Investor momentum in commercial real estate continues as transaction volumes grow, despite concerns about rising interest rates. Investors are taking on more risk by targeting secondary markets and value-added opportunities. In contrast, 2013 has been a year of consolidation for corporate occupiers focused on efficiency. Leasing activity has been mixed by market but is expected to increase in 2014 as the global economy improves.
The document provides an economics report summarizing key events in July 2012. It discusses positive gains in stock markets in Australia and the US despite ongoing concerns around a double-dip recession, slowing growth in China, and debt issues in Europe. While the US economy shows continued slow growth, China's GDP growth slowed further. Later in the month, the ECB president signaled a strong commitment to preserve the Euro. Domestically, inflation in Australia remains low and another interest rate cut is unlikely in the near future. The report maintains its end-year forecast for the ASX200 index.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a slowing but ongoing Fed bond buying program, and modest single-digit returns for stocks and bonds.
This is Western Union Business Solutions October edition of the global currency outlook, providing you and your business with invaluable market insight and visibility of key risk events.
The document provides an analysis and outlook for various global economies and financial markets in January 2014. Regarding the US, it summarizes that the Fed commenced a cautious tapering of bond purchases in December 2013 and expects similar gradual reductions going forward, with quantitative easing ending by late 2014. It also notes the Fed's commitment to keeping rates low for the foreseeable future. For the Eurozone, it discusses the ECB strengthening its forward guidance on keeping rates low and signals the ECB will maintain an accommodative policy stance as the domestic economy shows signs of recovery. However, further disinflation remains a risk.
Investor momentum in commercial real estate continues as transaction volumes grow, despite concerns about rising interest rates. Investors are taking on more risk by targeting secondary markets and value-added opportunities. In contrast, 2013 has been a year of consolidation for corporate occupiers focused on efficiency. Leasing activity has been mixed by market but is expected to increase in 2014 as the global economy improves.
The document provides an economics report summarizing key events in July 2012. It discusses positive gains in stock markets in Australia and the US despite ongoing concerns around a double-dip recession, slowing growth in China, and debt issues in Europe. While the US economy shows continued slow growth, China's GDP growth slowed further. Later in the month, the ECB president signaled a strong commitment to preserve the Euro. Domestically, inflation in Australia remains low and another interest rate cut is unlikely in the near future. The report maintains its end-year forecast for the ASX200 index.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a slowing but ongoing Fed bond buying program, and modest single-digit returns for stocks and bonds.
This is Western Union Business Solutions October edition of the global currency outlook, providing you and your business with invaluable market insight and visibility of key risk events.
The document provides an analysis and outlook for various global economies and financial markets in January 2014. Regarding the US, it summarizes that the Fed commenced a cautious tapering of bond purchases in December 2013 and expects similar gradual reductions going forward, with quantitative easing ending by late 2014. It also notes the Fed's commitment to keeping rates low for the foreseeable future. For the Eurozone, it discusses the ECB strengthening its forward guidance on keeping rates low and signals the ECB will maintain an accommodative policy stance as the domestic economy shows signs of recovery. However, further disinflation remains a risk.
Aranca Views | US Fed Rate Hike Potential Impact - A ReportAranca
Will the impending rate hike in the US trigger panic across global markets like last year? US Fed funds rate hike – the question is not ‘if’, but ‘when’ will it materialize. The only solace this time around is that the US Fed would intimate of any interest rate action in advance. A special article by Aranca that explores the issue.
The third quarter of 2016 saw positive gains in the stock market despite economic and political turmoil. The S&P 500 gained 3.31% for the quarter, while the Dow Jones and NASDAQ also saw gains. Investors remained concerned over interest rates and the upcoming presidential election. Looking ahead, key areas for investors to watch include interest rates, oil prices, the election, and overall market volatility in the fourth quarter.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and their impact on gold. It notes that the Fed has pumped a large amount of money into the financial system, causing banks to send excess reserves back through reverse repurchase agreements. It also summarizes comments from Fed Chair Powell signaling that the Fed will remain accommodative but sees inflation pressures as transitory. The document argues this perspective is out of touch with data showing ongoing increases in prices paid and received. It concludes that gold benefited from low real interest rates but may face challenges if the Fed continues its tightening cycle.
The document discusses the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It analyzes key economic indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation that the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy. Based on strong recent economic data, the document predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. It recommends overweighting investments in the United States due to its stronger economy relative to other countries and the divergence in monetary policies globally. The interest rate hike will impact asset classes differently, with stocks expected to perform well and commodities dipping as the dollar rises.
We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight
rate unchanged at 0.50% next week.
The Bank is likely to echo its recent statements that the downside risks to inflation have increased, leading to an overall dovish tone to the statement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. We expect the Bank to remain on the sidelines until 2019.
Recent fiscal and macroprudential policies have helped ease some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada, with last week’s new housing sector measures removing some of the downside risks from household imbalances.
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
- Upcoming inflation may benefit gold prices, especially if inflation persists longer than expected by central banks. Inflation expectations have risen significantly in recent months.
- The large US twin deficits could negatively impact the economy and support gold prices. The US current account and fiscal deficits have ballooned to record levels.
- While gold does not always rise when deficits increase, it has benefited in past periods when easy fiscal policy was accompanied by accommodative monetary policy, as is the case currently. The Fed intends to keep interest rates low to support economic recovery.
Another Step in Canadian Federal Pension RepairEmily Jackson
The document summarizes Canada's trade performance in Q1 2014. Key points:
- Canada registered its first trade surplus since 2011, fueled by record energy trade surplus that offset a non-energy trade deficit.
- Exports and imports contracted in Q1 due to weather impacts and a trucker strike, but net exports are expected to contribute to GDP growth.
- The weaker Canadian dollar and stronger U.S. and European growth are expected to boost Canadian exports, especially energy and machinery, through 2015. Transportation constraints remain a challenge for some sectors like agriculture.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Brian Nash presented on the uneven global recovery. The presentation discussed the global economic outlook, including expectations for stronger US growth led by consumption, moderate growth in China, and challenges in Europe. Central banks are becoming more aggressive in their monetary policies, with the ECB beginning a large quantitative easing program. Geopolitical risks and diverging monetary policies pose risks to the global economy in 2015.
