This document provides guidance on how to properly assess the market potential for a new technology. It emphasizes that the focus should be on solving customer needs rather than just the product itself. Key steps include understanding who the target customers are, what problems they currently face and how they address those problems now, who the major competitors are, and determining if the new technology clearly provides benefits over existing solutions. The document also stresses understanding market trends, size, regulatory hurdles, intellectual property landscape, and identifying the appropriate business model to successfully commercialize the technology. Product-market fit is an important first step, but more work is needed to navigate risks, determine the path to market, and establish a sustainable business.

1. How to Assess the Market
for Your Technology
(or “You can love your technology…just don’t be in love with it)
Heidjer Staecker
TreMonti Consulting, LLC
(817) 335-6003
hstaecker@tremonticonsulting.com

2. Technology to Business Opportunity
Step 1: Amazing scientific discovery
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Profit

3. Step 2
Idea
Disclosure
Patent
General market
assessment
Market/Customer need
Idea
Disclosure
Detailed, data-driven market
assessment with industry feedback
Patent
Good Better

4. Determining market need
• Commercialization is not about your product
• It is about solving a need or a problem of your
customer

5. Determining market need requires understanding…
• Who is your customer?
• What is out there currently?
– How is your customer addressing this issue now?
– Who is your competition in this space?
• What are the benefits of the current
solutions/products/technologies?
• How is your solution/product/technology better?

6. Understanding…Your customer
• Who is your customer?
– Remember that the end user is not always the customer
(Hospital vs doctor vs patient)
– Who is paying you is your customer
• What is the customer’s problem or need?
– Does your technology solve it?
– Is their problem or need great enough for them to need your
solution or are they happy/ok with the way they are currently
doing it?
• What is needed to get your customers to buy or switch?
– Details! Faster? Great….how fast does it need to be for your
customer to buy? 3x? 100x?

7. Understanding…Your customer
• Knowing details are important
• If your drilling technology could save an oil company
$50K/day, recognize that:
– They may be spending $1M/day to run that well and thus $50K
is a drop in the bucket.
– And if they have to shut down an operation to implement the
technology…you may cost them $1M
• If you have a new technology to help a drug company test
their therapeutic and that company is already in clinical
trials, they will not redo clinical trials in order to use your
technology. Some may not redo preclinical data. Even if it
is better.

8. Understanding…Your competition
• What is out there currently?
– Ie,…Who else is after the same $$$ as you?
• Competition
– Who are the major players?
– Who is new?
Feature Feature Feature
Technology A Yes No Yes
Technology B No No Yes
You Yes Yes Yes

9. Where there’s a need…is there a way?
• Determining product-market fit is not the end
• You must assess…
– Market size
– Market trends
– Regulatory hurdles
– IP
– Right business model

10. Market Trends: Don’t fall into this trap…
Widgets: Eleventy
Billion Dollars ($)
We just need 1% of
the market to
succeed
Investors HATE to hear this!

11. Markets are segmented
WIDGETS:
Eleventy Billion
Steel Widgets
$10B
Blue Steel
Widgets $1 B
Blue Steel Jointed
Widgets $150 M
We can dominate the niche market of blue steel jointed widgets and in year X expand into jointed and non jointed blue steel
widgets and the in year X enter into the Steal widget market worth 10B
Investors like to hear this!

12. I have a brand new endoscope technology
The global endoscopy market is $28.2 B
– Too broad because this includes endoscopes, visualization
equipment, and accessories.
– Visualization submarket alone has 7+ categories
• Ah. Well, my technology is an endoscope itself.
– Great…what kind? Rigid, flexible, surgical, or capsule
• Flexible!
– Great! In 2011 the flexible endoscope was worth $2.2B
• Big market, big submarket segment…We are done
right?

13. Market Trends
• Growth (Compound Annual Growth Rate-CAGR)
– Fast or slow growth
– Maybe different for each country
– Maybe be impacted by regulatory changes and even
the news!
• US Market vs Foreign markets
– Helps understand where to file patents, where you
should apply for regulatory approval, where you need
distributers

14. Market Trends in the endoscope market
• What is contributing to increases?
– Patient, Doctor, Hospital preference for minimally invasive
– Growing aging population
• Minimally invasive surgery
• Age related surgeries (hip, knee)
– Growing obese population
• Increase need in gastrointestinal related procedures requiring
endoscopy technologies
**these trends may vary in different countries!

15. Regulatory
• Regulatory approval impacts the marketability of
your technology.
• Therapeutics-FDA
– Preclinical to get to IND=$8-12 M, takes 1-6 years,
and has an 8% chance of reaching FDA approval
– Clinical trials average 6-11 years and averages $1B,
with a 30% success rate
– In addition, manufacturing costs and insurance also
play a role

16. Regulatory Myth
• Only medical technologies depend on regulatory approval.
Real life example…
• Company ABC developed an ultrasensitive sensor for
detecting gas.
– Clear value proposition…ability to detect dangerous gases at
really low levels at xxxxx ppm
– The government only requires detection at xx ppm
– Until that changes, no company wanted to buy the more
expensive ultrasensitive sensor because they were only required
by the government to measure at xx ppm.

17. Intellectual Property
• Understanding patents in your space
– Has it been done?
– How crowded is this space?
– Who is in this space (Assignee)?
• Potential licensee? Partner?
• Expensive to obtain
– So make sure there is a market for it!
– Don’t file in countries that you won’t need to sell into (do your
market research)
– Know what your industry wants
• Foreign filings, method vs composition, ability to file more, how much life is
left (licensee may need time to get through reg)
• Patent does not equal commercial success

18. Business Model
I know my value proposition, my customers, the
market, the regulatory pathway, and I have a great
patent portfolio

19. Product-market fit is just the beginning for the scientist
What is the cost to make my product?
Nonexclusive vs exclusive
How much equity should we
take?
What are my royalty rates and terms?
What financial resources do I need?
What data does industry
want? Is it different from
academic standards?
Since I am a platform
technology…what do I do first?
Should I start my
own startup???

20. Product-market fit is just the beginning for a startup
What is the cost to make my product?
Are there multiple revenue streams? Which is best?
What are the most important thing
I have to do to make this business
work?
Do I need direct or indirect sales?
What financial resources do I need?
How do I market this technology?
Since I am a platform
technology…what do I do first?
What are my fixed costs? What are my variable costs?
What are my greatest
risks?
Is this repeatable? Scalable?
IPO? Acquisition?

21. Business model
Business model canvas by Alex Osterwalder www.businessmodelgeneration

22. Technology to Business
Step 1: Understand the market and customer
needs
Step 2: Amazing scientific discovery
Step 3: Understanding the risks, path to
market, and the right business model
Step 4: Profit

23. Q&A