South Africa’s growth outlook has improved, but this is largely due to short-term cyclical factors. structural reforms are needed to push the growth rate sustainably higher.
Our February 2016 Africa Market Update is out. The report assesses key economic and investment trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda (pre-election issue), Zambia and Rwanda
Peru is a rapidly developing economy of more than 30 million people. In 2012, its GDP was approximately US$200 billion, making it the 50th largest economy in the world and seventh largest in Latin America. This this short report considers the outlook for the economy, including the expectations of 200 businesses interviewed in Peru, and more than 12,500 globally, over the past 12 months.
We are pleased to release the February 2019 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. With the general election in Nigeria set for February 16th, 2019, this issue takes an incisive look at the risk environment in the country and what this election means for an economy grappling with lethargic rebound from the 2016 recession.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 15 February 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• MENA Region: Non-oil sector revenues to drive 3.8% GDP growth in 2016
• Oman: BP expands scope of $16b Khazzan gas project
• KSA: Expert explains importance of ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ concept
• Turkey: OMV initiates process to sell OMV Petrol Ofisi
• Egypt:Renewable energy developers edged out in’s Kom Ombo solar project
• UK: A rebranded wind farm subsidy is still a subsidy
• Oil edges down, pares Friday's jump of over 10 percent
• Crude oil rally based on 'false hope': Analyst
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Report covers economic and business trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Gabon, Uganda and Rwanda. In Nigeria, the report sheds light on the contraction of the economy in Q1, 2016 and what this portends for the investment climate. As always, we have included a snapshot of the deals landscape in the continent.
Our February 2016 Africa Market Update is out. The report assesses key economic and investment trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda (pre-election issue), Zambia and Rwanda
Peru is a rapidly developing economy of more than 30 million people. In 2012, its GDP was approximately US$200 billion, making it the 50th largest economy in the world and seventh largest in Latin America. This this short report considers the outlook for the economy, including the expectations of 200 businesses interviewed in Peru, and more than 12,500 globally, over the past 12 months.
We are pleased to release the February 2019 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. With the general election in Nigeria set for February 16th, 2019, this issue takes an incisive look at the risk environment in the country and what this election means for an economy grappling with lethargic rebound from the 2016 recession.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 15 February 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• MENA Region: Non-oil sector revenues to drive 3.8% GDP growth in 2016
• Oman: BP expands scope of $16b Khazzan gas project
• KSA: Expert explains importance of ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ concept
• Turkey: OMV initiates process to sell OMV Petrol Ofisi
• Egypt:Renewable energy developers edged out in’s Kom Ombo solar project
• UK: A rebranded wind farm subsidy is still a subsidy
• Oil edges down, pares Friday's jump of over 10 percent
• Crude oil rally based on 'false hope': Analyst
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Report covers economic and business trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Gabon, Uganda and Rwanda. In Nigeria, the report sheds light on the contraction of the economy in Q1, 2016 and what this portends for the investment climate. As always, we have included a snapshot of the deals landscape in the continent.
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
The first chapter of the Survey contains an examination of the macroeconomic performance of and outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, analyzing the implications of some of the economic challenges that the region is facing. It also contains a discussion on several policy options, with emphasis on the importance of fiscal policy. The chapter also includes an examination of the impact of the recent economic slowdown in the Asia Pacific region in terms of its effects on poverty, inequality and employment prospects, along with challenges posed by an expanding middle class and rapid urbanization. In the second chapter, the diversity of the region is considered by providing a more disaggregated analysis of economic issues and challenges that each of the five sub regions is facing. In doing so, a distinct issue is the focus for each sub region, which provides an opportunity for increased understanding of a variety of experiences and policy considerations. Finally, the third chapter contains analyses on the importance of productivity in the Asia-Pacific region and a set of policy recommendations on how to strengthen productivity growth.
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
“The Journey to Prosperity” Opening Jamaica Budget Debate Presentation - FY ...Audley Shaw
Just over a year ago, the people of Jamaica sent a clear message that they wanted new and better leadership after years of little or no economic growth, social stagnation and decay. By endorsing our proposals to take Jamaica from poverty to prosperity under the leadership of Prime Minister Andrew Holness, the people have placed their hopes and dreams in our hands.
South Africa headed for recession in 2019: IRRSABC News
GDP data released by Statistics South Africa today shows year-on-year growth at 0% and quarter-on-quarter at -3.2%. This suggests that South Africa is headed for recession in 2019. Stock exchange indices and foreign sales of SA Inc are indicative of plummeting investor confidence. Bloomberg data shows that by May year-to-date, foreigners had sold off R44bn of SA equities. In addition, bond flows reversed sharply in the month of May with a R3.6bn outflow.