Hopes and Fears for 2014 – February 2014JonGrant01
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook for 2014. It discusses concerns around another potential financial crisis due to unaddressed issues from the last crisis. It analyzes the economic situations and outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, China, and other emerging markets. Key risks mentioned include potential currency volatility, debt issues, deflation, unemployment, and slowing growth in China.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
Saxo Bank’s Yearly Outlook 2011, “Bubbles and bulls and bears.. Oh My!” out now, paints a somewhat sombre picture of the quality and depth of global economic recovery based on continued concerns about the debt burden of developed countries and the questionable ability of government authorities to manage them in the long term.
The document provides an overview of the gold market as of June 4, 2021. It covers inflation rates, federal debt levels, gold news and analysis, and the gold price and chart. Inflation unexpectedly surged in April to twice the Fed's target, which could pose upside risks to more persistent inflation if expectations become unanchored. Higher inflation would increase demand for gold as a hedge. However, gold may struggle if interest rates rise in response. The document analyzes factors that could keep inflation elevated and impact the gold market.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, and modest single-digit returns for bonds and stocks.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
Whats Ahead In 2012 - An Investment Perspective (Spring Update)scottmeek
The document provides an investment perspective and outlook for 2012 from BlackRock. Some key points:
1) The US economy is expected to continue modest growth in 2012, which should be enough to support further stock market gains.
2) Bond yields have risen but a significant bond bear market is not expected. Higher yields alone are not seen as an impediment to stocks.
3) Stocks had strong gains in Q1 2012 and further gains are expected for the year, though at a slower pace. Outperformance of US stocks and sectors focusing on free cash flow and dividends are recommended.
Aranca Views | US Fed Rate Hike Potential Impact - A ReportAranca
Will the impending rate hike in the US trigger panic across global markets like last year? US Fed funds rate hike – the question is not ‘if’, but ‘when’ will it materialize. The only solace this time around is that the US Fed would intimate of any interest rate action in advance. A special article by Aranca that explores the issue.
The third quarter of 2016 saw positive gains in the stock market despite economic and political turmoil. The S&P 500 gained 3.31% for the quarter, while the Dow Jones and NASDAQ also saw gains. Investors remained concerned over interest rates and the upcoming presidential election. Looking ahead, key areas for investors to watch include interest rates, oil prices, the election, and overall market volatility in the fourth quarter.
Financial Wealth Management benefits a basic knowledge of the current economic climate. Download this free report on the state of the economy, government, and how they affect YOU.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures and their impact on gold. It notes that the Fed has pumped a large amount of money into the financial system, causing banks to send excess reserves back through reverse repurchase agreements. It also summarizes comments from Fed Chair Powell signaling that the Fed will remain accommodative but sees inflation pressures as transitory. The document argues this perspective is out of touch with data showing ongoing increases in prices paid and received. It concludes that gold benefited from low real interest rates but may face challenges if the Fed continues its tightening cycle.
The document discusses the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. It analyzes key economic indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation that the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy. Based on strong recent economic data, the document predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. It recommends overweighting investments in the United States due to its stronger economy relative to other countries and the divergence in monetary policies globally. The interest rate hike will impact asset classes differently, with stocks expected to perform well and commodities dipping as the dollar rises.
We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight
rate unchanged at 0.50% next week.
The Bank is likely to echo its recent statements that the downside risks to inflation have increased, leading to an overall dovish tone to the statement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. We expect the Bank to remain on the sidelines until 2019.
Recent fiscal and macroprudential policies have helped ease some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada, with last week’s new housing sector measures removing some of the downside risks from household imbalances.
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
- Upcoming inflation may benefit gold prices, especially if inflation persists longer than expected by central banks. Inflation expectations have risen significantly in recent months.
- The large US twin deficits could negatively impact the economy and support gold prices. The US current account and fiscal deficits have ballooned to record levels.
- While gold does not always rise when deficits increase, it has benefited in past periods when easy fiscal policy was accompanied by accommodative monetary policy, as is the case currently. The Fed intends to keep interest rates low to support economic recovery.
Another Step in Canadian Federal Pension RepairEmily Jackson
The document summarizes Canada's trade performance in Q1 2014. Key points:
- Canada registered its first trade surplus since 2011, fueled by record energy trade surplus that offset a non-energy trade deficit.
- Exports and imports contracted in Q1 due to weather impacts and a trucker strike, but net exports are expected to contribute to GDP growth.
- The weaker Canadian dollar and stronger U.S. and European growth are expected to boost Canadian exports, especially energy and machinery, through 2015. Transportation constraints remain a challenge for some sectors like agriculture.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Brian Nash presented on the uneven global recovery. The presentation discussed the global economic outlook, including expectations for stronger US growth led by consumption, moderate growth in China, and challenges in Europe. Central banks are becoming more aggressive in their monetary policies, with the ECB beginning a large quantitative easing program. Geopolitical risks and diverging monetary policies pose risks to the global economy in 2015.
Hopes and Fears for 2014 – February 2014JonGrant01
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook for 2014. It discusses concerns around another potential financial crisis due to unaddressed issues from the last crisis. It analyzes the economic situations and outlooks for the US, Western Europe, Japan, China, and other emerging markets. Key risks mentioned include potential currency volatility, debt issues, deflation, unemployment, and slowing growth in China.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
Saxo Bank’s Yearly Outlook 2011, “Bubbles and bulls and bears.. Oh My!” out now, paints a somewhat sombre picture of the quality and depth of global economic recovery based on continued concerns about the debt burden of developed countries and the questionable ability of government authorities to manage them in the long term.
The document provides an overview of the gold market as of June 4, 2021. It covers inflation rates, federal debt levels, gold news and analysis, and the gold price and chart. Inflation unexpectedly surged in April to twice the Fed's target, which could pose upside risks to more persistent inflation if expectations become unanchored. Higher inflation would increase demand for gold as a hedge. However, gold may struggle if interest rates rise in response. The document analyzes factors that could keep inflation elevated and impact the gold market.
