EY-European-Banking-Barometer-2H13

European Banking Barometer – 2H13
A brighter outlook?

Contents
Page
1 Introduction 3
2 European overview 6
3 Economic environment 8
4 European sovereign debt crisis 11
5 B i tl k d f 145 Business outlook and focus areas 14
6 Business priorities and product line expectations 30
7 Headcount 44
8 Contacts 50
European Banking Barometer – 2H13Page 2

Introduction
As part of EY’s commitment to building a better working world, we have developed the European Banking Barometer to
provide our clients with insight into the macro-economic outlook and its impact on the European banking industry over the
next six months.
Now in its fourth edition, the latest bi-annual study consists of 184 interviews with senior bankers across 11 markets:
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.
The fieldwork was conducted via an online questionnaire and telephone interviews between September and October
2013 We interviewed respondents from a range of financial institutions covering at least 50% of banking assets in each2013. We interviewed respondents from a range of financial institutions covering at least 50% of banking assets in each
market.
A range of bank types were interviewed in each market to ensure the study is a fair reflection of each country’s banking
industry. Interviews were not conducted with subsidiaries of member/group banks.
The res lts in this report are presented in an aggregate market format and sho n in percentages Please note someThe results in this report are presented in an aggregate market format and shown in percentages. Please note, some
charts may not add up to 100% as percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number. Where possible, we
have compared and contrasted the data against the European Banking Barometer – 1H13.
We would like to thank all the research participants for their contribution to the study.
If you would like to take part in our next European Banking Barometer study, please speak to your usual EY contact
or refer to your local-country contact on page 50.

Composition of the survey sample by bank type
Bank type*
3434 Universal (large-scale banking group/major bank)
Corporate and investment
Private bank/Wealth management
Specialist (e.g., consumer credit, savings, or a bank that doesn’t offer a current account)
Retail and business (SME business banking)
11
10
10
* Numbers in the pie chart reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.
Please note that given the structure of the German and Swiss banking markets, respondents in these two countries were provided with country-specific bank types that have been reallocated to our five European bank types as follows:
For Germany, big banks and regional banks were reallocated to universal banks; foreign banks (not head-quartered in Germany) were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers were reallocated to private banks/wealth
t i b k d ti b k ll t d t t il d b i b k d t l b ildi i ti b ildi l i ti d t b k ll t d t i li t b k
management; savings banks and cooperative banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and central building societies, building loan associations and mortgage banks were reallocated to specialist banks.
For Switzerland, major banks were reallocated to universal banks; investment banks were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers (general or limited partnership) and banks under foreign control were reallocated to
private banks/wealth management; cantonal banks, and regional and savings banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and securities traders were reallocated to specialist banks.

Composition of the survey sample by bank type
M k t T t l U i l
Corporate and
i t t
Private bank/
Wealth
t S i li t
Retail and
business
( ti )
Retail and
business
( t t d)
Retail and
business
(privately
d)
Type of bank
Market Total Universal investment management Specialist (cooperative) (state owned) owned)
Austria 10 9 0 0 1 0 0 0
Belgium 16 4 0 4 1 0 1 6
France 21 7 2 2 1 1 2 6
Germany 41 9 3 2 2 8 15 2y
Italy 18 6 3 0 2 5 0 2
Netherlands 10 2 1 1 4 0 0 2
Nordics 14 8 1 0 4 0 0 1
Poland 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 2
Spain 13 5 1 1 2 1 0 3
Switzerland 10 2 0 4 0 0 3 1
UK 23 4 10 5 2 0 1 1
Europe 184 62 21 19 19 15 22 26Europe 184 62 21 19 19 15 22 26

European overview
The outlook for the European banking sector is brighter than it has been at any time in the past two years. Banks
anticipate an improved performance over the next six months as stronger balance sheets, a healthier economy
and a fading sovereign debt crisis allow them to turn their thoughts to growth. However, numerous challenges
remain. The industry has yet to fully absorb the potential implications of the European Central Bank’s Assetremain. The industry has yet to fully absorb the potential implications of the European Central Bank s Asset
Quality Review and restructuring and job cuts will continue as banks try to make the most of a more benign
economic environment to progress strategic transformation initiatives.
European banks are increasingly positive about the macro-economic environment.
► For the first time since the launch of EY’s European Banking Barometer a majority of banks are optimistic about the economic
tl k Fift i t f th d t ti i t th i th i k t i i th t i thoutlook. Fifty-six percent of the respondents now anticipate the economy in their market improving over the next six months
compared with just 25% in 1H13. Polish, Spanish and UK banks are the most optimistic, with 86%, 77% and 74% respectively
forecasting economic improvement.
► An increasing number of banks also believe the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is receding following signs that countries at the
heart of the crisis are regaining competitiveness. Thirty-five percent of banks now expect the sovereign debt crisis will have a
diminished impact on the banking sector in the next six months while just 16% fear an increased impact, compared with 20%g j
and 35% respectively in 1H13.
► Nevertheless, the recovery remains weak, as illustrated by the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut, and Eurozone GDP
is only expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2014 or 2015.
Regulatory compliance is taking up an increasing amount of management focus.
► Risk and regulation have overtaken cost cutting and efficiency as the key agenda items for European banks► Risk and regulation have overtaken cost cutting and efficiency as the key agenda items for European banks.
► Preparing for Basel III displaced risk management as the most critical agenda item for banks, with 73% of respondents thinking it
was very important. Risk management slipped to second, with 60% of the respondents citing it as a very important agenda item.
► In the wake of mis-selling scandals many banks are now placing more emphasis on compliance with consumer regulation and
remediation. This was the fifth most important agenda item, with 49% of banks saying it was a very important activity.
► Tactical cost cutting slipped to eighth place – the first time this has fallen out of the top five. Just 45% see this as a critical
► Tactical cost cutting slipped to eighth place the first time this has fallen out of the top five. Just 45% see this as a critical
priority. Banks are now more focused on strategic cost initiatives such as streamlining processes as they prepare for growth.
Page 6

