During the week of October 20-24, 2014, gold futures fell for the second consecutive day amid rising equities, while palladium neared bear market territory. Oil prices showed fluctuations with Brent crude rebounding slightly after a significant drop, and copper remained under pressure due to global growth concerns. Economic indicators revealed mixed results, with U.S. industrial production rebounding unexpectedly, while housing market confidence declined.

1. 20 OCT – 24 OCT 2014
W E E K L Y
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures fell for the second straight day as gains in equities reduced demand for the precious metal as a haven. Palladium climbed after yesterday approaching a bear market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 1.9 percent, while European shares snapped the longest slump since 2003. U.S. housing starts gained in September after slumping a month earlier, government data showed today. Gold advanced for the second straight week amid global economic concerns.
Last week, the metal dropped to the lowest this year on the outlook for higher U.S. borrowing costs amid gains in the economy. Gold rebounded as the Fed signaled a worldwide slowdown may delay interest-rate increases. Prices slumped 8.4 percent in the third quarter as equities surged to a record. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to settle at $1,239 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Yesterday, the price dropped 0.3 percent. This week, futures climbed 1.4 percent.
The metal on Oct. 15 reached $1,250.30, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 11. On Oct. 6, gold touched $1,183.30, the1 lowest since Dec. 31.
Brent crude extended its rebound on speculation that a 25 percent drop from this year’s high was excessive. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after falling below $80 yesterday. Brent pared its fourth weekly loss.
Brent for December settlement increased 34 cents to end at $86.16 on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices touched a four-year low of $82.60 yesterday before closing up 0.8 percent. Prices are down 4.5 percent this week and 22 percent this year.
WTI for November delivery gained 5 cents to $82.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped below $80 yesterday for the first time since 2012 before ending up 1.1 percent. The futures are down 3.6 percent this week and 16 percent in 2014.
Brent traded at a premium of $4.10 to WTI for December on ICE, compared with a front-month spread of $4.39 at the end of last week.
Brent Crude Extends Rebound on Speculation Drop Excessive
Copper Still under Radar of Bears as Global Growth Concerns Remains.
Copper still under radar of bears as the global growth concerns remained on the top of agenda. On the economic front, a Federal Reserve report on Thursday showed industrial production in the U.S. rebounded much more than expected in September, after an unexpected drop in production in the previous month.The Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. surged by 1.0 percent in September after edging down by a revised 0.2 percent in August. A report from the National Association of Home Builders showed homebuilder confidence in the U.S. to have deteriorated notably in October, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropping to 54 in October after jumping to a nearly nine-year high of 59 in September. In a separate news, Society of Indian Automobiles Association (SIAM) release has shown that sales of two wheelers registering a sharp appreciation even the production of passenger vehicles increased sharply. The industry produced a total 2227140 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in September 2014 as against 1818753 in September 2013, registering a growth of 22.45 percent over the same month last year. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 407.55 per kg, down 0.35 percent. The prices have tested a high of Rs 408.65 per kg, and a low of Rs 404.5 per kg. COMEX Copper was trading at $ 2.97 per pound, down 0.04.
Gold Falls for Second Day on U.S., Europe Equity Gains.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Oct 21 7:30pm
Existing Home Sales
5.11M
5.05M
Oct 22 6:00pm
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.0%
6:00pm
CPI m/m
0.0%
-0.2%
8:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories
8.9M
Oct 23 6:00pm
Unemployment Claims
269K
264K
6:30pm
HPI m/m
0.4%
0.1%
7:15pm
Flash Manufacturing PMI
57.2
57.5
7:30pm
CB Leading Index m/m
0.8%
0.2%
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
94B
Oct 24 7:30pm
New Home Sales
473K
504K

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27050 26735 26470 27455 27760 28065
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
38130 37200 36000 39400 40500 41550
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed strength in whole
week, gave breakout of double bottom
pattern and test the resistance of
27500 but not able to maintains above
the resistance level of 38.2%
retracement. Now, if it able to
maintains above 27610 then next vital
resistance is seen near the
psychological level of 28000. Contrary
if it sustain below 27050 then next
support is seen around 26500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27650 for the target of 28050
with stop loss of 27000.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways movement and trades below
its important resistance level i.e.
39400. Now, if it sustain below 38000
then next support is seen in the range
of 37000-36000. On higher side 39500
is act as important resistance level for
it above which it may test the
psychological level of 40000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 37900 for
target of 36000, with stop loss of 39500.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
4940 4795 4665 5200 5375 5525
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
404.20 398.45 391.80 414.40 420.50 427.05
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed highly
volatile movement found resistance
around upper band and broke lower
band of triangle pattern but unable to
closed below it. Now, if it show
reversal from lower band then
immediate resistance is seen around
61.8% retracement i.e. 412 above
which it may test upper band of
triangle. On lower side psychological
level of 400 is act as strong support.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 5000 for the targets of 4800,
with stop loss of 5300.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed free
fall after breakout of its important
support level i.e. 5130 and also broke
psychological level of 5000 but unable
to close below it. Now, again if it
breaks support of 5000 and closed
below it then it is in weak zone and
may find next support around 4850. If
some correction occurs then 5200 is
act as immediate resistance for it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 404, with stop loss of 415 for the
targets of 395.
PIVOT TABLE

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