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Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place:Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place:
“Effectively Identifying Market Opportunities”
Mark Killion, CFA
Managing Director
World Industry Service
Global Insight
September, 2007
1Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Agenda
Use Globally Harmonized Industry Benchmarks
To Illuminate Market Sizing
World Industry Service (WIS)
Rank and Compare Industry Sales and Growth
Profile of Exports and Trade
Impacts on Industries from Trade
For More Information see: www.Globalinsight.com/WIS
2Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
WIS World (72 Economies)
[Share in World Output - Nominal US$]
Asia Pacific (17) [26%]
NAFTA (3) [34%]
Latin America (13) [4%]
Europe (25) [33%]
West Europe (17) [29%]
East Europe & CIS (8) [4%]
Middle East & Africa (14) [ 3%]
WIS Includes Industry Benchmarks for 72 Countries
Note: Number of member Countries in ( )
Country & Regional Shares in [ ]
Asia Pacific (17 Economies)
[Share in Asia Pacific]
OECD Asia [56%] – Japan, S. Korea,
Australia, New Zealand
Greater China [27%] – China, Hong
Kong, Taiwan
ASEAN 6 [8%] – Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, VietNam
South Asia [9%] – India, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka, Bangladesh
BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa [12%]
3Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Product Sectors
1. Agriculture – Farm, Forest & Fishing
2. Mining – Energy, Metals & Minerals
3. Manufacturing – Food, Beverages, Textiles,
Wood, Paper, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Metals,
Minerals, Industrial Machinery, Computers, Electronics,
Autos, Shipping, Aircraft, Railroad, Scientific, Medical
4. Utilities – Power and Water
5. Construction – Commercial and Residential
Services Sectors
6. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants, Hotels
7. Transportation, Storage, Communications
8. Finance, Insurance, Leasing, Real Estate,
Computer Services, R&D, Business Services
9. Public Administration, Defense, Health Care,
Education, Recreation
WIS Includes 71 Industries, Grouped into 9 “ISIC” Categories
Finance
24%
Retail,
Wholesale
14%Mining
4%
Manufact-
uring
19%
Social &
Personel
Services
20%
Transport,
Storage,
Commun-
ication
Services
7%
Agriculture
3%
Construct-
ion
6%
Utility
3%
Sector Shares of World GDP
(US$45 Trillion)
4Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Global Output (Value Added) of Goods & Services
Service Sector Output Dominates Global Economy
Global Output of Goods and Service Sectors
OECD -
Services
60%
OECD - Goods
18%
Emerg. Mkts -
Goods
10%
Emerg. Mkts -
Services
12%
5Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Exports Are Typically More Volatile than Overall GDP
(Percent Growth Rates)
US and World Growth is Shaped By Trade Patterns
Growth in Exports and GDP, United States
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
18%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
AnnualGrowth
Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($)
Growth in Exports and GDP, World
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
18%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
AnnualGrowth
Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($)
6Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Annual Percent Growth of Sector Real Value Added
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
AnnualGrowth(%)
Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services
Sector Composition of Macro Economic Growth
WorldUnited States
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
AnnualGrowth(%)
Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services
7Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Electrical Machinery
Computers & Electronics
Aircraft
“Higher” Tech “Lower” Tech
Outlook for Key Manufacturing Sectors in the U.S.
(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales)
Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Basic Industrial Chemicals
Nonelectrical Machinery
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
8Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Wholesale & Retail
Communications
Transport & Storage
Transport, Trade and Communications Financial and Business Services
Outlook for Key Services Sectors in the U.S.
(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales)
Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Computer Software & Services
Financial Institutions
Business Services
9Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Real” Terms?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added)
910251022187.051.29. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.
1612201721136.614.510. Communications
4646444747295.841.411. Commercial Research & Development
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
22
13
6
11
37
5
9
1
2
26
19
41
9
31
48
40
1
4
33
29
2
12
10
18
40
1
5
4.96
7.44
7.94
8.18
8.53
9.58
11.48
12.24
20.63
Growth
2003-07
(%)
20
14
1
11
7
5
9
26
2
23
16
3
9
7
12
20
2
1
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
120.16. Electrical Industrial Machinery
345.513. Retail Trade (Excl. Automotive & Gasoline)
181.98. Computer & Related Services
450.17. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools
350.55. Aircraft & Spacecraft
480.14. Agricultural Machinery
420.23. Special Industry Machinery
10.82. Computers & Office Equipment
44.71. Communications Equipment incl. Semiconductors
Share
in GDP
(%)
Ranking in U.S.
