This document provides predictions for major events and trends in 2017. It suggests that Donald Trump's presidency will bring uncertainty and change to the US. The Eurozone faces political instability as nationalist sentiments rise. China's economic troubles and currency adjustments may negatively impact other currencies like the Euro. Canada is expected to weather global volatility relatively well due to its stable politics and currency, though exports may not see as large a boost from the weak Loonie. Overall, 2017 is predicted to be a challenging year globally but one where Canada makes progress compared to its peers.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2017Jon Weaver
After reaching a new high in May, prices for single-family, re-sale homes drifted lower over the following four months. Then, in October, prices set new alltime highs again! The median price for homes gained 13.2% over last October. That's the eighth month in a row the median price for homes has been higher than the year before.
Prices Down Again in San Francisco - February/March Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
Prices for both single-family homes and condos/townhomes were down year-over-year in January across most districts in San Francisco. Median home prices dropped 13.1% compared to last January while condo prices fell 11.8%. However, home and condo sales were up 72.1% and 5.4% respectively due to increased lower-priced property sales. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their most recent meeting in February and mortgage rates have remained stable, around 4%.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
This document provides information on Lemonade Day's growth and targets for expanding to new cities. It shows maps and data on the total number of cities and populations in each state. There are sections highlighting new cities added in 2015, existing cities' market share, and the impact of Lemonade Day's learning management system. Key metrics include a 44% growth to 32 cities in 2015, over 1 million youth aged 5-18 exposed, and improved tracking of learners' experiences through the new online platform. The goal is to continue expanding Lemonade Day's reach to more communities across the United States.
This document provides an analysis comparing Las Vegas and Atlantic City as potential locations for Chuck's bachelor party. It discusses factors such as crime rates, weather, travel times, amenities and activities available. Overall it argues that Las Vegas is a significantly superior option as it is safer, closer, has more to do, and will be a more enjoyable location to celebrate Chuck's bachelor party.
The document summarizes a real estate market update seminar presented by Joshua Wilton of Weichert Realtors Princeton. It provides analysis of the local real estate markets through metrics like inventory levels, absorption rates, pending sales and price ranges. Town-by-town statistics on listings, pending sales and absorption rates are presented to give a picture of current market conditions locally.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Norma Walton, House rich or house poorNorma Walton
The document discusses the love-hate relationship many Torontonians have with the city's real estate market. It notes that while Toronto real estate is coveted internationally and investments in homes pay off, housing is increasingly unaffordable. Average home prices are over $1 million and $2.5 million in some neighborhoods. Predictions are that affordability will continue declining as monster homes and condos get built, forcing many out of the city. The author concludes that those wanting to stay must buy what they can afford or move farther out and invest in good transportation.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Nov-Dec 2017Jon Weaver
After reaching a new high in May, prices for single-family, re-sale homes drifted lower over the following four months. Then, in October, prices set new alltime highs again! The median price for homes gained 13.2% over last October. That's the eighth month in a row the median price for homes has been higher than the year before.
Prices Down Again in San Francisco - February/March Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
Prices for both single-family homes and condos/townhomes were down year-over-year in January across most districts in San Francisco. Median home prices dropped 13.1% compared to last January while condo prices fell 11.8%. However, home and condo sales were up 72.1% and 5.4% respectively due to increased lower-priced property sales. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their most recent meeting in February and mortgage rates have remained stable, around 4%.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
This document provides information on Lemonade Day's growth and targets for expanding to new cities. It shows maps and data on the total number of cities and populations in each state. There are sections highlighting new cities added in 2015, existing cities' market share, and the impact of Lemonade Day's learning management system. Key metrics include a 44% growth to 32 cities in 2015, over 1 million youth aged 5-18 exposed, and improved tracking of learners' experiences through the new online platform. The goal is to continue expanding Lemonade Day's reach to more communities across the United States.
This document provides an analysis comparing Las Vegas and Atlantic City as potential locations for Chuck's bachelor party. It discusses factors such as crime rates, weather, travel times, amenities and activities available. Overall it argues that Las Vegas is a significantly superior option as it is safer, closer, has more to do, and will be a more enjoyable location to celebrate Chuck's bachelor party.
