In 2010, the Hungarian government led by Mr. Viktor Orbán has started the war on banks with a dual goal of filling state coffers with extra taxes and restoring majority local ownership in the banking sector, dominated by foreign players.
Investment in Poland and support programsJames Deiotte
Presentation for investors considering a move to Poland. Provided overview of macroeconomic environment and incentive programs from the EU and Polish government
There are about 50 thousand companies in Poland funded through FDI, which amounts to only 1% of all businesses operating in our market. The number keeps growing because Poland is an attractive marketplace - our economy is considered to be one of the fastest growing economies in the Europe. Have you thought about starting a business in Poland? Not yet? Check how easy it is!
Investment in Poland and support programsJames Deiotte
Presentation for investors considering a move to Poland. Provided overview of macroeconomic environment and incentive programs from the EU and Polish government
There are about 50 thousand companies in Poland funded through FDI, which amounts to only 1% of all businesses operating in our market. The number keeps growing because Poland is an attractive marketplace - our economy is considered to be one of the fastest growing economies in the Europe. Have you thought about starting a business in Poland? Not yet? Check how easy it is!
The 2nd week assignment is drafted for in the purposes of the international peer-to-peer review and EMDE emerging market in developing economy course offered by the WBG World Bank
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
This case study examines what linking Migrant Worker Scan and Personal Demographic Service data together can tell us about when and how new international migrants appear on different data sources. The slides summarise the findings on registration lags and explore differences between EU and non-EU nationals. The case study looks at both the lag between arrival and registration for a NINo, and arrival and registration with the NHS. The findings from this case study provide important insights that will be key to the successful development of a population and migration statistics system based on administrative data sources.
This case study aims to understand the activity patterns of international migrants in income and benefit data. The slides summarise what research is already published on these activity patterns and illustrate what exploratory research, using linked administrative data sources, can further tell us. The findings from this case study provide important insights which are key to the successful development of a population and migration statistics system based on administrative data sources.
This slide pack illustrates the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) research into developing an alternative approach to producing administrative data-based population stocks and flows.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Allocations of distressed investments look set to increase in 2015, with funds increasingly pouring money into Europe, according to Debtwire Europe’s 11th European Distressed Debt Outlook, produced in association with Rothschild and Orrick.
Presentation by Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt, CFS, SAFE, and CEPR at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
FTM: Macro- and micro-economic storytellingDomen Savič
Project Money Trail’s primary focus is, initially, on Slovenian journalists with a demonstrated pre-existing interest in the topics that its workshops will cover, because they are the easiest for a Slovenia-based NGO to successfully attract. Working primarily with local journalist will also make it easier for Project Money Trail to evaluate the success of the project.
Project Money Trail has a secondary focus on regional journalists for its current workshops in part because Project Money Trail intends to expand its program beyond Slovenia, in part because educating regional journalists is a way for Project Money Trail to ensure that the influence of its workshops is wide ranging and long lasting and in part because regional journalists will bring a valuable range of perspectives and experience to these workshops.
For later workshops, as Project Money Trail succeeds in reaching its initial goal of educating Slovenian journalists and journalism-focused educators, Project Money Trail’s focus will shift to prioritize journalists and educators from other countries in the region.
Project Money Trail’s approach will build on that of a successful Croatian program with similar, although more limited objectives. Project Money Trail will reach a different (Slovenian and regional) audience than the Croatian program, and will also be more ambitious in its goals, including in particular the creation of a universally accessible teaching and learning tool, the website described above.
Aldo AndreoniHead of International Department @Unicredit Bulbank
Italian Festival in Bulgaria 2010
Forum economico “Bulgaria-Italia: insieme per uscire dalla crisi”
Sofia, 7 giugno 2010
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
La gran banca europea pone a punto sus balancesPwC España
Desde el inicio de la crisis, la gran banca europea ha reducido su tamaño –sólo entre 2012 y 2013 sus activos cayeron un 11%-, ha mejorado sus ratios de capital y ha rebajado sensiblemente su exposición al riesgo. Además, ha ampliado su número de depósitos un 14,5% y ha aumentado su liquidez un 78%. Sin embargo, todavía sigue pendiente de ajustarse a nuevas exigencias regulatorias.
The 2nd week assignment is drafted for in the purposes of the international peer-to-peer review and EMDE emerging market in developing economy course offered by the WBG World Bank
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
This case study examines what linking Migrant Worker Scan and Personal Demographic Service data together can tell us about when and how new international migrants appear on different data sources. The slides summarise the findings on registration lags and explore differences between EU and non-EU nationals. The case study looks at both the lag between arrival and registration for a NINo, and arrival and registration with the NHS. The findings from this case study provide important insights that will be key to the successful development of a population and migration statistics system based on administrative data sources.
This case study aims to understand the activity patterns of international migrants in income and benefit data. The slides summarise what research is already published on these activity patterns and illustrate what exploratory research, using linked administrative data sources, can further tell us. The findings from this case study provide important insights which are key to the successful development of a population and migration statistics system based on administrative data sources.
This slide pack illustrates the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) research into developing an alternative approach to producing administrative data-based population stocks and flows.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Allocations of distressed investments look set to increase in 2015, with funds increasingly pouring money into Europe, according to Debtwire Europe’s 11th European Distressed Debt Outlook, produced in association with Rothschild and Orrick.
Presentation by Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt, CFS, SAFE, and CEPR at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
FTM: Macro- and micro-economic storytellingDomen Savič
Project Money Trail’s primary focus is, initially, on Slovenian journalists with a demonstrated pre-existing interest in the topics that its workshops will cover, because they are the easiest for a Slovenia-based NGO to successfully attract. Working primarily with local journalist will also make it easier for Project Money Trail to evaluate the success of the project.
Project Money Trail has a secondary focus on regional journalists for its current workshops in part because Project Money Trail intends to expand its program beyond Slovenia, in part because educating regional journalists is a way for Project Money Trail to ensure that the influence of its workshops is wide ranging and long lasting and in part because regional journalists will bring a valuable range of perspectives and experience to these workshops.
For later workshops, as Project Money Trail succeeds in reaching its initial goal of educating Slovenian journalists and journalism-focused educators, Project Money Trail’s focus will shift to prioritize journalists and educators from other countries in the region.
Project Money Trail’s approach will build on that of a successful Croatian program with similar, although more limited objectives. Project Money Trail will reach a different (Slovenian and regional) audience than the Croatian program, and will also be more ambitious in its goals, including in particular the creation of a universally accessible teaching and learning tool, the website described above.
Aldo AndreoniHead of International Department @Unicredit Bulbank
Italian Festival in Bulgaria 2010
Forum economico “Bulgaria-Italia: insieme per uscire dalla crisi”
Sofia, 7 giugno 2010
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
La gran banca europea pone a punto sus balancesPwC España
Desde el inicio de la crisis, la gran banca europea ha reducido su tamaño –sólo entre 2012 y 2013 sus activos cayeron un 11%-, ha mejorado sus ratios de capital y ha rebajado sensiblemente su exposición al riesgo. Además, ha ampliado su número de depósitos un 14,5% y ha aumentado su liquidez un 78%. Sin embargo, todavía sigue pendiente de ajustarse a nuevas exigencias regulatorias.
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
The Netherlands – with a spotlight on construction and transport industry sectors
Spain – with a spotlight on construction and automotive industry sectors
United States of America
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Poland
Indonesia
EY's European Banking Barometer – 2015 identifies the views of 226 senior European bankers across 11 markets regarding their views of the macro-economic outlook and the impact they think it will have on the banking industry in 2015.