Top Twelve Real Growth Performers
By Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)
10Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Nominal” Terms?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in US$)
4850434747439.591.49. Commercial Research & Development
9396359.110.310. Basic Industrial Chemicals
61326916198.561.211. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
33
8
7
46
4
20
11
2
1
18
10
48
27
39
49
16
3
1
33
13
12
14
20
45
40
3
1
8.01
9.62
9.99
11.90
12.70
13.98
15.10
16.01
28.00
Growt
h 2003-
07 (%)
30
11
2
17
7
42
13
6
1
29
8
9
15
11
34
14
2
1
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
400.56. Aircraft & Aerospace
231.912. Computer & Related Services
140.38. Cement & Construction Material
350.17. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools
430.15. Agricultural Machinery
494.74. Communications Equipment inc. Semiconductors
110.23. Special Industry Machinery
30.32. Iron & Steel
10.21. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals
Share
in GDP
(%)
Ranking in U.S.
Top Twelve Real Nominal Performers
By Growth Rate in Value Added (Nominal US$)
11Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Which Industries Were the Weakest in “Real” Terms?
(Industry Ranking of 2000-2006 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added)
221723192191.102.39. Retail Trade: Automotive & Gasoline
1922113821.290.810. Recreational & Cultural Services
2624112820131.363.411. Construction
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
36
6
9
25
26
2
11
21
0
17
4
36
27
45
47
12
30
35
22
14
44
8
47
42
4
29
35
1.46
0.72
0.66
0.61
0.28
0.10
-1.30
-1.89
-2.71
Growth
2003-07
(%)
32
35
48
13
43
2
15
39
0
15
8
44
4
45
40
1
12
10
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
330.66. Wood Products & Furniture
270.112. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers
50.28. Metals Mining
90.17. Shipbuilding & Repairing
450.15. Rubber Products
470.04. Electrical Appliances & Housewares
130.93. Renting & Leasing of Machinery & Equipment
291.22. Motor Vehicles & Parts
390.41. Textiles, Apparel & Leather
Share
in GDP
(%)
Ranking in U.S.
Weakest Twelve Real Growth Performers
By Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)
12Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Share of Exports in GDP in the Emerging Markets
Accelerated in 2000-06
(Inflation Adjusted Exports of Goods & Services as Share of GDP)
Accelerated Export Growth in Emerging Markets in the Recent Past
Trade as Share of GDP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Percent(BasedonRealUS$terms)
World OECD
Emerging Markets United States
13Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Goods and Services Exports in OECD and Emerging Markets
Trade in Goods Dominates Trade in Services
Exports of Goods & Services in Developed Countries
and Emerging Markets
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Mil.NominalUS$
OECD - Goods Emerging Markets - Goods
OECD - Serv. Emerging Markets - Serv.
14Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Growth in Exports Universally Exceed GDP Growth: Only Modestly in
OECD but Substantially in Emerging Markets
Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods &
Services
OECD
Emerging Markets
W. Europe
Asia Pacific
E. Europe & CIS
MiddleEast
Latin America
United States
Japan
China
India
Russia
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
GDP
Exports
Growth (2003-06)
Adjusted for Inflation
Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods & Services
Growth (Adjusted for Inflation)
% Growth % Growth ∆ (in Growth Rate)
GDP Exports GDP Exports GDP Export
(2003-06) (2000-03)
OECD 2.90 7.74 1.46 1.63 1.44 6.11
Emerging Markets 7.20 13.64 4.27 8.13 2.93 5.51
W. Europe 2.36 6.80 1.33 2.18 1.03 4.61
Asia Pacific 4.98 13.95 3.06 7.54 1.92 6.40
E. Europe & CIS 6.24 10.60 4.76 8.07 1.48 2.53
MiddleEast 5.55 8.84 2.87 4.43 2.69 4.41
Latin America 5.69 9.76 0.84 4.46 4.86 5.30
United States 3.48 8.28 1.62 -2.18 1.86 10.47
Japan 2.27 10.16 0.63 2.98 1.64 7.18
China 10.41 22.90 9.13 21.61 1.28 1.29
India 8.97 13.82 5.76 10.85 3.21 2.97
Russia 6.76 8.38 5.72 8.94 1.04 -0.57
15Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Asia
U.S. Trade in Goods, by Region. 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China&HK
OECDAsia
OtherAsia
Canada
EU-Big3
Africa
Mexico
RestofEU
(12)
LatinAm.
(exc.Mex.)
M.East
E.Europe&
CIS
OtherW.
Europe
BilUS$
Exports Imports
Exports $ 1,032 Bil.
Imports $ 1,873 Bil.
Net : $ -841 Bil.
16Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Mining,
Motor Vehicles & Textiles
U.S. Trade by Sector. 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MiningandQuarrying
MotorVehicles&Parts
Textiles&Apparel
Office&ComputingEquip.
CommunicationEquip.
PrimaryMetals
PetroleumRefineries
Wood&Furniture
Drugs&Medicines
Food&Beverages
FabricatedMetalProducts
SpecialtyChemicals
ElectricIndust.Machinery
PaperandPrinting
IndustrialChemicals
EnginesandTurbines
SpecialIndustr.Machinery
Professional&ScientificEquip.
Agriculture
Aircraft
BilUS$
Exports Imports
17Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
19181825141613.783.410. Special Industry Machinery
11167710911.883.811. Basic Industrial Chemicals
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD x
US
World
6
4
7
31
2
22
5
20
1
9
6
4
19
18
8
13
1
28
3
5
6
8
14
22
9
23
3
26
1
4
11.11
14.37
14.67
14.82
14.86
15.83
17.53
18.38
26.24
29.11
Growth
2003-07
(%)
6
7
8
31
2
25
5
18
1
3
6
7
8
28
5
20
2
18
1
3
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
200.26. Shipbuilding & Repairing
42.712. Electrical Industrial Machinery
93.09. Drugs & Medicines
152.88. Synthetic Resins
130.27. Railroad Equipment
106.55. Aircraft & Aerospace
11.24. Iron & Steel
250.83. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools
51.62. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals
61.81. Metals Mining
Share
in Total
Exports
(%)
Ranking in United States
Top Twelve Export Performers
By Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$)
Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Exports Growth?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)
18Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
259272011138.680.810. Wood Products & Furniture
1024211723209.471.811. Plastic Products
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
18
5
3
11
17
13
15
8
7
6
23
2
1
15
11
10
9
8
3
5
22
1
2
19
11
7
13
8
3
17
9.94
8.64
7.59
7.41
7.37
7.36
6.27
5.61
5.57
3.07
Growth
2003-07
(%)
16
5
2
12
20
13
8
10
9
6
22
2
1
17
18
8
10
7
5
9
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
50.56. Fertilizers & Pesticides
140.312. Electrical Appliances & Housewares
20.39. Agricultural Machinery
10.58. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers
248.77. Communications Equip. incl. Semiconductors
92.35. Paper & Printing
154.84. Computers & Office Equipment
43.63. Processed Food & Tobacco
34.02. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
112.11. Textiles, Apparel & Leather
Share in
Total
Exports
(%)
Ranking in United States
Weakest Twelve Export Performers
By Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$)
Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Exports Growth?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)
19Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
14141712121412.970.710. Rubber Products
23302529302812.400.111. Railroad Equipment
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
2
29
21
22
10
11
6
8
1
4
3
27
22
21
15
17
1
5
2
13
3
26
18
20
10
15
2
13
1
12
12.37
13.54
13.66
13.75
14.70
15.19
16.93
17.91
27.54
30.68
Growth
2003-07
(%)
3
29
18
22
11
7
5
8
1
2
4
26
19
20
10
8
2
7
1
3
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
160.86. Electrical Appliances & Housewares
122.012. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.
250.69. Cement & Construction Material
190.58. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools
151.77. Special Industry Machinery
210.85. Synthetic Resins
10.44. Metals Mining
93.23. Drugs & Medicines
22.32. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals
301.91. Iron & Steel
Share in
Total
Imports
(%)
Ranking in United States
Top Twelve Import Performers
By Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$)
Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Imports Growth?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)
20Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
2717272816209.242.910. Basic Industrial Chemicals
191681817119.462.511. Wood Products & Furniture
BRICSEU
Asia
Pacific
Emerg.
Markets
OECD
x US
World
6
4
15
9
14
1
12
5
29
7
4
1
21
7
9
2
6
8
22
25
4
1
24
5
10
2
9
3
26
23
9.49
8.38
8.37
7.56
6.50
6.18
6.12
5.20
2.54
1.20
Growth
2003-07
(%)
6
4
13
9
11
1
12
5
28
8
5
2
14
7
10
1
8
3
27
9
Ranking in Other Regions/Countries
51.46. Paper & Printing
61.612. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
10.19. Agricultural Machinery
252.78. Scientific & Measuring Equipment
123.27. Processed Food & Tobacco
30.25. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers
47.04. Textiles, Apparel & Leather
810.43. Motor Vehicles & Parts
260.12. Shipbuilding & Repairing
290.91. Aircraft & Aerospace
Share in
Total
Imports
(%)
Ranking in United States
Weakest Twelve Import Performers
By Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$)
Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Imports Growth?
(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)
21Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Service Sector Trade Credits & Debits
Trade in Services: United States
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Transportation
TravelServices
Communication
Construction
Insurance
Financial
IT&Computing
Licences&Royalties
Oth.BusinessServ.
Cultural&Recreation
Government
Bil.US$
Exports Imports
Net Trade in Services by Sector, U.S. & EU 15
2005
Overall Net
(US); 62.2
Overall Net (EU
15), 83.5
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Transportation
Insurance
Government
IT & Computing
Communication
Construction
Cultural & Recreational
Financial
Other Business Services
Travel Services
Licences & Royalties
Overall Net (US)
Travel Services
Licences & Royalties
Cultural & Recreational
Insurance
Government
Communication
Construction
Transportation
Other Business Services
IT & Computing
Financial
Overall Net (EU 15)
Bil. US$
22Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Growth in Service Sector Trade: U.S. versus EU-15
Annual Export Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15
2002-05
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Transportation
Travel Services
Communication
Construction
Insurance
Financial
IT & Computing
Licences & Royalties
Oth. Business Serv.
Cultural & Recreation
All Services (U.S.)
Transportation
Travel Services
Communication
Construction
Insurance
Financial
IT & Computing
Licences & Royalties
Oth. Business Serv.
Cultural & Recreation
All Services (EU-15)
Bil. US$
EU: 16.2%
U.S.: 9.3%
Annual Import Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15
2002-05
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Transportation
Travel Services
Communication
Construction
Insurance
Financial
IT & Computing
Licences & Royalties
Oth. Business Serv.
Cultural & Recreation
All Services (U.S.)
Transportation
Travel Services
Communication
Construction
Insurance
Financial
IT & Computing
Licences & Royalties
Oth. Business Serv.
Cultural & Recreation
All Services (EU-15)
Bil. US$
EU: 14.6%
U.S.: 10.8%
23Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
“Rest of World” (Ex. U.S.) Trade Surplus or Deficit in Manufacturing
Industries, as Share of Their Own Domestic Consumption
Ratio of ROW Net Imports as Share of Consumption
Engines&Turbines
Aircraft
ProfessionalEquip.
MetalsMining
IndustrialChemicals
EnergyMining
Aluminum&Oth.
Paints&Lacquers
AgriculturalMachinery
Agriculture
RailroadEquipment
Printing&Publishing
ToolingMachinery
LeatherProducts
Office&ComputingMach.
NonelectricalMachines
DrugsandMedicines
Food&Tobacco
PlasticProducts
PetroleumRefineries
ElectricalIndus.Machines
PaperandProducts
GlassandProducts
SpecialIndus.Machines
CleaningPreparations
IronandSteel
FabricatedMetalProd.
Motorcycles&Bicycles
WoodProducts
RubberProducts
Pottery&Earthenware
ElectricalMachinery
Textiles
FurnitureandFixtures
Communic.Equip.
ElectricalApparatusNEC
Appliances&Houseware
ShipBuilding&Repairing
MotorVehiclesandParts
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Ratio(NetImports/DomesticConsumption)
24Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Identifying Outlook Prospects Where U.S. has Trade Surplus with
Rest of the World
Large Medium Small
Fast
Aircraft & Spacecraft [13.4%] Railroad Equipment [0.2%]
Medium
Industrial Chemicals [2.9%]
Aluminum & Non-Ferrous Metals [1.0%]
Professional & Scientific
Equipment [8.3%]
Engines & Turbines [19.7%]
Slow
Agriculture [0.4%] Metals Mining [8.3%]
Paints & Lacquers [0.5%]
Agricultural Machinery [0.4%]
Industries Where U.S. has net Export Surplus with Rest of the World
Sector Size
RealGrowth(2003-'07)
25Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Identifying Outlook Prospects Where Rest of the World Has Trade
Surplus against the United States
Large Medium Small
Fast
Communication Equipment [-6.1%]
Electrical Machinery [-4.6%]
Nonelectrical Machinery [-0.8%]
Office & Computing Machinery [-0.8%]
Appliances & Houseware [-6.6%]
Electrical Apparatus [-6.1%]
Pottery, Ceramics & Earthenware [-3.6%]
Rubber Products [-3.6%]
Metal & Woodworking Machinery [-0.3%]
Medium
Fabricated Metal Products [-3.0%]
Iron and Steel [-2.4%]
Plastic Products [-1.3%]
Textiles [-4.9%]
Drugs and Medicines [-1.1%]
Ship Building & Repairs[-7.7%]
Soap & Cleaning Products [-2.4%]
Leather Products [-0.5%]
Slow
Motor Vehicles & Parts [-8.3%]
Paper & Products [-1.6%]
Electrical Industrail Machinery [-1.6%]
Petroleum Refineries [-1.3%]
Printing & Publishing [0.0%]
Furniture & Fixtures [-5.7%]
Wood Products [-3.6%]
Special Industrial Machinery [-2.2%]
Motorcycles & Bicycles [-3.0%]
Glass & Products [-2.0%]
Industries Where Rest of the World has net Exports to the U.S.
Sector Size
RealGrowth(2003-'07)
26Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc.
Thank you!Thank you!
Mark Killion, CFA
Managing Director
Prem Premakumar, Ph. D.
