The document discusses the increasing water scarcity impacting agriculture, which remains the largest consumer of freshwater resources despite a decline in its relative share by 2050. It raises concerns over declining water supply reliability, water pollution, and climate change effects on water availability and food security. The need for improved water management, economic incentives, and complementary agricultural investments is emphasized to address these challenges.

1. How to Ensure Sustainable Access to
Water for Food in a World of Growing
Scarcity
Claudia Ringler
"New Green Revolution? Meeting the Global Food and
Energy Demands
March 4-6, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois

2. SUMMARY
1. Agriculture continues as largest single user of
freshwater resources in 2050 for all regions,
although its share declines relative to industrial
and domestic uses
2. Sectoral competition and other water scarcity
related problems will intensify
3. Growing water scarcity will increasingly
constrain food production growth, causing
adverse impacts on food security and human
wellbeing goals
4. An increasing share of food production stems
from often unsustainable groundwater use
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3. SUMMARY
5. Reliability of agricultural water supply is projected
to decline without improved water management
policies
6. Water pollution will increasingly constrain water
availability and food production, particularly in
developing countries. Water quality problems are
more difficult to resolve and have long-run
consequences
7. While globally the amount of water withdrawn for
biofuels is modest, local water scarcity problems
may worsen due to direct and indirect impacts from
agricultural water use for feedstock production
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4. SUMMARY
8. Climate change will impact water resources
for all uses--in particular ag water use--
through gradual changes in precipitation,
runoff, evaporative demands, and sea-level
rise in productive delta areas, as well as
through increased number and severity of
extreme events (floods/drought/storms)
9. Water conservation and productivity
enhancement in rainfed and irrigated
agriculture are needed to offset growing
impacts of water scarcity on the environment
and risks to farmers
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5. SUMMARY
10. There is significant untapped potential to
use economic incentives for agricultural
water management
11. For agricultural water use to fulfill its full
potential complementary investments in
agricultural technologies (seeds,
fertilizer), rural infrastructure (roads,
telecommunications) and in
complementary sectors (education,
health) are needed
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6. Drivers of growing water scarcity
1. Population growth & urbanization
2. Economic growth Changing diets
3. Intensification of agricultural production
(Water quality implications)
4. Nonag demand (Industrialization/ ENV)
5. Higher energy prices
6. Growing demand for non-food crops
7. Climate variability and climate change
8. Slowing investments in water (some change
in SSA)
9. Unsustainable use & poor management
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7. IFPRI IMPACT Food Producing Units
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8. Water use in agriculture

9. Projected changes in per capita water
supply (SRES B2 CC scenario)
 2000 2050
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
CWANA SSA LAC NAE ESAP
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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10. Growing Food Demand (Cereal Demand
2000, and projected 2025 & 2050)
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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11. Rapid Increase in Per Capita Meat
Consumption, 2000-2050
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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12. Projected changes in irrigation and
other water consumption
 2000 2050
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri
CWANACWANA SSA SSA LAC LAC NAE NAE ESAP ESAP
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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13. Water quality is declining in many parts of
the developing world
• In developing countries poor water quality is driven
by industrialization, urbanization, and intensification
of agriculture
• Threats to water quality are greatest in areas where
water is scarce
• In Eastern Europe, Central and South America,
China, and India water quality declined because of
metals, pathogens, acidification, and organic matter
• Nutrient concentrations have increased in rivers
throughout the world
• Water quality in the developing world is less well
monitored and data comparability is problematic
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14. Projected changes in harvested
irrigated area
300 
250
200 CWANA
ESAP
150
LAC
100 NAE
50 SSA
0
2000 2025 2050
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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15. Projected declining irrigation water
supply reliability
 2000 2050
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
CWANA SSA LAC NAE ESAP
Source: IMPACT Model Projections
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16. Projected changes in total agricultural
water use
10000
 9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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17. Energy cost, Climate variability
& change

18. Higher Energy Prices:
..make HP more attractive, and more water use for
biofuels
500 70
Corn
450 Rice
Sugar 60
Oil seeds
400
Crude oil (right)
350 50
Price (US$/barrel)
Price (US$/mt)
300
40
250
30
200
150 20
100
10
50
0 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

19. Biofuel expansion: small regional but
potentially large local impacts
Moderate biofuel Drastic biofuel
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Change in irrigation water depletion
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Source: IMPACT Model Projections

20. Water Scarcity & Drought Stress
Proportion of failed
growing seasons
for rainfed
cultivation, 100
year weather
simulation
Source: Hyman et al. (2008)
Note: The figure illustrates 100 year weather simulation based on historic data analysis
 Drought
• Lowers average expected yields
• Increases production risk, reducing technology adoption of
poor farmers
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21. Change in average cereal yield: Baseline and w/o
climate change, 2000 and projected 2050
2000 2050 no CC 2050 baseline
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
CWANA ESAP LAC SSA
Source: IMPACT Model Projections (SRES B2 scenario)
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22. Change in wheat yield (%) due to climate change
with hydrologic effects, 2000-2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRESB2 scenario (with
IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects), April 2008
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23. Global price of wheat:
Baseline and without climate change, 2000-2050
wheat no CC wheat CC wheat CC_noCO2
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
2048
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRESB2 scenario (with IMAGE
temperature and CO2 fertilization effects), April 2008
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24. Avenues for Policy Reform
and Investment

25. Challenges to be Met
 Rapid economic, technological, and
climate change
 Significantly increasing water scarcity both
in terms of quantity and quality
 Need to reform water management,
policies, and investments to improve water
use efficiency
 Need to increase flexibility of water and
food systems and adaptability to stress
 Look for solutions outside the water sector
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26. Support for Improved Demand
Management: Incentives and Flexibility
 Facilitation of intersectoral water
transfers
 Finance multisector negotiation for
water transfers
 Establishment of water rights
 Establishment of economic
incentives in water allocation
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27. Public-Private Partnerships
 Devolution of irrigation infrastructure and
management to WUA
• Build on existing social capital or patterns of
cooperation
• Supportive policy and legal environment
including
– Establishment and adjudication of secure water
rights including property rights over infrastructure
– Monitoring and regulating externalities and third
party effects of irrigation
– Provide technical and organizational training and
support
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28. Economic Incentives for Efficient
Water Use
 Establish economic incentives
• Establish water rights for users
• Direct price increases for households and
industry, with subsidies targeted to the
poor
• Irrigation water price increase can be
punitive to farmers
• Design pricing mechanisms to pay
irrigators to use less water
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29. Water and Irrigation Investment
 Increased investment in household water
supply and sanitation
 Selective investments to expand irrigation,
drainage and storage
• Technological development (drip, micro-
sprinkler, real-time management)
• High financial and environmental costs,
but some expansion necessary
 Increasing profitability of storage means
expanded opportunities
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30. Agricultural Research and Technology
 Increasing crop productivity: water
management, agricultural research and
rural investment
• Emphasis on crop breeding for both
irrigated and rainfed agriculture
– genetic modifications to develop stress tolerant
materials to address water scarcity, salinization
and groundwater contamination
• Water harvesting, minimum tillage,
integrated soil fertility management
• Rural infrastructure investment to improve
access to markets, credit, inputs
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31. Increasing the Openness of
Agricultural Trade
 Trade will increase dramatically under
climate change scenarios
 Openness of trade will increase efficiency in
irrigation water use
 Need to restore confidence in international
trading system
• Complete the WTO Doha Round trade
negotiations
• Reduce agricultural subsidies and trade barriers
• Establish international facility to finance
emergency food imports
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