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2013. It predicts that the performance of markets will converge on a path of modest gains with increased volatility. In the first half of 2013, stocks took a bull path, commodities took a bear path, and bonds took a base path. However, in the second half the document expects the different markets to follow a similar, modest but volatile path. It summarizes key elements of the economic and market outlook, including continued 2% GDP growth in the US, a tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, and modest single-digit returns for bonds and stocks.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
Whats Ahead In 2012 - An Investment Perspective (Spring Update)scottmeek
The document provides an investment perspective and outlook for 2012 from BlackRock. Some key points:
1) The US economy is expected to continue modest growth in 2012, which should be enough to support further stock market gains.
2) Bond yields have risen but a significant bond bear market is not expected. Higher yields alone are not seen as an impediment to stocks.
3) Stocks had strong gains in Q1 2012 and further gains are expected for the year, though at a slower pace. Outperformance of US stocks and sectors focusing on free cash flow and dividends are recommended.
- Emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence as their currencies have depreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar in January 2014.
- The U.S. economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013, growing at an annualized rate of 3.2%.
- The economic performance of developing countries in the last quarter of 2013 was heterogeneous, with some facing currency pressures and others seeing stronger than expected growth.
This document provides an outlook and analysis of the global economic and financial market environment for 2015. It discusses several topics:
1) The US economy is expected to continue growing in 2015, supported by quantitative easing from other central banks like the ECB. However, the Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates in mid-2015 and there is uncertainty around further hikes.
2) The ECB is under pressure to embark on quantitative easing but there remains strong opposition from some members. QE may only occur if eurozone inflation falls below 0%.
3) The dollar is forecasted to remain strong in the first half of 2015 due to diverging monetary policies but could weaken in the second half if
This monthly briefing highlights that anaemic economic recovery is accompanied by tame inflation in developed economies; that GDP growth is stronger than expected in the United States and that currencies in some emerging economies are under pressure again.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
The document provides an overview and analysis of global investment markets in 2014 and perspectives on 2015.
The key points are:
- In 2014, the US stock market performed strongly while European and UK markets lagged. Emerging markets struggled overall but India and China saw gains. Commodity prices fell, hurting mining and energy stocks.
- Interest rates remained low globally due to ongoing disinflationary pressures. The author expects rates to stay low for longer than markets anticipate, particularly in the UK and Europe.
- Bond markets performed well in 2014 contrary to expectations of rising rates and underperforming bonds. The author's cautious macro outlook and expectation of low rates proved correct.
The document summarizes an investment outlook report from Goodbody Wealth Management for the second quarter of 2015. It finds that:
1) The euro area recovery is gaining momentum, driven by quantitative easing from the ECB, low oil prices, a weak euro, and improved economic forecasts.
2) Euro area equities are positioned to continue performing well due to both external factors benefiting exports as well as signs of sustainable recovery in the domestic economy.
3) While bond markets lack value, central bank actions globally should limit downside risks, and absolute return strategies may provide modest gains with similar risk levels.
The document discusses recent market trends and the relationship between two opposing forces - the "Bubble Chain" and the "Deleveraging Chain".
The Bubble Chain refers to rising asset prices driven by central bank liquidity, moving from government bonds to corporate credit to equities. However, a Deleveraging Chain is also occurring, shown through weakness in commodities, emerging markets, and gold. These two chains send inconsistent signals about the economy.
The document argues one chain will have to give way at some point, allowing for a realignment. It also analyzes gold's recent sharp decline, putting forward several hypotheses for what triggered it and what implications it could have. The author remains uncertain about which
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. Some key points:
1) Bernanke clarified the Fed's timeline for tapering QE, which removes the double benefit of QE and GDP growth. Markets may be range-bound or fall over the summer.
2) Interest rate increases pose a major risk to equities. Correlations between equities and bonds may shift to be positive rather than the current negative correlation.
3) Japan remains short yen and rates, and now adds a tactical long position in Japanese equities expecting a positive July. Short yen is the largest position.
4) China's vulnerability and potential for more stimulus are noted as
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. Some key points:
1) Bernanke clarified the Fed's timeline for tapering QE, which removes the double benefit of QE and GDP growth. Markets may be range-bound or fall over the summer.
2) Interest rate increases pose a major risk to equities. Correlations between equities and bonds may shift to be positive rather than the current negative correlation.
3) Japan remains short yen and rates, and now adds a tactical long position in Japanese equities expecting a positive July. Short yen is the largest position.
4) China's vulnerability to slowing growth and credit issues could impact
- Emerging markets have experienced weaker economic growth compared to developed markets in 2013.
- Emerging market equities have significantly underperformed developed market equities since 2010, with the underperformance accumulating prior to recent tapering talk.
- Within emerging markets, BRIC countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China have particularly underperformed the broader emerging market universe.
The document provides an economic and stock market outlook for 2019 from Robert W. Baird & Co. It discusses that stock market conditions are likely to improve in the second half of 2019 as a new cyclical bull market emerges. It notes that Federal Reserve policy will shift toward data dependency as interest rates approach a neutral level. Economic growth is expected to slow but domestic recession risk remains minimal, and unexpected productivity growth could provide a tailwind. Earnings growth may have peaked but expectations could drift higher with signs of global recovery. Bond yields are not likely to rise significantly absent renewed inflation or improved global conditions.
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook notes that global equity markets peaked in early April before falling sharply in May, as they had anticipated. While not compelled to reduce equity exposures, they recommend maintaining a neutral stance given ongoing economic and political uncertainties. They continue to favor U.S. equities over international ones, seeing the U.S. economy in better shape despite political uncertainty. Emerging markets have faced challenges from slowing growth and currency declines, but aggressive policy actions and cheaper valuations may provide a boost going forward. Markets are expected to remain volatile in this environment of uncertainties over the European situation, U.S. economy, and upcoming elections.
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook predicts continued uncertainty and choppy markets. While U.S. fundamentals remain relatively strong, political uncertainties could trigger recession. Emerging markets face slowing growth and currency declines but improving conditions may boost their economies and cheapen their equities. Investors face many questions over the summer including the durability of Europe's latest agreement and outcomes of the U.S. election, keeping markets volatile.