Principal/Senior Economist
World Industry Services
Global Insight, Inc.Global Insight, Inc.
Phone:610 490 2547 610 490 2525
email: mark.killion@globalinsight.com prem.premakumar@globalinsight.com

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WIS_PMAB_US Trade 09 2007

  • 1. Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place:Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place: “Effectively Identifying Market Opportunities” Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director World Industry Service Global Insight September, 2007
  • 2. 1Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Agenda Use Globally Harmonized Industry Benchmarks To Illuminate Market Sizing World Industry Service (WIS) Rank and Compare Industry Sales and Growth Profile of Exports and Trade Impacts on Industries from Trade For More Information see: www.Globalinsight.com/WIS
  • 3. 2Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. WIS World (72 Economies) [Share in World Output - Nominal US$] Asia Pacific (17) [26%] NAFTA (3) [34%] Latin America (13) [4%] Europe (25) [33%] West Europe (17) [29%] East Europe & CIS (8) [4%] Middle East & Africa (14) [ 3%] WIS Includes Industry Benchmarks for 72 Countries Note: Number of member Countries in ( ) Country & Regional Shares in [ ] Asia Pacific (17 Economies) [Share in Asia Pacific] OECD Asia [56%] – Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand Greater China [27%] – China, Hong Kong, Taiwan ASEAN 6 [8%] – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, VietNam South Asia [9%] – India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa [12%]
  • 4. 3Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Product Sectors 1. Agriculture – Farm, Forest & Fishing 2. Mining – Energy, Metals & Minerals 3. Manufacturing – Food, Beverages, Textiles, Wood, Paper, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Metals, Minerals, Industrial Machinery, Computers, Electronics, Autos, Shipping, Aircraft, Railroad, Scientific, Medical 4. Utilities – Power and Water 5. Construction – Commercial and Residential Services Sectors 6. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants, Hotels 7. Transportation, Storage, Communications 8. Finance, Insurance, Leasing, Real Estate, Computer Services, R&D, Business Services 9. Public Administration, Defense, Health Care, Education, Recreation WIS Includes 71 Industries, Grouped into 9 “ISIC” Categories Finance 24% Retail, Wholesale 14%Mining 4% Manufact- uring 19% Social & Personel Services 20% Transport, Storage, Commun- ication Services 7% Agriculture 3% Construct- ion 6% Utility 3% Sector Shares of World GDP (US$45 Trillion)
  • 5. 4Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Global Output (Value Added) of Goods & Services Service Sector Output Dominates Global Economy Global Output of Goods and Service Sectors OECD - Services 60% OECD - Goods 18% Emerg. Mkts - Goods 10% Emerg. Mkts - Services 12%
  • 6. 5Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Exports Are Typically More Volatile than Overall GDP (Percent Growth Rates) US and World Growth is Shaped By Trade Patterns Growth in Exports and GDP, United States -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AnnualGrowth Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($) Growth in Exports and GDP, World -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AnnualGrowth Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($)
  • 7. 6Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Annual Percent Growth of Sector Real Value Added -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AnnualGrowth(%) Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services Sector Composition of Macro Economic Growth WorldUnited States -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AnnualGrowth(%) Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services
  • 8. 7Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. -15 -5 5 15 25 35 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Electrical Machinery Computers & Electronics Aircraft “Higher” Tech “Lower” Tech Outlook for Key Manufacturing Sectors in the U.S. (% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales) Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service -15 -5 5 15 25 35 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Basic Industrial Chemicals Nonelectrical Machinery Food, Beverages & Tobacco
  • 9. 8Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. -5 0 5 10 15 20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Wholesale & Retail Communications Transport & Storage Transport, Trade and Communications Financial and Business Services Outlook for Key Services Sectors in the U.S. (% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales) Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service -5 0 5 10 15 20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Computer Software & Services Financial Institutions Business Services