The document summarizes a real estate market update seminar presented by Joshua Wilton of Weichert Realtors Princeton. It provides analysis of the local real estate markets through metrics like inventory levels, absorption rates, pending sales and price ranges. Town-by-town statistics on listings, pending sales and absorption rates are presented to give a picture of current market conditions locally.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Norma Walton, House rich or house poorNorma Walton
The document discusses the love-hate relationship many Torontonians have with the city's real estate market. It notes that while Toronto real estate is coveted internationally and investments in homes pay off, housing is increasingly unaffordable. Average home prices are over $1 million and $2.5 million in some neighborhoods. Predictions are that affordability will continue declining as monster homes and condos get built, forcing many out of the city. The author concludes that those wanting to stay must buy what they can afford or move farther out and invest in good transportation.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - January 2021Jon Weaver
- Home sales in San Francisco rose in December 2020 compared to the previous year, with single-family home sales up 52.6% and condo/loft sales up 59.7%. However, sales declined from November 2020.
- The median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.1% year-over-year to $1,582,000, while the median price of condos/lofts fell 8.2% to $1,100,000.
- Mortgage rates remained historically low throughout 2020, falling below 3% at some points, fueling increased homebuyer demand and refinance activity despite economic uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Mar-Apr 2017Jon Weaver
Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were down, year-over-year, for the fourth month in a row in February. After reaching record highs last October, due to a slew of $10MM+ sales, both the median and average price for homes in San Francisco have cooled off considerably. The median price for
homes in February was down 21.6% from last year, while the average price dropped 13.9%. Loft/condo prices were up slightly with the median price rising 2.9% and the average gaining 5.4%. Home sales popped for the fourth month in a row, rising 64.7%. Loft/condo sales, on the other hand,
were off 3.6%.
Greater Princeton Area Market Data May 21 10Ann Harwood
According to a survey by Fannie Mae:
- Most consumers still see homeownership as desirable for non-financial reasons like quality of life, though they are more cautious than before.
- While many renters plan to buy, most think it is now harder to get a mortgage than for previous generations.
- The vast majority see strategically defaulting on an underwater mortgage as unacceptable.
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
The document summarizes the real estate market effects of the new US tax bill. It notes that home sales in San Francisco plummeted 49.3% year-over-year in December while prices rose 31.7% for homes and 7.9% for condos. The tax bill eliminates or caps popular deductions for mortgage interest, property/income taxes which will significantly impact Bay Area homeowners who pay high taxes. The effects of fewer deductions on housing demand and prices are uncertain but the market will be closely watched.
It’s one thing to sell to customers—it’s another to negotiate with business partners, corporate lawyers and investors. In this Entrepreneurship 101 lecture, we discuss the art of the sale in depth and give tips and tricks on how you can succeed when negotiating with various stakeholders.
Key topics covered: Partnerships, corporate agreements and negotiating.
An identity theft ring was busted in Brown Deer, Wisconsin after being caught on surveillance video at a Kohl's store. The ring, based out of Detroit, had stolen over $20,000 worth of merchandise through a sophisticated scheme of obtaining credit reports, guessing security questions, and applying for credit cards. Their activities were observed by the Kohl's loss prevention supervisor, who notified police. A multi-agency investigation uncovered that the ring had been operating for 25 years and had stolen over $300,000 through credit, leasing vehicles, and fencing stolen goods. Ringleader Verita Hines-Flagg was sentenced to 5 years in prison.
