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Who Knew Healthcare Could Be
This Complicated?
Cedric Dark, MD, MPH
Founder and Executive Editor, Policy
Prescriptions®
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Overall Plan
• Save $170 billion
• 20 million lose insurance
• Who knows what happens to
Medicaid?
Warning: Star Wars Memes Throughout
Photo by Kevin Dietsch - Pool/Getty Images
January 21, 2016
Sabotage
What is Congress up to?
Death Star By Powerpoint
Death. By Powerpoint.
What AHCA does…
• Eliminates individual mandate
• Changes to Individual Marketplace
• Changes to Medicaid
The Affordable Care Act
ACA Medicaid
Expansion
Obamacare
(Healthcare.Gov)
Everything Else
Medicaid changes in AHCA
• converts federal Medicaid funding into a per capita
cap, with a pre-set growth amount
• ends the enhanced federal financing for newly
eligible adults
• repeals the requirement that state Medicaid plans
cover essential health benefits
How much is getting taken away from the
individual marketplace?
$312,000,000,000
Socioeconomic Classes in America
• Poor
• Working Class
• Middle Class
• The Rich
• The Super Rich (The 1%)
1 out of 5 on Medicaid
Winners & Losers in AHCA
• Changes to the individual marketplace
– Winner: insurance more affordable for middle class
– Winner: insurance more affordable for young
– Loser: insurance more expensive for working class
– Loser: insurance more expensive older people
– Loser: the poor
Manager’s Amendment
Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Manager’s Amendment
• Allows for regular block grant as well as per capita
grants
• Allows for work requirement in Medicaid
• LimPhase out ACA taxes sooner
• If tax credit > premium, you lose the difference
Source: Associated Press
AHCA Left for Dead
The Freedom Caucus’ Demands
1. No essential health benefits
2. No community rating
The MacArthur Amendment
The MacArthur Amendment
• Keeps ACA’s market reforms:
– Prohibition on preexisting condition exclusions
– Prohibition on discrimination based on gender
– essential health benefits
– Guaranteed issue and renewability requirements
– Coverage of adult children up to age 26 on their parent’s plans
– Community rating, except as permitted by waiver
• Waivers:
– Allowed if: “reduce premium costs, increase the number of
persons with healthcare coverage, or advance another benefit
to the public interest in the state, including the guarantee of
coverage for persons with pre-existing medical conditions.”
What’s optional now?
Pre-existing conditions
• Can be waived if >63 day
lapse in coverage
• Allows for experience rating
• Premiums may spike
(surcharges)
Essential Health Benefits
• Can be waived
(1) ambulatory patient services
(2) emergency services
(3) hospitalization
(4) maternity and newborn care
(5) mental health and substance use
disorder services including behavioral
health treatment
(6) prescription drugs
(7) Rehabilitative services
(8) laboratory services
(9) preventive and wellness services and
chronic disease management
(10) pediatric services
How much more?
• Metastatic cancer $142,650
• Diabetes $5,600
• Rheumatoid Arthritis $26,580
• Heart attack $57,960
• Pregnancy $17,320
Obamacare dies…to thunderous applause!
Now onto the Senate
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
His grade after first semester as
President
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Rebates in Medicare?
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
Campaign Promises on Health Care
Donald J. Trump
• Repeal and Replace
Obamacare with HSAs
• Full deductions for health
insurance
• Block grant for Medicaid
• Insurance Across State
Lines
• Importing drugs from
overseas
• Price Transparency for
Providers
His grade after first semester as
President
Who Knew Healthcare Could Be
This Complicated?
Cedric Dark, MD, MPH
Founder and Executive Editor, Policy
Prescriptions®
¯_(ツ)_/¯

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Who Knew Health Care Could Be This Complicated?

  • 1. Who Knew Healthcare Could Be This Complicated? Cedric Dark, MD, MPH Founder and Executive Editor, Policy Prescriptions®
  • 2.
  • 3. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 4. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 5. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 6. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 7. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 8. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 9. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 10. Overall Plan • Save $170 billion • 20 million lose insurance • Who knows what happens to Medicaid?