  • 10. 9Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Real” Terms? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added) 910251022187.051.29. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip. 1612201721136.614.510. Communications 4646444747295.841.411. Commercial Research & Development BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 22 13 6 11 37 5 9 1 2 26 19 41 9 31 48 40 1 4 33 29 2 12 10 18 40 1 5 4.96 7.44 7.94 8.18 8.53 9.58 11.48 12.24 20.63 Growth 2003-07 (%) 20 14 1 11 7 5 9 26 2 23 16 3 9 7 12 20 2 1 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 120.16. Electrical Industrial Machinery 345.513. Retail Trade (Excl. Automotive & Gasoline) 181.98. Computer & Related Services 450.17. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools 350.55. Aircraft & Spacecraft 480.14. Agricultural Machinery 420.23. Special Industry Machinery 10.82. Computers & Office Equipment 44.71. Communications Equipment incl. Semiconductors Share in GDP (%) Ranking in U.S. Top Twelve Real Growth Performers By Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)
  • 11. 10Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Nominal” Terms? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in US$) 4850434747439.591.49. Commercial Research & Development 9396359.110.310. Basic Industrial Chemicals 61326916198.561.211. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip. BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 33 8 7 46 4 20 11 2 1 18 10 48 27 39 49 16 3 1 33 13 12 14 20 45 40 3 1 8.01 9.62 9.99 11.90 12.70 13.98 15.10 16.01 28.00 Growt h 2003- 07 (%) 30 11 2 17 7 42 13 6 1 29 8 9 15 11 34 14 2 1 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 400.56. Aircraft & Aerospace 231.912. Computer & Related Services 140.38. Cement & Construction Material 350.17. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools 430.15. Agricultural Machinery 494.74. Communications Equipment inc. Semiconductors 110.23. Special Industry Machinery 30.32. Iron & Steel 10.21. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals Share in GDP (%) Ranking in U.S. Top Twelve Real Nominal Performers By Growth Rate in Value Added (Nominal US$)
  • 12. 11Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Which Industries Were the Weakest in “Real” Terms? (Industry Ranking of 2000-2006 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added) 221723192191.102.39. Retail Trade: Automotive & Gasoline 1922113821.290.810. Recreational & Cultural Services 2624112820131.363.411. Construction BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 36 6 9 25 26 2 11 21 0 17 4 36 27 45 47 12 30 35 22 14 44 8 47 42 4 29 35 1.46 0.72 0.66 0.61 0.28 0.10 -1.30 -1.89 -2.71 Growth 2003-07 (%) 32 35 48 13 43 2 15 39 0 15 8 44 4 45 40 1 12 10 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 330.66. Wood Products & Furniture 270.112. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers 50.28. Metals Mining 90.17. Shipbuilding & Repairing 450.15. Rubber Products 470.04. Electrical Appliances & Housewares 130.93. Renting & Leasing of Machinery & Equipment 291.22. Motor Vehicles & Parts 390.41. Textiles, Apparel & Leather Share in GDP (%) Ranking in U.S. Weakest Twelve Real Growth Performers By Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)
  • 13. 12Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Share of Exports in GDP in the Emerging Markets Accelerated in 2000-06 (Inflation Adjusted Exports of Goods & Services as Share of GDP) Accelerated Export Growth in Emerging Markets in the Recent Past Trade as Share of GDP 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Percent(BasedonRealUS$terms) World OECD Emerging Markets United States
  • 14. 13Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Goods and Services Exports in OECD and Emerging Markets Trade in Goods Dominates Trade in Services Exports of Goods & Services in Developed Countries and Emerging Markets 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Mil.NominalUS$ OECD - Goods Emerging Markets - Goods OECD - Serv. Emerging Markets - Serv.
  • 15. 14Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Growth in Exports Universally Exceed GDP Growth: Only Modestly in OECD but Substantially in Emerging Markets Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods & Services OECD Emerging Markets W. Europe Asia Pacific E. Europe & CIS MiddleEast Latin America United States Japan China India Russia 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 GDP Exports Growth (2003-06) Adjusted for Inflation Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods & Services Growth (Adjusted for Inflation) % Growth % Growth ∆ (in Growth Rate) GDP Exports GDP Exports GDP Export (2003-06) (2000-03) OECD 2.90 7.74 1.46 1.63 1.44 6.11 Emerging Markets 7.20 13.64 4.27 8.13 2.93 5.51 W. Europe 2.36 6.80 1.33 2.18 1.03 4.61 Asia Pacific 4.98 13.95 3.06 7.54 1.92 6.40 E. Europe & CIS 6.24 10.60 4.76 8.07 1.48 2.53 MiddleEast 5.55 8.84 2.87 4.43 2.69 4.41 Latin America 5.69 9.76 0.84 4.46 4.86 5.30 United States 3.48 8.28 1.62 -2.18 1.86 10.47 Japan 2.27 10.16 0.63 2.98 1.64 7.18 China 10.41 22.90 9.13 21.61 1.28 1.29 India 8.97 13.82 5.76 10.85 3.21 2.97 Russia 6.76 8.38 5.72 8.94 1.04 -0.57
  • 16. 15Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Asia U.S. Trade in Goods, by Region. 2006 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 China&HK OECDAsia OtherAsia Canada EU-Big3 Africa Mexico RestofEU (12) LatinAm. (exc.Mex.) M.East E.Europe& CIS OtherW. Europe BilUS$ Exports Imports Exports $ 1,032 Bil. Imports $ 1,873 Bil. Net : $ -841 Bil.
