Summary
Economy: Housing rebounds –starts
increase for first time in four months – Building
permits climb the most since fourth quarter
2015; Conference Board’s Leading Economic
Index climbs most since December
Fed Policy: Policy committee meets July 25-
26 – no change expected in interest rates
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology
show optimism ticking up last week
Strongest Sectors: Financials, tech,
materials, industrials and health care
Stronger GDP Data Suggests Resilient Economy
Summary
Economy: Second-quarter GDP improves to
2.6% assisted by increase in consumer
spending and export growth
Fed Policy: Yellen leaves rates unchanged/
suggests October start to portfolio reduction
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology
show leap in optimism
Strongest Sectors: Financials, tech,
materials and industrials
Summary
Economy: Housing Affordability Index drops
to lowest level in ten months – rising home
prices offset lower mortgage rates; Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort Index down for first time in
four weeks; jobless claims plunge, close to 44-
year low
Fed Policy: FOMC meets this week with rate
hike near certain
Sentiment: Demand for puts suddenly drops;
VIX hits two-decade low
Strongest Sectors: Materials, financials and
health care climbing in relative strength
Weekly Market Notes for August 14, 2017Sarah Cuddy
Summary
Economy: Consumer Comfort Index jumps to 16-year high; inflation data shows CPI rising at 1.7% year-over-year; wholesale prices (PPI) declined in July
Fed Policy: Weak inflation data triggers decline in expectations the Fed will raise rate again in 2017
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism excessive
Strongest Sectors: Financials remain near top in relative strength - long-term bullish indicator for stocks
Stronger GDP Data Suggests Resilient Economy
Summary
Economy: Second-quarter GDP improves to
2.6% assisted by increase in consumer
spending and export growth
Fed Policy: Yellen leaves rates unchanged/
suggests October start to portfolio reduction
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology
show leap in optimism
Strongest Sectors: Financials, tech,
materials and industrials
Summary
Economy: Housing Affordability Index drops
to lowest level in ten months – rising home
prices offset lower mortgage rates; Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort Index down for first time in
four weeks; jobless claims plunge, close to 44-
year low
Fed Policy: FOMC meets this week with rate
hike near certain
Sentiment: Demand for puts suddenly drops;
VIX hits two-decade low
Strongest Sectors: Materials, financials and
health care climbing in relative strength
Weekly Market Notes for August 14, 2017Sarah Cuddy
Summary
Economy: Consumer Comfort Index jumps to 16-year high; inflation data shows CPI rising at 1.7% year-over-year; wholesale prices (PPI) declined in July
Fed Policy: Weak inflation data triggers decline in expectations the Fed will raise rate again in 2017
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism excessive
Strongest Sectors: Financials remain near top in relative strength - long-term bullish indicator for stocks
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Summary
Economy: Upside surprises = June Jobs Report strong; ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices tick up; trade deficit narrows
Fed Policy: Yellen points to potential September drawdown in balance sheet
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism but short of levels considered excessive
Strongest Sectors: Those most closely tied to the economy; industrials, financials and material sectors exhibiting strongest RS
Summary
Economy: Economic data mixed - ISM Non-Manufacturing Index falls to lowest level of the year; July jobs data stronger than forecast
Fed Policy: G-20 inflation falls to lowest level since 2009; reduces odds of rate hike in fourth quarter
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism excessive
Strongest Sectors: Utilities, health care and telecom gaining in relative strength
Despite turbulences affecting the economy, listed companies, and investors’ confidence, the stock market of Vietnam has delivered an impressive gain during 2016. The unpredictable flows for funds, and the speed at which Vietnam’s economy and market earnings will grow amid great uncertainties, will determine the stock market’s movement in 2017.
Access to this presentation has been made possible through "Sao Bien. Room for Education", an Austrian-based non-profit organization and cooperation partner of Viet Dragon Securities.
Reprinted with the permission of Viet Dragon Securities. Not for US investors.
Summary
Economy: Industrial Production flat in May – up 2.2% year-over-year -- best since 2015; Regional Fed data points higher – Philly Index trending higher while NY Manufacturing Index jumps to the highest level since 2014
Fed Policy: Fed raised rates for the second time this year and the fourth hike in the cycle -- indicating one more rate hike before year end
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism but short of levels considered excessive
Strongest Sectors: Health care and financials and utilities move into top RS rankings
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Summary
Economy: Upside surprises = June Jobs Report strong; ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices tick up; trade deficit narrows
Fed Policy: Yellen points to potential September drawdown in balance sheet
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism but short of levels considered excessive
Strongest Sectors: Those most closely tied to the economy; industrials, financials and material sectors exhibiting strongest RS
Summary
Economy: Economic data mixed - ISM Non-Manufacturing Index falls to lowest level of the year; July jobs data stronger than forecast
Fed Policy: G-20 inflation falls to lowest level since 2009; reduces odds of rate hike in fourth quarter
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism excessive
Strongest Sectors: Utilities, health care and telecom gaining in relative strength
Despite turbulences affecting the economy, listed companies, and investors’ confidence, the stock market of Vietnam has delivered an impressive gain during 2016. The unpredictable flows for funds, and the speed at which Vietnam’s economy and market earnings will grow amid great uncertainties, will determine the stock market’s movement in 2017.
