http://westney.com/ - Westney Consulting Group improves the predictability and performance of large, complex engineering and construction projects. The firm supports executives in oil and gas, alternative and renewable energy, mining and minerals, and chemical manufacturing with predictability and risk assessments, strategic planning, performance transformation, and project implementation.
The second in our 3 part series on How to Build Decision Management Systems. Part 2 Decision Services describes the core of a Decision Management System, a set of software components that make these decisions accurately, reliably and responsively, leveraging advanced analytics and business rules management systems.
Consultancy in Airport Sector Scope and OpportunitiesPrashanth M R
This document provides an overview of the scope and opportunities for airport consultants in India. It discusses the increasing need for airport development in India to support economic growth. Airport consultants play an important role in areas such as airport planning, design, engineering, operations, and other specialized services. The key objectives and duties of airport consultants include conducting feasibility studies, preparing master plans, providing architectural and engineering design services, and assisting clients with airport development projects. The document also outlines the selection process for airport consultants, which typically involves evaluating technical and financial parameters to identify consultants qualified for specific projects.
Based on multiple client engagements, How to Build Decision Management Systems introduces our phased approach to building information systems that improve the effectiveness and efficiency of business operations.
“Part One - Decision Discovery” introduces the first step in successfully building Decision Management Systems, how to discover and model the right decisions. The webinar recording is available on our Omnovia channel.
Workplace health promotion presentationmike parker
Workplace health promotion programs aim to improve employee health and reduce costs through coordinated policies, benefits, and environmental supports. These programs address multiple health risks and levels of the organization at once. Increasing costs of healthcare and decreased productivity due to employee illness are driving more employers to implement wellness programs. Evaluation of programs shows some success in increasing healthy behaviors like fruit/vegetable consumption and decreasing smoking rates. Further research is still needed to identify the most effective interventions.
This document provides information about "Q" Renaissance Quality Consultants, a business management consultancy firm based in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah. The summary is:
"Q" Renaissance Quality Consultants specializes in designing and delivering complex business transformation programs. They help clients bridge the gap between strategic intent and effective operational delivery. Their expertise includes strategy development, organizational design, program setup and delivery, operational improvement, and ensuring technology effectiveness through total business integration and fit-for-purpose solutions.
Risk & Uncertainty in Managerial Decision Making (Managerial economics)Mateen Altaf
1) The document discusses risk and uncertainty in managerial decision making. It defines decision making as choosing among alternatives and outlines the decision making process.
2) It describes decisions under risk as having known probabilities and decisions under uncertainty as having unknown probabilities. Most major organizational decisions are made under uncertainty.
3) It provides a case study of Nirala Sweets, a Pakistani sweets company, and does a SWOT analysis identifying their strengths in quality, weaknesses in rewards and prices, and threats from competitors.
PMI Research provides some robust insights into what makes a select group of organizations high-performers and suggests specific activities which can help other organizations improve their capabilities
This document provides details on 10 decision problems involving operations research and decision theory. The problems cover topics like determining optimal inventory levels, whether to invest in market research, extending credit to customers, and deciding whether to drill for oil or lease land. Complex decision trees, probabilities, costs, and profits are presented to analyze the optimal choices for each scenario.
The second in our 3 part series on How to Build Decision Management Systems. Part 2 Decision Services describes the core of a Decision Management System, a set of software components that make these decisions accurately, reliably and responsively, leveraging advanced analytics and business rules management systems.
Consultancy in Airport Sector Scope and OpportunitiesPrashanth M R
This document provides an overview of the scope and opportunities for airport consultants in India. It discusses the increasing need for airport development in India to support economic growth. Airport consultants play an important role in areas such as airport planning, design, engineering, operations, and other specialized services. The key objectives and duties of airport consultants include conducting feasibility studies, preparing master plans, providing architectural and engineering design services, and assisting clients with airport development projects. The document also outlines the selection process for airport consultants, which typically involves evaluating technical and financial parameters to identify consultants qualified for specific projects.
Based on multiple client engagements, How to Build Decision Management Systems introduces our phased approach to building information systems that improve the effectiveness and efficiency of business operations.
“Part One - Decision Discovery” introduces the first step in successfully building Decision Management Systems, how to discover and model the right decisions. The webinar recording is available on our Omnovia channel.
Workplace health promotion presentationmike parker
Workplace health promotion programs aim to improve employee health and reduce costs through coordinated policies, benefits, and environmental supports. These programs address multiple health risks and levels of the organization at once. Increasing costs of healthcare and decreased productivity due to employee illness are driving more employers to implement wellness programs. Evaluation of programs shows some success in increasing healthy behaviors like fruit/vegetable consumption and decreasing smoking rates. Further research is still needed to identify the most effective interventions.