  • 11. Warning: Star Wars Memes Throughout
  • 12. Photo by Kevin Dietsch - Pool/Getty Images January 21, 2016
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 18.
  • 19. Death Star By Powerpoint
  • 21. What AHCA does… • Eliminates individual mandate • Changes to Individual Marketplace • Changes to Medicaid
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. The Affordable Care Act ACA Medicaid Expansion Obamacare (Healthcare.Gov) Everything Else
  • 25. Medicaid changes in AHCA • converts federal Medicaid funding into a per capita cap, with a pre-set growth amount • ends the enhanced federal financing for newly eligible adults • repeals the requirement that state Medicaid plans cover essential health benefits
  • 26.
  • 27. How much is getting taken away from the individual marketplace? $312,000,000,000
  • 28.
  • 29. Socioeconomic Classes in America • Poor • Working Class • Middle Class • The Rich • The Super Rich (The 1%)
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. 1 out of 5 on Medicaid
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. Winners & Losers in AHCA • Changes to the individual marketplace – Winner: insurance more affordable for middle class – Winner: insurance more affordable for young – Loser: insurance more expensive for working class – Loser: insurance more expensive older people – Loser: the poor
  • 41.
  • 42. Manager’s Amendment Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
  • 43. Manager’s Amendment • Allows for regular block grant as well as per capita grants • Allows for work requirement in Medicaid • LimPhase out ACA taxes sooner • If tax credit > premium, you lose the difference
  • 46. The Freedom Caucus’ Demands 1. No essential health benefits 2. No community rating
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 51. The MacArthur Amendment • Keeps ACA’s market reforms: – Prohibition on preexisting condition exclusions – Prohibition on discrimination based on gender – essential health benefits – Guaranteed issue and renewability requirements – Coverage of adult children up to age 26 on their parent’s plans – Community rating, except as permitted by waiver • Waivers: – Allowed if: “reduce premium costs, increase the number of persons with healthcare coverage, or advance another benefit to the public interest in the state, including the guarantee of coverage for persons with pre-existing medical conditions.”
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. What’s optional now? Pre-existing conditions • Can be waived if >63 day lapse in coverage • Allows for experience rating • Premiums may spike (surcharges) Essential Health Benefits • Can be waived (1) ambulatory patient services (2) emergency services (3) hospitalization (4) maternity and newborn care (5) mental health and substance use disorder services including behavioral health treatment (6) prescription drugs (7) Rehabilitative services (8) laboratory services (9) preventive and wellness services and chronic disease management (10) pediatric services
  • 55. How much more? • Metastatic cancer $142,650 • Diabetes $5,600 • Rheumatoid Arthritis $26,580 • Heart attack $57,960 • Pregnancy $17,320
  • 57.
  • 58. Now onto the Senate
  • 59. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers His grade after first semester as President
  • 60. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 61. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 62. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 63. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 64. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 66. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers Campaign Promises on Health Care
  • 67. Donald J. Trump • Repeal and Replace Obamacare with HSAs • Full deductions for health insurance • Block grant for Medicaid • Insurance Across State Lines • Importing drugs from overseas • Price Transparency for Providers His grade after first semester as President
  • 68. Who Knew Healthcare Could Be This Complicated? Cedric Dark, MD, MPH Founder and Executive Editor, Policy Prescriptions®
  • 69.

