The weekly outlook document provides commentary on the macroeconomic environment and outlook for currencies, indices, and commodities. It summarizes that markets are relieved the Greek crisis is ending but that it highlighted issues in the Eurozone. US data and Janet Yellen's testimony will be key drivers this week. The report also notes that equity markets will watch US bank earnings reports and that commodities will remain sensitive to the US dollar and Chinese factors.

1. Weekly Outlook
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13th July 2015 by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Macro Commentary
That noise you can hear is the sound of a collective sigh of relief. But maybe it’s as much one of relief for the avoidance of
a Grexit, as it is relief that the whole sorry episode is coming to an end. The whole lot of them should hang their heads in
shame. No-one has come out well from this. The IMF finally is only now suggesting that Greece needs a debt restructure
otherwise it will be just like Groundhog Day again further down the line. The Eurozone has had a complete lack of
empathy for a country that is already experiencing crippling austerity, with youth unemployment at 60% and almost zero
prospect of being able to grow itself out of its economic chasm. Greece tried to meet fire with fire, but what was the
point in holding a referendum on whether to accept the creditors’ measures, only to agree less than a week later to a
deal that is even more stringent? Greece clearly needs significant structural reforms to its economy, but the ECB’s Draghi
says as much about the Eurozone economies almost every press conference. Through how this situation has played out
apparently Greece has lost around €4bn of tax revenue which will mean even more austerity. President Hollande had the
gall to say “it was a positive night for Europe”, I very much disagree. This has certainly not been Europe’s finest moment.
WHEN: Wed, 15th July, 1900BST
LAST: n/a
FORECAST: n/a
Impact: In the second half of 2015 anything that
Janet Yellen says will be pounced upon by the
market as a pointer towards when the Fed may
time its first rate hike. The two day Congressional
testimony gives the financial committee Senators
and Representatives the chance to grill Yellen. This
tends to be an event that moves markets and
traders of the US dollar and Treasuries will be
watching closely. Watch for comments on the
international events (Greece and China) being
dovish, whilst focus on the “transitory” Q1
weakness now being behind us and looking
forward to better growth being hawkish.
Must watch for: Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony
Key Economic Releases
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Tue 14th Jul 09:30 UK CPI 0.0% +0.1%
Tue 14th Jul 10:00 Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment 30.0 31.5
Tue 14th Jul 13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM ex autos) +0.5% +1.0%
Wed 15th Jul n/a Japan BoJ Monetary Policy
Wed 15th Jul 09:30 UK Unemployment (Average Weekly Earnings) 5.5% (+2.9%) 5.5% (+2.7%)
Wed 15th Jul 14:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) +0.2% -0.2%
Wed 15th Jul 15:00 US Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony n/a n/a
Thu 16th Jul 12:45 Eurozone ECB monetary policy and press conference 0.05% 0.05%
Fri 17th Jul 13:30 US CPI +0.1% 0.0%
Fri 17th Jul 15:00 US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 96.4 94.6
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1
US 10 year Treasury yield
N.B. Please note all times are BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters

2. Weekly Outlook
13th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
Reaction to the agreement between the Eurozone and Greece has been mixed. After initial uncertainty over the
weekend, in the wake of the deal, the euro has come under pressure once more. Furthermore, the risk improvement
seen in other markets (equities mainly and Eurozone sovereign bonds to a slightly lesser extent) has not really played out
in forex markets. Maybe this is a concern over the conditionality of the deal still in place, but the US dollar has
strengthened again. Perhaps it is something to do with the speech that Janet Yellen gave on Friday where she re-iterated
the potential for a rate hike in 2015. Amongst the forex majors, the Kiwi remains the runt of the litter at the moment at
least. The selling pressure may not be too bad today, but the underperformance of the Kiwi on Friday was rather telling.
The technicals remain weak, whilst the RBNZ talking the Kiwi lower is certainly adding to the pressure.
WATCH FOR: A batch of key US data will put focus squarely back on the US dollar. Retail Sales, Industrial
Production and CPI will be key for the dollar, but add in Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress and the
volatility will remain elevated. Sterling traders will certainly focus on UK CPI on Tuesday, whilst euro
traders will want to know how the front-loading of the QE program is progressing at the ECB presser.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The market is still unsure how to
react to Greece agreement
Outlook: Even though the euro has drifted
lower in the past few weeks, the bears have
never really felt in control. The very positive
reaction on Friday has maintained
something of an uncertain medium outlook,
which has exacerbated. I would still view the
pivot at $1.1050 as a barometer for a
positive outlook and a more negative on for
the medium term. It is interesting that the
Stochastics have turned decisively higher as
they have in March, April and May, each
time a precursor to a strong run higher.
NZD/USD
Watch for: Downtrend channel continues to
suggest Kiwi remains a sell into strength
Outlook: Since turning lower at $0.7740 in
April, the Kiwi has formed an extremely well
defined downtrend channel. This is where
the technicals marry up to the fundamentals
(the RBNZ continues to talk the Kiwi lower
with threats of further rate cuts). The
technical momentum indicators remain
strongly negative and any rallies are very
short lived before the selling pressure kicks
in once more. The falling 21 day ma is an
idea sell zone currently. Another bearish
candle on Friday suggests the rallies remain
short lived and further downside within the
trend channel is likely this week.
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FX Outlook
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3. Weekly Outlook
13th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Indices
Equity markets have been pulled from pillar to post during the Greece crisis, however (whisper it quietly) now we can all
start to put this behind us. The volatility has been enormous and there may be a period of settling down in the early part
of this week. However we can finally now turn attention back towards US data and also the nascent earnings season. The
big US banks release results this week and this will garner huge attention for Wall Street as the performance of a sector
that remains under pressure could be telling. With JPMorgan on Tuesday tending to be something of a barometer for the
sector we should get a sign very early on of performance. On Wednesday, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs report,
whilst on Thursday it is the turn of Citigroup. However the banks do not hold a monopoly this week with tech monster
Google also reporting. With the S&P 500 well off its all time highs and struggling to gain traction amidst the Greece
related volatility, earnings season has tended to be a traditional driver. With economic indicators having improved
through Q2 in the US this needs to show through on a corporate level. Try to look past the massaged earnings beats and
more for trends in the quarter on quarter figures for both earnings and (arguably more importantly) revenues.
WATCH FOR: As the volatility settles down, US banks earnings will be key for Wall Street. Don’t forget a
batch of key US data and also Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress too.
DAX Xetra
Watch for: Resistance comes in for the rally
at 11,636
Outlook: The incredible volatility seen over
the past few weeks which has thrown the
DAX all over the place may finally begin to
subside now, however on a technical basis it
has left the bulls looking to gain control. The
Stochastics buy signal suggests potential
upside. The falling 55 hour moving average
c. 11,375 capped the previous rally however
has been breached but the big resistance
comes in at 11,636 the June rally high. The
bulls will hope that all these gaps left are
seen as breakaway gaps (ie. not filled).
FTSE 100
Watch for: A close above resistance at 6700
is key for the medium term
Outlook: With three huge bullish candles
potentially turning into four, the outlook is
on the brink of a big turnaround again.
There is a key test of the old key support
which is now resistance around 6700 which
needs to be broken on a closing basis.
Momentum still suggests choppy trading
and a need for continued improvement in
the RSI to prevent another rally just being
sold into. This could be a pivotal week for
FTSE 100 on a medium term outlook. The
bulls need to continue to react positively.
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INDEX Outlook
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4. Weekly Outlook
13th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
The downward pressure on commodities due to recent dollar strength has been exacerbated by the impact of the huge
sell-off on Chinese equities. Quite how these two factors move in the coming weeks could have a significant bearing on
commodity prices. With Greece off the critical list, the focus will quickly turn back towards whether the Fed will hike
rates this year or not, with us data and Janet Yellen’s testimony likely to cause elevated volatility on gold and silver. The
International Energy Agency put pressure on the oil price, noting slowing global oil demand and massive oversupply that
could induce further price decline. Also an agreement over lifting Iranian nuclear sanctions will also do the same.
The core/peripheral Eurozone bond yield spread dramatically narrowed in the wake of the Greeks finally submitting a
proposal that could be considered seriously by the EU leaders. And so with the agreement coming through over the
weekend, the threat of contagion has been averted (for the time being at least). Bonds considered as safe havens have
seen their yields shoot higher with UK, US and German bonds all being shunned for relatively riskier plays.
WATCH FOR: Focus on the US data again with Retail Sales, Industrial Production and CPI all key for dollar
strength which will impact on commodity prices again. Yellen’s testimony will also impact on Treasuries.
Gold
Watch for: Continued downside pressure
for a decline towards $1143 support
Outlook: A key breakdown below $1170
support of the old range has not been
reclaimed and the market seems to have
accepted the breakdown now. Looking at
the technicals suggests a strategy of using
the rallies as a chance to sell as the gold
price should be falling back to re-test the
key March low at $1143. It has been a
strange drift lower with a lack of really
decisive selling, however it is this that is
giving the chance to sell. Needs above
$1187 to turn the tide.
WTI Oil
Watch for: A closing break below $56.50
still targets $49.50
Outlook: The technical downside target
from the top pattern that completed below
the old support at $56.50 remains $49.50.
Despite the fact that the oil price has been
consolidating (a near term base pattern has
failed) in the past week, the deterioration in
the momentum indicators and the state of
the moving averages suggest that the
medium term bears are in the box seat now
for a push lower towards the downside
target. If there is a rebound (and a small
base pattern) as an oversold technical rally
takes hold, the overhead resistance in at
$56.50 would be an ideal sell-zone.
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COMMODITIES & BONDS Outlook
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Weekly Outlook
13th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst