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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 622 612 602 598 592 588 582 572 562
SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 3834 3781 3728 3699 3675 3646 3622 3569 3516
RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4471 4385 4299 4264 4213 4178 4127 4041 3955
JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 17781 17486 17191 17013 16896 16718 16601 16306 16011
CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4826 4758 4690 4661 4622 4593 4554 4486 4418
CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4334 4275 4216 4178 4157 4119 4098 4039 3980
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 646 629 612 603 595 586 578 561 544
SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 4341 4136 3931 3800 3763 3726 3595 3521 3316
RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4680 4518 4356 4292 4194 4130 4032 3870 3708
JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 19105 18340 17575 17205 16810 16440 16045 15280 14515
CHANA 20 JUL 2015 5126 4968 4810 4721 4652 4563 4494 4336 4178
CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4712 4517 1313 4227 4109 4023 3905 3701 3497
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 115 113 111 110 109 108 107 106 105
COPPER 30 JUN 2015 388 385 382 381 379 378 376 373 370
CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 3988 3944 3900 3878 3856 3834 3812 3768 3724
GOLD 05 AUG 2015 2727
7
27154 27031 26964 26908 26841 26785 26662 26539
LEAD 30 JUN 2015 124 122 120 119 118 117 116 114 112
NATURAL GAS 25 JUN 2015 191 187 182 179 178 175 174 169 165
NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 894 876 858 850 840 832 822 804 786
SILVER 03 JUL 2015 3749
7
37217 36937 36764 36657 36484 36377 36097 35817
ZINC 30 JUN 2015 141 139 137 136 135 134 133 131 129
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 119 116 113 111 110 108 107 104 101
COPPER 30 JUN 2015 427 412 397 388 382 373 367 352 337
CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 4554 4317 4080 3968 3843 3731 3606 3369 3132
GOLD 05 AUG 2015 27939 27592 27245 27071 26898 26724 26551 26204 25857
LEAD 30 JUN 2015 144 136 128 123 120 115 112 104 96
NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 237 217 197 187 177 167 157 137 117
NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 980 936 892 867 848 823 804 760 716
SILVER 05 JUL 2015 39087 38310 37533 37062 36756 36285 35979 3520 34425
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ China
Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, data showed
today, as the world's second biggest economy shows protracted weakness in the face of
government easing measures.
The disappointing figures also come as leaders try to transform the economy from one where
growth is driven by consumer spending rather than government investment and exports.
Imports slumped 17.6 percent year on year to USD 131.26 billion, the General Administration
of Customs said in a statement. The decline was much sharper than the median forecast of a 10
percent fall in a Bloomberg News poll of economists and followed April's 16.2 percent drop.
✍ G7 Meetings
US President Barack Obama urged fellow leaders of the G7 to stand up to "Russian aggression
in Ukraine" as he enjoyed a traditional Bavarian welcome ahead of their summit in Germany.
One of the many issues G7 leaders would be discussing during their two-day summit was
"standing up to Russian aggression," Obama said in opening remarks as he was welcomed by
German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
In a sign of togetherness designed to show absentee President Vladimir Putin the unity of the
G7 over the Ukraine crisis, Obama said ties between the United States and Germany were "one
of the strongest alliances the world has ever known."
He also hailed the "enduring friendship" between the American and German people in a speech
warmly applauded by Bavarians in traditional dress, quaffing beer and munching pretzels.
For her part, Merkel praised the United States as an "essential partner" despite occasional
"differences of opinion." Traditionally strong US-German ties have been tested by a spying
scandal including the alleged tapping of Merkel's mobile phone, and more recently by reports
of joint US-German surveillance of European political and economic targets, which has put
Merkel under domestic pressure.
The US and Germany shared "common values", Merkel stressed, in an apparent reference to
Putin whose Russia was expelled from the G7 after Moscow's annexation of Crimea. EU
President Donald Tusk, also attending the meeting, said he wanted to "reconfirm G7 unity on
sanctions policy" against Russia.
Obama and Merkel were speaking in the tiny village of Kruen ahead of the two-day summit at
the nearby Elmau Castle. As well as Ukraine, the leaders are also expected to discuss the Greek
debt crisis and the threat posed worldwide by jihadist terrorism.
✍ IMF
Policymakers in Asia need to put greater emphasis on "growth-friendly" fiscal policy to sustain
growth momentum in the face of demographic changes that could weigh on their economies, a
senior official of the International Monetary Fund said.