Editor's Notes

  1. Repeal of ACA expected 20 Million lose coverage Unsure how expensive HSAs would be
  2. Cost: $100 Billion
  3. Cost and impact highly dependent on the method: Straight up block grant per-capita cap Money directly to beneficiary
  4. Savings: $10 Billion Happened in 2 states but no one entered; also permitted under Obamacare Signed State Laws Rhode Island was the first state to pass an out-of-state purchasing law, signed in 2008, to create a regional health insurance compact, similar to the design later authorized by the PPACA in 2010. Wyoming was the first state, in March 2010, to enact a signed law based on the free-market model but also including a multi-state compact related to federal health reform. Georgia, HB 47 - Signed into law May 2011, in the first state with a law drafted and passed since the federal Affordable Care Act became law.  Kentucky (HB 265 - Signed into law, 2012). Maine (HB 979 - Signed into law, 2011; effective date Jan. 1, 2014).  Good rebuttal by Margot Sanger-Katz: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/upshot/the-problem-with-gop-plans-to-sell-health-insurance-across-state-lines.html?_r=0
  5. Savings: $20 Billion
  6. Will it save money? At best 14-18% cost savings. Could impact half of the healthcare industrial complex. $3 trillion economy, half impacted, and 16% savings EQUALS $240 Billion
  7. January 21, 2016: Trump’s order states that federal agencies can grant waivers, exemptions and delays of “Obamacare” provisions that would impose costs on states or individuals. That language appears to be aimed squarely at undoing the law’s unpopular requirement that individuals carry health insurance or face fines http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/trump-executive-order-affordable-care-act/
  8. January 27, 2017: Trump administration wanted to cut ACA TV ads; backtracked when some all already been paid for by the Obama administration
  9. February 27, 2017: Trump meets with insurance executives
  10. January 31, 2017: Trump renegs on drug price negotiation in Medicare promise
  11. May 11, 2017: Trump threatens CSR payments
  12. March 7, 2017: The day after the bill was introduced, House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, slammed the bill as “Obamacare in a different form.” House Speaker Paul Ryan, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price worked to defend the bill, with Speaker Ryan even holding a PowerPoint presentation to explain the AHCA.
  13. March 7, 2017: The day after the bill was introduced, House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, slammed the bill as “Obamacare in a different form.” House Speaker Paul Ryan, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price worked to defend the bill, with Speaker Ryan even holding a PowerPoint presentation to explain the AHCA.
  14. Individual Market 3% Medicaid 20+% Medicare 17% ESHI 49% Uninsured 9%
  15. March 13, 2017: The Congressional Budget Committee released its report estimating that about 14 million more people would be uninsured next year if the original AHCA were enacted. In the next nine years or so, the number of uninsured would jump to 24 million more, according to the CBO.
  16. AHCA gets its financing from two areas – Medicaid and Obamacare Marketplace subsidies
  17. As an estimate to how many people are currently affected by Medicaid not being available to all “poor” people, 3 million fall into the Medicaid Gap
  18. Medicaid spend is $545 billion annually. So about a 15% drop off in funding per year. ----- Meeting Notes (5/18/17 22:58) ----- Reduce FMAP Rolling back expansion Getting rid of EHB
  19. 325M Americans >> 3% individual market >> 9.75M in marketplace $32,000 per person
  20. Premiums for 21 year olds go down $1200; premiums for 64 year old goes up $4,300. For working class people— (e.g. patient care tech) NET premium goes down $250 for 21-yr-old; up $12,900 for 64-yr-old For middle class people— (e.g. nurses) NET premiums drop by $3,650 for 21-yr-old; down by $700 for 64-yr-old Winner – rich, young people Loser – working class, old people
  21. Poor <$20K Working 20-40K Middle 40-100K Rich >$100K SuperRich >$350K
  22. Premiums for 21 year olds go down $1200; premiums for 64 year old goes up $4,300.
  23. Tax credits change. Far less for all people in the working class (especially the old beause credits were pegged to premiums) Something for people above 400% FPL.
  24. For working class people— (e.g. patient care tech) NET premium goes down $250 for 21-yr-old; up $12,900 for 64-yr-old For middle class people— (e.g. nurses) NET premiums drop by $3,650 for 21-yr-old; down by $700 for 64-yr-old Winner – middle class, young & middle aged people Loser – working class, older people
  25. Premiums for 21 year olds go down $1200; premiums for 64 year old goes up $4,300. For working class people— (e.g. patient care tech) NET premium goes down $250 for 21-yr-old; up $12,900 for 64-yr-old For middle class people— (e.g. nurses) NET premiums drop by $3,650 for 21-yr-old; down by $700 for 64-yr-old Winner – rich, young people Loser – working class, old people
  26. Medicaid cuts are not just on “new enrollees” or the “able bodied” but are mostly on the poor.
  27. ----- Meeting Notes (5/15/17 17:27) ----- Better as 4 slides with red boxes
  28. ----- Meeting Notes (5/15/17 17:27) ----- Better as 4 slides with red boxes
  29. ----- Meeting Notes (5/15/17 17:27) ----- Better as 4 slides with red boxes
  30. Individual Market 3% Medicaid 20+% Medicare 17% ESHI 49% Uninsured 9%
  31. Reconciliation Bill Regulatory changes Final bill with other changes
  32. March 20, 2017: A number of tweaks were made to the original legislation in an effort to muster votes.
  33. 1 States can apply for waivers to impose Medicaid work requirements make Medicaid recipients prove they are looking for work. 2 States receive a flat per-beneficiary payment for Medicaid recipients have the option to take a lump sum for Medicaid to allocate as they wish. 3 Every A.H.C.A. recipient gets a flat tax credit based on age – except, possibly, Americans between 50 and 64. 4 Obamacare taxes phase out in 2018 this year. 5 Medicaid allotments for older and disabled beneficiaries would grow at faster than the rate of medical inflation. (CPI-Med +1) 6 State politics in New York play no a small part in the Republicans’ health care plan. 7 If your tax credit was larger than your premium, you could save lose the difference. (story NYTimes) https://www.vox.com/2017/3/20/14993536/full-text-paul-ryan-managers-amendments-ahca
  34. March 24, 2017: At Trump's request, House Speaker Paul Ryan pulled the American Health Care Act (AHCA) off the floor moments before a scheduled vote.
  35. http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/31/15135868/freedom-caucus-aca-repeal-community-rating
  36. ----- Meeting Notes (5/15/17 17:27) ----- vader burned; new darth vader mask
  37. http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2017/04/20/a-new-attempt-emerges-to-bridge-gop-divisions-on-ahca/
  38. May 4, 2017: Republicans in the House of Representatives passed what they said was their plan to repeal and replace Obamacare, after several fits and starts, sending the measure to the Senate, where it is expected to be significantly revised. The bill passed the House in a narrow 217-213 vote. All Democrats opposed the bill.
  39. The bill maintains the requirement that insurers cover people with pre-existing conditions and forbids them from charging more based on a person's health. But it allows states to seek a waiver from those rules on a case by case basis. People with continuous coverage and pre-existing conditions will not be affected. Those in states that receive a waiver - and experience a lapse in coverage for two months - could face higher premiums. Waiver states will be required to implement high-risk insurance pools to help those that need coverage; the bill allocates $8 billion over five years to help underwrite those programs. States will be allowed to seek a waiver from the federal requirement that insurers cover 10 “essential” services in every health plan they offer. Under current law, mental health and substance abuse services, prescription drugs, preventive care, maternity care, emergency services and lab services are all deemed “essential” and must be included in every plan. http://abcnews.go.com/US/gop-health-care-plan-differs-obamacare/story?id=47205077
  40. Metastatic cancer $142,650 Diabetes $5,600 Rhuematoid Arthritis $26,580 Heart attack $57,960 Pregnancy $17,320
  41. Grade B+ Ends individual mandate, imposes surcharge for coverage lapse Ends Obamacare premium subsidies, offers tax credits instead Rolls back Medicaid expansion across 30 states Allows states to impose Medicaid work requirement Expands health savings accounts from $3400 to $6550 Allows states to waive federal "essential health benefits" requirement and set own standard https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/04/what-health-insurance-covers-could-change-dramatically-if-ahca-becomes-law/101289524/ http://abcnews.go.com/US/gop-health-care-plan-differs-obamacare/story?id=47205077
  42. Grade B Tax deductions available to more Americans, although smaller in amount.
  43. Grade C Per capita caps Manager’s Amendment bumped it up to A-
  44. Grade C Bill doesn’t address but Obamacare provision allowing sale across state lines still intact
  45. Grade F
  46. Grade F
  47. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-18/house-may-be-forced-to-vote-again-on-gop-s-obamacare-repeal-bill