We are pleased to release the April 2016 Africa Market Update covering economic trends in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. The report also includes a snapshot of the deals landscape in Africa (YTD) as well as insights into what South Sudan's admission to the East African Community portends.
Thailand Blockchain Community InitiativeRein Mahatma
“Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward”
Keynote Address by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob
Governor of the Ban of Thailand
Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018
5 June 2018 / Singapore
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
The first chapter of the Survey contains an examination of the macroeconomic performance of and outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, analyzing the implications of some of the economic challenges that the region is facing. It also contains a discussion on several policy options, with emphasis on the importance of fiscal policy. The chapter also includes an examination of the impact of the recent economic slowdown in the Asia Pacific region in terms of its effects on poverty, inequality and employment prospects, along with challenges posed by an expanding middle class and rapid urbanization. In the second chapter, the diversity of the region is considered by providing a more disaggregated analysis of economic issues and challenges that each of the five sub regions is facing. In doing so, a distinct issue is the focus for each sub region, which provides an opportunity for increased understanding of a variety of experiences and policy considerations. Finally, the third chapter contains analyses on the importance of productivity in the Asia-Pacific region and a set of policy recommendations on how to strengthen productivity growth.
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
“The Journey to Prosperity” Opening Jamaica Budget Debate Presentation - FY ...Audley Shaw
Just over a year ago, the people of Jamaica sent a clear message that they wanted new and better leadership after years of little or no economic growth, social stagnation and decay. By endorsing our proposals to take Jamaica from poverty to prosperity under the leadership of Prime Minister Andrew Holness, the people have placed their hopes and dreams in our hands.
South Africa headed for recession in 2019: IRRSABC News
GDP data released by Statistics South Africa today shows year-on-year growth at 0% and quarter-on-quarter at -3.2%. This suggests that South Africa is headed for recession in 2019. Stock exchange indices and foreign sales of SA Inc are indicative of plummeting investor confidence. Bloomberg data shows that by May year-to-date, foreigners had sold off R44bn of SA equities. In addition, bond flows reversed sharply in the month of May with a R3.6bn outflow.
We are pleased to release the April 2016 Africa Market Update covering economic trends in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. The report also includes a snapshot of the deals landscape in Africa (YTD) as well as insights into what South Sudan's admission to the East African Community portends.
Thailand Blockchain Community InitiativeRein Mahatma
“Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward”
Keynote Address by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob
Governor of the Ban of Thailand
Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018
5 June 2018 / Singapore
This Memorandum summarizes an overview of economy for the year 2015-2016 and the important changes proposed through the Finance Bill 2016. It contains comments on the budget and on the Finance Bill 2016, including highlights of the changes brought through the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001, the Sales Tax Act, 1990, the Federal Excise Act, 2005, the Customs Act, 1969, the Islamabad Capital Territory (Tax on Services) Ordinance, 2001 and Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005. The amendments proposed through the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 and through other laws are intended to be effective once the parliament has accorded its assent and thereafter, would be effective from July 01, 2016 i.e. tax year 2017 unless otherwise indicated.
This Memorandum is intended to provide general guidance to the readers on the important changes brought through the Bill and should not be considered as a substitute for specific advice relating to a particular enactment. For considering the precise effect of a proposed change, reference should be made to the appropriate wordings in the relevant statutes and the notifications issued where relevant.
This report covers key macroeconomic and investment trends in the economies of Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. It also covers the foreign currency crunch in Ethiopia and what the country's outlook looks like.
We are pleased to release the November 2018 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. This issue is significant for two reasons - one, with Nigeria's general election slated for February 19th, 2019, this issue delves deep in assessing the political risk profile and how the private sector perceives risk in view of the forthcoming poll. Two, November 2018 will be characterized by Monetary Policy Committee meetings in a number of economies in the region including Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia. As such, this issue takes a look at the underlying monetary environment especially with inflation and foreign exchange pressures surging across the region.
We are pleased to release the December 2017 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. This issue comes against the backdrop of Nigeria's credit risk downgrade by Moody's and discusses key issues underlying the macroeconomic environment including the uptick in the price of oil, resilience by the Naira and contraction in credit to the private sector. Our next issue, due mid January 2018, will provide an exhaustive stock take of events that impacted the investment landscape in 2017 and provide an outlook into 2018.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
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What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
1. stanlib.com
STANLIB is an authorised financial service provider.
MACRO
upDate
The South African economy
grew by a mere 0.3% in
2016. This is the lowest
growth rate the country has
achieved since the global
financial market crisis in
2009, and also well below
the average achieved since
1994 of 2.9%. It also means
that income per capita
continued to decline since
the growth rate was below
the population growth of
just over 1%. under these
circumstances it is very
difficult to create jobs
and meaningfully reduce
the country’s income and
wealth inequality. It is
much easier to implement
economic transformation
strategies when growth
rates are stronger.
The key areas of weakness
in 2016 were mining and
agriculture. Together, these
two sectors subtracted 0.6
percentage points from the
annual growth rate. In other
words, had mining and
agricultural not experienced
a decline in output last year,
the South African economy
would have grown by
almost 1%. unfortunately,
the electricity, water,
construction and transport
sectors also experienced
declines in output.
More positively, the broad
business services sector,
which includes the banking
and insurance sectors, added
a welcome 0.4 percentage
points to the annual growth
rate. This was supported by
the retail sector which added
a further 0.2 percentage
points. Despite these positive
contributions, it is fair to
conclude that South Africa’s
economic performance in
2016 was extremely weak
and disappointing relative
to expectations at the start
of 2016. Furthermore,
the weakness was evident
across a very broad range of
industries.
Against this backdrop it
is unsurprising that South
Africa’s unemployment
rate averaged 26.7% in
2016, which is the highest
unemployment rate the
country has recorded in
almost 15 years. Furthermore,
the expanded definition
of unemployment, (which
includes discouraged
workers) rose to a very
worrying average of around
36% in 2016. In particular,
the unemployment rate for
the youth (younger than
More
poSITIVeLy, THe
broaD busiNess
serViCes
SeCToR, wHICH
INCLuDeS THe
baNKiNG aND
iNsuraNCe
SeCToRS,
added a
welcome 0.4
PercentaGe
Points to
the annual
Growth rate.
south africa’s growth outlook has improved, but this is largely due to
short-term cyclical factors. structural reforms are needed to push the
growth rate sustainably higher.
SA consumer confidence
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Consumer confidence
By Kevin Lings
staNlib Chief
economist
2. 25), using the expanded
definition, was a shocking
63%.
All of this means that South
Africa’s labour market
has, once again, failed
to gain any meaningful
traction. Fundamentally,
this disappointing
performance reflects the
lack of fixed investment
spending by the private
business sector, as well
as sustained low business
confidence aggravated by
significant policy uncertainty
and political turmoil.
Furthermore, the high
rate of unemployment
contributes to much of the
social tension and anguish
experienced in South Africa
on a daily basis, especially
among the youth.
and can only be resolved
meaningfully through a
concerted and sustained
effort to improve skills
development as well as
encouraging private sector
fixed investment spending.
The low growth
environment is also putting
increasing strain on the
national budget. This is
reflected in the fact that
in the 2016/2017 fiscal
year tax revenue massively
underperformed budget
by an estimated R30bn. A
breakdown of the revenue
shortfall shows that the
under-collection was very
broad-based and includes a
dramatic R15.23bn shortfall
in individual tax collection,
a R11.26bn under-collection
of VAT and a R6.5bn
lapse in the collection of
customs duties. In contrast,
company tax collection
has been stronger
than expected (with an
estimated revenue over-
run of R6.8bn), helped by
a relatively modest initial
budget increase.
The under-collection of
tax revenue pressurised
the Minister to increase
tax rates significantly.
Consequently, National
Treasury announced tax
increases of R28bn for
2017/2018, including a
substantial increase in
dividend and personal
income tax. More
specifically, the top
marginal tax rate for
individuals earning more
than R1.5 million was
increased from 41% to 45%.
There are an estimated
103 353 taxpayers that
fall into this tax bracket,
representing a mere 1.4% of
iNCreasiNG
eMployMeNt iN
SouTH AFRICA
HAS To Be THe
number one
economic
obJectiVe
Growth in fixed investment spending by private sector
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
%q/q, 4-quarter moving average annualised
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014
2015
2016
SA budget revenue over-runs/under-collection
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
Rbn, relative to the original budget and not the Medium-term budget policy statement
8.2 6.5 5.2
14.9 13.3
-5.1
20.9
41.2
29.5
13.4
-14.5
-66.4
16.6
24.8
-14.0-11.6
-30.4
-16.3
12.0
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
South Africa headline CPI forecast
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
%y/y
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
STANLIB is an authorised financial service provider. stanlib.com
3. stanlib.comSTANLIB is an authorised financial service provider.
registered taxpayers.
However, these 103 353
taxpayers are projected to
contribute 26.3% of total
individual income tax in
2017/2018.
Further changes to personal
income tax included a
below-inflation adjustment
to the tax brackets. This
meant that the Minister
did not compensate
the taxpayer with the
negative effects of inflation
(technically referred to as
fiscal drag). The net result
of the hike in the top
marginal tax rate as well as
the lack of adjustment to
the tax brackets means that
personal income taxes are
expected to contribute an
additional R16.5bn to total
tax revenue.
The international credit
rating agencies welcomed
the tone of the national
budget, especially the
Minister of Finance’s
intention to reduce the
fiscal deficit as well as
contain government debt,
but they continue to flag
the disappointing growth
trajectory.
Fortunately, three key
factors are likely to combine
to lift South Africa’s growth
rate to between 1.0%
and 1.5% in 2017. Firstly,
improved rainfall across the
central and northern parts
of the country during the
past six months is expected
to boost agricultural
production, especially maize
production after a severe
drought in 2015/2016. This
turnaround in the fortunes
of the agricultural sector
has the potential to boost
South Africa’s economic
growth rate by as much as
0.5 percentage points.
Secondly, industrial
commodity prices have
moved noticeably higher
over the past year. The
basket of industrial
commodity prices
monitored monthly by the
International Monetary
Fund has risen by a very
impressive 31.5% in
dollars in the year ending
February 2017. This uplift
in commodity prices has
boosted South Africa’s
export performance,
which rose by almost 37%
year-on-year in January
2017. This is the best
export performance South
Africa has achieved since
2011. Consequently, South
Africa has been able to
move from perpetual
monthly trade deficits
into more regular trade
surpluses. This should help
to lift economic growth,
while at the same time
providing some support
for the rand exchange
rate.
Thirdly, South Africa’s
consumer inflation rate
appears to have peaked
at 6.7% year-on-year in
December 2016, and is
expected to moderate to
an average of around 5.6%
in 2017. This slowdown
in inflation is largely
based on a moderation in
food inflation, supported
by the much improved
agricultural season.
Agricultural food inflation
has already slowed
dramatically in recent
months. Importantly, the
slowdown in the rate of
inflation should provide
some relief for the
South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
%y/y
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Importantly,
National
Treasury
warned that
taxes are
likely to
rise further
in 2018/2019;
possibly by a
further R15
billion.
SA business confidence (BER)
Source: STANLIB, Bloomberg
Index
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4. stanlib.comSTANLIB is an authorised financial service provider.
household sector, boosting
income and spending in
real terms.
Although the improved
outlook for inflation
suggests that the South
African Reserve Bank could
cut rates in late 2017, the
scope for the Bank to
cut interest rates will be
significantly impacted by
further upward adjustment
of interest rates in the
United States and South
Africa’s credit rating
remaining at risk of being
revised lower. The Federal
Reserve is expected to hike
rates three times in 2017,
having increased rates by
25bps in December 2016.
Consequently, we currently
expect local interest rates
to remain unchanged
throughout 2017.
Risks to SA growth
The more favourable
growth outlook for 2017
is not without risk. These
risks include still low
consumer and business
confidence which will take
time to revive, ongoing
cost-cutting by many
corporates which could
start to include more
retrenchments, and a steep
decline in private sector
fixed investment activity.
Nevertheless, South
Africa’s economic growth
is expected to improve
somewhat in 2017, albeit
due to short-term cyclical
factors.
Longer-term, given
the current state of
government finances,
including higher levels
of debt and a weakening
tax base, as well as the
increasing demands for
financial support from the
state-owned enterprises, it
seems clear that the public
sector is unable to provide
additional economic
stimulus in the form of
government spending.
Instead, they will need
to focus on maintaining
fiscal discipline while
pursuing targeted fiscal
programmes.
This implies that South
Africa’s economic policy
officials need to find a way
to lift business confidence
and encourage the private
sector to play a bigger role
in growing the economy.
Realistically, this is most
likely to be achieved
through an implementation
of economic infrastructure
development through the
increasing use of private/
public partnerships.
This will require the full
backing of cabinet and
will have to be supported
by sound and consistent
economic policies.
Ultimately, the current political turmoil
in South Africa is likely to proVE decisive in
how the balance of risks to the economy
unfold in 2017, especially as the ANC starts
to focus on their elective conference in
December 2017.