The document discusses different types of problems - simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic - and provides guidance on approaches for solving each type. Simple problems have clear cause-and-effect relationships, while complicated problems have less discernible relationships. Complex problems lack stable patterns and require experimentation. Chaotic problems change so rapidly they exhibit no patterns. The document recommends applying established practices for simple problems, increasing expertise and improving processes for complicated problems, and building relationships and experimenting for complex problems. It cautions against rigid thinking for any problem type.

1. Chaotic
Problems
WhatIsSuccess?
Watchfor
Makeadifference.Tomakeadifference:
Situation
We'reenteringanemergingmarket.Wehadonecompetitor,butsixmorehaveappeared.Thepublic
lovesus,butananalystreportcalledourconceptjunk.AcmeIncisabouttoreleasetechnologythat
couldmakeusobsolete,butwejustwon$5Minventurecapitalfunding.Howcanwesurvive?
Chaoticproblemschangesorapidlythatthey
exhibitnostablepatternsthatcanbemanaged.
TheWorldofExperimentation
&Learning
Respondin
themoment.
Seekguidance
fromexperts.
Spotpatterns
andseize
opportunities.
Helpothersshare
observations,learn,
andtakeaction.
HowToChange:
Discernwherestabilityispresent
andwhereitisabsentSomepeople
arerunningtowardsshelter(stability).
Othersarelyingonthegroundwhere
peoplecansteponthem(chaos).
WorktobringordertochaosDirect
emergencyresponseworkersto
moveinjuredpeopletoshelter.
Seizenewopportunitiesastheyarise
Createanadhocemergencyshelter
inaflatbedtruck
HelpfulQuestions:
Whatishappening?
Whatseemstowork?
Whatvaluesare
importanttome?
Certainty
ofsuccess
EgoTrips
Isuccessfullylaunchedan
internetbusinessduring
thedotcomboom,soIcan
leadanykindofstartup
brilliantly.
AddictiontoChaos
Ilovetherushof
workinginchaos,so
I’llinventchaoson
thejob.
TooManyCooksinthe
Kitchen
Ourfoundertoldusto
focusononearea,and
ourCEOtoldustofocus
onanother.Whatdo
wedo?
SolutionBecomesa
Problem
Icreatedanonline
forum,butsomany
peoplesignedupthat
thesystemkeeps
crashing.
Complex
Problems
WhatIsSuccess?
Watchfor
Changeissuccessfulwhenhabitualundesirablebehaviorsarereplaced
withdesirablebehaviors.Toachievedesirablebehaviors:
Problem
Wewanttoincreaseuseofbirthcontrol.We
couldembarkonapublicawarenesscampaign,
distributefreebirthcontrol,and/orrecruit
peopletoendorsebirthcontrol,and/orrecruit
trustedcommunitymemberstoendorsebirth
control.Whatwillhavethegreatestimpact?
Problem
Weneedagreementamongtengovernment
agencies,sevencompanies,fourteentribal
nations,andeightenvironmentalgroupsabout
howtousetheCuyahogaRiver.Howcanwe
createguidelinesthatallpartiescanendorse?
Complexproblemsdon’thaveeasyanswers.
TheWorldofExperimentation
&Learning
Build
relationships.
Alignpeople
aroundthegoal.
Experimentwith
differentsolutions.
Learnfromexperience
andadjustfutureplans.
HowToChange:
ProbeforPatternsWhatconditions
allowpeopletoinnovate?
SensePeoplethinkcreativelywhen
encouragedbytheirmanagerand
whenfailureisn’tpunished.
RespondCoachmanagersto
encourageexperimentation.
HelpfulQuestions:
Howcanwemake
senseofthis?
Whatisourpurpose?
Whatisimportanttous?
Howdoweknowwhat
isright?
Certainty
ofsuccess
Commandand
Control
Becreativenow!
Intolerancefor
Failure
Howcouldyou
screwthatup?
DeclaringSuccess
Prematurely/
Over-Controlling
We’llbecreative
everydaybetween
4and5pm.
Over-Simplifying
Theproblemis
Accountingsince
theycomplain
mostoften.Let’s
transferthem.
IncorrectBoundaries
Ourteamissolving
thefinancial
problem,sothere’s
noneedtoinvolve
Accounting.
What’s your
problem
Simple
Problems
Simple
Problems
Complicated
Problems
TheTried&TrueSeries:TrustedModels
thatStandtheTestofTime
Matchyourchangetechniquestothetypeofproblem
you'retryingtosolve
Kindsofproblems
WhatIsSuccess?
Watchfor
Everychangeisdesigned
tosolveaproblem.
Knowingwhatkindof
problemyouneedto
solvecanhelpyouchoose
therighttechniquesfor
yourchangeinitiative.
Changeissuccessfulwhentheundesirableeffectnolongeroccurs.
Tobesuccessful:
Cause
Bakeraddstoo
muchsalt.
Effect
Caketastes
salty.
Simpleproblemshaveeasilyseen
causeandeffectrelationships.