Home Prices Resume Upward Trend - May/June Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped dramatically in May. They were up 53.5% from April and 48.3% year-over-year. The 304 home sales were the most for any month since 305 homes were sold in November 2004. Year-to-date, home sales are down 8.9% while condo sales are down 6.9%.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
Tips for making great PowerPoint presentationsFarhanaj Achol
The document provides tips for making good PowerPoint presentations including choosing fonts like Arial or Century Gothic, using large font sizes for titles and smaller sizes for body text, leaving proper spacing between elements, using consistent backgrounds, incorporating relevant icons from free sources, adding basic animations, and including a thank you slide at the end.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 19 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2016.Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. It lists the exchange rate for each day of the month. The rates fluctuate from day to day and month to month between roughly 17 pesos and 19 pesos per dollar.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. Each row lists the exchange rate for a single day of the month. Rates fluctuated throughout the months, ranging from around 17.2 to 19.2 units of the other currency for 1 US dollar.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 17 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 26 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
Domingo Lunes Martes Miércoles
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. Each row lists the exchange rate for a single day of the month. Rates ranged from a low of 17.1367 to a high of 19.1754 over the period shown.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 30 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
The document contains predictions from Saxo Bank analysts for the year 2016. Some of the key predictions include:
1) The Euro will rise against the US dollar to 1.23 by the end of 2016 as the US dollar peaks at the start of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hiking cycle.
2) The Russian rouble will be the best performing currency in 2016, rising 20% against the US dollar/euro basket as oil prices surge and geopolitical tensions ease.
3) Valuations of tech startups, known as unicorns, will be reduced by more than half as public markets refuse to pay inflated private market valuations, slowing venture capital funding.
4) Brazil will
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - January 2021Jon Weaver
- Home sales in San Francisco rose in December 2020 compared to the previous year, with single-family home sales up 52.6% and condo/loft sales up 59.7%. However, sales declined from November 2020.
- The median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.1% year-over-year to $1,582,000, while the median price of condos/lofts fell 8.2% to $1,100,000.
- Mortgage rates remained historically low throughout 2020, falling below 3% at some points, fueling increased homebuyer demand and refinance activity despite economic uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Mar-Apr 2017Jon Weaver
Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were down, year-over-year, for the fourth month in a row in February. After reaching record highs last October, due to a slew of $10MM+ sales, both the median and average price for homes in San Francisco have cooled off considerably. The median price for
homes in February was down 21.6% from last year, while the average price dropped 13.9%. Loft/condo prices were up slightly with the median price rising 2.9% and the average gaining 5.4%. Home sales popped for the fourth month in a row, rising 64.7%. Loft/condo sales, on the other hand,
were off 3.6%.
Greater Princeton Area Market Data May 21 10Ann Harwood
According to a survey by Fannie Mae:
- Most consumers still see homeownership as desirable for non-financial reasons like quality of life, though they are more cautious than before.
- While many renters plan to buy, most think it is now harder to get a mortgage than for previous generations.
- The vast majority see strategically defaulting on an underwater mortgage as unacceptable.
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
The document summarizes the real estate market effects of the new US tax bill. It notes that home sales in San Francisco plummeted 49.3% year-over-year in December while prices rose 31.7% for homes and 7.9% for condos. The tax bill eliminates or caps popular deductions for mortgage interest, property/income taxes which will significantly impact Bay Area homeowners who pay high taxes. The effects of fewer deductions on housing demand and prices are uncertain but the market will be closely watched.
It’s one thing to sell to customers—it’s another to negotiate with business partners, corporate lawyers and investors. In this Entrepreneurship 101 lecture, we discuss the art of the sale in depth and give tips and tricks on how you can succeed when negotiating with various stakeholders.
Key topics covered: Partnerships, corporate agreements and negotiating.
An identity theft ring was busted in Brown Deer, Wisconsin after being caught on surveillance video at a Kohl's store. The ring, based out of Detroit, had stolen over $20,000 worth of merchandise through a sophisticated scheme of obtaining credit reports, guessing security questions, and applying for credit cards. Their activities were observed by the Kohl's loss prevention supervisor, who notified police. A multi-agency investigation uncovered that the ring had been operating for 25 years and had stolen over $300,000 through credit, leasing vehicles, and fencing stolen goods. Ringleader Verita Hines-Flagg was sentenced to 5 years in prison.
Home Prices Resume Upward Trend - May/June Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped dramatically in May. They were up 53.5% from April and 48.3% year-over-year. The 304 home sales were the most for any month since 305 homes were sold in November 2004. Year-to-date, home sales are down 8.9% while condo sales are down 6.9%.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
Tips for making great PowerPoint presentationsFarhanaj Achol
The document provides tips for making good PowerPoint presentations including choosing fonts like Arial or Century Gothic, using large font sizes for titles and smaller sizes for body text, leaving proper spacing between elements, using consistent backgrounds, incorporating relevant icons from free sources, adding basic animations, and including a thank you slide at the end.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 19 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2016.Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. It lists the exchange rate for each day of the month. The rates fluctuate from day to day and month to month between roughly 17 pesos and 19 pesos per dollar.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. Each row lists the exchange rate for a single day of the month. Rates fluctuated throughout the months, ranging from around 17.2 to 19.2 units of the other currency for 1 US dollar.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 17 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 26 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
Domingo Lunes Martes Miércoles
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
This document contains a table showing the daily exchange rate of the US dollar against another currency from January to August of 2016. Each row lists the exchange rate for a single day of the month. Rates ranged from a low of 17.1367 to a high of 19.1754 over the period shown.
TIPO DE CAMBIO DEL DÓLAR DE ESTADOS UNIDOS 30 de AGOSTO de 2016 Tipo de cambio publicado por el Banco de México en el Diario Oficial de la Federación para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera pagaderas en la República Mexicana.
The document contains predictions from Saxo Bank analysts for the year 2016. Some of the key predictions include:
1) The Euro will rise against the US dollar to 1.23 by the end of 2016 as the US dollar peaks at the start of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hiking cycle.
2) The Russian rouble will be the best performing currency in 2016, rising 20% against the US dollar/euro basket as oil prices surge and geopolitical tensions ease.
3) Valuations of tech startups, known as unicorns, will be reduced by more than half as public markets refuse to pay inflated private market valuations, slowing venture capital funding.
4) Brazil will
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
The document provides an end-of-year summary and outlook for 2017 from an investment manager. It discusses:
1) Continued political turmoil and uncertainty in Europe that contributed to volatility in currency and bond markets.
2) Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates in 2017 and that Janet Yellen will not be reappointed as chair.
3) Anticipation that proposed US infrastructure spending and tax cuts under Trump will boost the economy and US dollar.
President Trump's election victory surprised markets. Interest rates rose sharply in response as markets anticipated less regulation, lower taxes, and stronger economic growth under Trump. However, nearly all forecasts predict more modest GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 rather than the 4% growth suggested by Trump. The future remains uncertain as Trump frequently tweets and singles out companies. Interest rates may soften in the first quarter but end the year only modestly higher than the start of 2017.
This economist has shifted their view on Spain's chances of remaining in the eurozone from 50% to 40%. Unemployment rates exceeding 25% have historically led countries to abandon fixed exchange rate regimes. No major institution forecasts a decline in Spanish unemployment by 2017, and growth below 2.4% has never created jobs in Spain. While Spain has endured high unemployment before, there was always hope for improvement; but with no growth forecast above 1.7%, hope may be lost by 2014, increasing the risk of Spain leaving the euro.
Blackwall partners 2 qtr 2016- transient volatility part iiiMichael Durante
This document discusses the state of the US economy under President Obama and the policies of the Obama administration. It argues that the economy has stagnated, with 95 million Americans not working, wages stagnant, and declining upward mobility. It attributes this to failed "socialistic" policies and excessive government intervention. The author argues the economy needs inspiration to return to growth and policies that worked previously to boost jobs, wages, home and family formation.
Q1 has been a challenging one for the US dollar. Economist Jeremy Cook looks at the global economic and political factors that can impact the dollar, and makes predictions that will be important for global companies to consider.
- The document summarizes the mid-year outlook from an investment firm. It discusses 5 major changes anticipated at the start of 2016 and analyzes how 3 have played out so far.
- It also analyzes the outlook for the US dollar, US earnings, equity recommendations, and fixed income positioning for the second half of 2016. Key sectors like healthcare and consumer discretionary are favored.
- The document lowers its gold price target range but remains neutral long-term. It suggests some commodities like agriculture could outperform due to Chinese economic changes. Select MLPs and REITs are viewed as opportunities.