European overview
Eurozone banks expect to strengthen their balance sheets ahead of the Asset Quality Review (AQR).
► European banks have already made strides in reducing the size of their balance sheets, and many will continue to do so. Forty-
four percent of banks expect to continue shrinking their balance sheets in the next six months. Only Polish banks, which are the
most optimistic about the economic outlook, believe they are now less likely to shrink their balance sheet.p , y y
► Smaller balance sheets have enabled many banks to reduce their reliance on central bank funding in the last six months, and
51% plan to continue repaying funds in the next six. Only French banks, which are also the most pessimistic about the economy
and sovereign debt crisis, anticipate increased demand for central bank funding.
► Eurozone banks are also likely to boost loan loss provisions (LLPs) ahead of the AQR. Thirty-four percent of all banks expect
to increase LLPs in the next six months, with Spanish and Italian banks anticipating the greatest increase. Only UK banks, which
t bj t t th AQR ll t LLP t dare not subject to the AQR, generally expect LLPs to decrease.
Industry restructuring will continue, with most banks focusing on adjusting their footprint in the European market.
► Fifty-six percent of banks expect to either buy or sell assets, or enter a joint venture in the next six months. The vast majority
of this activity – 91% of asset purchases and 86% of sales and joint ventures - will be within the European market.
► Seventy-three percent of banks anticipate consolidation in the next 12 months, and 86% anticipate consolidation within the nexty p p , p
three years. The next year will largely see small-scale consolidation, with larger-scale activity happening in two to three years,
as stronger balance sheets should leave banks in a better position to make major acquisitions.
Stronger balance sheets and a brighter outlook mean banks are turning thoughts to growth.
► Fifty percent of banks anticipate launching specific initiatives to promote growth in the next six months.
► Forty five percent of banks also expect to increase lending to customers Lending policies will also be less restrictive for most► Forty-five percent of banks also expect to increase lending to customers. Lending policies will also be less restrictive for most
sectors, especially to small and medium enterprises where 50% of banks expect looser lending criteria.
► However, increased availability of credit may still be insufficient to meet increased demand and there are signs that some
markets are moving to a more US based market funding model. In the UK, the Netherlands and the Nordics, banks expect
demand for debt and equity funding to outstrip demand for corporate lending.
► Banks are most optimistic about the prospects for private banking, with 53% anticipating an improved outlook. As a capital-light
p p p p g, p g p p g
business, many global banks see private banking as an engine for growth.
Page 7

Economic environment

Uncertainty has given way to optimism, with most banks now
expecting the economic outlook to improve
How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?*
2H13
1 8 35 53 3
4 20 50 23 2
1H13
Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Stay the same Improve slightly Improve significantly
Comments: For the first time since the launch of EY’s European Banking Barometer, a majority of banks expect the economic
outlook to strengthen. This optimism reflects improving economic indicators that suggest after a protracted downturn the
recovery is taking hold across Europe. Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013 after a record 18 month
contraction. Furthermore, strong Purchasing Manager Index data for a number of European countries points to growth
becoming embedded. Nevertheless, as illustrated by the ECB’s recent rate cut, the recovery remains weak and Eurozone GDP
is only expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2014 or 2015, over six years after the start of the crisis.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered "Don't know".

Polish, Spanish and UK banks expect the greatest economic
improvement
2H13
How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?*
1H13
1 8
20
35
38
40
53
63
40
3Europe
Belgium
Austria
4 20
21
38
50
71
38
23
7
25
2Europe
Belgium
Austria
Net
increase
-13
-14
1
Net
increase
20
63
47
5
14
20
6
5
29
29
40
50
37
33
36
40
44
59
33
21Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
17
16
14
40
25
19
40
64
30
50
54
24
21
20
8
27
12
10
8
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France -36
8
-34
-10
7
-1
54
38
20
43
26
50
23
14
65
50
69
86
9
8
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Remain at today's levels Improve slightly Improve significantly
3
3
3
8
11
10
16
15
64
55
41
46
19
31
34
31
3
6
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland 8
21
18
8
86
77
50
74
Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Remain at today s levels Improve slightly Improve significantly

European sovereign debt crisis

Concerns about the exposure of the banking sector to
sovereign debt are beginning to recede…
What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your
market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*
4 31 48 15 1
2H13
1 19 46 27 8
1H13
Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact
Comments: More than twice as many banks expect the impact of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis on their banking sector to
diminish over the next six months than expect it to increase. This is a remarkable reversal of the results in the previous edition
of the Barometer, and is underpinned by a return to growth in the Eurozone and signs that countries at the heart of the crisis are
regaining competitiveness; Spanish and Greek labor costs are in steady decline, while the Spanish and Italian Governments are
now running current account surpluses.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.