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook predicts continued challenges in global markets. While U.S. fundamentals remain relatively strong, political uncertainties could trigger recession. In Europe, serious issues threaten break-up scenarios and economic struggles persist in the U.K. and emerging markets. The investing environment remains difficult with many questions unanswered around the U.S. economy, European agreements, and upcoming elections. As a result, markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.
Similar to WE Family Offices - Investment Commentary 2013 (20)
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
The Impact of Generative AI and 4th Industrial RevolutionPaolo Maresca
This infographic explores the transformative power of Generative AI, a key driver of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Discover how Generative AI is revolutionizing industries, accelerating innovation, and shaping the future of work.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
WE Family Offices - Investment Commentary 2013
1. 1
Year-End Investment Comment
December 2013
2014 Asset Allocation
Fundamentally, our views have evolved but not dramatically changed from a quarter ago. Our
analysis does suggest that valuations have deteriorated in most areas, except for emerging
market equities. Yet, we feel more careful calling for caution, as the very forces that moved
markets in 2013 could very well continue to work their “magic” in 2014
Current Previous
December-2013 October-2013
CASH & CASH LIKE
Cash & Cash Like 1.0 0.0
FIXED INCOME
U.S. Fixed Income Inv. Grade (1.2) (1.0)
U.S. Fixed Income HY (0.3) (0.2)
EAFE Fixed Income Hedged (0.7) (0.3)
EM Debt (0.1) (0.6)
EQUITIES
U.S. Equities (0.4) (0.3)
EAFE Equities 0.3 0.9
EM Equities 0.0 0.0
ALTERNATIVES
RV Hedge 0.0 (0.2)
Event Driven 0.0 0.6
Global Macro (1.0) (1.0)
Directional Hedge (0.1) 0.0
Managed Futures (0.6) (1.2)
REAL ASSETS
MLP 0.2 0.2
Global REITS 0.3 (0.1)
Commodities (0.3) (0.8)
Asset Class Underweight Overweight
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(10.0) (7.5) (5.0) (2.5) 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Neutral
Note: This table depicts the current consensus opinion of WE Family Offices’ Strategic Investment
Committee regarding portfolio asset allocation. The portfolio asset allocation recommendations in
the table above are made by WE Family Offices LLC and not by Brunel Associates.
2. 2
2014 Investment implications
i. Higher than normal cash reserves remain warranted, both to dampen downward price
movements and provide ammunition for buying opportunities
ii. Fixed income investments appear most likely to disappoint for as long as they have an
exposure to interest rate risk. Thus, keeping duration to a minimum and tactically
allocating to: Investment Grade Munis, High Yield Munis, Emerging Markets and
Mortgage-Backed Securities
iii. Equity valuations do not appear to be cheap, tactical allocations to: European
Equities and Emerging Market Equities - Mexico, EM Consumer, Asia (ex-Japan) -
should be considered
iv. Trading strategies such as global macro and managed futures offer opportunities to
hedge certain portfolio risks, but they can be significantly whipsawed when markets
gyrate in a directionless manner. Caution continues to be prescribed regarding these
strategies and managers.
v. Income Producing Real Assets – MLPs – Though they may have suffered from the
perception that they were interest sensitive investments (as they are often bought for
income) their likely future exposure to the need to transport hydrocarbons from the place
they are extracted to the place where they are consumed should provide long-term
potential
vi. Illiquid strategies, may offer meaningful opportunities, specifically within the following
strategies: Distressed European assets, Distressed European real state, as well as
private market opportunities within the energy space
Market Summary (Year-End 2013)
Calendar year 2013 opened on a high note. As New Year's Day drew to a close, and after tense
negotiations the previous December, the U.S. Congress and White House struck a deal to
maintain the majority of the decade-long Bush tax cuts in exchange for a reversion to prior tax
rates on the nation's highest incomes. The revenue generated was not as noteworthy as the
psychological effect of eliminating a powerful political issue that had been a centerpiece of the
2012 presidential election. Once off the table, the Markets responded. Whether measured by the
first handful of days or the entire month of January, equities gave notice to a very good year. And
indeed, despite a few hiccups along the way, setbacks were relatively shallow, followed by new
records in the major indices confirming the broad based rally.
The first-half of the year was off to a quick start, leading to a superb first-quarter, the Dow Jones
and S&P 500's best showing of the 21st century. As we moved into spring and summer,
turbulence in the form of higher interest rates was the principal culprit of a swoon in stock prices.
By summer's end, the Market had become totally obsessed with Federal Reserve monetary policy
and whether a super accommodative stance would be peeled-back at all. The anticipation of a
reduction in bond purchases by the Fed coupled with geopolitical risks in late summer was enough
3. 3
for caution to reappear. However, selling spurts were limited to five-percent or less for the most
part, and for a second consecutive year, the Dow and S&P failed to witness a 10% correction,
rare indeed in the post WW II era.
The second-half was punctuated by the Fed's surprise decision not to begin tapering its stimulus
package due to economic uncertainty and uneasiness with Washington politics. That combination
appeared less threatening as year-end approached. For even though the federal government did
suffer through a partial shutdown, the residual effects mostly proved to be minimal, thus closing
the fourth-quarter on seemingly stronger footing than was the case on October 1st at the
beginning of the said shutdown.
Across the pond, European bourses picked-up steam in the spring after a slow start to the year.
The catalyst, as had been the case since the global crisis, was the European Central Bank
reducing the overnight cost of money in the face of the Continent's hard recession. This in turn
was followed several months later by a second cut after a sharp decline in headline inflation. The
bright spot was by the time the ECB cut rates a second time, the economy was officially out of
recession and stabilizing, though growth remained very uneven throughout the Euro-zone. Over
in the United Kingdom, the year opened literally in identical fashion, but began to show signs of
recovery sooner, thus helping both its equities and currency as the year progressed.