Aging populations and falling birth rates are shrinking labour forces in Asian countries, which
will cause economic growth to slow, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, deputy managing director of the
IMF, told a forum on fiscal policy on Wednesday.
"Sound fiscal management becomes more challenging in the face of these demographic
changes because increased spending for aging populations and shrinking tax bases will
undermine fiscal soundness," he said.
Furusawa said global growth is still modest after the global financial crisis and medium-term
prospects are less optimistic for some advanced economies and especially for emerging
markets.
Japanese Vice Finance Minister Ichiro Miyashita, speaking at the forum, said the country is
"surely going to raise" the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April 2017 as planned.
✍ BULLION
✍ Gold
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket
of six major currencies, dipped 0.6% to hit 95.82, moving off Friday's highs of 96.95. The
greenback weakened after rallying sharply on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report bolstered
expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this year.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in May, well ahead
of economists forecast for 220,000. The upbeat data underlined the view that the economy is on
track to rebound after a weak first quarter and bolstered expectations that the Fed could start
raising rates at its September policy meeting.
Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the
precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.
Meanwhile, developments surrounding talks between Greece and its international creditors
remained in focus.
Over the weekend European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged Greek Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras to come up with alternative economic reforms "swiftly" so that
negotiations could continue this week.
Athens delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday after Tsipras
rejected the proposed reforms put forward by the EC as 'absurd'. Also on the Comex, silver
futures for July delivery shed 2.7 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at $15.95 a troy ounce.
Silver prices fell to $15.93 on Friday, the weakest level since May 1, before closing at $15.98,
down 11.9 cents, or 0.74%. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery tacked on 0.7
cents, or 0.25%, to trade at $2.699 a pound.
On Friday, futures slumped to $2.670, a level not seen since April 23, before inching up 0.5
cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.692. Official trade data released Monday showed that China's
copper arrivals in May fell 16.3% from a month earlier to 360,000 metric tons.
The country's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion last month from $34.2 billion in April,
compared to estimates for a surplus of $45.0 billion. Chinese exports fell 2.5% from a year
earlier, while imports tumbled 17.6%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 10.7%.
A slowdown in domestic demand indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile
and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in six
years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce further
easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.
Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures,
including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major
banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is the
world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand.
✍ Silver
Silver futures were trading lower in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators
exited positions in the precious metal as a pickup in US retail sales signaled a rebound in the
world’s biggest economy, prompting the case for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time
since 2006, in the coming months, dimming the lure for the bullion as a store of value.
US retail sales surged 1.2 per cent in May 2015 from the previous month, when they climbed a
revised 0.2 per cent.
At the MCX, Silver futures for July 2015 contract is trading at Rs 36,756 per 1 kg, down by
0.15 per cent after opening at Rs 36,732, against the previous closing price of Rs 36,812.
✍ ENERGY
✍ Natural gas
Natural gas prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Monday, as investors returned to
the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses. On the New York Mercantile
Exchange, natural gas for delivery in July jumped 7.0 cents, or 2.68%, to trade at $2.660 per
million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. On Friday, natural gas prices slumped
3.6 cents, or 1.37%, to end at $2.590.
Prices hit a five-week low of $2.556 on June 4. Futures were likely to find support at $2.556
per million British thermal units, the low from June 4, and resistance at $2.724, the high from
June 3.
The July natural gas contract declined 2.5 cents, or 1.97%, last week, the third straight weekly
loss, as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead and concerns over ample
supplies weighed.
Weather forecasting models called for mostly normal temperatures across the U.S. through
mid-June, suggesting little demand for the fuel and paving the way for additional hefty
inventory builds in the weeks ahead.
Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme
temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 132
billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 121 billion and following a build of 112
billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Supplies rose by 118 billion cubic feet in the same
week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 92 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.233 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 50.7% higher
than during the same week a year earlier and 1.0% above the five-year average for this time of
year.
Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have made
up for all of last winter's unusually strong demand. The EIA's next storage report slated for
release on Thursday, June 4 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubic feet
for the week ending June 5.
Supplies rose by 109 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average
change is an increase of 89 billion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery
in July shed 48 cents, or 0.8%, to trade at $58.63 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery
dipped 0.53% to trade at $1.859 per gallon.