…with all countries except Austria, France and Poland
expecting the impact of the sovereign debt crisis to diminish
What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your
market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*
4
6
31
38
20
48
50
60
15
6
20
1Europe
Belgium
Austria
2H13
1 19
29
13
46
36
63
27
36
13
8
13
Europe
Belgium
Austria
1H13
Net
increase
13
7
15
Net
increase
0
-38
19
7
2
5
4
50
30
33
29
19
31
36
50
39
44
52
48
7
28
24
24
15
20
1
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
8
4
1
29
40
8
19
24
19
64
30
42
54
36
46
7
30
42
22
24
27
5
12
8
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe 15
8
8
26
-10
22
-19
0
-7
-5
-10
50
9
15
7
35
30
46
50
56
50
23
100
36
20
15
7
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
3
19
10
9
23
29
44
45
41
38
64
31
34
34
15
7
6
7
16
23
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics -22
15
41
28
18
-50
0
-46
-10
-44
Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact

Business outlook and focus areas

European banks are more optimistic about their own
performance than at any time in the last 18 months
How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*
2H13
1 11 28 51 9
2 14 31 46 8
1H13
Weaken significantly Weaken slightly Stay the same Strengthen slightly Strengthen significantly
Comments: The degree to which respondents expect their bank’s performance to strengthen reflects both the improvingg p p p g p g
economic outlook and a generally healthier banking sector. Despite lingering concerns about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
and the US debt ceiling, the macro-economic outlook is more stable. Additionally, most banks have made progress improving
the quality of their balance sheet. Regulation and the drive to reduce leverage have led banks to dispose of, or reduce exposure
to, non-core assets and businesses, and many institutions are beginning to look for opportunities to grow revenues. Dutch
banks have the most improved outlook, while only German banks are more pessimistic about their performance than in 1H13.
This pessimism may, in part, be driven by capital regulation. Historically German banks have held a higher level of hybrid capital
than their European counterparts, but this will no longer be possible under Basel III.
p p g p

Only German respondents expect their banks’ overall
performance to deteriorate
How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*
Europe
Belgium
Austria 1H13
2H13
3.503.38
3.36 3.63
3.43 3.56
3 573 32
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
3.573.32
3.15
3.613.25
2.90 3.80
2.93
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
3.93 4.07
2.92 3.25
3.813.54
3 38 3 60
1 2 3 4 5
UK
Switzerland
Weaken
significantly
Strengthen
significantly
3.38 3.60
3.89 3.91
Stay the same
* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Weaken significantly’ and 5 denotes ‘Strengthen significantly’.

With the Asset Quality Review looming, one-third of banks
expect to increase loan loss provisions
Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*
2H13
1 12 54 26 8
3 12 53 28 4
1H13
Decrease significantly Decrease slightly Stay the same Increase slightly Increase significantly
Comments: Despite improving economic indicators, many European banks expect to increase loan loss provisions (LLPs) in
the next six months. This is unsurprising; the ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR) – which will stress test bank balance sheets –
will be based on 2013 year-end data. As a result Eurozone banks are likely to increase provisions for potentially troublesome
loans in Q4. While Spanish and Italian banks expect the greatest increase in LLPs, UK banks, which are not subject to the AQR,
generally expect LLPs to decrease.

Spanish and Italian banks are most likely to increase their
loan loss provisions in the next six months
Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*
Europe
Belgium
Austria
3.503.25
3.14 3.25
3.19 3.27
3.333.24
1H13
2H13
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
3.14
3.613.33
2.90 3.50
Spain
Poland
Nordics
2.71 3.00
3.313.00
3.63 3.77
3.10
1 2 3 4 5
UK
Switzerland
3.10
3.112.87
Decrease
significantly
Increase
significantly
Stay the same
* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Decrease significantly’ and 5 denotes ‘Increase significantly’.

Lending prospects will improve for most sectors…
How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your market to change in each of the following
sectors over the next six months?*
2H131H13
21
11
20
35
40
50
32
16
21
17
35
33
E i i d i l **
Healthcare
SMEs
Net less
restrictive
Net less
restrictive
12
19
30
29
20
11
12
19
11
21
26
27
27
28
34
35
25
19
22
21
21
32
24
25
21
25
28
17
Retail and consumer products**
Information technology
Commercial and professional services**
Media and telecommunications
Manufacturing and industrials (incl. chemicals, eng.)**
Energy, mining and minerals** -15
7
4
-1
6
-1
14
23
9
15
16
6
29
26
30
37
17
17
19
23
More restrictive Less restrictive
38
37
49
51
16
10
18
16
Transport (incl. automotive and shipping)**
Financial services
Construction
Commercial real estate -35
-31
-27
-22
-14
-11
-9
-12
Comments: Since our previous Barometer, and despite one third of banks expecting to increase loan loss provisions, the outlook for
lending has improved across most sectors. However, lending to a few sectors, including construction and commercial real estate will
continue to tighten. The small and medium sized enterprise (SME) sector is expected to see the greatest loosening of lending policies.
SMEs are benefitting from both the improving economic environment and the efforts of national governments and the European
Investment Bank (EIB) to boost lending to the sector. The UK, which is not subject to the Asset Quality Review and is the second most
optimistic country about economic growth, is the only market where lending is expected to be less restrictive for all sectors.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents who answered "Don't know".
** Energy and mining includes minerals, Manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering, Commercial services includes professional services, Retail includes consumer products and Transport includes automotive and shipping.