Japan was off-the-charts for a while in 2013, the full effects of a new prime minister stirring hope
that this time, finally, policy actions would be taken to change the trajectory of growth and inflation
in a nation mired in slow-motion quicksand for better than a decade. PM Abe brought a radically
different approach to tackle Japan's economic misfortunes. In rapid succession and through
cooperation with the Bank of Japan, bond purchases dwarfing steps taken by the Fed and meant
to create inflation from deflation caused a sizable rebound in stock prices through the early months
of the year, past the beginning of the fiscal-year in April, before subsiding, then retreating and
later recovering once again.
Emerging Markets sang a different tune. For the first time since the late 1990's equities
underperformed on a relative and absolute basis vis-á-vis developed markets. A combination of
weaker global demand hurt exports and therefore slowed economies, in some cases below
growth in developed countries. However, lower GDP did not mean lower inflation therefore
eliminating any real interest rate advantage. Foreign capital flows vital to the space turned from
noticeable to a wave and created a vicious cycle of lower prices and increased outflows, especially
right before and after mid-year, as the Federal Reserve contemplated a reduction in its bond
stimulus program. The Fed's subsequent announcement in mid-September not to taper provided
short-term relief, but in general, was not sufficient and did not reverse the pattern set much earlier
in the year.
Specifically, Treasuries seemed to be on cruise-control early, justifying a yield under 2% because
the economy was not lighting a fire, had remained subdued, and below the 2% mark. The early
forecast was for tax increases along with budget spending cuts to hold back any potential return
to trend-growth. However, as Q1 moved into Q2, the mood had become excessively bearish on
the growth front and began to price in even higher prices & lower yields. The view was not precise
but with the Fed on QE forever, or so it seemed at the time, risk-on stayed on course and little
potential for a change in course was anticipated.
All that changed in mid-May when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke ahead of a regular scheduled
meeting stated the central bank may see it appropriate to withdraw a degree of excess liquidity
sometime over the next few meetings. It began a series of steps, like dominos falling, and most
4. 4
importantly forced a reevaluation on the working premise and expectations charted for the
remainder of the year. No longer was a super aggressive monetary policy guaranteed for the year.
The one caveat consistently expressed by the Fed is as long as long-term inflation expectations
are well-anchored, additional time can be bought to secure a stronger domestic economy.
Throughout the year, Washington, not the capital but Capitol Hill was on the minds of the Fed and
Wall Street. The only bit of good news was as the year drew to a close political headwinds
appeared to be diminishing – a two-year budget agreement was achieved – and though not
expected to turn into tailwinds, it was seen as better news.
By the beginning of September EM debt in general had declined substantially in value and
became oversold, which led to a brief respite. Additionally, in mid-September, the Federal
Reserve clearly surprised markets with a decision not to taper its bond program, even by a little
bit! That became the moment in the year’s second-half. Afterwards, most every risk-on asset
immediately improved, be it EM debt, external and in local currency, crude oil, or Gold. The
second part of that story is the relief was just that only for a brief spell; the previous pattern
returned to the fore, though not with the same intensity as prior to the Fed’s announcement.
Going forward, the questions become, how aggressively will the Fed taper, and, more importantly,
what will be the market’s reaction? In other words, how much has been factored-in? Will Emerging
Market debt suffer losses comparable to last year’s, or will foreign flows return? History is not
always a good guide, so even though in recent years EM assets have bounced back, sharply at
times, there is no assurance a repeat will be in the works as a New Year begins.
5. 5
Excess liquidity creation
Continuing to update the same two charts that we presented in our last two letters we can see
that the intuition we had last quarter came to pass. In the second chart, which shows normalized
monetary base to GDP ratios, Japan did overtake the E.U. As expected, government policy has
focused on expanding the monetary base to finally stop Japan’s deflationary expectations; this is
working as deflationary fears were erased from the latest official economic commentary, but it did
cause a much higher rate of monetary expansion than in the E.U. There, the ECB, though
prepared to provide liquidity when needed, has made a determined effort to “sterilize” excess
money and thus control its monetary base, as it still lives under a mandate that puts inflation
control ahead of any other goal. Thus, the U.S. is still the unchallenged leader in terms of excess
money creation, followed by Japan, then by the E.U.
While this U.S. liquidity generation has undoubtedly contributed to significant wealth creation in
the financial sector of the economy, one can honestly wonder how the plot will conclude. Clearly,
in the short term, those who worry about massive inflation appear somewhat misguided:
significant overcapacity of all major global input sources – labor, energy and materials – most
likely limit those risks. Yet, the scope for inflation in goods or services that are either not globally
traded or tradable – healthcare or education, for instance – or whose markets are dependent on
the richest fringe of the population – exceptional real estate or art – is certainly present. In fact,
the evidence would suggest that inflation has been rampant in those latter two segments. The
one question which is still unfortunately unanswered – and will likely remain so given the dearth
of politically unbiased commentators – is whether that monetary creation has led to any materially
higher economic growth. If it has, one can feel that the ills which went with such unabashed
liquidity creation might have been necessary evils. If it has not, one can only bemoan the profound
misallocation of capital which artificially low interest rates and distorted economic rewards can
inflict on an economy.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mar-99 Aug-01 Jan-04 Jun-06 Nov-08 Apr-11 Sep-13
U.S., E.U. and Japanese Monetary Base Indices
100 = March 31, 1999
Japan
U.S.
E.U.
6. 6
The one thing which is clear, as illustrated in the chart below, is that currency markets have shown
a preference for the Euro against the Dollar, while the Yen has continued its downward drift
against both the Dollar and the Euro. Interestingly, these patterns fit with relative rates of monetary
creation. One of the stated goals of the Japanese authorities was to stop the appreciation of the
Yen and bring it down to more “reasonable levels” in order to regain some of their lost
competitiveness vis-à-vis dollar-linked or – pegged currencies. The appreciation of the Euro is
more puzzling given the obvious structural challenges facing the European Union. In short, one
can only conclude that markets continue to prefer currencies from countries – or groups of
countries – whose central bank shows a modicum of monetary discipline!
Recent U.S. economic contradictions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar-99 Aug-01 Jan-04 Jun-06 Nov-08 Apr-11 Sep-13
U.S., E.U. and Japanese Monetary Base to
Nominal GDP Ratios (Normalized pre 2Q 2008)
Japan
U.S.
E.U.
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13
Euro and YenVersus the U.S. Dollar
(100 = December 2011)
Japan Euro
7. 7
Though one can take – and many have taken – some solace in several economic news releases
in the U.S., a more detailed analysis of the data suggest that a more nuanced stance may be
more justified.
Starting with real GDP, for instance, there is little doubt that the 4.1% reported rate of growth in
the third quarter of 2013 was decidedly better than any number since the fourth quarter of 2011.
However, how good is the news, really?
The two charts above track two of the most important contributors to real GDP growth, domestic
private consumption and private capital spending, excluding changes in inventory. Together,
these account for 84% of GDP! The first graph entitled “Personal Consumption Expenditures”,
depicts private consumption and illustrates that it has been stuck in below par growth: it is
currently growing at barely more than half its long-term average. This is not surprising when one
looks at the chart just below: personal income is also growing at lower than its long-term average,
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Personal Consumption Expenditures
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Private Capital Spending (ex-Inventories)
8. 8
and in fact is stuck in the lower half of most observations. We will revert to this thought when we
consider employment statistics.
The chart entitled “Private Capital Spending” on the previous page, looks at fixed capital spending,
adjusted for changes in inventory levels. Though it has bounced back from the recessionary lows,
it now looks to be more in a down– than in an up-trend. Half of this aggregate is comprised of
residential and non-residential constructions, while the balance includes equipment and
intellectual property products. An analysis of the growth since the onset of the 2008 recession
confirms that the story is still not all that great: construction spending is still below pre-recession
levels, while the average growth of spending on equipment and software are at low levels, 1.1%
and 2.0%, respectively. Further, as illustrated in the chart, recent data suggest that fixed
investment growth is on a downtrend! Note that changes in inventories accounted for 72.5% of
the GDP growth in the third quarter! These can be intentional, as business builds inventories to
deal with rising demand, or unintentional and the result of disappointing sales. If the latter, which
circumstantial evidence suggests might be the case, they will have to be worked down!
The really good news, which few people mention, is that exports are growing at a pace that is at
least twice as fast as imports. With net exports still a negative for the GDP as a whole, the
tendency for exports to outperform imports is excellent. Some of this must be credited to the
growing domestic oil and gas production which is slowing imports of hydrocarbons; this does not
look like a trend which should soon reverse unless extreme views within the ecologist movement
prevail or if the current export ban on domestically produced oil remains. The balance of the
slowing import growth is less good news as it is well known that imports tend to track domestic
consumption. Thus, weak consumer spending growth naturally begets weak import growth; this
could reverse as and when consumer spending starts to return to its long-term growth norm. This
may not take place any time soon, though, as consumers seem to be reasonable and to seek to
maintain a more conservative savings rate, as illustrated below.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2003-Jan 2005-Sep 2008-May 2011-Jan 2013-Sep
Personal Income Monthly Growth Patterns
9. 9
Theory teaches us that changes in a nation’s savings rate are often explained, at least in the short
term, by confidence within the job market. Thus, though one can argue that the Fed’s quantitative
easing – and the wealth effect it is meant to trigger – has helped bring down that savings rate
from the highs induced by the 2008-09 recession, it is equally clear that certain fears have been
rekindled. It is too early to tell whether this relates to an employment situation which is not nearly
as good as advertised or to fears of the impact on disposable income of rising health costs; yet,
the timing of the spike six months ago and recent steady increases suggest that employment
prospects are more material than health cost fears which only surfaced recently.
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2000-Dec 2004-Feb 2007-Apr 2010-Jun 2013-Aug
Personal Savings as a % of Disposable Income
(3 month moving average)
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
Jan-05 Apr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11 Jul-12 Oct-13
Total U.S. Jobs Data
(100 = Jan 2005)
Recession
Non-Farm
Household
10. 10
The two charts above entitled “Total U.S. Jobs Data” and “Rolling 12-Month New US Jobs Totals"
look at the employment situation and illustrate the fundamental premises that this recovery, if not
“jobless” has created a lot fewer jobs than “normal;” more to the point, the situation has hardly
improved in the last several quarters. The first chart, which shows total employment according to
the two surveys used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, illustrates that, five years into the
“recovery” there are still fewer people employed in the U.S. than before the onset of the recession.
The second chart displays rolling twelve month job creation totals; it shows that, using the
enterprise survey – which focuses on 160,000 large businesses – new job creations reached 2
million on a rolling twelve month basis in September of 2011 and have bobbed around that line
ever since; people pointing to this 2 million as a major milestone reached recently have not been
looking at the data for the last two years! The household survey – which is often said to be more
accurate, although more volatile, because it incorporates small businesses – is showing a more
pessimistic picture as the most recent data points suggest that employment growth has in fact
been flagging in the last couple of quarters.
The real worry in the labor picture is displayed in the chart below. The labor force participation
rate has been falling dramatically and shows no sign of turning around. Note that, though
fluctuating somewhat in response to levels of economic activity, the labor participation ratio –
which measures the share of the population in age and capacity of working that is working – had
oscillated in a very narrow range between 1990 and 2008: between 66% and 67%. The 2008
recession brought it down, as should be expected. However, it has not rebounded at all since
then. The red line in the chart provides some initial explanation. There has been no drop in
unintended partial unemployment during the recovery (this comprises individuals working part-
time and saying they do so because they could not find a full-time job). This fits with our earlier
analysis. The economic recovery has been somewhat anemic and thus unable to generate
enough new jobs: able-bodied people would love to work, but cannot find it. Unfortunately, the
survey asks for self-reporting of the reasons for being unemployed or partially employed. Thus,
one cannot evaluate whether other factors – beside a lack of opportunities – may be driving this
unintended partial employment rate. Similarly, we cannot assess why the labor participation rate
keeps falling while the ratio of unintentionally part-time employed individuals seems to have
stabilized. Commentators have speculated that well-intended political decisions to offer a rising
level of unemployment and disability benefits may be discouraging people from looking for jobs.