For further information visit: www.ey.com/ebb
Slides from the Nevin Economic Research Institute's post Budget seminar. Speakers Michelle Murphy (Social Justice Ireland), Cormac Staunton (TASC) and Michael Taft (UNITE)
Investment led Growth: Expectations vs RealityIlias Lekkos
The aim of our study is twofold: first we intend to investigate the factors that drive the most dynamic and productive part of gross fixed capital formation, namely the “private non-residential” investments in the short and medium –term. Secondly looking to the long-term we attempt to estimate the equilibrium level of investment activity that is in line with the new long-term potential GDP growth of the Greek Economy.
Headwinds Defied: Poland's Banking Sector Thrives Amid Economic ShiftsInteliace Research
In Q2 2023, Poland's economy faced a near-zero GDP growth, influenced by factors like heightened inflation, increased interest rates, and a challenging external environment. National Bank of Poland (NBP) responded promptly in Q3 2023 with interest rate cuts, though facing criticism alleging it to be election-related and premature. The NBP's strategic shift from aggressive rate hikes in 2022 to cuts in 2023 is expected to act as a cushion, potentially facilitating a soft landing for the economy throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Nevertheless, the rapid swing in monetary policy is likely to have repercussions, potentially leading to persistent higher inflation and potential setbacks in economic performance down the road.
The surge in market interest rates, rising from zero to approximately 6.5% in 2022, had a profound impact on the banking sector. The escalating cost of money significantly influenced the new investment demand of corporations, while simultaneously limiting the capacity of individuals to secure new loans. Conversely, the notably higher interest rates, though still below inflation, spurred interest in depositing funds in banks. Consequently, overall client deposits at banks reached PLN 1.92 trillion in Q2 2023, reflecting an 11%+ change over 1½ years since the end of 2021. Concurrently, client loans experienced a contraction of over 2%, decreasing from PLN 1.29 trillion at the close of 2021 to PLN 1.26 trillion in Q2 2023. However, the impact of higher interest rates has proven overall beneficial for banks thus far. In 2022, banks operating in Poland recorded PLN 93 billion in net revenue (EUR 20 billion) and realized PLN 10.8 billion in net profits (EUR 2.4 billion).
Despite all these challenges, the outlook for the sector remains fairly favorable. Elevated interest rates and higher-than-normal inflation are likely to boost banking volumes in nominal terms, ultimately leading to higher margins. It is plausible to expect a 10-12% year-on-year increase in client deposits through 2025, and a 4-6% growth in outstanding loans during the same period. Additionally, total banking assets are projected to grow steadily, potentially reaching PLN 3.5 trillion by the end of 2025.
For more details, please refer to the complete research report on Poland's banking, accessible at: https://tinyurl.com/PLBANK23
As of 2022, Insurance premium written p.a. within CEE14 region (Central and Eastern Europe) was worth €43.6 billion . Poland came first in the region with nearly € 15.4 billion in premium and 35 % regional share. Poland's insurance sector is stable and it is shaped by two long term trends. A continuous , solid growth within the non-life segment. A stagnation in the life sector
However, while premium income is projected to accelerate in the mid-term, insurers' profitability is likely to stagnate. Insurers will need to make substantial investments to effectively defend their profitability. The insurance sector in Poland is undergoing a gradual evolution, with consolidation being one of key processes. Recently, a few players decided to leave the market and a number of M&A deals have been closed. Prominent transactions include the acquisition of Aegon by VIG, the acquisition of Aviva by Allianz, and the integration of MetLife by Nationale Nederlanden. Through consolidation, mid-sized insurers are able to scale up their operations and enhance profitability in the face of rising costs, required investments, and tariff pressures. Consolidation within the sector presents various benefits.
https://tiny.pl/chsfr
Bank challengers in Europe keep growing very fast. Only the eight major players*, including Revolut, N26, TransferWise, Monzo, Monese, Starling, Curve, and Tandem served nearly 27 million customers as of the end of 2019. In fact, their number of clients has increased exponentially as the figure doubled every year since 2016. Considering current trends, it can be expected that the selected group of bank challengers will get over 50 million clients by 2021. And, this is only a part of the broader market since there are dozens of other players across Europe already operating or planning a launch.