…although lending policies for construction and commercial
real estate will continue to be restricted in all countries…
29
7
13
21
50
12
41
40
27
21
21
41
Austria Belgium France
29
14
43
14
29
29
43
71
29
43
43
28
SMEs
Healthcare
Energy and mining**
Manufacturing**
Media and telecomms
Commercial services** 33
22
50
33
11
30
22
33
10
11
22
20
43
60
40
29
53
33
7
13
20
12
Germany Italy Netherlands
14
14
57
57
71
71
43
29
29
14
14
14
Retail**
Commercial real estate
Construction
Financial services
Transport** 30
22
13
22
11
10
40
33
13
22
11
10
12
13
36
4
18
13
12
20
66
38
36
41
21
26
20
20
SMEs
Healthcare
Energy and mining**
Manufacturing**
Media and telecomms
Commercial services**
Retail**
y y
25
17
8
23
15
27
8
31
67
50
50
38
38
27
25
31
25
67
33
50
33
33
33
33
5020
24
15
35
18
20
29
22
11
18
Retail**
Construction
Financial services
Transport**
31
53
54
14
38
31
23
23
21
31
50
66
67
50
25
33
50
33
■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive

… except the UK, where banks expect to loosen lending
restrictions across all sectors
Nordics Poland Spain
20
10
30
10
10
10
60
50
20
40
30
50
17
20
20
20
67
40
20
25
38
13
26
14
25
50
76
38
38
14
SMEs
Healthcare
Energy and mining**
Manufacturing**
Media and telecomms
Switzerland UK
20
10
80
80
30
20
40
50
10
30
17
14
40
50
33
29
29
25
13
13
43
25
13
25
25
14
Retail**
Construction
Financial services
Transport**
20
10
10
10
10
10
30
30
30
30
30
20
SMEs
Healthcare
Energy and mining**
Manufacturing**
Media and telecomms
Retail**
8
8
8
8
8
46
46
38
39
46
31
39
3910
30
20
20
10
20Retail**
Construction
Financial services
Transport**
8
8
8
20
8
39
53
30
40
39
■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive

European banks are beginning to shift their focus from
balance sheet stabilization to growing new revenues
Introducing/Increasing incentives to increase customer deposits
How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?*
3.543.39
1H13
Repaying central bank funding programs
Launching initiatives to promote growth
Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets
Lending to customers
3.28 3.49
3.31 3.48
3.363.18
3.00 3.31
2H13
Reducing the balance sheet
Selling assets outside home markets
Selling assets outside Europe
3.29 3.42
3.14 3.27
3.06 3.22
3.353.20
1 2 3 4 5
Reducing loan to deposit ratios
Accessing central bank funding programs
3.353.20
2.852.69
Significantly
less
Significantly
more
Stay the same
Comments: A more stable economic environment and continued low funding rates have helped banks to strengthen their
balance sheets and reduce their dependence on central bank funding programs. Average ECB funding for Eurozone banks is
now just 2.5% of bank assets and with potential penalties for excessive LTRO usage in the AQR, 51% are planning to repay
central bank funding in the next six months. Many banks also expect to sell assets outside their core markets to boost capital
and liquidity. With healthier balance sheets banks are beginning to focus on revenue growth. Fifty percent of banks anticipate
launching specific initiatives to promote growth in the next six months and 45% expect to increase lending to customers. Forty-
four percent of banks expect to increase funding from wholesale markets to support this growth.
four percent of banks expect to increase funding from wholesale markets to support this growth.
* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Significantly less’ and 5 denotes ‘Significantly more’.

Most banks in all countries, except France, anticipate
reducing access to central bank funding programs
Austria Belgium France
30
20
10
20
10
10
10
50
50
30
40
50
40
10
20
10
10
10
10
38
44
63
19
50
25
19
25
13
13
25
13
25
19
13
6
10
10
19
5
5
48
62
24
48
62
48
5
5
5
19
5
2010 20 10
50
30
10
10
10
10
40
60
10
10
Selling assets outside home market
6
38
38
25
6
6
6
6
50
19
19
13
13
13
6
24
24
5
24
19
29
53
5
5
10
11 28 2837 2155R d i th b l h t
20
10
10
10
20
10
10
10
30
50
70
40
40
10
20
20
30
10
10
10
10
17
6
11
6
6
6
11
11
6
39
28
39
61
33
50
28
11
33
11
6
11
11
28
24
15
30
37
37
38
37
2
5
3
8
2
15
29
10
10
15
15
15
7
3
2
2
5
5
S lli t t id h k t
40
40
20
20
20
10
10
10
30
30
30
10
39
22
6
17
6
17
56
44
39
11
11
20
50
18
24
5
3
2
25
8
10
15
3
10
7
Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘About the same’ are not displayed.

A majority of banks in all countries also expect to increase
initiatives to promote growth
8
31
1515
62
54
69
62
54
38
15
15
23
8
25
63
63
63
25
25 13
21
7
21
29
7
7
7
14
36
36
21
36
36
7
7
7
Switzerland UK
23
15
8
8 15
46
54
62
15
8
8
8
13
13
13
13
88
36
21
14
14
43
7
7
57
14
21
13
13
9
26
4
26
4 39
39
52
22
39
35
9
9
9
4
13
9
20
10
10
40
30
40
40
60
20
10
39
4
9
9
9
4
4
9
52
43
48
4
4
50
20
10
10
10 10
10
30
70
10
20
10
Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘About the same’ are not displayed.