People would be reporting that they cannot find jobs, but in fact might only be looking in a half-
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013
Rolling 12-Month New US Job Totals (millions)
Non-Farm - Establishment Survey
Household Survey
11. 11
hearted manner; also, they might prefer blaming their status on a lack of opportunity. While
plausible and in line with many academic expectations, this explanation cannot be supported from
the statistics provided by the BLS.
In short, the U.S. economic picture does not appear to justify the kind of excitement that has been
displayed by most analysts, particularly after the release of revised third quarter growth. That it is
no longer totally in the doldrums is a welcomed fact. That all cylinders of the economic engine –
save government; and that is a plus – seem to be contributing is also a fact. There is however
quite a gap between an economy which is moving ahead at half its historical rate and the onset
of a real economic expansion. The so-called “recovery trade” looks at this point more like a
justification of recent equity price movements than a true fundamental discovery! As we shall see
later, valuation distortions can arise because of the discrepancy between perceptions that the
U.S. economy is doing a lot better and the reality that it is chugging along at a lower than normal
pace.
Economic trends outside of the U.S.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
1990 1993 1996 2000 2003 2006 2010 2013
Labor Force Participation Rate
vs. Unintentional Part-Time Employment
Labor Force Participation RateLab
Unintentional Part-Time EmploymentUn
12. 12
The chart above displays the real GDP growth rates of Europe – defined here as Euro-Land and
thus excluding the U.K. – and Japan. For comparison purposes, these are shown with those of
the U.S. The main message is unfortunately not terribly pleasing: real economic growth has really
not recovered around the developed world and the U.S. remains the leading economic light in the
developed world! Japan continues to follow the stop-and-go pattern it has been experiencing
since the December 1989 bursting of its asset price bubble. It is still much too early to declare the
policy of Prime Minister Abe a successful one, although there admittedly are a few encouraging
signs. Europe remains in the doldrums, despite the still solid performance of Germany. The major
structural issues that plague southern Europe – France, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal – are
not being addressed. The largest economy of the lot, France, suffers from a total inability for any
political party to implement the changes that are badly needed: more efficient labor market, some
minimum acquiescence that free markets work better than government-driven ones and a
substantial reduction in the size of the public service sector. The appreciation of the Euro is – or
should be – a further worry for Europe looking forward; the fundamentally flawed structure of the
Union comes out vividly here. While Germany can easily compete in global markets at current
Euro levels, it is a much harder game for southern Europe. Thus, any recovery there must be
driven by domestic growth, and this requires policies which governments will not implement!
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1996-
Q1
1998-
Q3
2001-
Q1
2003-
Q3
2006-
Q1
2008-
Q3
2011-
Q1
2013-
Q3
Real GDP Growth in Developed World
EuroZone Japan U.S.
13. 13
The developing world appears to be on a continued growth mode, held back by the monetary
policy tightening instituted by many governments in response to what they saw as runaway laxity
by the U.S. As these economies – save India – do rely on exports, tracking their currencies helps
anticipate future performance somewhat. Thus, Brazil and India should be benefiting from lower
currencies, while China and Mexico will need to compete within a stable to rising currency
environment.
U.S. Equity market valuations
Over the last several commentaries, we have been using a couple of equity valuation measures
that rely more on macro-economic data than actual corporate reporting. This does not reflect a
fundamental preference on our part, but rather is part of a plan of broadening the analysis to
include other major countries. We believe that there is more consistency in macro-economic
reporting principles than in terms of accounting practices. Further, while “listed” corporate
developments may appear to diverge from the broader macro-economic trend in the short-term,
rare is the country – only Germany comes to mind – where such discrepancies can persist for an
extended period of time.
Three graphs tell the story. The first, overleaf, creates a notional implied P/E for the S&P 500 by
dividing the actual level of the index at the end of each quarter by the reported GDP-based
corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments for that same
quarter. Though still in the middle of the long-term historical range, it appears to be creeping up
and thus deserves watching, particularly when one focuses on the post-1982 environment and
mentally excludes the tech bubble at the turn of the century!
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-03 Mar-05 May-07 Jul-09 Sep-11 Nov-13
Developing Currencies Versus the U.S. Dollar
(100 = January 2003)
China India Mexico Brazil
14. 14
The second, above, looks at the reverse of this implied P/E ratio – an implied earnings yield – and
compares it with the yield of the constant maturity U.S. 10-Year Treasury bond, as computed and
provided by the St. Louis Fed. The main insight from that chart does not relate to equity valuations;
the data on the implied earnings yield is no more conclusive than in the first chart above. On the
other hand, U.S. Treasury yields appear considerably below historical levels. Thus, if it is true that
there should be some relationship between earnings yields – and thus P/E ratios – and long-term
interest rates, one should probably develop a measure of caution. It should suggest two
conclusions.
First, any measure of equity valuation that is based on interest rates should be roundly discarded:
it may well be that equities are cheap relative to bonds; but bonds are so visibly expensive that
equities could also be expensive, albeit a bit less than bonds! Second, if there is – as there should
be – some relationship between equity valuations and long-term interest rates, one should be
mindful of the reaction of equity prices as and when – not if – long-term U.S. interest rates climb
further.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Implied S&P 500 P/E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Implied S&P Earnings Yield vs. 10 Y Treasury
Yield
Implied Earnings Yield
10 Year Constant Yield U.S. Treasury
15. 15
The last graph, below, is based on the theory that P/E ratios should in part reflect profit growth
prospects. However, because we do not have access to historical forward looking equity profit
growth prospects, we have had to make a conceptual change. Using actual data for future profits
for some of the time and real expectations for the more current period would bias our analysis:
expectations can be wrong, both now and in the past! We postulate that future growth – if
measured over the intermediate term – should in part reflect some measure of recent intermediate
growth trends. Ostensibly, this is debatable as one can easily imagine that our analysis would fail
to show anything if there was a sudden structural change. However, we felt it best to conduct it
and show it, in order for our readers to make up their own minds.
Thus, in the chart above, the current implied P/E is adjusted by the average rate of nominal GDP
growth over the prior 36 months – we need nominal growth so that our analysis is not distorted
by change in inflation levels. The results are interesting from two points of views. First, it shows
that there has been a fluctuating but relatively steady valuation range and that its fluctuations
conform to rational expectations: valuations fell while inflation was rising rapidly and rose as
inflation – and interest rates – came back to more “normal” levels. Second, it suggests that though
not overpriced yet, equity prices appear close to bumping against the upper boundary of our band,
defined by the long-term average plus and minus half a standard deviation.
In short, we conclude that it is too early to cry wolf and argue that U.S. equities should be sold
simply on valuation grounds; yet, we note that they have become quite a bit more expensive in
the last couple of quarters and that both corporate profits and valuations are susceptible to
negative surprises when long-term interest rates return to the norm. Higher interest rates could
cause some slowdown in the interest sensitive part of the economy, while equity P/E’s normal
tendency is to move in the opposite direction to interest rates.
Investment implications
Fundamentally, our views have evolved but not dramatically changed from a quarter ago.
Ostensibly, we feel chastised by the fact that we underestimated the strength of the “tsunami of
liquidity.” Our analysis does suggest that valuations have deteriorated in most areas, except for
emerging market equities. Yet, we feel more careful calling for caution, as the very forces that
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Implied GDP Growth-Adjusted S&P 500 P/E
16. 16
moved markets in 2013 could very well continue to work their “magic” in 2014. At the same time,
we are not ready to throw all traditional indicators to the wind or to adopt the justifying rather than
analyzing approach that we are seeing in many – too many – commentators. That these have
proven right in the recent past does not prove that the analysis is correct. It just proves the old
adage that fighting the tape is a dangerous sport. We emerge from the last twelve months with
our share of wounds and feel one should always learn from one’s mistake; however, woe to he
or she who learns the wrong lesson!
We are thus firmly convinced by three main themes:
o Excess liquidity has been a very important – though not the sole – driver of equity
markets in the U.S. – and by extension, in the balance of the developed world. There
is no compelling reason to assume that this will stop in the short term. In fact, the
recent announcement by the Fed that it would only trim $10 billion off its hitherto
monthly $85 billion purchase of fixed income securities, suggests that we are nowhere
near the time when quantitative easing stops! There is room for equity prices to rise
further.
o Direct and indirect valuation factors suggest that equities could well experience a
setback at some point, which does not have to be in the too distant future. We suspect
that this will happen as and when markets feel that the path toward allowing the
economy to operate without the constant official creation of liquidity is clear, and thus,
the “inflection point” may come too close for comfort. At that point, there may be
material downside risk to equity prices.
o Trying to time whatever turning point is ahead of us does not seem reasonably
possible. Though we have heard commentators discuss and predict the actual quarter
during which this could happen, we view these as pure speculation. The truth is that
one can conjure up as many rationales for it happening next quarter as there are
against that same proposition. We feel that this should drive a strategic dichotomy
which many investors will have to face.
The major decision which investors should indeed make relates to the trade-off between the short-
and the long-term. It relates to whether not participating in a raging bull move is creating so much
discomfort that they feel they have to remain overweight in equities and thus have a portfolio
comprising more tactical risk than their investment policy. At the same time, retaining more tactical
risk than “normal” exposes investors to the near certainty that some of the gains they have made
and are still making will disappear. Unless one assumes – and this would appear to us a fool’s
errand – that one will be able to call the turn just in time, one is bound to have to decide to sell
after markets turn. How unpleasant will it be to take losses, which could be material if the turn is
sharp? Thus, an alternative strategy is to decide to avoid the potential worry with excess equity
risk and start to move to an underweighted position. This, however, cannot be done unless one
is explicitly prepared to see the portfolio underperform for as long as the equity rally continues.
Within these parameters, a number of themes emerge:
i. Higher than normal cash reserves remain warranted, both to dampen downward price
movements and provide ammunition for buying opportunities
ii. Fixed income investments appear most likely to disappoint for as long as they have an
exposure to interest rate risk. Thus, keeping duration to a minimum and tactically
17. 17
allocating to: Investment Grade Munis, High Yield Munis, Emerging Markets and
Mortgage-Backed Securities
iii. Equity valuations do not appear to be cheap, tactical allocations to: European Equities
and Emerging Market Equities - Mexico, EM Consumer, Asia (ex-Japan) - should be
considered
iv. Trading strategies, such as global macro and managed futures, offer opportunities to
hedge certain portfolio risks, but they can be significantly whipsawed when markets gyrate
in a directionless manner, caution continues to be prescribed to these strategies and
managers
v. Income Producing Real Assets – MLPs – Though they may have suffered from the
perception that they were interest sensitive investments (as they are often bought for
income) their likely future exposure to the need to transport hydrocarbons from the place
they are extracted to the place where they are consumed should provide some long-term
potential
vi. Illiquid strategies, as unpopular as they may be, may actually offer meaningful
opportunities, specifically within the following strategies:
o Distressed European assets, Distressed European real state, as well as private
market opportunities within the energy space present interesting opportunities
The environment is thus not devoid of opportunities, but it should be seen as somewhat
treacherous. In short, as mentioned in virtually all previous commentaries, the prudent investor
will seek to capture as many of the opportunities as might be available, but will be particularly
careful to define his or her real risk tolerance and need for higher returns, hopefully through a
cautious evaluation of his or her individual goals and the size of the assets needed to defease
them. For many, this may involve taking a wealth preservation strategy, remembering that wealth
is created in entrepreneurial ventures and protected in the public markets. For a few, this may
involve continuing to seek long-term returns and accepting the inevitable volatility, arguing that
one’s balance sheet strength and long-term horizon allows such relative aggressiveness. The
spectrum of possible investment stances is thus large, but the main focus should be on ensuring
that one is in the right position within this spectrum rather than being mesmerized with short-term
return opportunities.
___________________________
Santiago Ulloa
___________________________
Jean Brunel
This letter contains our current opinion, and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, investment
product or manager. Our opinions are subject to change without notice. This letter is distributed for educational purposes only and
should not be considered as investment advice or an offer of any security or service for sale. Information contained herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this letter may be reproduced in any form, or referred to
in any other publication, without express written permission.