✍ Crude Oil
Crude futures fell sharply on Monday as energy traders continued to react to the long-term
ramifications of OPEC's decision last Friday to keep its production ceiling above 30 million
barrels per day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 1.00 or 1.70% to
58.12, extending a recent skid over the last week. U.S. crude futures traded between 57.88 and
59.12 on a light day of trading.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.69 or 1.07% to
62.62, falling for the fourth time in five sessions. The spread between the international and U.S.
benchmarks of crude rose to $4.50, above Friday's level of $4.23.At a semi-annual meeting of
its members on Friday in Vienna, OPEC decided to maintain production at its current level – a
move which caused crude to spike roughly 1.5% on the session.
An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices,
which has been weighed down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. Traders will also
monitor a bid by Indonesia to return to OPEC.
Indonesia, which suspended OPEC membership in 2008 when its import level exceeded its
amount of crude exports, announced its intention to pursue full membership in the cartel at the
meeting.The inclusion of the Southeast Asian emerging nation could help level the global
supply-demand balance. Indonesia consumes around 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and is
seeking supply agreements with OPEC members in order to import more oil, according to
reports.
Also on Monday, crude prices slid amid disappointing import and export data in China. In May,
the Asian nation's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion, up from $34.2 billion a month earlier.
Exports fell by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, while imports declined by more than 17%.
In terms of crude, Chinese imports fell to 5.47 million bpd a decline of 26% on a
year-over-year basis. In April, China became the world's largest importer of crude. Chinese
imports fell sharply last month, as the nation's state-owned oil company drew from its
enormous stockpiles while its tankers off the Strait of Malacca continued to horde cheaper
crude. Energy traders await the release of weekly U.S. crude stockpiles at the middle of this
week for further indications on current supply levels. Last Friday, oil services firm Baker
Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by four on the week to
642, the lowest level since August, 2010.
It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Though U.S. shale producers have
been forced to slash drilling due to the lower price of crude, they have still maintained high
production levels by keeping their more efficient rigs online. The U.S. Dollar Index, which
measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies,
plummeted 1.09% to 95.34.
✍ BASE METAL
✍ Copper
Copper prices moved further away from a six-week low on Tuesday, after disappointing
Chinese inflation data added to speculation policymakers will have to introduce further
stimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery tacked
on 1.2 cents, or 0.43%, to trade at $2.708 a pound during European morning hours after hitting
an intraday peak of $2.715, the most since June 4.
A day earlier, copper inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.15%, to close at $2.696. Futures were likely to
find support at $2.670, the low from June 5, and resistance at $2.731, the high from June 4.
Government data released earlier showed that Chinese inflation for May rose 1.2%, below
expectations for 1.3% and down from 1.5% in April. The producer price index fell by a
more-than-expected 4.6% last month, underling concerns over the health of the world's second
largest economy.
Disappointing trade data released on Monday indicated a recovery in the broader economy
remains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the
slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to
introduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.
Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures,
including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major
banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth.
The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global
demand. Elsewhere, gold futures for August delivery tacked on $3.00, or 0.26%, to trade at
$1,176.60 a troy ounce, while silver futures for July delivery rose 7.3 cents, or 0.46% to trade
at $16.03 an ounce.
✍ Zinc
Zinc futures fell by 0.66 per cent on Thursday at the domestic markets after US consumer
confidence fell 1.7 percentage points in June, declining for the second consecutive month and
to its lowest level this year which reduced the demand outlook for the metal. The Thomson
Reuters/IPSOS Primary Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index fell to 55.0 in June from 56.7
in May. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 136.15 per kg, down
by 0.66 per cent after opening at Rs. 137.15 against the previous closing price of Rs. 137.05. It
touched the intra-day low of Rs. 1335.90 till the trading. (At 3.50 PM today). Major refined
zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc
importing countries are China, USA and Germany.
✍ Lead
Lead prices rose by 0.93 per cent on Wednesday at the domestic markets due to the decline in
the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for
the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 1225 metric tonnes to 154975 metric tonnes as on June
10, 2015. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg,
up by 0.93 per cent, after opening at Rs 123.60, against a previous close of Rs 123.45. It
touched an intra-day high of Rs 124.90 till the trading. (At 3.15 PM today) Prices also rose as
participants enlarged positions taking positive cues from the global market and rising spot
demand.