Total assets under management (AuM) in Poland across key segments: investment funds, insurance, and pension assets decreased slightly in H1 2018 to PLN 627 billion. The recent stagnation in assets under management was largely an effect of the weaker performance of the local stock market in the first half of 2018 which translated into lower valuations of equity portfolios. The correction affected mostly 2nd pillar pension funds, which by law have to overweight equities. Other segments remained relatively stable thanks to new contributions offsetting weaker performance.
Banking sector. Banking volumes have continued to grow fast during 2016, despite relatively unfavourable regulatory environment. Deposits of non-financial clients at banks recorded a strong 11% YoY increase to nearly PLN 1.1 trillion while lending increased a bit slower, at 5% YoY to PLN 1.11 trillion. The growth of volumes was balanced across all client segments, however, retail deposits advanced particularly fast. As a consequence of growing key volumes, total banking assets increased by 7% YoY to a record of PLN 1.71 trillion as of December 2016.
Niezamierzone konsekwencje podatku bankowego w Polsce 2016Inteliace Research
• Podatek bankowy spowoduje obniżenie marż odsetkowych w dużych bankach o 7% do 27%, przy czym najmocniej dotknie kredyty dla firm (dużych) oraz kredyty mieszkaniowe, gdzie marże są najniższe.
• Konstrukcja podatku, nie uwzględniająca ryzyka poszczególnych aktywów będzie zachęcać do redukowania zaangażowania w kredyty o niskiej marży (kredyty dla firm oraz mieszkaniowe) i jednocześnie zachęci do powiększania zaangażowania w kredytach konsumpcyjnych (najwyższe marże), co wydaje się niekorzystne z punktu widzenia ogólnogospodarczego.
• Prawdopodobne jest nasilenie zjawiska przejmowanie obsługi kredytowej największych przedsiębiorstw przez banki zagraniczne.
• Opodatkowanie aktywów w połączeniu z kwotą wolną podatku oraz zwolnieniem aktywów skarbowych, będzie dodatkowo promować banki małe i utrwalać niższą efektywność w sektorze bankowym.
Currently, most card transactions in Europe originate from three major markets, the UK, France and Germany. Extreme differences exist in Europe in terms of cards usage. While Norwegians use a payment card almost daily, Greeks make it less than once a month, on average.
Die größten Verbrauchermärkte in Europa: BIP pro Kopf vs. Zahl der Haushalte, 2014.
Die meisten Kartentransaktionen in Europa finden in drei wichtigsten Märktenstatt
Die europäischen Märkte befindenin verschiedenenEntwicklungsphasen
In Europa existieren extreme Unterschiede in Bezug auf die Kartennutzung
The value of outstanding mortgage lending in Poland was up a 6% in 2014, reaching a total 351 billion PLN at year end. This is still a fraction of GDP. A lot room for growth,
Cash is still king in Poland. But the situation is slowly changing... Payment infrastructure in Poland could be substantially expanded. Will a 50% difference in credit/debit interchange fee (0.3% vs.0.2%) reverse the fall in credit cards in Poland?
Levelwise PageRank with Loop-Based Dead End Handling Strategy : SHORT REPORT ...Subhajit Sahu
Abstract — Levelwise PageRank is an alternative method of PageRank computation which decomposes the input graph into a directed acyclic block-graph of strongly connected components, and processes them in topological order, one level at a time. This enables calculation for ranks in a distributed fashion without per-iteration communication, unlike the standard method where all vertices are processed in each iteration. It however comes with a precondition of the absence of dead ends in the input graph. Here, the native non-distributed performance of Levelwise PageRank was compared against Monolithic PageRank on a CPU as well as a GPU. To ensure a fair comparison, Monolithic PageRank was also performed on a graph where vertices were split by components. Results indicate that Levelwise PageRank is about as fast as Monolithic PageRank on the CPU, but quite a bit slower on the GPU. Slowdown on the GPU is likely caused by a large submission of small workloads, and expected to be non-issue when the computation is performed on massive graphs.
