1. Weekly Outlook
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6th July 2015 by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Macro Commentary
This week the markets will still be feeling the legacy of the disappointing Non-farm Payrolls report. The fact that earnings
growth was flat for the month (meaning year-on-year data was once more around the 2.0% mark) will not have been lost
on the FOMC. This is a blow to the hawks that have been pushing for a rate hike in September and possibly even a second
in December. Going into the payrolls report, the market was around 50/50 on a rate hike by December (according to the
Fed Funds interest rate futures). This has now been pushed out with just a 47% chance. This means that it will more than
likely be into 2016 for the first rate hike. Furthermore, the market is now only pricing a 12% chance of a rate hike by
September. However, markets are rather volatile around these data points and there is a tendency to over-react. I still
have an expectation that the Fed will hike in December. There are plenty of reasons for the Fed not to hike in September,
first of all the lack of clarity over the impact of Greece on the Eurozone and potential contagion, the lack of wage growth,
and also the dovish tendency of the composition of Yellen and the FOMC. However I also think the committee will take a
view towards the end of the year that indicators may never be perfect and that it may be a case of its now or never.
WHEN: Wed, 8th July, 1900BST
LAST: n/a
FORECAST: n/a
Impact: Deciphering the timing of the Fed rate
hike is going to be a favourite game of speculators
in the second half of the year. In her meeting press
conference, Fed chair Yellen suggested the
committee remained dependent on the economic
data, but the minutes will add more meat to the
bones. This comes especially as members continue
to provide comments that suggest a hawkish tilt,
even though the “dot plot” suggests otherwise.
The US dollar will be reactive to the minutes with
any hawkish hints providing support. Treasuries
will also react, whilst Wall Street is still taking
hawkishness as a negative recently.
Must watch for: FOMC meeting minutes
Key Economic Releases
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Mon 6th Jul 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.3 55.7
Tue 7th Jul 05:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy + statement 2.00% 2.00%
Tue 7th Jul 13:30 US Trade Balance -$42.3bn -$40.9bn
Tue 7th Jul 15:00 US JOLTS job openings 5.35m 5.38m
Wed 8th Jul 13:15 UK Annual Budget n/a n/a
Wed 8th Jul 15:30 US Crude Oil inventories 2.4m
Wed 8th Jul 19:00 US FOMC meeting minutes n/a n/a
Thu 9th Jul 13:30 Australia Unemployment 6.1% 6.0%
Thu 9th Jul 12:00 UK BoE Monetary Policy 0.50% 0.50%
Fri 10th Jul 09:30 Canada Unemployment 6.8% 6.8%
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1
US 10 year Treasury yield
N.B. Please note all times are BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters

2. Weekly Outlook
6th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
Volatility around the dollar remains elevated due to the data dependent FOMC (not to mention Greece). However the
fallout from the last week’s disappointing Non-farm Payrolls report is yet to be fully played out due to the Independence
Day holiday last Friday. The dollar has been strengthening since the latest Fed meeting in mid-June however, the Payrolls
data seriously questions the viability of a September rate hike. However, quite how much weighting the market gives the
report remains to be seen, but we will find out this week with further key data points in the form of ISM Non-
manufacturing ad the Fed minutes. The stronger dollar has really impacted across the forex majors, with both the Aussie
and Kiwi continuing to suffer at multi-year lows, a corrective outlook on Cable, whilst consolidation resistances have
been breached on Dollar/CAD and Dollar/Swiss. The pivot level around $1.1050 against the euro remains a key
near/medium term barometer. The Greek referendum “No” victory has heightened volatility early on Monday but
nothing too significant yet, although the dust is yet to properly settle.
WATCH FOR: The dollar could receive a further boost on Monday if ISM Non-manufacturing is strong,
whilst the minutes of the FOMC meeting will be key as well. The breakdown on the Aussie suggests the
market is looking for a dovish RBA on Tuesday, whilst the Bank of England is likely to again stand pat.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The pivot level around $1.1050
remains key this week
Outlook: Aside from day to day volatility,
the euro has actually been holding up
remarkably well considering the uncertainty
surrounding the Greek referendum. The
pivot level around $1.1050 remains the key
medium term gauge of sentiment for me as
the momentum indicators have drifted back
but for now suggest the euro remains
rangebound (albeit near term corrective).
Preventing a retest of the range low this
week is support at $1.0820, with resistance
at $1.1280 holding back the bulls.
AUD/USD
Watch for: Closing below $0.7530 has ended
the consolidation range and opens downside
Outlook: For several months the Aussie has
been trading in a broad sideways range
above the key April low at $0.7530. However
on Friday on the announcement of weaker
than expected retail sales and an apparent
slowdown in the Chinese services sector, the
Aussie broke sharply below the key technical
support to take it to levels not seen since
May 2009. There is little major support now
until $0.7265 and with the momentum
indicators showing further downside
potential rallies will now be seen as a chance
to sell.
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FX Outlook
2