✍ Nickel
Nickel futures surged in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculators
booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel in
the domestic spot market. Traders are eying the China industrial output data due for release on
Thursday which may show that factory production grew by 6 per cent, year on year in May
2015, up from an annual 5.9 per cent rise in April 2015 and 5.6 per cent in March 2015, which
was the weakest growth since 2008. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2015 contract is
trading at Rs 864.50 per 1 kg, up by 0.78 per cent after opening at Rs 860.80, against the
previous closing price of Rs 857.80.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ Refined soya
Falling for the third straight day, refined soya oil prices shed 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10
kg in futures trade on friday owing to slackened demand in the spot market against sufficient
stocks.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in
August month fell by Rs 1.95, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg with an open interest of
2,27,290 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in June contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.04 per cent to
Rs 604.80 per 10 kg in 14,865 lots.Offloading of positions by traders on the back of subdued
demand in the spot market against adequate stocks kept pressure on the refined soya oil prices.
✍ Chana
Amid profit-booking by speculators after recent gains and subdued spot demand, chana prices
eased 0.17 per cent to Rs 4,705 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday.However, lower
output estimates this marketing year capped the fall.At National Commodity and Derivative
Exchange, chana for delivery in July declined Rs 8, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 4,705 per quintal
with an open interest of 1,69,180 lots.Also, the commodity for delivery in June contracts shed
Rs 4, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 4,645 per quintal in 19,160 lots.Demand in the spot market against
adequate stock position mainly led to slide in chana prices.
✍ Mustardseed
Taking positive cues from spot markets on rising demand,mustardseed prices were up by Rs 35
to Rs 4,110 per quintal in futures trading on Tuesday, as participants enlarged their
exposures.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchangeplatform, mustardseed for
delivery in current month, June contracts was trading higher by Rs 35, or 0.86 per cent to Rs
4,110 per quintal, in an open interest of 29,410 lots.In similar lines, most-active delivery in July
contracts surged by Rs 30, or 0.73 per cent to Rs 4,150 per quintal, with an open interest of
76,800 lots.Iincreased positions built up by participants, tracking a firm trend at physical
marketes, mainly lifted mustardseed prices at futures trade.
✍ Castorseed
Castorseed prices rebounded in futures trading today as a result of the rise in demand from
consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged
the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015
contract was trading at Rs. 4,020 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.5 per cent, after opening at Rs.
3,992 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,000. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,990
till the trading. (At 12.25 PM today). Traders attributed recovery in castroseed prices to
emergence of buying at lower levels in spot markets. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is
the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.
✍ Jeera
Jeera prices closed higher by 1.34 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the
commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for
June 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,590 per quintal, up by 1.34 per cent, after opening at Rs.
16,470 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,370. It touched the intra-day high of Rs.
16,470. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical
markets and some export enquiries.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market
Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained
herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the
intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities
Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be
responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research
expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions
in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to
buy any securities or commodities.
All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical
& fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any
liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product
services of their own choices.
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Ways2Capital commodity report 15 june 2015

  • 1.
  • 2. ✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 622 612 602 598 592 588 582 572 562 SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 3834 3781 3728 3699 3675 3646 3622 3569 3516 RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4471 4385 4299 4264 4213 4178 4127 4041 3955 JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 17781 17486 17191 17013 16896 16718 16601 16306 16011 CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4826 4758 4690 4661 4622 4593 4554 4486 4418 CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4334 4275 4216 4178 4157 4119 4098 4039 3980 ✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 646 629 612 603 595 586 578 561 544 SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 4341 4136 3931 3800 3763 3726 3595 3521 3316 RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4680 4518 4356 4292 4194 4130 4032 3870 3708 JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 19105 18340 17575 17205 16810 16440 16045 15280 14515 CHANA 20 JUL 2015 5126 4968 4810 4721 4652 4563 4494 4336 4178 CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4712 4517 1313 4227 4109 4023 3905 3701 3497
