The document summarizes trends in the US housing market and economy after the 2008 crash. It notes that high unemployment and distressed real estate markets will continue dragging down the economy for several years. While home prices and ownership rates remain low, apartment construction is increasing to meet pent-up demand from younger renters. The recovery is also slowing home price declines and foreclosures in hardest hit states like California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida. Overall, Americans will increasingly live as renters in urban areas of the South and West as the housing market and economy gradually improve.

1. After the Crash:
How and Where Will Americans Live?
Gene Tenberg, Principal
gene@ten-mountain.com

2. The Ugliness of US Housing Trends
While the causes are complex, the results are as undisputable as they are appalling: $6
Trillion loss in home equity, 16%+ UNDER-employment, poor availability of new
mortgage debt.
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3. Slowly Improving Economy -- Maybe
High unemployment and distressed residential and commercial real estate markets will
continue to serve as a drag on the US economy for the next several years.
The March 2011 report confirmed a
double-dip in home prices across much of
the nation. In addition to the National
3.2% Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs
— Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland,
Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis,
New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and
Tampa — all hit their lowest levels as
2.7% measured by the current housing cycle.
The 20-City Composite’s March 2011 level
is the lowest since March 2003. This
cycle’s peak for the 20-City Composite
was in July 2006. The index indicates
home prices are now more than 33%
below that level. -- May31st, Case Shiller
20 City Composite
WSJ, 6/2/11
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4. United States
Demographics
• We’re bigger at 308 million
• We’re more ethnically diverse
Population growth rate among the highest of
developed countries driven principally by
immigration. By 2050 1/5 Americana will be
an immigrant vs. 1/8 today.
• We’re older
Every state saw its population of individuals
45 and older grow during the past decade, as
the baby boomers age.
• We’re disproportionately
moving to the South
See graphic to the right from Pew Research
Center
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5. Fastest Growth in South and Central States
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6. Largest Housing Price Declines by State
Washington Michigan
Foreclosures: 3,613 (1 in 779 HUs) Foreclosures: 14,615 (1 in 311HUs)
Population: Amount / 2000:4,866,692 Population: Amount / 2000:9,295,297
Employment: Amount / Growth Employment: Amount / Growth
California
Foreclosures: 60,241 (1 in 223 HUs)
Population: 37,253,956/ 25.5%
Employment: Amount / Growth
Nevada
Foreclosures: 12,900 (1 in 88 HUs)
Population: Amount /
2000:1,201,833
Employment: Amount / Growth
Arizona
Foreclosures: 15,705 (1 in 175 HUs)
Population: Amount / 2000:3,665,228
Employment: Amount / Growth Georgia Florida
Foreclosures: 13,052(1 in 311 HUs) Foreclosures: 19,710(1 in 449HUs)
Colorado Population: 9,687,653/ 49.5% Population: 18,801,310/ 45.3%
Foreclosures: 4,791(1 in 452 HUs) Employment: Amount / Growth Employment: Amount / Growth
Population: 5,029,196/ 52.7%
Employment: Amount / Growth
Texas
Foreclosures: 11,018 (1 in 883 HUs)
Population: Amount / 2000:16,986,510
Employment: Amount / Growth
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7. How and Where will Americans Live?
• 3.4 Million of pent-up residential
demand driven by housing crash and
slow recovery.
• Falling home prices and recent memory
of crash is discouraging many would be
owners to consider ownership.
• Extremely tough credit standards make
getting a mortgage MUCH more
difficult.
• Apartment developers have gotten the
hint: multifamily permits are up 22% vs.
down 21% for single family homes.
• Various industry sources are forecasting
residential rent growth at 5% for 2011.
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8. About me
Mr. Tenberg served as one of the founding members of a real estate investment boutique
that controlled over $300 million in commercial transactions and delivered over $40 million
in profits to sponsors and institutional equity investors. Repositioning projects included
multiple portfolios of older rent-controlled inner city buildings and newer suburban
apartment complexes. The model leveraged 3rd party property management resources
while retaining origination, execution and asset management. For non-institutional investor
projects, the firm also provided property management services for its own account.
Extraordinary profits were driven by combining tax sheltered investment (principally via IRC
42 years old 1031) with short term holds, high leverage financing and tight operational controls.
Experience
• 8 years, real
estate investment In addition to nearly a decade of real estate experience, Mr. Tenberg brings over 10 years of
management operational leadership across technology intensive businesses. As a product manager at
• 3 years, civil several large enterprises like Avaya Communications and Silicon Graphics (SGI) he
engineering
• 5 years , product launched and transitioned multiple product lines. In one case he accelerated production
management migration in key strategic accounts by two years via specialized pricing, collaboration with
• 2 years , non- sales and direct negotiation with customers. In the early 90s, Mr. Tenberg moved back to
profit and
corporate Russia where he launched the first ruble denominated credit card. More recently he served
development as a CFO for an enterprise software company where he developed cost effective processes
Education to bring complex digital pen/paper products to dispersed medical professionals.
• MBA, Haas School
of Business, UC
Berkeley Mr. Tenberg was born in Kiev, Ukraine and has lived in the United States from an early age.
• BS, Civil He speaks fluent Russian and lives with his wife and two kids in Campbell, California.
Engineering, UC
Irvine
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