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3Frank Ragol
Bill Gross provides a lengthy outlook on the current state of investment markets and the economy. He argues that after 35 years, the great bull market that began in 1981 is showing signs of ending, with asset prices reaching unsustainable levels. While declines may not be imminent, future returns will likely be low. Investors should recognize the current "sense of an ending" and shift to more defensive strategies focusing on income rather than capital gains to better weather the changing environment.
The document discusses the best markets to trade in 2021, including forex, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. For forex, the US dollar, euro, pound, and currencies tied to China and natural resources will be important. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and new coins may provide opportunities. Tech, electric vehicles, ecommerce, social media, and food/beverage stocks could perform well. Regulation and geopolitical events may impact various markets.
Topics discussed by Dr. Peter Linneman:
- Does it all come to an end if interest rates rise?
- Is a recession just around the corner? What warning signs should we look for?
- What does the new Administration and Congress mean for real estate and the economy?
- Audience questions
- And more!
- The document is Jeremy Grantham's shortest quarterly letter ever, consisting of brief notes to himself on various economic issues.
- Grantham expresses concern about the eurozone crisis and feels vindicated in his forecast of "seven lean years" for economic recovery due to high debt levels and financial incompetence.
- He also notes that developed economies have permanently slowed due to aging populations and overcommitment to older generations, leaving less resources for growth.
- In the US specifically, infrastructure and education have declined relative to other countries, threatening competitiveness, while inequality and social mobility have drastically worsened.
Jeremy Grantham provides a brief summary of key points in a short quarterly letter due to travel and client conferences. He notes the dire situation in the Eurozone and feels vindicated in his forecast of a multi-year economic slowdown due to high debt levels and financial incompetence. Additionally, developed nations face permanently slower growth due to aging populations and inadequate savings. The US specifically has declining infrastructure, education, and government effectiveness that threaten competitiveness. Grantham recommends avoiding lower quality US stocks but having a normal weight in global equities overall, tilting toward safety, and being willing to hold substantial cash reserves given long-term risks.
OXBOW ADVISORS APRIL 2017 MARKET COMMENTSKeys Oakley
The stock market’s movement in 2016 was most Unusual, Unpredictable, and downright Crazy compared to previous years. Between politics and economics, it was a classic case study of extremes...
- The US presidential election of Donald Trump was unexpected but may not lead to significant changes in policy due to constraints on implementing radical changes.
- Trump's economic proposals include tax cuts to boost growth, but the current global situation is different than in Reagan's time and tax cuts may not have the same effect.
- The world economy is now more complex and interconnected, influenced by events like conflicts in the Middle East, so outcomes are less predictable than in prior models and small decisions can have large impacts through amplification. Predicting the effects of Trump's policies is difficult in this new economic environment.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
1. Welcome to 2017: Here we go again!
Welcome to 2017 my friends. Will this be a safer year for celebrities? Will this be
the year Canada gets its economy back on track? (although the 4 cent hike in gas on
day 1 admittedly doesn’t seem all that promising for us) Will this be the year of The
Donald or do we simply Duck? As much as we all like to prognosticate and soothsay
(sounds like a couple of whacky witch doctor remedies), we can never really do much
more than make these guesses with a distinct personal bias flavouring our predictions.
While certainly true, I also think that there are always a few certainties which, while
perhaps not being prognostications on their own, can significantly influence the future
events in other realms. So, here are a couple to consider as we move into a brand
spanking new year.
I suppose we can’t ignore that 2017 will be the year of Mr. Trump, whether we
understand how it happened or what it might bring. Good or bad, this new regime will
bring change and that, I feel fairly certain, we can bet money on. Picking the specifics?
Well that moves us a little farther out the “odds of that happening” spectrum. Despite
this, I think we can probably safely assume that there will be a period of uncertainty that
we can all look forward to, either with anticipation or trepidation, depending on your
personal beliefs. I suppose we can, at a bare minimum, assume that volatility will, for a
while at least, keep a firm bid tone.