  • 3. ✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS DALLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 115 113 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 COPPER 30 JUN 2015 388 385 382 381 379 378 376 373 370 CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 3988 3944 3900 3878 3856 3834 3812 3768 3724 GOLD 05 AUG 2015 2727 7 27154 27031 26964 26908 26841 26785 26662 26539 LEAD 30 JUN 2015 124 122 120 119 118 117 116 114 112 NATURAL GAS 25 JUN 2015 191 187 182 179 178 175 174 169 165 NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 894 876 858 850 840 832 822 804 786 SILVER 03 JUL 2015 3749 7 37217 36937 36764 36657 36484 36377 36097 35817 ZINC 30 JUN 2015 141 139 137 136 135 134 133 131 129 ✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 119 116 113 111 110 108 107 104 101 COPPER 30 JUN 2015 427 412 397 388 382 373 367 352 337 CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 4554 4317 4080 3968 3843 3731 3606 3369 3132 GOLD 05 AUG 2015 27939 27592 27245 27071 26898 26724 26551 26204 25857 LEAD 30 JUN 2015 144 136 128 123 120 115 112 104 96 NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 237 217 197 187 177 167 157 137 117 NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 980 936 892 867 848 823 804 760 716 SILVER 05 JUL 2015 39087 38310 37533 37062 36756 36285 35979 3520 34425
  • 4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ✍ China Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, data showed today, as the world's second biggest economy shows protracted weakness in the face of government easing measures. The disappointing figures also come as leaders try to transform the economy from one where growth is driven by consumer spending rather than government investment and exports. Imports slumped 17.6 percent year on year to USD 131.26 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement. The decline was much sharper than the median forecast of a 10 percent fall in a Bloomberg News poll of economists and followed April's 16.2 percent drop. ✍ G7 Meetings US President Barack Obama urged fellow leaders of the G7 to stand up to "Russian aggression in Ukraine" as he enjoyed a traditional Bavarian welcome ahead of their summit in Germany. One of the many issues G7 leaders would be discussing during their two-day summit was "standing up to Russian aggression," Obama said in opening remarks as he was welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In a sign of togetherness designed to show absentee President Vladimir Putin the unity of the G7 over the Ukraine crisis, Obama said ties between the United States and Germany were "one of the strongest alliances the world has ever known." He also hailed the "enduring friendship" between the American and German people in a speech warmly applauded by Bavarians in traditional dress, quaffing beer and munching pretzels. For her part, Merkel praised the United States as an "essential partner" despite occasional "differences of opinion." Traditionally strong US-German ties have been tested by a spying scandal including the alleged tapping of Merkel's mobile phone, and more recently by reports of joint US-German surveillance of European political and economic targets, which has put Merkel under domestic pressure. The US and Germany shared "common values", Merkel stressed, in an apparent reference to Putin whose Russia was expelled from the G7 after Moscow's annexation of Crimea. EU President Donald Tusk, also attending the meeting, said he wanted to "reconfirm G7 unity on sanctions policy" against Russia. Obama and Merkel were speaking in the tiny village of Kruen ahead of the two-day summit at the nearby Elmau Castle. As well as Ukraine, the leaders are also expected to discuss the Greek
  • 5. debt crisis and the threat posed worldwide by jihadist terrorism. ✍ IMF Policymakers in Asia need to put greater emphasis on "growth-friendly" fiscal policy to sustain growth momentum in the face of demographic changes that could weigh on their economies, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund said. Aging populations and falling birth rates are shrinking labour forces in Asian countries, which will cause economic growth to slow, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, deputy managing director of the IMF, told a forum on fiscal policy on Wednesday. "Sound fiscal management becomes more challenging in the face of these demographic changes because increased spending for aging populations and shrinking tax bases will undermine fiscal soundness," he said. Furusawa said global growth is still modest after the global financial crisis and medium-term prospects are less optimistic for some advanced economies and especially for emerging markets. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Ichiro Miyashita, speaking at the forum, said the country is "surely going to raise" the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April 2017 as planned. ✍ BULLION ✍ Gold The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.6% to hit 95.82, moving off Friday's highs of 96.95. The greenback weakened after rallying sharply on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this year. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in May, well ahead of economists forecast for 220,000. The upbeat data underlined the view that the economy is on track to rebound after a weak first quarter and bolstered expectations that the Fed could start raising rates at its September policy meeting. Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Meanwhile, developments surrounding talks between Greece and its international creditors remained in focus. Over the weekend European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to come up with alternative economic reforms "swiftly" so that negotiations could continue this week. Athens delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday after Tsipras
  • 6. rejected the proposed reforms put forward by the EC as 'absurd'. Also on the Comex, silver futures for July delivery shed 2.7 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at $15.95 a troy ounce. Silver prices fell to $15.93 on Friday, the weakest level since May 1, before closing at $15.98, down 11.9 cents, or 0.74%. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery tacked on 0.7 cents, or 0.25%, to trade at $2.699 a pound. On Friday, futures slumped to $2.670, a level not seen since April 23, before inching up 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.692. Official trade data released Monday showed that China's copper arrivals in May fell 16.3% from a month earlier to 360,000 metric tons. The country's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion last month from $34.2 billion in April, compared to estimates for a surplus of $45.0 billion. Chinese exports fell 2.5% from a year earlier, while imports tumbled 17.6%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 10.7%. A slowdown in domestic demand indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures, including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand. ✍ Silver Silver futures were trading lower in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators exited positions in the precious metal as a pickup in US retail sales signaled a rebound in the world’s biggest economy, prompting the case for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, in the coming months, dimming the lure for the bullion as a store of value. US retail sales surged 1.2 per cent in May 2015 from the previous month, when they climbed a revised 0.2 per cent. At the MCX, Silver futures for July 2015 contract is trading at Rs 36,756 per 1 kg, down by 0.15 per cent after opening at Rs 36,732, against the previous closing price of Rs 36,812. ✍ ENERGY ✍ Natural gas Natural gas prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Monday, as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in July jumped 7.0 cents, or 2.68%, to trade at $2.660 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. On Friday, natural gas prices slumped
  • 7. 3.6 cents, or 1.37%, to end at $2.590. Prices hit a five-week low of $2.556 on June 4. Futures were likely to find support at $2.556 per million British thermal units, the low from June 4, and resistance at $2.724, the high from June 3. The July natural gas contract declined 2.5 cents, or 1.97%, last week, the third straight weekly loss, as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead and concerns over ample supplies weighed. Weather forecasting models called for mostly normal temperatures across the U.S. through mid-June, suggesting little demand for the fuel and paving the way for additional hefty inventory builds in the weeks ahead. Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 132 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 121 billion and following a build of 112 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Supplies rose by 118 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 92 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.233 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 50.7% higher than during the same week a year earlier and 1.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have made up for all of last winter's unusually strong demand. The EIA's next storage report slated for release on Thursday, June 4 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 5. Supplies rose by 109 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 89 billion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in July shed 48 cents, or 0.8%, to trade at $58.63 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery dipped 0.53% to trade at $1.859 per gallon. ✍ Crude Oil Crude futures fell sharply on Monday as energy traders continued to react to the long-term ramifications of OPEC's decision last Friday to keep its production ceiling above 30 million barrels per day. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 1.00 or 1.70% to 58.12, extending a recent skid over the last week. U.S. crude futures traded between 57.88 and 59.12 on a light day of trading. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.69 or 1.07% to
  • 8. 62.62, falling for the fourth time in five sessions. The spread between the international and U.S. benchmarks of crude rose to $4.50, above Friday's level of $4.23.At a semi-annual meeting of its members on Friday in Vienna, OPEC decided to maintain production at its current level – a move which caused crude to spike roughly 1.5% on the session. An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices, which has been weighed down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. Traders will also monitor a bid by Indonesia to return to OPEC. Indonesia, which suspended OPEC membership in 2008 when its import level exceeded its amount of crude exports, announced its intention to pursue full membership in the cartel at the meeting.The inclusion of the Southeast Asian emerging nation could help level the global supply-demand balance. Indonesia consumes around 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and is seeking supply agreements with OPEC members in order to import more oil, according to reports. Also on Monday, crude prices slid amid disappointing import and export data in China. In May, the Asian nation's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion, up from $34.2 billion a month earlier. Exports fell by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, while imports declined by more than 17%. In terms of crude, Chinese imports fell to 5.47 million bpd a decline of 26% on a year-over-year basis. In April, China became the world's largest importer of crude. Chinese imports fell sharply last month, as the nation's state-owned oil company drew from its enormous stockpiles while its tankers off the Strait of Malacca continued to horde cheaper crude. Energy traders await the release of weekly U.S. crude stockpiles at the middle of this week for further indications on current supply levels. Last Friday, oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by four on the week to 642, the lowest level since August, 2010. It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Though U.S. shale producers have been forced to slash drilling due to the lower price of crude, they have still maintained high production levels by keeping their more efficient rigs online. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, plummeted 1.09% to 95.34. ✍ BASE METAL ✍ Copper Copper prices moved further away from a six-week low on Tuesday, after disappointing Chinese inflation data added to speculation policymakers will have to introduce further stimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery tacked on 1.2 cents, or 0.43%, to trade at $2.708 a pound during European morning hours after hitting
