The document discusses the advantages of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) in marketing mix modeling for better media planning, highlighting its ability to simulate consumer behavior more accurately than traditional regression methods. Thinkvine's ABM provides actionable insights, resulting in an average 28% increase in marketing-driven sales for brands. It emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer dynamics over time, budget allocation, and the cumulative effects of media on purchasing behavior.

1. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Learn
How
a
New
Kind
of
Marke1ng
Mix
Modeling
is
Be7er
for
Media
Planning
Mark
Ba7aglia,
CEO,
ThinkVine

2. WHAT IS
Agent-based Modeling?
A
proven
way
of
combining
data,
business
rules
and
analyEcs
to
re-­‐create,
gain
insight
into,
and
predict
complex
phenomena
by
simulaEng
the
behavior
and
interacEons
of
“agents.”

3. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
IN MARKETING MIX…
• The “complex phenomena”
is how consumers respond
to marketing, including
buying (or not buying) products
• Each “agent” represents
a person or a household

4. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
ABM has two advantages over
regression-based approaches:
• Population heterogeneity: takes into
account how people are different
• Change over time: includes how people
change over time including their price
sensitivity, awareness, etc.

5. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Each company’s agent-based model
is different
• Each
uses
different
data,
includes
different
markeEng
science,
does
different
calculaEons,
etc.
• The
differences
ma7er
both
in
terms
of
the
results
you
get
and
how
easy
it
is
to
get
them
For the rest of this deck, we’ll look at the advantages of
ThinkVine’s agent-based solution for media planners

6. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
6
MORE
ACTIONABLE
Consumer-­‐focused
More
granular
informa1on
MORE
ACCURATE
Includes
all
marke1ng
Forecasts
within
1-­‐2%
MORE
AGILE
Any
marketer
any1me
Collabora1ve
workflow
ThinkVine’s
ABM:
Key
Concepts
By applying ThinkVine’s agent-based modeling, brands have seen a
28% average increase in marketing-driven sales.
—
Study
of
ThinkVine
customers,
2013

7. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
“A
Week
in
the
Life
of
an
Agent”:
Media
Consump1on
7
HH
with
girl
aged
6-­‐10
Urban
area
Affluent
Frequent
Buyer
Buys
on
price
”Sophia”
(an
“agent”)
Time

8. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
“A
Week
in
the
Life
of
an
Agent”:
Purchasing
Behavior
8
Reached
by
Marke1ng
based
on,
markeEng
plan,
reach,
Eming
and
targeEng
62%
Experiences
a
Need
based
on
seasonality
and
purchase
frequency
62%
Chooses
Channel
based
on
channel
preferences
62%
Sees
Promo1ons
&
Prices
based
on
%
ACV
of
promoEon
and
relaEve
prices
86%
Makes
Purchase
probability-­‐
based
choice
of
a
brand
or
its
compeEEon
✔
Star1ng
Purchase
Probability
based
on
preference
and
effects
of
prior
media
39%
Probability
of
Purchase
of
a
Brand
”Sophia”
(an
“agent”)
Time

9. ©
ThinkVine.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Understand
what
budget
you
need
and
how
to
use
it
to
meet
sales
goals
and
achieve
other
objecEves,
such
as
leads,
new
customers,
and
lifeEme
value.
Achieve your objectives

10. Understand the cumulative effect of all media
on consumer purchasing behavior

11. -­‐
A7ribuEon
of
sales
volume
across
all
on-­‐line
and
off-­‐line
media
(pricing,
distribuEon,
etc).
-­‐
Short-­‐term,
long-­‐term,
marginal
and
normalized
ROI
by
media
type.
Quantify what works & what doesn’t

12. Establish the relative value of both
media types and campaigns

13. Identify the media mix that will drive the bestresults overall and for each consumer group

14. Take factors like seasonal cost of media,
cross-media reach and frequency into account

15. Easily get the information you need
Drill down to understand results along key dimensions
including consumer groups and timing

16. Accurately forecast how sales
will change when media plans change

17. Forecast the lift of new tactics
and from moving from pilot to scale

18. Gain a data-driven understanding ofmedia saturation by consumer group

19. Determine how long it takes to recoverif you “save” by “going dark”

20. Do your best work with software
that supports agile planning

21. And there’s more…
• Quantify the “halo effect”
of media across product lines
• Understand how competitive
campaigns affect preference for
your brand
• Incorporate the persuasiveness of
creative into forecasts

22. See
a
2
minute
video
overview
at
www.thinkvine.com
or
call
+1
(513)
842-­‐5900
Get better results
from your marketing mix.