Banks will continue to adjust their footprints…
Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries
in which it operates?*
32
41
44
25
19
27 27
23
Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or
joint ventures
None of these
1H13 2H13
Comments: Since the crisis, many banks have sold assets as they have restructured their businesses to reduce complexity or
raise capital. This reshaping of the banking sector is set to continue, with 56% of the respondents expecting to either buy or sell
assets, or enter a joint venture in the next six months. Banks remain focused on getting their European footprint right and 91%
of banks anticipating asset purchases and 86% of banks anticipating asset sales or joint ventures, expect these to occur within
the European market.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option.

…with the majority of sales, acquisitions and joint ventures
expected in European markets
In which regions is your bank likely to sell assets / buy assets / consider joint ventures in over the next six
months?*
Europe
5
4
J i
Sell assets
Buy assets
North America
7
5
Sell assets
Buy assets
Asia Pacific
31
36
41
Joint ventures
Sell assets
Buy assets
1
0 5 10
Joint ventures
5
0 5 10
Joint ventures0 10 20 30 40 50
South America 2Buy assets
Middle East
Across the world
2
1
2
Joint ventures
Sell assets
Buy assets
1
2
0 1 2 3 4
Joint ventures
Sell assets
0
4
5
Joint ventures
Sell assets
Buy assets
0 5 10 0 5 10
* Numbers represent the total number of mentions for that particular region. Respondents could state more than one region.

Swiss banks are now significantly more likely to sell assets,
while French banks are significantly more likely to buy assets
Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries
in which it operates?*
Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these
32
21
25
27
31
40
Europe
Belgium
Austria
21
0
27
38
10
7
0
23
13
10
50
75
44
38
50
50
29
36
32
10
39
17
43
N th l d
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
0
20
20
25
30
11
15
57
42
7
36
19
40
28
15
24
17
61
28
41
40
50
63
19
53
15
43
30
38
0
0
10
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
31
38
29
20
15
13
21
30
16
8
36
20
46
25
14
40
16
54
43
50
23
63
71
40
31
17
35
40
UK
Switzerland
42
24
43
30
2H13 1H13
25
28
30
20
28
41
22
40
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option.

Most banks anticipate consolidation within the industry in
both the short and medium term.
To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry over the next 12 months and within
the next three years?*
Within three years12 months
6
26
27
12
14
26
43
31
I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation
41
Comments: Although 73% of banks anticipate some consolidation in the industry over the next 12 months, most expect this will
be small scale. Despite the significant strides banks have made in strengthening their balance sheets, the economic recovery is
not yet assured and institutions remain cautious about major acquisitions in the short term. However, over the next three years
55% of the respondents expect medium- or large-scale consolidation. Switzerland is most likely to see consolidation in both the
short and medium term, with all the respondents anticipating some consolidation, and 90% expecting medium- or large-scale
consolidation. Swiss private banks have been struggling with declining profitability due to increased compliance and IT costs,
as well as revenue pressure following recent bilateral tax agreements with Germany and the UK.
p g g y

Swiss banks anticipate the greatest degree of consolidation
To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry in your market over the next 12 months
and within the next three years?*
Austria Belgium Europe
10
20
40
70
40
10
10
3 years
12 months
6
56
44
25
38
13
13
6
14
27
31
41
43
26
12
6
France
10
10
14
57
62
29
14
5
Germany Netherlands Nordics
50
70
30
20
20
10 31
50
31
43
31 8
7
Italy
6
22
22
50
67
28
632
17
32
51
32
27
4
5
3 years
12 months
23 31 46
SwitzerlandPoland UKSpain
13 13 7512 months 48 48 410 40 50
42 17 42
I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation
25 63 133 years 30 35 3510 40 50

Business priorities and product line
expectationsp

Regulatory compliance and risk management remain the
most important agenda items for European banks
73Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV
Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization*
2H13
1H13
3
2H13
1
Rank order of importance
46
48
49
60
45
49
55
41Investing in customer-facing technology
Cutting costs
Reputational risk
Compliance with capital market regulations
Compliance with consumer regulation/remediation
Minimizing non-essential expenditure
Streamlining processes
Risk management
p g2H13
1
2
4
6
7
-
5
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
23
23
27
37
26
15
18
25
41
Developing partnerships with non-banks
Establishing new business segments
New remuneration systems
Restructuring the business to comply with regulations
Developing/Introducing new products
Restructuring the business to cut costs
Developing Recovery and Resolution Plans
Current changes in financial reporting/IFRS
Investing in customer facing technology 8
11
12
9
10
14
18
13
15
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
8
12
12
14
14
15
15
Reducing the number of products
Off-shoring
Outsourcing
Disposing of assets or businesses
New foreign markets/Internationalization
Acquiring new assets or businesses
Innovation and growth
Cost cutting and efficiency
Risk and regulation
15
19
16
17
20
22
21
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
* R d t k d t k th i t f ti iti l f 0 t 10 h 0 d t ‘N t t ll i t t’ d 10 d t ‘ i t t’ N b h th t f d t l ti ith 8 9 10 B
Comments: Despite signs that banks are beginning to look for ways to grow revenues, risk, regulation and efficiency remain the
top agenda items for European banks. Perhaps not surprisingly, given the greater clarity now that CRD IV has been agreed,
preparing for Basel III is now the most important agenda item for banks – it was ranked third in our previous Barometer. More
notably, tactical cost cutting has fallen out of the top five priorities for banks, to be replaced by compliance with consumer
regulation and remediation. This is now a key agenda item for banks in countries that have faced mis-selling scandals, including
the UK and Spain, with regulators placing an increased emphasis on consumer protection.
* Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 denotes ‘Not at all important’ and 10 denotes ‘very important’. Numbers show the percentage of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10. Base
excludes respondents answering ‘Does not apply’.
Reputational risk includes tax transparency. Compliance with capital markets regulations i.e., MiFID II/EMIR. Investing in new customer-facing technology e.g., mobile solutions.