  • 9. an intraday peak of $2.715, the most since June 4. A day earlier, copper inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.15%, to close at $2.696. Futures were likely to find support at $2.670, the low from June 5, and resistance at $2.731, the high from June 4. Government data released earlier showed that Chinese inflation for May rose 1.2%, below expectations for 1.3% and down from 1.5% in April. The producer price index fell by a more-than-expected 4.6% last month, underling concerns over the health of the world's second largest economy. Disappointing trade data released on Monday indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth. Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures, including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of major banks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand. Elsewhere, gold futures for August delivery tacked on $3.00, or 0.26%, to trade at $1,176.60 a troy ounce, while silver futures for July delivery rose 7.3 cents, or 0.46% to trade at $16.03 an ounce. ✍ Zinc Zinc futures fell by 0.66 per cent on Thursday at the domestic markets after US consumer confidence fell 1.7 percentage points in June, declining for the second consecutive month and to its lowest level this year which reduced the demand outlook for the metal. The Thomson Reuters/IPSOS Primary Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index fell to 55.0 in June from 56.7 in May. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 136.15 per kg, down by 0.66 per cent after opening at Rs. 137.15 against the previous closing price of Rs. 137.05. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 1335.90 till the trading. (At 3.50 PM today). Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany. ✍ Lead Lead prices rose by 0.93 per cent on Wednesday at the domestic markets due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 1225 metric tonnes to 154975 metric tonnes as on June 10, 2015. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg, up by 0.93 per cent, after opening at Rs 123.60, against a previous close of Rs 123.45. It touched an intra-day high of Rs 124.90 till the trading. (At 3.15 PM today) Prices also rose as
  • 10. participants enlarged positions taking positive cues from the global market and rising spot demand. ✍ Nickel Nickel futures surged in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel in the domestic spot market. Traders are eying the China industrial output data due for release on Thursday which may show that factory production grew by 6 per cent, year on year in May 2015, up from an annual 5.9 per cent rise in April 2015 and 5.6 per cent in March 2015, which was the weakest growth since 2008. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2015 contract is trading at Rs 864.50 per 1 kg, up by 0.78 per cent after opening at Rs 860.80, against the previous closing price of Rs 857.80. ✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ Refined soya Falling for the third straight day, refined soya oil prices shed 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg in futures trade on friday owing to slackened demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August month fell by Rs 1.95, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg with an open interest of 2,27,290 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in June contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.04 per cent to Rs 604.80 per 10 kg in 14,865 lots.Offloading of positions by traders on the back of subdued demand in the spot market against adequate stocks kept pressure on the refined soya oil prices. ✍ Chana Amid profit-booking by speculators after recent gains and subdued spot demand, chana prices eased 0.17 per cent to Rs 4,705 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday.However, lower output estimates this marketing year capped the fall.At National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July declined Rs 8, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 4,705 per quintal with an open interest of 1,69,180 lots.Also, the commodity for delivery in June contracts shed Rs 4, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 4,645 per quintal in 19,160 lots.Demand in the spot market against adequate stock position mainly led to slide in chana prices.
  • 11. ✍ Mustardseed Taking positive cues from spot markets on rising demand,mustardseed prices were up by Rs 35 to Rs 4,110 per quintal in futures trading on Tuesday, as participants enlarged their exposures.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchangeplatform, mustardseed for delivery in current month, June contracts was trading higher by Rs 35, or 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,110 per quintal, in an open interest of 29,410 lots.In similar lines, most-active delivery in July contracts surged by Rs 30, or 0.73 per cent to Rs 4,150 per quintal, with an open interest of 76,800 lots.Iincreased positions built up by participants, tracking a firm trend at physical marketes, mainly lifted mustardseed prices at futures trade. ✍ Castorseed Castorseed prices rebounded in futures trading today as a result of the rise in demand from consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015 contract was trading at Rs. 4,020 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.5 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,992 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,000. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,990 till the trading. (At 12.25 PM today). Traders attributed recovery in castroseed prices to emergence of buying at lower levels in spot markets. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India. ✍ Jeera Jeera prices closed higher by 1.34 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for June 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,590 per quintal, up by 1.34 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,470 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,370. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 16,470. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical markets and some export enquiries.
  • 12. LEGAL DISCLAIMER This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities. All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices. Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.