The document provides an overview of economic indicators and financial markets in November 2009. It notes that while the investment model showed weakness in October, the markets have rebounded. GDP growth was reported at 3.5% for Q3 2009, indicating the recession had ended. Manufacturing and services were growing, though consumer spending was lagging. Unemployment remained high at 9.8%, dampening consumer confidence. Global markets were mixed for the month.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
2017 Q3 ASI Wealth Management Quarterly Market ReviewSusan Langdon
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
US inflation and new Fed chair in focus this weekRichard Perry
All eyes will turn back to the US this week as newly appointed Fed chair Jerome Powell faces the Congressional committees for the first time this week. Along with crucial inflation data this will be key for markets. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier DEsbarres: What to expect in 2016 – same, same, but worseOlivier Desbarres
It is clear that markets so far this year are trading on sentiment, more specifically fear, with hard-data playing second fiddle. Or more accurately, price action suggests that markets are focusing on disappointing December numbers (e.g. US ISM) or even reasonably uneventful data (Chinese manufacturing PMI) and ignoring strong data such as U.S non-farm payrolls, Chinese services PMI and exports (see Figure 1). The hit-and-miss approach of Chinese policy-makers to stabilise equity markets (and ultimately growth) have done little to restore confidence. I nevertheless flag in Figure 37 some of the key data and events to focus on this year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
2017 Q3 ASI Wealth Management Quarterly Market ReviewSusan Langdon
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
US inflation and new Fed chair in focus this weekRichard Perry
All eyes will turn back to the US this week as newly appointed Fed chair Jerome Powell faces the Congressional committees for the first time this week. Along with crucial inflation data this will be key for markets. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier DEsbarres: What to expect in 2016 – same, same, but worseOlivier Desbarres
It is clear that markets so far this year are trading on sentiment, more specifically fear, with hard-data playing second fiddle. Or more accurately, price action suggests that markets are focusing on disappointing December numbers (e.g. US ISM) or even reasonably uneventful data (Chinese manufacturing PMI) and ignoring strong data such as U.S non-farm payrolls, Chinese services PMI and exports (see Figure 1). The hit-and-miss approach of Chinese policy-makers to stabilise equity markets (and ultimately growth) have done little to restore confidence. I nevertheless flag in Figure 37 some of the key data and events to focus on this year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
Indian equities ended a very volatile month of February down 1.1% from the previous month on account of the Interim Budget, a preemptive military strike by India, slow recovery in earnings growth over the last two quarters, buzz around general elections, and receding tensions between US and China.
Read the full document to know more.
Factsheet for Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund- WishfinAnvi Sharma
The scheme aims to maximize long term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity & equity related securities of companies engaged in banking & financial services. The scheme would invest in banks as well as NBFC's, insurance companies, rating agencies, broking companies, etc.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
We believe that volatility is expected to prevail as the world comes to terms with the evolving COVID-19 situation & its economic fallout. Investors must embrace volatility & be cognizant of their asset allocation while invest.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
VAT Registration Outlined In UAE: Benefits and Requirementsuae taxgpt
Vat Registration is a legal obligation for businesses meeting the threshold requirement, helping companies avoid fines and ramifications. Contact now!
https://viralsocialtrends.com/vat-registration-outlined-in-uae/
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
➢ SUPER JUNIOR-L.S.S. THE SHOW : Th3ee Guys in HO CHI MINH
➢FreenBecky 1st Fan Meeting in Vietnam
➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
➢ WOW K-Music Festival 2023
➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
➢ HCMC - Gyeongsangbuk-do Culture and Tourism Festival
➢ Korean Vietnam Partnership - Fair with LG
➢ Korean President visits Samsung Electronics R&D Center
➢ Vietnam Food Expo with Lotte Wellfood
"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n PrintNavpack & Print
Looking for professional printing services in Jaipur? Navpack n Print offers high-quality and affordable stationery printing for all your business needs. Stand out with custom stationery designs and fast turnaround times. Contact us today for a quote!
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
1. WDG MarkeT Update
NOVEMBER 2009
The month in brief. We saw weakness develop in Both notable consumer confidence indices declined
the Investment Model from 10/19 through 11/4 with in October – the Conference Board index dipped to
several key measures turning negative. However, the 47.7 from a 53.4 in September.9 The Reuters survey
markets have once again bounced back from the went from 73.5 in September to 70.6 at the end of last
multi-day declines experienced as October ended. We month.10 With unemployment at 9.8% in September,
have now begun to see some slight improvement in it was understandable.11 Economists discussed the
the Investment Model, but not enough to call for possibility of the Fed raising the key interest rate – in
increased equity exposure just yet. If the model fact, a few even called for it – but there was no hint of
continues to improve, we may begin reallocating a shift in Fed policy.
assets to the equity markets soon. For now we will
continue to monitor the model, and wait for Global economic health. Evidence showed that
additional trend confirmation, along with manufacturing was picking up abroad as well as in
participation from market breadth before re- the U.S. The Eurozone’s manufacturing sector
deploying assets. expanded in October for the first time since April
2008. China’s Purchasing Manufacturers Index hit
Questions about the strength and speed of the 55.4 in October, an 18-month peak. England’s PMI
recovery hampered stocks by Halloween, although also showed growth, and so did the PMIs in India and
positive economic news continued to surface. The South Korea.12 The International Monetary Fund
service sector and the manufacturing sector were adjusted its growth forecast for the Asia Pacific region
both growing; consumer spending, however, was up about 1.5% - it predicted 2009 growth of 2.8% and
lagging. It was a fine month for most hard assets, and 2010 growth of 5.8%.13
a mixed month for global financial markets. Finally,
one notable statistic seemed to indicate the recession The jobless rate in the Eurozone was 9.7% in
was done. September; consumer prices fell for the fifth straight
month, nice for shoppers but certainly not indicating
Domestic economic health. Let’s get to that demand. New data showed the EU economy shrank
statistic. The Commerce Department announced the 0.2% in the second quarter.14
3Q preliminary GDP: +3.5%. U.S. GDP hadn’t been
so strong since 3Q 2007. America’s longest stretch of World financial markets. Emerging markets
economic contraction since 1947 was history.1 fared better than indices in Europe and the U.S. The
DAX descended 4.58% in October, and the CAC 40
Backing up that statistic, we had the Institute for fell 4.98%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 lost 1.74% for
Supply Management’s manufacturing index hit 55.7 the month. The Nikkei 225 lost 0.97%, the Australian
in October (a 3½-year high point) after a 52.6 in All Ordinaries 1.95%, and the Kospi (South Korea)
September (anything over 50 equals growth).2 We lost 5.53%. As for gains, the Hang Seng rose 3.81%
saw the ISM service sector index turn positive for the and the Shanghai Composite ascended 7.79%.
first time in a year, coming in at 50.9 for September Argentina’s MERVAL rose 2.06% and the Bovespa
with its new orders index at 54.2.3 The Federal gained 0.02% in Brazil.15 MSCI’s World Index and
Reserve informed us that industrial production went Emerging Markets Index were both down for the
up by 5.2% in the third quarter – the best quarter in month, respectively losing 2.31% and 0.49% for
four years, and the first positive quarter since the October.16
recession began.4
Commodities markets. Oil prices rose 9.05% last
As for consumers, prices and purchases, the data was month, ending October at $77.00 per barrel. Natural
mixed. Personal spending fell 0.6% in September, gas futures advanced 4.21% in October, leaving that
even as durable goods orders rose by 1.0%.5,6 Retail commodity at -10.26% YTD through October’s end.