This document provides information about "Q" Renaissance Quality Consultants, a business management consultancy firm based in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah. The summary is:
"Q" Renaissance Quality Consultants specializes in designing and delivering complex business transformation programs. They help clients bridge the gap between strategic intent and effective operational delivery. Their expertise includes strategy development, organizational design, program setup and delivery, operational improvement, and ensuring technology effectiveness through total business integration and fit-for-purpose solutions.
Risk & Uncertainty in Managerial Decision Making (Managerial economics)Mateen Altaf
1) The document discusses risk and uncertainty in managerial decision making. It defines decision making as choosing among alternatives and outlines the decision making process.
2) It describes decisions under risk as having known probabilities and decisions under uncertainty as having unknown probabilities. Most major organizational decisions are made under uncertainty.
3) It provides a case study of Nirala Sweets, a Pakistani sweets company, and does a SWOT analysis identifying their strengths in quality, weaknesses in rewards and prices, and threats from competitors.
PMI Research provides some robust insights into what makes a select group of organizations high-performers and suggests specific activities which can help other organizations improve their capabilities
This document provides details on 10 decision problems involving operations research and decision theory. The problems cover topics like determining optimal inventory levels, whether to invest in market research, extending credit to customers, and deciding whether to drill for oil or lease land. Complex decision trees, probabilities, costs, and profits are presented to analyze the optimal choices for each scenario.
How to Build Decision Management Systems, Part Three - Decision Analysis introduces a robust model of decisions to track and improve business performance. The webinar recording is available on demand on our website.
This document provides an overview of a course on managing decision under uncertainties taught by Dr. Elijah Ezendu. The learning objectives are to recognize the importance of managing decisions, identify the effects of risks and uncertainties on decisions, identify sources and levels of uncertainties, and manipulate uncertainties effectively while managing decisions. It defines certainty, risk, and uncertainty and differentiates between risk and uncertainty. It discusses various sources of uncertainty including demand structure, supply structure, competitors, internal forces, and time. It also covers levels of uncertainty, biases that hinder effective decision-making, handling uncertainties, limitations of tools like net present value analysis and real options, and the concept of decision profiling to examine past choices.
The document discusses four basic patterns of thinking: understanding what's going on, determining why things happened, deciding on a course of action, and anticipating what lies ahead. It then discusses how these patterns are used in organizational contexts through situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis, and potential problem analysis. Decision analysis in particular involves analyzing reasons for decisions, options, and risks to accomplish goals. The characteristics of thinking first, seeing first, and doing first approaches to decision making are also outlined.
This document provides an overview of decision analysis and decision making under certainty and uncertainty. It describes decision environments like certainty, where outcomes are known, and uncertainty, where outcomes are unknown. It also defines decision criteria for nonprobabilistic decisions, where probabilities are unknown, and probabilistic decisions, which consider probabilities. Examples are given of decision criteria like expected value, maximax, maximin and minimax regret. Payoff tables, opportunity loss tables, and decision trees are used to demonstrate the application of these decision criteria.
This document provides an overview of decision analysis and quantitative decision making techniques. It outlines the key steps in decision making, different types of decision environments (certainty, uncertainty, risk), and quantitative models for making decisions under uncertainty and risk. Specific techniques covered include maximax, maximin, Hurwicz criterion of realism, equally likely, minimax regret, expected monetary value, expected value of perfect information, and expected opportunity loss. An example involving a company deciding whether to expand product lines is used to illustrate applying these techniques. The goal is to teach students a systematic, analytical approach to decision making.
Risk and uncertainty in construction projectsSameer Nawab
This document discusses risk and uncertainty in construction projects. It defines uncertainty as a lack of certainty involving variability and ambiguity, while risk can be quantified using probability distributions. Sources of uncertainty include unclear communication, unestimated work amounts, lack of management tools, and unclear responsibilities. The top 10 risks related to project objectives are listed as cost overruns, delays, quality issues, environmental impacts, and safety concerns. Risk management for construction projects involves planning, identification, analysis, response, and monitoring of risks over nine areas including scope, schedule, costs, quality, and communications. Managing both internal and external project risks is important for project success.
The document outlines a six step decision theory approach to making complex management decisions: 1) Create a constructive environment by defining objectives, agreeing on the process, and involving stakeholders. 2) Generate good alternatives through techniques like brainstorming and reframing. 3) Explore the alternatives by analyzing risks, implications, and validating feasibility. 4) Choose the best alternative using tools like grid analysis and decision trees. 5) Check the decision intuitively and using techniques like blindspot analysis. 6) Communicate the decision and take action by explaining risks and benefits to gain support.
1. There are different types of probability including a priori, statistical, and estimated probabilities which involve judgment under uncertainty.