?
TheWorldof
Cause&Effect
TheWorldof
Experimentation
&Learning
TheWorldof Cause&Effect
Cause
Senderdidn'tcc
bossonemail.
Effect
Bossdoesn't
receiveemail.
Cause
Afterconsultingwiththe
softwaremanufacturer
andourinternalexperts,
wedeterminedhowto
reconfigureourservers.
Effect
Oursoftware
upgradeis
malfunctioning.
Cause
Ourusualbabysitter
isnotavailable,our
backupsitterisbusy,
andwebothhaveto
worklate.
Effect
Wedon'thave
anyonetopick
upourchildon
Thursday.
Publicizebest
practices.
Followbest
practices
Complete
actionitems.
Makeincremental
improvements.
HowToChange:
AssessFacts
Theprinterisjammed.
CategorizeFacts
Whentheprinterisjammed,
it’sgenerallyduetoapaper
feedproblem.
ApplytheAppropriate,
EstablishedBestPractice
Whenthere'sapaperfeed
problem,clearandreloadthe
paper.
HelpfulQuestions:
What'sthecorrect
procedure?
Arewedoingthings
right?
Canwedomoreofthe
same?
Howcanwemakeita
littlebetter?
Certainty
ofsuccess
CategorizationErrors
Isapaperfeed
problemcausingthe
jam?Isapart
malfunctioning?Or
somethingelse?
RigidThinking
Paperjamsonly
happenwhenusers
makemistakes.
Complacency
Ourprinterusually
works,sowhyworry
aboutthepaper
jams?
MakingSimple
ProblemsComplicated
Theprinterjamwas
causedbythe
interactionbetween
paperweightandink.
Complicated
Problems
WhatIsSuccess?
Watchfor
Changeissuccessfulwhenhabitualundesirablebehaviorsarereplaced
withdesirablebehaviors.Tobesuccessful:
Complicatedproblemshavecauseandeffectrelationshipsthat
arehardertodiscernthantherelationshipsinsimpleproblems.
TheWorldof Cause&Effect
Lettheexpertsrecom-
mendacourseofaction.
Increasethenumberofpeople
whocandiagnoseproblemsby
buildingexpertise.
Improveprocesses.
HowToChange:
AssessFactsOperatorssetproduct
specsandthemoldingmachine
executesthem.
AnalyzeOperatorssetparameters
correctly,butthemachineproduces
productsthataren'ttospec.
DevelopaSolutionthatAddresses
theRootCauseUpgradethe
moldingmachine.
HelpfulQuestions:
What'sthebestwayto
gatherandanalyzedata?
Whohasthenecessary
expertise?
Whattoolswillhelpus?
Whatguidelinesshallwe
create?
Certainty
ofsuccess
RigidThinkingby
Experts
Alowlyoperator
can’tpossiblysolve
thedefectproblem.
AnalysisParalysis
Let'sresearchfora
fewmoremonths
beforeweact.
DeclaringSuccess
Prematurely
Wecompletedour
actionplansowe’re
alldone.
NotInventedHere
Syndrome
HowcouldtheOslooffice
knowwhatwouldbe
helpfulinBeijing?
Adaptedfrom:
“ALeader’sFrameworkforDecisionMaking,”Snowden&Boone,2007.http://bit.ly/1Fmur7K
“ComplexChange:AnEmergingField,”Waddell,2014.http://bit.ly/1S8AEep
“ComplexSystems,TheoryofConstraints,andtheSearchforInherentSimplicity,”Holt,2010.http://bit.ly/1Fp9vKd
“ComplicatedandComplexSystems:WhatWouldSuccessfulReformofMedicareLookLike?,”Glouberman&
Zimmerman,2002.http://bit.ly/1HsLhp3
“ComplicatedorComplex–KnowingtheDifferenceisImportant,”Allen,2013.http://bit.ly/1L7hu30
“ExploringtheScienceofComplexity:IdeasandImplicationsforDevelopmentandHumanitarianEfforts,”Ramalingam
&JoneswithReba&Young,2008.http://bit.ly/1R15T9R
“FacilitativeLeadershipandCreativeProblemSolving:TwoToolsforHighPerformanceBusinessAnalysis,”Wilkins,
2011.http://bit.ly/1HftkFb
GettingtoMaybe:HowtheWorldisChanged,Westley,Zimmerman,&Patton,2006.
“LeanStartupintheEnterprise,BigVisibleSolutions,2012.http://bit.ly/1EhS7X6
“ReadingSituationalResponses,”Haskins,2009.http://bit.ly/1HsKO6z
“ThreeTypesofChangeforChangeNetworks,”Waddell,2010.http://bit.ly/1HsLad7
ThankstoGlendaEoyang,StephanieNestlerode,JeffWetherhold,AlfredoZangara,andothersforthoughtfulreviewsof
thiswork.
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complicated,complex,andchaoticproblem-solvingtools.
Complex
Problems
Chaotic
Problems
High
Medium
Low
None