This new year will also bring with it the spectre of an equally unsettling political
period in the artificially created Eurozone. Legislating political love just seems to me to
be destined to failure. Sure, arranged marriages were always a part of the European
political scene ever since the Romans did their great northern and western tours (and
most likely well before that) of Europe, but they tended, even in those times, to be short
term patches to diverse political patchwork fabric. The various tribes of Europe, even
when they evolved to a more genteel “kingdom” structure, never got along terribly well
for any length of time. The defeated or the underdog state would chafe at the bonds that
gave another culture domination over them or even just gave another stronger partner
greater influence. Even if vows were spoken and children exchanged via marriage, the
underlying mistrust remained. The differences have always been too great, and the
roots of each culture too deep, to be eradicated by another countries ruler. This is the
fundamental undoing of the Eurozone. If they could all just be “Europeans” instead of
Germans, French, Greeks or whatever, within the union then the economic model might
stand a chance. However, for a continent that would be hard pressed to say they ever
went 100 years without a major war, this artificial union and the 68 years since the end
of the last war on the continent, make the probability of the warm and fuzzy end to this
story seem more Disney-like than realistic. With voters getting the chance to “Trump”
the Euro movement with major elections in Germany, France and assorted other states
this year, it is hard to see things improving anytime soon.
This brings me to China. By virtue of the sheer size of this economic behemoth, it
can rain down torment on many simply by making little changes. In this globalized
society, there is pretty much no such thing as being “self contained” anymore. Even
“Better Korea” allows for things to cross its border. So, when we hear of things like
China having major structural issues with its banking system or the flow of money out of
China, driven by fear and uncertainty, becoming almost epidemic to the point that
intervention is required to stem the fall of the Yuan, it is hard to feel that China will drag
us kicking and screaming back to economic nirvana. As mentioned above, even when
China does “little things” it can have big repercussions. Like Canada with the US, when
China sneezes, others catch bad colds, even if we missed hearing the sneeze itself.
One such sneeze that was announced at the end of 2016 (and seemingly missed by
most) was the announcement that the CFETS (China Foreign Exchange Trade System)
2. basket index was changing as of January 1. Usually these announcements are formal
and minimal impact to most. This time, however, I think the impact might be significant.
The number of currencies in the basket will rise from 13 to 24. This is being done for a
variety of reasons but the most compelling bit of information is the change in weightings
to the “original 13” members. When you see these changes, it is important to keep in
mind the absolutely massive amount of FX reserves that China has and how these
changes will impact the holdings of each. For the USD, the weighting falls from 26.4% to
22.4% of the total. Since they are adding currencies like Korean Won, South African
Rand and even Mexican Peso, this could create a material bid for these “lessor traded”
currencies during the adjustment period. Equally compelling, but perhaps more
impactful because it is already a vulnerable currency, is the reduction of Euro’s in the
basket from 21.39% to 16.34%. This wave of probable selling of Euro’s to match the
weightings will add considerable pressure to an already emasculated currency. This
might be the straw that breaks the camels back for the once mighty Euro. We could well
see parity flash before our eyes early in 2017 with the biggest political events yet to
come. Sure, they may have started to adjust already but I can’t help but think that
tossing out Euro’s will become more than an “adjustment” in the coming year.
Will all this uncertainty mean much of anything to this small open economy laying
prone along the northern borders of the 48 contiguous states? Well, while things may
not be ideal here, there seems to be a much better, or perhaps safer is a better word,
story to tell here. I fully expect to face the buffeting winds of panic as 2017 moves along
but on a relative basis, I feel that Canada will be a net winner if only because we are not
doing too much wrong to draw attention to ourselves. We may not be lighting up scale
on the “doing good things “ side of the scale but we probably will look good versus a lot
of others. The neutral do well when things are spinning madly. The Loonie in the 1.30’s
should be plenty weak for CDN exporters to the US to make money but it is not the
panacea it once was. A 30% discount to US looks good unless everyone else has been
discounted by 40% or 50% and that, I think, will prove to be the case. CDN producers
will not be able to look to the currency as a magic elixir. It certainly helps but it can’t be
relied on. I expect this to be a tough year but one in which we make structural progress
and perform, relative to our global peers, fairly well. It will not be a smooth ride but I
think the end of 2017 will leave us in a better place than the end of 2016 and that, under
the circumstances, will be a good result!
Have a happy and prosperous 2017!
R. Wayne Osborne
January 2, 2017