2. Risk involves known outcomes and probabilities, while uncertainty involves unknown or imprecisely estimated outcomes and probabilities. Most real-life decisions involve uncertainty.
3. The precautionary principle is meant to ensure absence of scientific certainty is not used to postpone actions to protect people and environment from credible threats of serious harm.
Risk and uncertainty are related, but different concepts that many people struggle to understand. This presentation defines and explains the difference between risk and uncertainty and how they are measured, so that they can be properly managed in a business context.
Please add any comments or feedback, and share this presentaiton with your colleagues, thanks!
Feel free to contact me via LinkedIn if you have any questions:
http://www.linkedin.com/in/kelvinstott
Alternatively, please visit or join our LinkedIn group, ’Big Ideas in R&D Productivity & Project / Portfolio Management’:
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Big-Ideas-in-Pharma-R-4322249
This document provides an overview of a course on critical thinking and decision making. It introduces course objectives, assignments, and key topics that will be covered such as critical thinking skills, decision making processes, identifying assumptions and biases, and overcoming barriers to effective thinking. The document outlines phases of critical thinking and questions students should ask themselves to evaluate arguments and make well-reasoned decisions.
Critical thinking is reflective reasoning about beliefs and actions used to determine if claims are true. It traces to Socratic questioning in Ancient Greece and involves examining propositions to assess if they correspond to reality. Critical thinking requires skills like observation, interpretation, evaluation, and inference as well as intellectual traits like open-mindedness, integrity, and courage. The purpose is to use reason to improve the quality of thinking on any subject.
INDECS LLP is an independent risk management consultancy established in 1988 that formerly operated as Taylor Risk Consulting. It has 3 partners and 8 staff members based in London. INDECS only works with insured companies and not brokers or underwriters. Its core services include claims consultancy, risk solutions, an energy practice, and due diligence work. It has experience working with over 60 clients in 36 countries across various industries.
The document discusses decision making and problem solving. It covers defining problems, gathering relevant information to analyze problems, and generating and selecting alternatives. The problem solving process involves defining the problem, collecting information and measures, analyzing the problem, generating alternatives, selecting alternatives, and deciding on and implementing a solution. Cause and effect diagrams like fishbone diagrams can be used to identify and analyze the root causes of problems. Collecting the right information through questions is important for fully understanding problems before attempting to solve them.
How to Build Decision Management Systems, Part Three - Decision Analysis introduces a robust model of decisions to track and improve business performance. The webinar recording is available on demand on our website.
This document provides an overview of a course on managing decision under uncertainties taught by Dr. Elijah Ezendu. The learning objectives are to recognize the importance of managing decisions, identify the effects of risks and uncertainties on decisions, identify sources and levels of uncertainties, and manipulate uncertainties effectively while managing decisions. It defines certainty, risk, and uncertainty and differentiates between risk and uncertainty. It discusses various sources of uncertainty including demand structure, supply structure, competitors, internal forces, and time. It also covers levels of uncertainty, biases that hinder effective decision-making, handling uncertainties, limitations of tools like net present value analysis and real options, and the concept of decision profiling to examine past choices.
The document discusses four basic patterns of thinking: understanding what's going on, determining why things happened, deciding on a course of action, and anticipating what lies ahead. It then discusses how these patterns are used in organizational contexts through situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis, and potential problem analysis. Decision analysis in particular involves analyzing reasons for decisions, options, and risks to accomplish goals. The characteristics of thinking first, seeing first, and doing first approaches to decision making are also outlined.
This document provides an overview of decision analysis and decision making under certainty and uncertainty. It describes decision environments like certainty, where outcomes are known, and uncertainty, where outcomes are unknown. It also defines decision criteria for nonprobabilistic decisions, where probabilities are unknown, and probabilistic decisions, which consider probabilities. Examples are given of decision criteria like expected value, maximax, maximin and minimax regret. Payoff tables, opportunity loss tables, and decision trees are used to demonstrate the application of these decision criteria.
This document provides an overview of decision analysis and quantitative decision making techniques. It outlines the key steps in decision making, different types of decision environments (certainty, uncertainty, risk), and quantitative models for making decisions under uncertainty and risk. Specific techniques covered include maximax, maximin, Hurwicz criterion of realism, equally likely, minimax regret, expected monetary value, expected value of perfect information, and expected opportunity loss. An example involving a company deciding whether to expand product lines is used to illustrate applying these techniques. The goal is to teach students a systematic, analytical approach to decision making.