Many banks expect to invest in customer-facing technology
but other growth initiatives, except in the Netherlands…
Austria
81
67
Belgium
48
57
France
44
80
Ri k t
Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV
Risk and regulation
38
75
13
57
44
69
60
75
81
19
40
44
63
10
30
19
20
29
30
33
30
48
19
33
33
48
11
0
44
60
40
44
44
40
70
60
60
10
44
R i h b i l i h l i
Investing in customer-facing technology
Cutting costs
Reputational risk
Risk management
0
13
20
20
0
38
13
19
7
25
6
25
20
10
10
10
19
10
21
5
21
20
11
20
11
22
25
30
11
10
0
Off-shoring
Outsourcing
47
41
31
41
35
41
72
56
31
50
65
59
30
30
30
40
22
38
70
67
40
60
60
50
y y
13
28
28
44
34
54
71
12
51
44
59
22
Cutting costs
Reputational risk
Risk management
21
12
22
28
18
29
24
6
0
19
6
31
13
40
44
50
60
0
10
10
11
0
10
13
17
5
7
2
7
2
7
7
2
12
Off-shoring
Outsourcing
g

…have been deprioritized, as regulatory compliance takes up
an increasing amount of management focus
Nordics
88
88
Poland
92
100
Spain
21
85
Risk management
Risk and regulation
63
88
0
29
50
75
38
75
88
17
50
50
88
31
46
58
62
54
77
85
85
92
46
46
77
77
21
31
33
15
50
21
64
33
21
14
21
15
29
R t t i th b i t l ith l ti
Cutting costs
Reputational risk
Risk management
0
33
38
43
50
0
14
0
0
0
23
17
17
31
15
58
0
20
33
38
8
0
8
29
23
33
0
17
8
0
Off-shoring
Outsourcing
Switzerland UK
50
10
20
50
40
50
60
60
50
50
60
50
Cutting costs
Reputational risk
Risk management
41
35
48
65
59
68
57
86
30
39
52
39
20
10
0
0
30
10
30
10
20
20
30
Off-shoring
Outsourcing
g
25
22
20
26
30
50
36
9
21
17
17

Banks anticipate an improved outlook for all business lines…
How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*
2H131H13
10
7
6
1
3
1
45
45
46
6
8
14
Corporate banking
Retail banking
Private banking and wealth management
32
36
35
11
11
11
13
10
13
2
4
3
Corporate banking
Retail banking
Net
increase
30
33
28
Net
increase
53
43
40
20
9
10
12
1
1
1
1
32
36
38
43
9
5
10
8
Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)
Securities services
Asset management
Deposit business
22
34
37
41
4
4
13
11
16
16
18
14
5
2
3
2
Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)
Securities services
Asset management
Deposit business 36
29
20
5
38
37
31
20
14
14
1
3
30
32
5
7
Securities trading
Debt and equity issuance
26
28
22
4
9
4
21
14
16
4
8
5
Securities trading
y ( g , ) 5
15
5
20
22
20
Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor
Comments: Banks are most optimistic about the outlook for private banking and wealth management, which is particularly attractive
given its capital-lite business model. With global markets having rebounded since 2009, the wealth of high and ultra high net worth
individuals has seen a dramatic recovery - the wealth of EU27 billionaires has almost doubled since then and grew around 23% in the
last year alone. However, this optimism may be more due to hope than expectation. With banks competing over a relatively small
customer pool not everyone can be a winner. Banks also expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking. With signs of
an economic recovery in Europe, banks are hopeful that both businesses and individuals will look to borrow and invest. Only the
Dutch banks do not expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Neither good, nor poor’ are not displayed.
Dutch banks do not expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking.

…with the strongest performance expected in retail banking,
wealth management…
Retail bankingPrivate banking and Wealth management
14
13
5
7
8
29
3
11
14
53
51
35
45
42
33
7
5
6
8
17
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
29
50
48
47
46
42
13
29
7
8
5
14
42
25
14
3
5
6
13
14
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
6
22
13
13
6
8
47
22
50
50
63
12
11
17
13
13
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
60
60
45
50
38
10
10
18
17
25
5
30
17
13
5UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Deposit businessCorporate banking
53
33
45
43
43
67
10
10
8
14
67
13
15
15
12
7
1
11
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
36
39
38
45
27
40
17
6
27
10
17
14
12
14
10
18
10
2
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
44
33
45
63
60
17
18
6
13
10
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
52
44
64
100
73
10
11
9
5
9
5UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics

… and asset management. The outlook has also improved for
corporate and investment banking…
Securities servicesAsset management
80
53
33
30
36
25
38
5
25
13
7
18
15
9
20
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
29
38
23
33
38
54
10
29
13
5
10
31
10
29
10
14
10
20
14
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
47
20
45
25
25
13
10
25
10
25
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
56
44
58
67
42
11
17
33
8
22
25
6UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Transaction advisory
25
22
29
20
22
43
1
25
54
22
29
32
33
25
15
3
6
9
11
14
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
14
19
20
13
14
11
25
9
3
57
31
14
38
32
56
25
14
13
7
13
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
13
20
30
11
10
31
50
30
50
44
13
10
25
11
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
22
8
14
14
11
53
11
25
57
33
57
6
11
33
14
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands

…indicating a hope that, as the economic recovery becomes
embedded, businesses will be more willing to invest
Securities trading
50
38
26
18
30
25
25
17
12
5
13
13
13
29
14
13
25
17
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
28
10
50
43
36
11
10
14
17
10
14
9
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics

Customer demand for investments and lending is expected to
overtake demand for deposits and savings
How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?*
2H131H13
14
7
2
1
50
50
5
8
Personal real estate loans
Personal investment products
35
37
11
7
15
14
6
3
Personal investment products
Net
increase
27
25
Net
increase
50
39
12
9
14
1
1
2
46
46
50
5
5
5
Personal savings and deposits
Personal loans
44
32
35
6
3
11
16
19
15
1
5
6
Personal savings and deposits
Personal loans
Personal real estate loans 25
11
33
39
41
38
61 36 1Credit cards28 4102Credit cards 20 30
Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
Comments: With greater stability returning to financial markets 58% of banks anticipate increased demand for personalComments: With greater stability returning to financial markets, 58% of banks anticipate increased demand for personal
investment products. Banks expect savers will move their savings out of cash in an attempt to generate greater returns in a
negative real interest rate environment. Banks also anticipate increased demand for both secured and unsecured lending. A
significant majority of banks in all countries except Austria expect increased demand for personal loans. Ultra-low interest rates
have enabled retail customers to pay down debt and improve their personal balance sheets. With indications of an improving
economy, banks believe that these customers will now be more willing to borrow for consumption. Views on real-estate lending
are more polarized, suggesting that the recovery of the European housing market is far from assured. Only in the UK, where the
government has introduce deposit guarantees and equity loans do all respondents expect increased mortgage demand
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering ‘Not applicable’.
government has introduce deposit guarantees and equity loans, do all respondents expect increased mortgage demand.

Banks expect demand for deposits and savings products to
remain high, but increased demand for a range of credit…
Personal real estate loansPersonal investment products
21
8
7
13
1
67
57
53
37
50
64
50
17
3
5
8
29
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
60
46
55
56
50
31
50
5
5
15
40
8
3
17
14
23
25
3
6
2
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
11
9
13
11
22
33
45
75
50
11
18
13
13
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Personal savings and deposit products
40
44
55
75
29
30
22
27
43
13
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Personal loans
33
57
29
72
46
40
38
17
5
5
7
17
36
21
12
13
13
6
1
13
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
50
46
38
56
46
57
38
17
11
5
14
13
17
15
5
6
9
7
38
3
6
1
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
60
33
55
50
63
33
27
17
13
17
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
70
11
45
75
25
50
9
17
11
9
13
17
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands

…suggests customers are now more willing to spend for
personal consumption
Credit cards
14
11
6
9
13
1
75
50
26
39
36
36
38
6
1
N di
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
13
22
11
55
50
43
9
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics

Banks anticipate strong growth in corporate lending and debt
issuance as corporations look to increase capital expenditure
How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*
2H131H13
Net
increase
28
28
Net
increase
54
3010
6
2 37
52
5
8
Debt issuance
Corporate loans
41
39
6
5
14
14
5
2
Debt issuance
Corporate loans
28
2
12
30
23
1214
13
10
6
1
2
28
30
37
4
7
5
Hedging products
M&A advisory
Debt issuance
29
24
41
5
2
6
18
15
14
4
9
5
Hedging products
M&A advisory
Debt issuance
-10 8
Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly
163 20 7Equity issuance/IPOs16 3209Equity issuance/IPOs
Decrease slightly
Comments: Improvement in the Composite European Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks projected spending and
production levels, suggests that European corporations will increase their capital expenditure, driving demand for financing in
the coming months. The precise shape of demand for funding will vary across Europe. While most businesses remain
dependent on bank loans, respondents in some countries, such as the UK and the Nordics, expect the increase in demand for
debt and equity issuance to outstrip that for corporate lending. This suggests that there may be a structural shift towards a US
funding model, which places greater reliance on the financial markets.

Corporate lending still dominates financing for European
businesses. However increased demand for debt…
Corporate loans Debt issuance
50
57
21
36
37
43
33
7
5
11
24
10
29
3
2
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
25
50
55
59
52
88
44
5
12
8
13
7
6
6
33
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
53
33
30
43
44
13
14
22
7
11
10
11
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
41
22
70
57
44
18
10
29
11
6
11
20
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
M&A advisory Hedging products
8
20
6
14
14
8
11
6
33
31
14
19
28
14
38
33
13
4
13
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
44
33
8
43
30
67
11
50
3
14
7
14
50
22
14
13
14
3
1
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
11
38
30
11
6
13
10
44
13
40
57
33
33
6
14
33
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
54
33
33
50
44
15
11
8
11
22
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics
g yg yg y g y

…and equity financing in the UK, Italy and the Nordics
suggests a shift towards greater reliance on market funding
Equity issuance/IPOs
8
32
14
16
13
17
8
3
3
31
6
14
20
13
17
8
14
7
13
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
Europe
Belgium
Austria
7
13
11
20
13
20
20
25
22
20
67
20
11
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland
Nordics

Headcount

Ongoing industry restructuring and a focus on efficiency will
lead to further job cuts across the sector…
Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*
2H13 23 23410
1H13 20 3329
Comments: European banks remain divided on headcount changes. Banks in countries such as Austria, Poland, Spain and
Switzerland, which are still going through significant restructuring, anticipate the greatest headcount reductions. In some
markets that are further along with their restructuring, such as the Netherlands, the Nordics and the UK, banks actually expect
to increase headcount. However, even in these countries the picture varies widely from bank to bank.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering "Don't know".

