Wearables london - Reflections on 3 years as a Wearables analyst - James Hayward - IDTechEx

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Reflections on 3 years as a
wearables analyst
James Hayward
Senior Technology Analyst
j.hayward@idtechex.com
@jhayward__
James Hayward

What is “wearable technology”?
Define it?
Source: http://www.rdtaxsavers.com/articles/Wearable-Technology
Any new product based on
a scientific advancement
Any “new” electronic
products
Any electronic products
Too vague?
Too vague?
Too narrow
Any electronic products and
their surrounding ecosystem
Includes broader
trends and topics
Anything that is, could
be, is designed to be
worn on the body.

Sports analytics
Medical devices
Fitness hardware
Headphones
Hearing aids
SmartwatchesJewellery Apparel
E-textiles
Health/home/pet
insurance
Automotive
interfaces
VR, AR, MR
Consumer
electronics
Watch
Audio
Communication
Microprocessors
Energy storage
Sensors
Actuators
Manufacturing
Elite sports
Enterprise
Enterprise
Healthcare &
medical
Power management
Energy harvesting
IoT
Smart home
Big data
Aging population
ECG/EEG/EMG
Optical
Displays
EAPs
IMUs
Chemical/gas
sensors
PPEIndustrial
Flexible PCBs
Stretchable
electronics
Flexible
electronics
Automation
New user
interfaces
Diabetes
care
Cardiac
devices
Skin
patches
Motion
capture
Clinical trials
Hearables
Implantables
VDAs
Pollution control
Robotics
Diagnostics

Sports analytics
Medical devices
Fitness hardware
Headphones
Hearing aids
SmartwatchesJewellery Apparel
E-textiles
Health/home/pet
insurance
Automotive
interfaces
VR, AR, MR
Consumer
electronics
Watch
Audio
Communication
Microprocessors
Energy storage
Sensors
Actuators
Manufacturing
Elite sports
Enterprise
Enterprise
Healthcare &
medical
Power management
Energy harvesting
IoT
Smart home
Big data
Aging population
ECG/EEG/EMG
Optical
Displays
EAPs
IMUs
Chemical/gas
sensors
PPEIndustrial
Flexible PCBs
Stretchable
electronics
Flexible
electronics
Automation
New user
interfaces
Diabetes
care
Cardiac
devices
Skin
patches
Motion
capture
Clinical trials
Hearables
Implantables
VDAs
Pollution control
Robotics
Diagnostics
Markets
Components
Materials
Products
Technologies
Trends
/ megatrends

Google trends
for “wearables”
Google trends
for “wearable
technology”
Chart Source
Google trends Google trends
0
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
80
CES 2014
WTS 2014
Apple watch
announced
CES 2015
WTS
2015
CES
2017
CES 2016

IFI patents for
“wearables”
Google trends
for “wearables”
Google trends
for “wearable
technology”
Chart Source
Patent trends IFI claims
0
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
80
2004
CES 2014
WTS 2014
Apple watch
announced
CES 2015
WTS
2015
CES
2017
CES 2016

0
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
80
Total spend
Funding + M&A
IFI patents for
“wearables”
Google trends
for “wearables”
Google trends
for “wearable
technology”
Chart Source
Patent trends IFI claims
Funding & #deals IDTechEx

0
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
80
Enabling technology?
• Smaller electronic components
• Decreasing power consumption
• Improving energy storage
• New sensor/actuator systems
• New form factors (stretch/flex)
Etc.

0
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
80
• Electronic wristwatches (since 1970s)
• Music players (MP3, Walkman, etc.) >25 years
• Cardiac monitoring and pacing: >50 years
• Adoption of chest straps: ~2000 onwards
• First “smartphones”: late 1990s
Etc.
Incumbent products for
many years

Photo: KingWu, Getty Images

Image source: Warner Bros / Everett Collection
Wearables?

Total market outlook
10%
23%
11%

>40 different product types

Winners and losers across the ecosystem

Not necessary any
correlation with sales!
Ride that hype

The hype curve in (late) 2016
Fitness
trackers
Smartwatches
Basic
earphones
HRM in
elite sport
Exoskeletons
Skin patch
monitoring
Heated clothing
Augmented
Reality
EEG (beyond
medical use)
ECG Hearing Aids
Virtual
Reality
Not necessary any
correlation with sales!
Non-invasive
CGM
Smart
clothing
Biometric
earphones
Automated
immunity
E-textiles
Basic
watches
Closed-loop diabetes
management
• The “wearables” hype is over.
• From now on, sectors will be addressed individually
Smart
jewelry
Mixed
Reality

“As a technology analyst
… the fading hype is a
refreshing change, and
allows for a focus on the
key innovation and
adoption trends behind
wearable technology.”
18 December 2015

The fading hype affects some more than others
Critical effectLittle effect
Most companies with
wearable products
Strategic marketing/PR,
fundraising, etc. from these
companies
Wearable event
organisers
Co-located event
organisers (most of them)
Most of the value chain
for these products
Journalists/analysts
covering “technology”
(most of them)
Journalists/analysts
covering wearables
Companies launching
a “wearable” product
Call it something
different!
Some effect Large effect
Divisions of larger companies
set up to develop “wearables”

How it effects our business?
November 15-16,
2017
Santa Clara, CA, USA
May 10-11, 2017
Berlin, Germany Japan | Korea
IDTechEx.com/events

How it effects our business? IDTechEx.com/research

To conclude…
James Hayward
Senior Technology Analyst
j.hayward@idtechex.com
+44 1223 810 266
James Hayward
@jhayward__

Wearables london - Reflections on 3 years as a Wearables analyst - James Hayward - IDTechEx

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