Risk and uncertainty in construction projectsSameer Nawab
This document discusses risk and uncertainty in construction projects. It defines uncertainty as a lack of certainty involving variability and ambiguity, while risk can be quantified using probability distributions. Sources of uncertainty include unclear communication, unestimated work amounts, lack of management tools, and unclear responsibilities. The top 10 risks related to project objectives are listed as cost overruns, delays, quality issues, environmental impacts, and safety concerns. Risk management for construction projects involves planning, identification, analysis, response, and monitoring of risks over nine areas including scope, schedule, costs, quality, and communications. Managing both internal and external project risks is important for project success.
The document outlines a six step decision theory approach to making complex management decisions: 1) Create a constructive environment by defining objectives, agreeing on the process, and involving stakeholders. 2) Generate good alternatives through techniques like brainstorming and reframing. 3) Explore the alternatives by analyzing risks, implications, and validating feasibility. 4) Choose the best alternative using tools like grid analysis and decision trees. 5) Check the decision intuitively and using techniques like blindspot analysis. 6) Communicate the decision and take action by explaining risks and benefits to gain support.
1. There are different types of probability including a priori, statistical, and estimated probabilities which involve judgment under uncertainty.
2. Risk involves known outcomes and probabilities, while uncertainty involves unknown or imprecisely estimated outcomes and probabilities. Most real-life decisions involve uncertainty.
3. The precautionary principle is meant to ensure absence of scientific certainty is not used to postpone actions to protect people and environment from credible threats of serious harm.
Risk and uncertainty are related, but different concepts that many people struggle to understand. This presentation defines and explains the difference between risk and uncertainty and how they are measured, so that they can be properly managed in a business context.
Please add any comments or feedback, and share this presentaiton with your colleagues, thanks!
Feel free to contact me via LinkedIn if you have any questions:
http://www.linkedin.com/in/kelvinstott
Alternatively, please visit or join our LinkedIn group, ’Big Ideas in R&D Productivity & Project / Portfolio Management’:
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Big-Ideas-in-Pharma-R-4322249
This document provides an overview of a course on critical thinking and decision making. It introduces course objectives, assignments, and key topics that will be covered such as critical thinking skills, decision making processes, identifying assumptions and biases, and overcoming barriers to effective thinking. The document outlines phases of critical thinking and questions students should ask themselves to evaluate arguments and make well-reasoned decisions.
Critical thinking is reflective reasoning about beliefs and actions used to determine if claims are true. It traces to Socratic questioning in Ancient Greece and involves examining propositions to assess if they correspond to reality. Critical thinking requires skills like observation, interpretation, evaluation, and inference as well as intellectual traits like open-mindedness, integrity, and courage. The purpose is to use reason to improve the quality of thinking on any subject.
INDECS LLP is an independent risk management consultancy established in 1988 that formerly operated as Taylor Risk Consulting. It has 3 partners and 8 staff members based in London. INDECS only works with insured companies and not brokers or underwriters. Its core services include claims consultancy, risk solutions, an energy practice, and due diligence work. It has experience working with over 60 clients in 36 countries across various industries.
The document discusses decision making and problem solving. It covers defining problems, gathering relevant information to analyze problems, and generating and selecting alternatives. The problem solving process involves defining the problem, collecting information and measures, analyzing the problem, generating alternatives, selecting alternatives, and deciding on and implementing a solution. Cause and effect diagrams like fishbone diagrams can be used to identify and analyze the root causes of problems. Collecting the right information through questions is important for fully understanding problems before attempting to solve them.
9. engineered solution providers.Westney’s focus is on large, complex engineering and construction projects that carry significant risk to the financial stakeholders. These are typically in the upstream oil & gas, LNG, renewable and alternative energy, power, mining & minerals, and chemical manufacturing industries. The company works on a global basis and projects are often in difficult international locations. www.westney.com
20. Project Due Diligence included independent risk assessments (cost, time NPV), “PDRI” readiness reviews, Sanction Readiness Reviews helped turnaround troubled projects
21. Proxy NPV Modeling provided strategic decision information for largest project ever undertaken by deepwater GOM operator
22. Project Delivery System Health Check and Capital at Risk analysis to guide post-merger organization strategy; support for subsequent implementation
23. Facilitation of enhanced country strategy in light of significant changes in host government
67. Independent assessment of pipeline project cost and schedule risk exposure provided major holding company with material data for use in SEC financial reporting
68. Independent assessment of risks and execution strategy provided to private equity firm considering investment in new energy technology startup
69. Project risk management provided to chemical manufacturing developer in support of the private equity firm financing FEL
79. Development and implementation of improved work processes assisted subsea production facilities provider in meeting challenges of very large integrated projects.
89. Provided State of Alaska (Department of Natural Resources) in the implementation of the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act with integrated risk assessments, proposal evaluations and oversight.
90. Supported a government-owned energy company in the development of hydropower with independent readiness reviews, risk assessments, and work process developments
91. Expert advisor to major reorganization effort of a government agency regulating offshore development