The document summarizes indicators pointing to continued recovery in the real estate market. Key drivers like job growth, low interest rates, and new construction are trending positively. Transaction volumes and lending are growing, with expanding interest from investors nationwide. The outlook predicts moderate growth will continue in 2015, with transaction volume remaining healthy and interest spreading to secondary markets.

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1. MARKET INDICATORS POINT TO CONTINUED RECOVERY.
2. OPPORTUNITIES ARE BEING CREATED FOR ALL OF US.
3. FORECAST FOR MODERATE GROWTH OVER NEAR TERM.
TODAY’S THEMES

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MARKET BAROMETERS

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ALL THE KEY DRIVERS FOR PROPERTY DEMAND ARE TRENDING IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION:
• PROPERTY INVESTMENT CONTINUES ITS SLOW CLIMB.
• HOUSING MARKETS RECOVERING NICELY.
• JOBS ARE BACK PAST PRIOR PEAK LEVELS.
• INTEREST RATES STILL EXTREMELY LOW.
• MORE NEW CONSTRUCTION/DEVELOPMENT.
• NEW ACTIVITY IN A NUMBER OF SECONDARY MARKETS.
THOUGHTS ON REAL ESTATE IN 2015

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Small cap property sales:
+22% in 2014: 7-year
high
Large property sales:
+45% in 1Q2015 (YonY)
PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS GROWTH

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• MAJOR BUYING CLASSES
• Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
• Foreign investors**
• Private equity funds
• Hedge funds
• Traditional developer/owner/operators
DEAL MAKING: WHO’S INVESTING?
2014 TOP BUYERS
ARCP
Blackstone
JP Morgan
Norges Bank Investment Mgt
Hines
OMERS
Starwood Capital Group
MetLife
Essex Property Trust
David Werner Real Estate

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EXPANDING UNIVERSE OF U.S. BUYERS
• NUMBER OF ACTIVE BUYERS IS 24% HIGHER THAN PRE-CRISIS.
• 3-FOLD INCREASE SINCE 2009
• 2014: 18,574 UNIQUE BUYERS IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

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• SMALLER SECONDARY MARKETS WITH STRONG GROWTH
PROFILES ARE SEEING INVESTOR INTEREST:
• Portland, Seattle, Denver, Austin, Nashville, Atlanta, Las Vegas, etc.
• COMMON DENOMINATORS:
• Strong job growth
• Growing technology sectors, healthcare and financial services
industries
BEYOND NYC AND SAN FRAN:
NEW MARKETS ARE GETTING HOT

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• FINANCING MARKET IS INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE.
• BANKS HAVE $ TO LEND, STILL VERY CAUTIOUS.
• REGIONAL/MID-SIZED BANKS ARE GAINING MARKET SHARE.
• UPTICKS IN LENDING VOLUMES SUPPORT POSITIVE
INVESTMENT TRENDS…
LENDING TRENDS IN 2015

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• A POSITIVE TRAJECTORY IN LENDING
• 2014:
• 6.5% ANNUAL GROWTH (FDIC)
• STILL 25% BELOW 2007 PEAK
• WIDE VARIABILITY IN GROWTH BY BANK SIZE…
LENDING: SLOW PACE OF GROWTH IN
ORIGINATIONS

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• AVERAGE GROWTH IN LOAN PORTFOLIOS: 6.5%
• STRONGEST GROWTH AT THE LARGEST REGIONAL BANKS AND
MID-SIZED BANKS.
• SIGNIFICANT PULLBACK BY COMMUNITY BANKS.
• GROWTH ESPECIALLY STRONG IN
CONSTRUCTION/DEVELOPMENT AND MULTIFAMILY
CATEGORIES.
GROWTH BY BANK SIZE
Growth in CRE
Loan Portfolios
(2014 vs. 2013)
All banks 6.5%
Assets >$50B 4.1%
$10B-$50B 16.8%
$1B-$10B 10.5%
<$1B -1%

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SNAPSHOT: NEW JERSEY BANKS
• COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LOAN GROWTH AT
NEW JERSEY-BASED BANKS HAS INCREASED IN EACH OF
PAST 5 YEARS.
• 2014 GROWTH: UP +13% YEAR ON YEAR
• 1Q15:
• Mariner’s: + 3.8%
• Freedom Bank: + 9.0%
• Columbia Bank: +10.5%

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• SBA FY 1Q15 LOAN APPROVALS SPIKED
• LOAN APPROVALS UNDER 7(A) WERE UP A SIGNIFICANT 32% IN
THE 4TH QUARTER OF 2014 VERSUS PRIOR YEAR.
• NEARLY 14,000 LOANS WERE APPROVED UNDER THE 7(A)
PROGRAM IN THE OCT.-DEC. TIMEFRAME.
• EXPECTED TO CONTINUE: 10-15% GROWTH IN 2015
U.S. SBA LENDING

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• HEADING INTO NEW ROUND OF REFINANCING, PEAKING IN 2017
• LENDERS VIEW THIS WAVE OF MATURITIES AS OPPORTUNITY TO
INCREASE VOLUMES.
• EXCESS CAPITAL LOOKING TO FINANCE SOLID REAL ESTATE
DEALS.
• EXPECTED TO FUEL A SURGE IN REFINANCING ACTIVITY FROM
NOW THROUGH 2017.
NEW ROUND OF REFI’S

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• VYING FOR A PIECE OF THE REFI MARKET:
• Traditional lenders
• Life companies
• Conduits
• Private equity (non-bank lenders, new this refi cycle)
NEW REFI PLAYERS

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• VYING FOR A PIECE OF THE REFI MARKET:
• Traditional lenders
• Life companies
• Conduits
• Private equity (non-bank lenders, new this refi cycle)
NEW REFI PLAYERS

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• CONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
LENDING WAS THE FASTEST
GROWING CATEGORY OF CRE
LOANS ACROSS BANKS OF ALL
ASSET SIZES.
• BEYOND PRIMARY METROS
• POINTS TO MARKED INCREASE IN
U.S. DEVELOPMENT IN 2015
2015: THE YEAR FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
MOST ACTIVE GROUPS
ACQUIRING SITES FOR
DEVELOPMENT
HFZ Capital Group
Greenland Group
Tishman Speyer
Carmel Partners
Oceanwide Real Estate Group
Crown Resorts
Oaktree
Mitsui Fudosan
Fortis Property Group

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• MULTIFAMILY STILL POPULAR BUT PEAKING
• OFFICE IS IMPROVING ESPECIALLY IN STRONG 2NDARY METROS
• RETAIL
• 40,923 new stores this year
• INDUSTRIAL/WAREHOUSE DEMAND GROWING, PARTICULARLY
IN GATEWAY MARKETS.
TOP PROPERTY TYPES

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SCOREKEEPER BENCHMARKS

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Region 1Q Growth YonY
Northeast 2%
West 14%
MidAtlantic -4%
South 1%
Midwest 1%
California 6%
North Atlantic 8%
South Atlantic -1%
U.S. Average 4%
SCOREKEEPER: REGIONAL GROWTH 1Q2015

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1Q2015 (YonY Growth)
Nevada 47%
Oregon 25%
Washington 15%
New Jersey 13%
Utah 11%
South Carolina 10%
Missouri 8%
Wisconsin 8%
New York 7%
Texas 6%
SCOREKEEPER: STATE HOT SPOTS, 1Q2015

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NEW JERSEY: PHASE I ESA TREND LINE
Up 13% YoY

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SCOREKEEPER’S METRO FOCUS
NJ-AREA METROS RANKED AMONG TOP 50 IN THE U.S.:

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TOP PHASE I ESA MARKETS:
NORTHERN NJ METRO 7TH IN THE NATION
2014 YTD
NYC 11,552
LA 8,124
Chicago 6,428
Boston 5,103
Atlanta 4,666
Dallas 4,556
No. NJ 4,077
Philadelphia 3,922
Houston 3,919
DC 3,370

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OUTLOOK: NE/ATLANTIC REGION
Philly and No. NJ
forecast: “average” to
“improving”

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• NORTH AND CENTRAL JERSEY MARKETS
RANK AMONG THE TOP 10 NATIONALLY IN
DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE
• 2ND STRONGEST MARKET IN U.S. FOR
MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT
• 5TH MARKET IN U.S. FOR INDUSTRIAL
PROPERTY INVESTMENT
• 11TH FOR RETAIL
SIGNS POINT TO GROWING MOMENTUM IN
NORTHERN NJ

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THE 2015 FORECAST

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• THERE'S STILL A LOT OF ROAD TO RUN IN THIS RECOVERY.
• TRANSACTION VOLUME REMAINING ON THE MEND.
• MODERATE GROWTH IN NEW ORIGINATIONS.
• CONTINUED MIGRATION TO SECONDARY AND TERTIARY METROS.
• FAVORABLE LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH
PROBABILITY OF INCREASE IN EARLY 2016).
• PHASE I ESA FORECAST: 4-8% RANGE NEXT 2 YEARS
“2015 WILL BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST YEARS WE’VE SEEN IN
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SINCE THE CREDIT CRISIS AND IT’S FOR
ALL THE RIGHT REASONS.” KEN RIGGS, RERC
“OPTIMISM IS HIGHEST IT’S BEEN SINCE THE DOWNTURN.” RYAN
SEVERINO, REIS
2015 FORECAST

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