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Adjusting OpenMP PageRank : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
For massive graphs that fit in RAM, but not in GPU memory, it is possible to take
advantage of a shared memory system with multiple CPUs, each with multiple cores, to
accelerate pagerank computation. If the NUMA architecture of the system is properly taken
into account with good vertex partitioning, the speedup can be significant. To take steps in
this direction, experiments are conducted to implement pagerank in OpenMP using two
different approaches, uniform and hybrid. The uniform approach runs all primitives required
for pagerank in OpenMP mode (with multiple threads). On the other hand, the hybrid
approach runs certain primitives in sequential mode (i.e., sumAt, multiply).
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
https://www.meetup.com/unstructured-data-meetup-new-york/
This meetup is for people working in unstructured data. Speakers will come present about related topics such as vector databases, LLMs, and managing data at scale. The intended audience of this group includes roles like machine learning engineers, data scientists, data engineers, software engineers, and PMs.This meetup was formerly Milvus Meetup, and is sponsored by Zilliz maintainers of Milvus.
1. THE WAR ON BANKS IN HUNGARY, 2010-2015
by Inteliace Research
August 2015
Version: c1
2. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
HARSH TAXES HAVE BEEN IMPOSED ON BANKS IN HUNGARY SINCE 2010
2
- Most banks go into the
red and need extra
capital.
- Foreign owners consider
market exit.
- Heavy taxation imposed
on credit institutions.
- Government steps-in
and buys stakes in
troubled banks.
- Foreign investors
withdraw.
- Taxes are slowly
phased-out once
ownership structure
changes.
Goal: Raising tax revenues and reducing foreign ownership in the banking sector in Hungary
Key taxes and regulatory actions affecting banks in Hungary
• Tax on assets. Tax introduced in 2010. Major banks forced to pay a record 0.53% rate annually on their
2009 assets. Tax rate to be reduced to 0.31% in 2016 and possibly lowered again in 2017-2019. So far,
nearly € 3 billion has been raised with the tax.
• Financial transactions tax. Financial transactions are charged with a 0.3% levy as a general rule.
Modifications exist in relation to cash transactions and credit cards.
• Forced bailout of FX mortgage holders. Debtors were allowed to repay mortgage loans at a
preferential rate of CHFHUF of 180, which resulted in a loss for banks in excess of EUR 1 billion.
• Settlement Act. Banks have been forced to retroactively compensate for excessive fees, interest and
spreads charged in the past that have been assessed as unlawful.
• Charge on municipal debt held by banks. Banks needed to pay a 7 percent charge on troubled
municipal debt that the government took over in 2013.
* Lending portfolio less impairment
Source: MNB, press, Inteliace Research
3. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
THE „WAR ON BANKS” LEAD TO AN UNPRECEDENTED DECREASE IN TOTAL
LENDING
3
* Lending portfolio less impairment
Source: MNB - PSZAF, Inteliace Research
Outstanding lending to enterprises and households by credit institutions, 2010-2014,
in EUR billion
The recent „war on
banks” in Hungary has
contributed to a
reduction in total
lending to households
and to the corporate
sector by a combined
EUR 17+ billion.
Contraction by
EUR 6.5 billion
or 26%
25.1
- 6.5
18.6
2010 Change 2010-2014 2014
Loans to non-
financial
enterprises
(net value*
Loans to
households
(net value*)
29.1
- 10.6
18.4
2010 Change 2010-2014 2014
Contraction by
EUR 10.6 billion
or 37%
4. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
-236
-47
51
-373
-293
-137
-329
-247
3
-65
23.9
7.9
7.1
6.6
6.1
6.1
5.5
4.1
3.4
2.8
OTP Bank
Kereskedelmi és Hitelbank
UniCredit Bank Hungary
Raiffeisen Bank Zrt.
ERSTE Bank Hungary
MKB Bank
CIB Bank
OTP Jelzálogbank
MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank
Budapest Hitel- és Fejlesztési
Bank
EXCESSIVE TAXES AND CHARGES PUSHED EIGHT OUT OF TOP TEN BANKS
IN HUNGARY INTO RED IN 2014
4Source: Banks, MNB, Inteliace Research
Profit after tax, EUR millionBankRank
10
7
9
8
6
5
3
4
2
1
Top 10 banks in Hungary by total assets, 2014
Total assets , EUR billion
Total
TOP 10
73.6 -1673
The combined loss
of top 10 banks in
Hungary in 2014
exceeded € 1.6
billion
• As a consequence of
multiple charges and taxes
banks have been forced to
take massive write-offs.
• In 2014, eight out of top ten
banks went into red.
• In case of two banks, loss
after tax exceeded the
average annual equity,
which means a full
shareholder wipe-out.
• Troubled banks are in a
focus of the government,
which is eager to take-over
significant stakes in banks
at the fraction of their initial
value.
5. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
AS EXPECTED, THE SHARE OF FOREIGN CAPITAL HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER,
ALSO THE LOCAL PRIVATE CAPITAL HAS SUFFERED
5
Examples of foreign investors
exiting banking sector in Hungary
• 2014: Bayerische Landesbank decided
to sell its MKB Bank (7% market share
by assets as of 2013) to the Hungarian
Government. BayernLB received only
EUR 55 million, while its total
investments in the troubled MKB have
totalled EUR 2 billion since 1994.
• 2014: GE Capital agreed to sell its
subsidiary Budapest Bank (3.2% market
share by assets as of 2013) to
Hungarian Treasury for up to $700
million.
• 2014: Citibank has announced quitting
retail operations in Hungary.
• 2015: Erste Bank (8.4% market share
by assets as of 2013) agreed to dispose
up to 30 per cent stake in the bank, via
capital increase to the Hungarian
government and the EBRD.
16 15 13 14
37 37
15
12
9 11
10 9
69 73
78 75
53 54
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Ownership structure of credit institutions – share in
capital, 2010-2015 Q1, in percent
Total= 100%
Direct foreign
ownership
Direct
domestic
public
ownership
Direct
domestic
private
ownership
Although, foreign ownership has fallen significantly recently, also
the share of local private owners has been reduced.
Source: MNB, Inteliace Research
Unwanted
consequence:
the share of
local private
owners is also
falling.
6. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
WHILE THE BENEFITS OF „WAR ON BANKS” ARE MOSTLY OF A POLITICAL
NATURE, COSTS WIL BE REAL
6
• Political goal of Viktor Orbán government
achieved – Majority of banks in local hands
before 2016.
• Dependency of banks in Hungary on policy
changes of foreign banks resulting from
situation in the global markets will be reduced.
• Future dividend streams to foreign bank
owners will be reduced – provided there will be
enough profits to distribute.
BENEFITS COSTS
• Lending volumes to the Hungarian economy
and households have dropped by over 30%
during 2010-2014 and the recovery might be
long. The access to external funding is likely to
be reduced. Consequently, the lower availability
of credit to the Hungarian economy will reduce
its growth and/or force enterprises to use
alternative financing or banks from abroad.
• The share of banks in hands of Hungarian
government will increase substantially with all
the consequences known from other markets :
lower innovation, risk of corruption, using banks
for political purposes, weak management etc.
Poorly managed banks are likely to need state
bailouts in the future.
• Lower competition and increased taxation will
inevitably result in effectively higher cost of
banking services (even if hidden) to Hungarian
consumers and enterprises.
Cost and benefits of current „war on banks” in Hungary
Source: Inteliace Research
7. Inteliace Research
HUNGARY–THEWARONBANKS
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7
More on CEE banks see: http://www.inteliace.com/en/00138_List_of_Top_200_banks_in_CEE_2015.html