  • 17. 16Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Mining, Motor Vehicles & Textiles U.S. Trade by Sector. 2006 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 MiningandQuarrying MotorVehicles&Parts Textiles&Apparel Office&ComputingEquip. CommunicationEquip. PrimaryMetals PetroleumRefineries Wood&Furniture Drugs&Medicines Food&Beverages FabricatedMetalProducts SpecialtyChemicals ElectricIndust.Machinery PaperandPrinting IndustrialChemicals EnginesandTurbines SpecialIndustr.Machinery Professional&ScientificEquip. Agriculture Aircraft BilUS$ Exports Imports
  • 18. 17Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. 19181825141613.783.410. Special Industry Machinery 11167710911.883.811. Basic Industrial Chemicals BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 6 4 7 31 2 22 5 20 1 9 6 4 19 18 8 13 1 28 3 5 6 8 14 22 9 23 3 26 1 4 11.11 14.37 14.67 14.82 14.86 15.83 17.53 18.38 26.24 29.11 Growth 2003-07 (%) 6 7 8 31 2 25 5 18 1 3 6 7 8 28 5 20 2 18 1 3 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 200.26. Shipbuilding & Repairing 42.712. Electrical Industrial Machinery 93.09. Drugs & Medicines 152.88. Synthetic Resins 130.27. Railroad Equipment 106.55. Aircraft & Aerospace 11.24. Iron & Steel 250.83. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools 51.62. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals 61.81. Metals Mining Share in Total Exports (%) Ranking in United States Top Twelve Export Performers By Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$) Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Exports Growth? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)
  • 19. 18Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. 259272011138.680.810. Wood Products & Furniture 1024211723209.471.811. Plastic Products BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 18 5 3 11 17 13 15 8 7 6 23 2 1 15 11 10 9 8 3 5 22 1 2 19 11 7 13 8 3 17 9.94 8.64 7.59 7.41 7.37 7.36 6.27 5.61 5.57 3.07 Growth 2003-07 (%) 16 5 2 12 20 13 8 10 9 6 22 2 1 17 18 8 10 7 5 9 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 50.56. Fertilizers & Pesticides 140.312. Electrical Appliances & Housewares 20.39. Agricultural Machinery 10.58. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers 248.77. Communications Equip. incl. Semiconductors 92.35. Paper & Printing 154.84. Computers & Office Equipment 43.63. Processed Food & Tobacco 34.02. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing 112.11. Textiles, Apparel & Leather Share in Total Exports (%) Ranking in United States Weakest Twelve Export Performers By Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$) Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Exports Growth? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)
  • 20. 19Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. 14141712121412.970.710. Rubber Products 23302529302812.400.111. Railroad Equipment BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 2 29 21 22 10 11 6 8 1 4 3 27 22 21 15 17 1 5 2 13 3 26 18 20 10 15 2 13 1 12 12.37 13.54 13.66 13.75 14.70 15.19 16.93 17.91 27.54 30.68 Growth 2003-07 (%) 3 29 18 22 11 7 5 8 1 2 4 26 19 20 10 8 2 7 1 3 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 160.86. Electrical Appliances & Housewares 122.012. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip. 250.69. Cement & Construction Material 190.58. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools 151.77. Special Industry Machinery 210.85. Synthetic Resins 10.44. Metals Mining 93.23. Drugs & Medicines 22.32. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals 301.91. Iron & Steel Share in Total Imports (%) Ranking in United States Top Twelve Import Performers By Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$) Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Imports Growth? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)
  • 21. 20Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. 2717272816209.242.910. Basic Industrial Chemicals 191681817119.462.511. Wood Products & Furniture BRICSEU Asia Pacific Emerg. Markets OECD x US World 6 4 15 9 14 1 12 5 29 7 4 1 21 7 9 2 6 8 22 25 4 1 24 5 10 2 9 3 26 23 9.49 8.38 8.37 7.56 6.50 6.18 6.12 5.20 2.54 1.20 Growth 2003-07 (%) 6 4 13 9 11 1 12 5 28 8 5 2 14 7 10 1 8 3 27 9 Ranking in Other Regions/Countries 51.46. Paper & Printing 61.612. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing 10.19. Agricultural Machinery 252.78. Scientific & Measuring Equipment 123.27. Processed Food & Tobacco 30.25. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers 47.04. Textiles, Apparel & Leather 810.43. Motor Vehicles & Parts 260.12. Shipbuilding & Repairing 290.91. Aircraft & Aerospace Share in Total Imports (%) Ranking in United States Weakest Twelve Import Performers By Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$) Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Imports Growth? (Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)