Access to this presentation has been made possible through "Sao Bien. Room for Education", an Austrian-based non-profit organization and cooperation partner of Viet Dragon Securities.
Reprinted with the permission of Viet Dragon Securities. Not for US investors.
Summary
Economy: Industrial Production flat in May – up 2.2% year-over-year -- best since 2015; Regional Fed data points higher – Philly Index trending higher while NY Manufacturing Index jumps to the highest level since 2014
Fed Policy: Fed raised rates for the second time this year and the fourth hike in the cycle -- indicating one more rate hike before year end
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology show optimism but short of levels considered excessive
Strongest Sectors: Health care and financials and utilities move into top RS rankings
We had a flattish last week with nifty moving up by 0.4%. This week is going to be heavy in terms of macro economic data points coming in both India & outside.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continue to point to robust and synchronized economic growth with the release of stronger-than-expected ISM surveys, German IFO business climate survey and Chinese Q2 real GDP growth data.
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Weekly Market Notes for July 24, 2017
1. Bruce Bittles
Chief Investment Strategist
bbittles@rwbaird.com
941-906-2830
William Delwiche, CMT, CFA
Investment Strategist
wdelwiche@rwbaird.com
414-298-7802
Please refer to Appendix – Important Disclosures
Rising Profits and Low Inflation Boosting Stocks Higher
The popular averages continued to pursue a slow and persistent track to new record highs last week. Stocks were supported by improving
second quarter earnings and by CFO reports of stronger top-line growth. The decline in the U.S.
dollar this year is an unexpected benefit to large-cap multinationals. The combination of
stronger economic growth, weak dollar and low and stable interest rates have caused upward
revisions in S&P 500 second quarter earnings growth from 8% to 10%. GDP growth for the
second quarter to be reported this week is anticipated to be in the vicinity of 2.50% to 2.70%.
That’s a significant improvement over the 1.4% economic growth reported in the first quarter.
The fact that inflation remains anchored is another unexpected bullish factor for stocks this
year. The Fed’s Open Policy Committee meets this week against a near perfect backdrop of
improving economic growth and little pricing pressure. The Consumer Price Index rose only
1.6% year-over-year, which is far short of the Fed’s 2.0% goal. As a result, the fed funds
futures market now suggests little chance of a September rate hike and less than a 40%
probability the Fed will raise rates in December. Given the likelihood that the Fed will continue
to pursue a strategy of a measured approach to monetary policy it is not surprising that the
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit a 23–year low on Friday. Low VIX readings suggest widespread
complacency but the super-low VIX reading is a mirror image of the measured pace of the
advance in stock prices in 2017. In the late stages of a bull market investors typically barge in
with the last of the sidelined cash causing volatility to jump and prices to rise rapidly for a period
of time. The slow steady grind higher in July argues that a final capitulation stage is somewhere in the distant future.
The technical indicators, on balance, suggest the intermediate-term trend of the stock market will continue higher. More than 400 issues hit new
weekly highs versus 300 the previous week and 200 early in July. New highs by the large cap averages were joined by new record highs of small-
and mid-cap indices and the NY Stock Exchange Composite. Over the very near term, however, the market could be vulnerable to a pullback
given that stocks enter the new week in an overbought condition. New highs by the S&P 500 last week and higher prices in eight of the last nine
trading sessions by the NASDAQ caused investor confidence to uptick for the first time in many weeks. The latest report from Investors
Intelligence (II) showed 57.8% bulls up from 50.0% the previous week and a drop in bears to just 16.7%, one of the lowest readings of the year.
The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed more bulls than bears for only the second time this year.
Additionally, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) reported a significant decline in the demand for put options (puts are bought by
investors expecting a market decline). This resulted in the overall CBOE 10-day put/call ratio to drop to 85%. Below 83% would trigger a caution
signal. The CBOE equity only put/call ratio remained in the caution zone for the second week in a row. The increase in bullish sentiment is not
seen as a threat to the intermediate-term trend of the stock market. Near term, rising bullish sentiment increases the odds of a short-term pullback
in the traditionally weak seasonal period of August and September.