3. Weekly Outlook
6th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Indices
The Greek referendum result has heightened near term volatility, but it is interesting how the major global indices are
reacting around their key support levels, which are being tested and breached. The rally days are just not cutting the
mustard as the bears are increasingly in control and the outlook is under pressure. However, Alcoa announces Q2 results
on 8th July which unofficially kicks off earnings season for Wall Street and this could be crucial for equity markets. For
weeks, with little real domestic news to drive sentiment, the headlines have been filled with negativity surrounding
Greece and investors have subsequently taken a glass half empty view on the market. However, this week marks what
could be a significant change of emphasis for Wall Street. The US still needs to see proper earnings growth to catch up
with the valuation expansion. With recent economic data from the US suggesting a rebound in Q2, traders will want to
see evidence of this through earnings growth. Failure to do so could result in a continuation of the negative sentiment for
equities. Once any volatility surrounding the reaction to the Greek referendum subsides, the disappointing Non-farm
Payrolls report could give Wall Street a boost as it pushes back expectations of a rate hike. The FTSE 100 may begin to
focus more on Wall Street once more too, whilst the Eurozone indices remain driven by Greek developments near term.
WATCH FOR: Early selling pressure from the Greek referendum result but the ISM Non-manufacturing and
Fed minutes will also drive sentiment. Earnings season also unofficially begins with Alcoa on Wednesday
DAX Xetra
Watch for: The support at 10,800 remains
important
Outlook: Despite talk of opening several
percentage points lower in the wake of the
Greek referendum “No” result, the support
at 10,800 has remained intact. This remains
a key level technically being the June lows
and around the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the
big 8355/12339 bull run. Technically the
momentum indicators are corrective but not
excessively bearish and this does not point
towards imminent downside threat. A close
below 10,800 would be a key near/medium
term signal.
FTSE 100
Watch for: A close below 6520 would open
further downside
Outlook: With the rally falling over around
6650 last week, the breakdown of the key
support below 6700 was confirmed as FTSE
100 trades at a 6 month low. This makes the
outlook on the FTSE far more corrective
than other major indices such as the S&P
500 and even the DAX. The outlook for the
momentum indicators also suggests further
downside pressure is likely and that rallies
are now being sold into. The next key level
of support comes in around 6300.
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INDEX Outlook
3

4. Weekly Outlook
6th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
The gold price may be volatile on a near term basis around the Greece uncertainty, however, since the middle of June,
the traditional negative correlation to the US dollar is back in play. The same can be said of the relationship between the
dollar and silver (but less so of platinum). With key dollar driving data (ISM Non-manufacturing and FOMC meeting
minutes) this week, this negative correlation between the precious metals is likely to continue. The oil price has also
begun to suffer as the dollar has strengthened, but also on news of a 2.4m barrel inventory build and a surprise increase
in the Baker Hughes US oil rig count (by 12 rigs to 640). The key range low at $56.50 is breaking down on WTI now.
The yield spread between core/peripheral Eurozone sovereign debt has been a key indicator of the market’s perception
of the risk of contagion during the Greek “crisis”. The spread of Spanish (denoting the periphery) over German (core) 10
year has been gradually increasing for the past few months and a pivot around 1.40% seems to be an interesting gauge
now. A move back above 1.4% today in the wake of the referendum result suggests the contagion fear is elevated.
WATCH FOR: ISM Non-Manufacturing and FOMC minutes to drive dollar positioning and the negative
correlation with precious metals but also increasingly the oil price.
Gold
Watch for: Continued downside pressure
for a decline towards $1143 support
Outlook: Selling into strength on gold
continues to be a profitable strategy. The
near term rebounds have been unable to
find enough buyers to support and the
subsequent result has been continued
dips to lower levels to breach the range
lows. Ultimately gold is likely to retreat
for a test of the March low at $1143 but it
will not be a clean move. Timing is
everything with this gold chart with the
key resistances coming in at $1186 and
$1205.
WTI Oil
Watch for: A closing break below $56.50
implies $54.24 will be tested this week
Outlook: WTI oil has been in a sideways
consolidation since late April however, with
the worst weekly decline since mid–March
(when the bear market was still going) the
negative pressure is ramping up once more.
Technical indicators are increasingly calling
for further weakness and theoretically a
closing break below the range support at
$56.50 implies a target of around $49.50.
The initial support of the neckline of the old
base pattern at $54.24 is first on the
horizon, but the outlook now seems to be
deteriorating.
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COMMODITIES & BONDS Outlook
4

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Weekly Outlook
6th July 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst