and situations of the Brazilian
agricultural sector.
The Model aims to capture the Brazilian land use dynamics observed in the past
and to forecast new dynamics
3
5. General structure of the land use model
The model comprises two general sections: supply and demand and land allocation.
Supply and demand, for a given year, is calculated at a national level. Supply includes
production and initial stocks (in the case of crops), and demand includes domestic
consumption, net trade and final stocks.
Supply (regional) = Demands (national)
Land allocation calculations are integrated to the supply side. Area is calculated at a regional
level, as a function of the expected market profitability of the product and of the competing
products.
The amount of land allocated for a given crop, in a given region, depends on the response to
expected market profitability, which means that regions with higher market returns will have
higher planted area.
Allocation of land across regions Brazilian production national supply
The calculation of the expected planted area is also calibrated with the lagged area (area of
the previous year) in order to avoid strong oscillations in the planted area.
Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 5
6. General structure of the land use model
Planted forests are also included in the area allocation section of the model. For the version
we are using now, projections of land allocation for planted forest are exogenous.
The model comprises 6 macro-regions in Brazil:
Region 1: South (States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina e Parana);
Region 2: Southeast (States of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo e Rio de Janeiro);
Region 3: Center-West Cerrado (States of Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul and the Cerrado area in
Mato Grosso);
Region 4: Amazon North (States of Amazonas, Para, Amapa, Acre, Rondonia, Roraima and the
Amazon area in Mato Grosso);
Region 5: Coastal Northeast (States of Ceara, Alagoas, Sergipe, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte
and Paraiba);
Region 6: Mapito e Bahia (States of Maranhao, Piaui, Tocantins e Bahia).
The regions are independent in the model in the sense that land allocation equations for each
crop are different among regions. However, given that the total production must be equal to
the demand, if a given crop looses area in a certain region, for a given regional yield, other
region will offset it with an increase in area.
Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 6
7. Fig. 1 Brazilian Biomes and States
RR
AP
AP
AM
MA CE
PA RN
PB
PE
AC PI AL
RO MT TO SE
BA
GO
MG
MS ES
Amazon Forest
Atlantic Forest SP RJ
Savanna PR
Steppe
Pantanal wetland SC
South Grassland
RS
8. Fig. 2 Macro-regions used in the Land Use Model
North Amazonia
Center West Cerrado
MAPITO and Bahia
Northeast coast
Southeast
South
Source: UFMG, ICONE. Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 8
9. Figure 3. Land Use Model: Interactions Among
Sectors
Rice
Corn
Ethanol
Sugarcane
Sugar
Industry and
Cotton biodiesel
Soybean oil
Drybean
Pork
Soybean
Soybean Poultry (eggs
meal
and chicken)
Pasture Beef
Source: ICONE
Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 9
10. Figure 4. General Structure of the Land Use Model
Exogenous macroeconomic data
- Population;
- World and national GDP;
- World oil price and domestic gasoline
price;
Domestic - Exchange rate;
consumption - Inflation rate;
- Fertilizer price index;
- Vehicle fleet.
Costs
Net exports
Demand
Final stocks
(t-1) Expected
Price Area
return
Production
Supply Yields
Initial stocks
Exogenous Endogenous
variable variable
Source: ICONE. Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 10
11. General structure of the land use model
One key output of the model is the total land allocated for agriculture and
pastures. If this total, plus the exogenous planted forest area, is increasing over
time, more natural land is brought for production purposes. This excess allocation of
land can be explained by the combination of two factors:
Increase of cattle herd in regions with agricultural frontiers (regions 4 and 6 of
the model), with a simultaneous reduction or stabilization of cattle herd in the
traditional areas. This can be interpreted as an indirect effect due to crops
expansion;
Expansion of crops in the frontier, which is a direct effect.
In order to measure the indirect effect it is necessary to isolate these two causes
of crops and pasture expansion in the frontier regions.
11
12. Data Gathering and Preparation
In order to run the regressions and to calculate the parameters (elasticities and coefficients)
used for the projections, a 13 year database was organized, from 1996 to 2008. Due to the
lack of information with respect to prices and costs of production, data from 1997 and 2007
were used for the estimations.
With respect to the variables that are solved endogenously in the model, the following
variables are included in the database:
Supply and demand balance sheets for Brazil;
Regional information on production, planted area, yields, prices received by farmers, costs of
production, cattle herd structure, animal production (beef, chicken, eggs, pork and milk).
The model requires a set of exogenous macroeconomic variables (presented in the figure 2).
We are using exogenous macroeconomic variables supplied by FAPRI.
The model is prepared to project ethanol exports and domestic demand endogenously, but
can also work with exogenous scenarios, such as different countries´ mandates. ICONE is
ready also to create exogenous scenarios of ethanol world trade, calculating supply and
demand for the main producers and consumers (Unites States, European union, Japan, etc.).
12
13. Assumptions
Equilibrium price is obtained when supply is equal to demand, in a given year, for a
given activity (crops or animal products).
Area allocated to a given crop, in a given year, is a result of the market equilibrium.
Producers respond, in terms of planted area, according to the expected market
return (costs of production of the current year and prices received in the previous
year).
Prices received by farmers and prices paid by consumers follow the same trend
over time.
The model assumes full availability of capital for investments and credit for working
capital, which means that it does not capture negative effects of low availability of
credit in the market.
Crops yields and total recoverable sugar factors, although regional, are projected as
a time series trends.
Prices are solved at a national level and are transmitted to the regions using
transmissions coefficients estimated by regressions. Improvements in infrastructure,
which would may lead to increase prices and to reduce costs of production can be
simulated as scenarios.
Confidential. Do not quote or cite unless authorized. 13
14. The two model´s versions
First Version
Results are ready and have already been used for some projects. Results validation
among analyzed sectors will be carry out soon.
The first version doesn't considered land availability, so that total agricultural land
use can expand indefinitely.
Equations for Allocation Area are independent in each Region. Historical planted
areas are considered as an explanatory variable.
Improved Version
Area allocated for each crop and pasture will be defined by two equations
1. Expansion Equation: it will define total agricultural area and it is subject to land
availability.
2. Shares Equation: for each crop and pasture, its share on the total agricultural area
is the dependent variable. Returns of all crops are used as explanatory variables.
Equations for Allocation Area are simultaneously in each Region.
15. Net Growth of Agricultural Land Uses Area and Cattle Herd,
2002-06 (1,000 ha and heads)
Sugarcane Other crops Total used Cattle
State Pasture (ha)
(ha) (ha) area (ha) Herd (hd)
São Paulo 622 -224 -882 -484 -909
Minas Gerais 153 389 -625 -82 1,644
Paraná 74 850 -1 287 -284
Mato Grosso do Sul 41 1 -985 -210 558
Goiás 34 576 -2,041 -1,431 545
Bahia 26 492 143 661 912
Mato Grosso 25 1,634 -1,437 0 3,881
Maranhão 16 298 -463 -148 1.835
Pará 3 115 2,502 2,620 5,311
South-Centre 949 3,226 -5,971 -1,920 5,435
Total 1,000 5,446 -5,385 1,061 18,383
Source: PAM/IBGE, Agricultural Census/IBGE and PPM/IBGE.
16. Brazil: Crops Area (excluding 2nd crop)
and Production and Meat Production
Performance
Crops Area and Production
(million tons and million ha) Meat (million tons)
900 160 12 18
800 140 16
10
700 120 14
600 8 12
100
500 10
80 6
400 8
60
300
4 6
200 40
4
100 20 2
2
0 0
0 0
5
9
1
3
7
7
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08(e)
/0
/0
/9
/0
/0
/9
00
04
06
98
02
96
Production Planted Area
Chicken Beef Pork
Source: CONAB; USDA; ABIEC; ABIPECS; ABEF. Elaboration: ICONE
17. Brazil: Livestock dynamics
Catle Herd in the Model´s Regions
Pasture Area in the Model´s Regions
60000
70000 South
Southeast
Center West Cerrado
60000 North Amazonia 50000
MAPITO and Bahia
Northeast coast
( 1 ,0 0 0 h d s )
50000
(1,000 ha)
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
South
Southeast
10000 Center West Cerrado
10000 North Amazonia
MAPITO and Bahia
Northeast coast
0 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
18. Brazil: Sugarcane, Sugar and Ethanol
Production
Sugarcane Production and Area Sugar and Ethanol Production
Million ton Million ha Million ton Billion ltr
600 8 35 60
7 30
500 50
6 25
400 40
5
20
300 4 30
15
3 20
200 10
2
5 10
100
1
0 0
0 0
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
Production Planted Area Sugar Ethanol
Source: CONAB; IBGE; UNICA. Elaboration: ICONE
21. Applications
The model is very flexible and can be used for different types of simulations and
scenarios.
The model is also prepared to simulate impacts of variables that are not explicit in
the model, such as improvements in transportation infrastructure (construction of an
ethanol pipeline, for example), costs reduction due to he adoption of new
technologies (second generation ethanol and GMOs adoption), among others
applications.
Useful for specific sector analysis
Regional land use results can be disaggregate for smaller scales (World Bank´s
Brazil Low Carbon Study)
Land use changes can be converted into carbon emissions.
It is possible to connect the Brazilian Model with world models.
It is used to compare land use results from other models (GTAP- CARB)