sales were down 1.5% for that month, but up 0.5% Diesel futures gained 7.41% in October, putting them
minus automotive purchases (economists felt the up 41.00% for the year. Turning to metals, silver
decline was partly due to the end of the C.A.R.S. actually lost ground last month (-2.42%) but gold did
program).7 Year-over-year inflation was still negative: just fine (+3.08%). Copper could not be stopped –
from September 2008 to September 2009, CPI fell copper futures were +4.84% in October and (are you
1.3% (though core CPI rose 1.5%). CPI rose 0.2% for sitting down?) +109.61% across the first ten months
September.8 of the year. Palladium has done exceptionally well,
2. WDG MarkeT Update
NOVEMBER 2009
too: +8.04% for October, making it +71.30% YTD. Major indexes. The Dow hit a 2009 high of
The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.34% in October.15 10,119.47 in October, but finished the month with
only a miniscule gain; the NASDAQ and S&P 500
One crop has done almost as well as copper this year: both slipped. It was a challenging month for stocks,
sugar. Sugar futures fell 5.56% in October, but that unusual as Octobers go. At month’s end, the major
left them up 92.89% for 2009. Orange juice futures indices were still showing impressive gains off their
rose 26.17% last month.15 March lows – the DJIA, +48.4%; the NASDAQ,
+61.2%; the S&P 500, +53.2%.15
Housing & interest rates. The latest existing, new
and pending home sales numbers were mostly
% Change 1-Month Y-T-D
encouraging. First the downside: according to the
Commerce Department, new home sales fell 3.6% in DJIA +0.005 +10.67
September, a decline many chalked up to the looming
potential expiration of the $8,000 first-time buyer NASDAQ -3.64 +29.68
credit offered by the federal government.17 Existing S&P 500 -1.98 +14.72
home sales rocketed north 9.4% in September,
marking gains in five of the last six months of data.18 10YrTIPS Real
-0.06 -37.33
Pending home sales (like existing home sales, Yield
monitored by the National Association of Realtors) (Source: CNBC.com, ustreas.gov, 10/30/09)15,21
were up 6.1% in September after a 6.4% rise in Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
August, marking the eighth month in a row of
improvement. Construction spending also increased
by 0.8% in September.19
Riddle of the month. Who is the only woman ever
Let’s see what Freddie Mac found when it came to to appear on U.S. paper currency?
surveying U.S. mortgage rates. On October 1, the Contact my office or see next month’s Update for the
national average interest rate for a 30-year FRM was answer
4.94%. By October 29, it was 5.03%. Average rates on
15-year FRMs also rose slightly in that time frame,
from 4.36% to 4.46%. The 5/1-year ARM? No change,
a 4.42% average interest rate in both surveys. As for
the 1-year ARM, the average rate on that loan type
moved north from 4.49% to 4.57%.20
3. WDG MarkeT Update
NOVEMBER 2009
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Citations.
1 thestreet.com/story/10618752/1/gdp-stunner-35-growth-in-third-quarter.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN [10/29/09]
2 reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0243717320091102 [11/2/09]
3 news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091005/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy [10/5/09]
4 marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-tap-fresh-one-year-high-atop-78-2009-10-16 [10/16/09]
5 marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-retreats-after-clunkers-ends-2009-10-30 [11/2/09]
6 latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs29-2009oct29,0,456350.story [10/29/09]
7 money.cnn.com/2009/10/14/news/economy/September_retail_sales/?postversion=2009101409 [10/14/09]
8msnbc.msn.com/id/33344177/ns/business-businessweekcom/ [10/15/09]
9 conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm [10/27/09]
10 abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=8956838 [10/30/09]
11 cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/21/business/main5405768.shtml [10/21/09]
12 reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN0243555320091102?sp=true [11/2/09]
13 nytimes.com/2009/10/30/business/global/30imf.html [10/30/09]
14 google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ipzZ-ZVFuBCVK810-PpiBUogE45wD9BLGRD03 [10/30/09]
15 cnbc.com/id/33555251/page/2/ [10/30/09]
16 mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.html [10/30/09]
17 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aPXIvh4rYY60 [10/28/09]
18 realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/10/rebound_shows [10/23/09]
19 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVHuhXWfKh5M&pos=3 [11/2/09]
20 freddiemac.com/pmms/ [11/2/09]
21 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/30/09]
22 cnbc.com/id/33586664 [11/2/09]
23 foxbusiness.com/story/markets/futures-start-week-positive-note/ [11/2/09]