  • 22. 21Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Service Sector Trade Credits & Debits Trade in Services: United States 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Transportation TravelServices Communication Construction Insurance Financial IT&Computing Licences&Royalties Oth.BusinessServ. Cultural&Recreation Government Bil.US$ Exports Imports Net Trade in Services by Sector, U.S. & EU 15 2005 Overall Net (US); 62.2 Overall Net (EU 15), 83.5 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Transportation Insurance Government IT & Computing Communication Construction Cultural & Recreational Financial Other Business Services Travel Services Licences & Royalties Overall Net (US) Travel Services Licences & Royalties Cultural & Recreational Insurance Government Communication Construction Transportation Other Business Services IT & Computing Financial Overall Net (EU 15) Bil. US$
  • 23. 22Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Growth in Service Sector Trade: U.S. versus EU-15 Annual Export Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15 2002-05 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Transportation Travel Services Communication Construction Insurance Financial IT & Computing Licences & Royalties Oth. Business Serv. Cultural & Recreation All Services (U.S.) Transportation Travel Services Communication Construction Insurance Financial IT & Computing Licences & Royalties Oth. Business Serv. Cultural & Recreation All Services (EU-15) Bil. US$ EU: 16.2% U.S.: 9.3% Annual Import Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15 2002-05 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Transportation Travel Services Communication Construction Insurance Financial IT & Computing Licences & Royalties Oth. Business Serv. Cultural & Recreation All Services (U.S.) Transportation Travel Services Communication Construction Insurance Financial IT & Computing Licences & Royalties Oth. Business Serv. Cultural & Recreation All Services (EU-15) Bil. US$ EU: 14.6% U.S.: 10.8%
  • 24. 23Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. “Rest of World” (Ex. U.S.) Trade Surplus or Deficit in Manufacturing Industries, as Share of Their Own Domestic Consumption Ratio of ROW Net Imports as Share of Consumption Engines&Turbines Aircraft ProfessionalEquip. MetalsMining IndustrialChemicals EnergyMining Aluminum&Oth. Paints&Lacquers AgriculturalMachinery Agriculture RailroadEquipment Printing&Publishing ToolingMachinery LeatherProducts Office&ComputingMach. NonelectricalMachines DrugsandMedicines Food&Tobacco PlasticProducts PetroleumRefineries ElectricalIndus.Machines PaperandProducts GlassandProducts SpecialIndus.Machines CleaningPreparations IronandSteel FabricatedMetalProd. Motorcycles&Bicycles WoodProducts RubberProducts Pottery&Earthenware ElectricalMachinery Textiles FurnitureandFixtures Communic.Equip. ElectricalApparatusNEC Appliances&Houseware ShipBuilding&Repairing MotorVehiclesandParts -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Ratio(NetImports/DomesticConsumption)
  • 25. 24Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Identifying Outlook Prospects Where U.S. has Trade Surplus with Rest of the World Large Medium Small Fast Aircraft & Spacecraft [13.4%] Railroad Equipment [0.2%] Medium Industrial Chemicals [2.9%] Aluminum & Non-Ferrous Metals [1.0%] Professional & Scientific Equipment [8.3%] Engines & Turbines [19.7%] Slow Agriculture [0.4%] Metals Mining [8.3%] Paints & Lacquers [0.5%] Agricultural Machinery [0.4%] Industries Where U.S. has net Export Surplus with Rest of the World Sector Size RealGrowth(2003-'07)
  • 26. 25Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Identifying Outlook Prospects Where Rest of the World Has Trade Surplus against the United States Large Medium Small Fast Communication Equipment [-6.1%] Electrical Machinery [-4.6%] Nonelectrical Machinery [-0.8%] Office & Computing Machinery [-0.8%] Appliances & Houseware [-6.6%] Electrical Apparatus [-6.1%] Pottery, Ceramics & Earthenware [-3.6%] Rubber Products [-3.6%] Metal & Woodworking Machinery [-0.3%] Medium Fabricated Metal Products [-3.0%] Iron and Steel [-2.4%] Plastic Products [-1.3%] Textiles [-4.9%] Drugs and Medicines [-1.1%] Ship Building & Repairs[-7.7%] Soap & Cleaning Products [-2.4%] Leather Products [-0.5%] Slow Motor Vehicles & Parts [-8.3%] Paper & Products [-1.6%] Electrical Industrail Machinery [-1.6%] Petroleum Refineries [-1.3%] Printing & Publishing [0.0%] Furniture & Fixtures [-5.7%] Wood Products [-3.6%] Special Industrial Machinery [-2.2%] Motorcycles & Bicycles [-3.0%] Glass & Products [-2.0%] Industries Where Rest of the World has net Exports to the U.S. Sector Size RealGrowth(2003-'07)
  • 27. 26Copyright  2007 Global Insight, Inc. Thank you!Thank you! Mark Killion, CFA Managing Director Prem Premakumar, Ph. D. Principal/Senior Economist World Industry Services Global Insight, Inc.Global Insight, Inc. Phone:610 490 2547 610 490 2525 email: mark.killion@globalinsight.com prem.premakumar@globalinsight.com