Sentiment
Current Week Previous Week Indication
CBOE 10-Day Put/Call Ratio
Below 83% is bearish; Above 95% is bullish
85% 94% Neutral
CBOE 3-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio
Below 58% is bearish; Above 68% is bullish
56% 58% Bearish
VIX Volatility Index
Below 12 is bearish; Above 20 is bullish
9.36 9.51 Bearish
American Association of Individual Investors
Twice as many bulls as bears is bearish; 2X more bears than
bulls is bullish
Bulls:
Bears:
35.5%
25.8%
Bulls:
Bears:
28.2%
29.6%
Neutral
Investors Intelligence (Advisory Services)
55% bulls considered bearish/more than 35% bears is bullish
Bulls:
Bears:
57.8%
16.7%
Bulls:
Bears:
50.0 %
18.6%
Bearish
National Assoc. of Active Investment Mgrs. (NAAIM)
Below 30% is bullish; Above 80% is bearish
89% 90% Bearish
Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll Optimism Excessive Optimism Excessive Bearish
Ned Davis Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Optimism Excessive Optimism Bearish
Weekly Market Notes
July 24, 2017
Dow Industrials 21580
S&P 500 2472
Baird Market and Investment Strategy
Summary
Economy: Housing rebounds –starts
increase for first time in four months – Building
permits climb the most since fourth quarter
2015; Conference Board’s Leading Economic
Index climbs most since December
Fed Policy: Policy committee meets July 25-
26 – no change expected in interest rates
Sentiment: Indicators of investor psychology
show optimism ticking up last week
Strongest Sectors: Financials, tech,
materials, industrials and health care
2. Weekly Market Notes
Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 2 of 4
Source: StockCharts
RS Ranking RS
Current Previous Trend
Leaders: Diversified Banks; Regional Banks; Asset Management & Custody
Banks; Investment Banking & Brokerage; Life & Health Insurance;
Real Estate Services
Laggards: Retail REIT's
Leaders: Systems Software; Home Entertainment Software; Electronics
Components; Electronic Manufacturing Services
Laggards:
Leaders: Paper Packaging
Laggards: Gold
Leaders: Aerospace & Defense; Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks;
Airlines
Laggards:
Leaders: Managed Health Care
Laggards:
Leaders: Auto Parts & Equipment; Tires & Rubber; Casinos & Gaming;
Specialized Consumer Services
Laggards: Motorcycle Manufacturers; Advertising; Distributors;
Department Stores; General Merchandise Stores; Apparel Retail;
Specialty Stores; Automotive Retail; Homefurnishing Retail
Leaders: Independent Power Producers
Laggards:
Leaders:
Laggards: Oil & Gas Drilling; Oil & Gas Equipment & Services; Oil & Gas
Exploration & Production
Leaders:
Laggards: Drug Retail; Food Distributors; Food Retail; Brewers; Packaged
Foods & Meats
Leaders:
Laggards: Integrated Telecom Services
** Denotes Current Relative Strength‐Based Overweight Sectors
Telecom Services 10 10
Utilities 7 8
Consumer
Discretionary
6 6
Energy 8 9
Consumer Staples 9 7
Industrials 4 ** 2
Health Care 5 ** 4
Information
Technology
2 ** 5
Materials 3 ** 3
Financials 1 ** 1
Sub‐Industry Detail
3. Weekly Market Notes
Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 3 of 4
Appendix – Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions
expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained
from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are unmanaged common stock indices
used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is
not available.
Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the
United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and
those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with
the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws.
Copyright 2017 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated
Other Disclosures
United Kingdom (“UK”) disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK
and other countries for which Robert W. Baird Limited (“RWBL”) holds a MiFID passport.
This material is distributed in the UK and the European Economic Area (“EEA”) by RWBL, which has an office at
Finsbury Circus House, 15 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB and is authorized and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority (“FCA”).
For the purposes of the FCA requirements, this investment research report is classified as investment research
and is objective. The views contained in this report (i) do not necessarily correspond to, and may differ from, the
views of Robert W. Baird Limited or any other entity within the Baird Group, in particular Robert W. Baird & Co.
Incorporated, and (ii) may differ from the views of another individual of Robert W. Baird Limited.
All substantially material sources of the information contained in this report are disclosed. All sources of
information in this report are reliable, but where there is any doubt as to reliability of a particular source, this is
clearly indicated.
Robert W. Baird Group and or one of its affiliates may at any time have a long or short position in the
company/companies mentioned in this report. Where the Group holds a long or short position exceeding 0.5%
of the total issued share capital of the issuer, this will be disclosed separately by your RWBL representative upon
request.
This material is only directed at and is only made available to persons in the EEA who would satisfy the criteria of
being "Professional" investors under MiFID and to persons in the UK falling within articles 19, 38, 47, and 49 of
the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being
referred to as “relevant persons”). Accordingly, this document is intended only for persons regarded as
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Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and RWBL have in place organizational and administrative arrangements for
the disclosure and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research recommendations. Robert W. Baird
Group and or one of its affiliates may be party to an agreement with the issuer that is the subject of this report
relating to the provision of services of investment firms. An outline of the general approach taken by Robert W.
Baird Limited in relation to conflicts of interest is available from your RWBL representative upon request. Baird’s
policies and procedures are designed to identify and effectively manage conflicts of interest related to the
preparation and content of research reports and to promote objective and reliable research that reflects the truly
4. Weekly Market Notes
Robert W. Baird & Co. Page 4 of 4
held opinions of research analysts. Analysts certify on a quarterly basis that such research reports accurately
reflect their personal views.
This material is not intended for persons in jurisdictions where the distribution or publication of this research
report is not permitted under the applicable laws or regulations of such jurisdiction.
Investment involves risk. The price of securities may fluctuate and past performance is not indicative of future
results. Any recommendation contained in the research report does not have regard to the specific investment
objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. You are advised to exercise caution in
relation to the research report. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should
obtain independent professional advice.
RWBL is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the
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