…but banks in the Netherlands, the Nordics and the UK now
anticipate overall headcount growth
Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*
2H131H13
43
34
25
40
10
10
13
20
14
23
31
10
2
6
F
Europe
Belgium
Austria -50
-1
-19
3932
32
43
63
8
9
13
20
20
13
4
3
F
Europe
Belgium
Austria
Net
increase
-63
-43
-18
16
Net
increase
75
21
30
44
24
43
7
10
6
12
10
25
43
40
28
12
14
10
2
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France -39
-22
-22
10
15
5046
57
20
58
24
32
15
7
20
8
8
8
8
7
30
17
17
20
7
4
Poland
Nordics
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France -16
-15
-49
-10
-50
53
26
50
31
75
4
23
35
20
15
25
4UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland -50
-39
-30
931
14
28
46
14
3
9
15
25
28
31
8
6
9
UK
Switzerland
Spain
Poland -53
3
11
-14
Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering "Don't know".

Headcount will remain stable in growth sectors such as
private banking and asset management…
In which areas of the business do you expect headcount to increase or decrease?*
2H131H13
11
12
13
11
36
13
10
12
11
22
8
Asset management
Retail and business banking
Private banking and wealth management** 3
-10
10
Net
increase
Net
increase
0
-24
0
7
8
9
10
2
9
10
17
10
4
13
6
13
3
15
16
Other
Compliance, risk and finance
Corporate banking
Investment banking -10
-2
1
-3
-7
-1
-1
5
4
5
30
33
2
3
22
21
Other head office functions
Operations and IT
■ Decrease ■ Increase
-18
-20
-28
-26
Comments: Redundancies will be focused on head office functions, including operations and IT, as banks continue to
streamline processes and improve efficiency. Headcount will be largely unchanged in growth businesses such as private
banking and asset management. However in retail banking, despite expectations of growth, headcount is still expected to fall
as banks rationalize branches following mergers and the focus on efficiency and automation of branch activity continues apace.
* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents answering that headcount would ‘Stay the same’.

…but the cull of head office jobs continues across Europe…
Belgium France
Austria
17
17
8
33
8
17
25
17
33
21
36
14
29
14
14
21
14
7
14
14
14
43
14
Corporate banking
Investment banking
Asset management
33
42
17
8
25
17
33
14
21 7
7
57
29
14
43
14Other head office functions
Operations and IT
Other
5
10
5
30
15
10
5
5
15
5
Corporate banking
Investment banking
Asset management
14
14
7
36
7
14
14
14
14
11
11
33
11
11
11
22
30
40
5
10
5
5
5
10
10
10
Operations and IT
Other
Corporate banking
14
43
7
14
7
7
7
11
22
33
11

…particularly in Poland and Spain
10
20
30
10
20
10
10
20
20
C li i k d fi
Corporate banking
Investment banking
Asset management
13
50
13
25
11
22
11
67
11
11
11
11
UK
30
20
10
10
Operations and IT
Other
63
50
78
22
11
Switzerland UK
13
25
6
31
19
13
31
13
6
13
Switzerland
14
43
29
29
14
29
Corporate banking
Investment banking
Asset management
19
25
19
13 13
14
43
14
14
Operations and IT
Other
Corporate banking

Contacts

Contacts
For more information on how we can help, please contact our team.
EMEIA: France: Nordics: Switzerland:
Robert Cubbage
+44 20 7951 2319
rcubbage@uk.ey.com
Steven Lewis
+44 20 7951 9471
Luc Valverde
+33 1 46 93 63 04
luc.valverde@fr.ey.com
Germany:
Lars Weigl
+46 8 520 590 45
lars.weigl@se.ey.com
Poland:
Philippe Zimmermann
+41 58 286 32 19
philippe.zimmermann@ch.ey.com
UK:
slewis2@uk.ey.com
Austria:
Friedrich Hief
Dirk Müller-Tronnier
+49 6196 996 27429
dirk.mueller-tronnier@de.ey.com
Italy:
Massimo Testa
Iwona Kozera
+48 22 557 7491
iwona.kozera@pl.ey.com
Spain:
José Carlos Hernández Barrasús
Omar Ali
+44 20 7951 1789
oali1@uk.ey.com
Friedrich Hief
+43 1 21170 1352
friedrich.hief@at.ey.com
Belgium:
Jean-François Hubin
Massimo Testa
+39 02 7221 2306
massimo.testa@it.ey.com
Netherlands:
Wouter Smit
José Carlos Hernández Barrasús
+34 91 572 7291
josecarlos.hernandezbarrasus@es.ey.com
ç
+32 2 774 9266
jean-francois.hubin@be.ey.com
Wouter Smit
+31 88 407 1574
wouter.smit@nl.ey.com

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