Internationalforecasttrends From Najwest (2)

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Top International Trends and Receptive Operator Trends.

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Internationalforecasttrends From Najwest (2)

  1. 2. <ul><li>WHAT’S NEW AT NAJ FOR 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>RECEPTIVE TRENDS </li></ul><ul><li>NAJ TRAX SUMMARY FOR 1H 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>FORECASTS FOR TOP 10 SOURCE MARKETS </li></ul><ul><li>FORECASTS FOR EXCHANGE RATE TRENDS </li></ul><ul><li>POSSIBLE LIST OF COUNTRIES TO RECEIVE TPA FUNDING </li></ul>
  2. 3. <ul><li>E-TOURISM SUMMIT-October 12-13, 2011, San Francisco </li></ul><ul><li>E-TOURISM WORKSHOPS: TBA </li></ul><ul><li>3nd ACTIVE AMERICA SUMMIT/CHINA – April 18-20, Venetian Hotel Las Vegas </li></ul><ul><li>RECEPTIVE MARKETPLACE EVENTS </li></ul><ul><li>NAJ TOUR OPERATOR SUMMIT-WEST : Jan 31-Feb1, Los Angeles </li></ul>
  3. 4. <ul><li>The Inbound Report -16 years </li></ul><ul><li>The Destination Marketer </li></ul><ul><li>Tour and Travel Buzz </li></ul>
  4. 6. <ul><li>FOLLOW UP SERVICE </li></ul><ul><li>CONCIERGE </li></ul><ul><li>THANK YOU NOTES </li></ul>
  5. 8. <ul><li>INFLUENCING 4 Million Travelers </li></ul><ul><li>DIY PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT CAMPAIGN </li></ul><ul><li>INSTANT E-MAIL ALERTS SENT: </li></ul><ul><li>(average 40 per client in 7 months) </li></ul>
  6. 9. TOP COUNTRIES Visits ‘10 Visits ‘09 % chg 1. Canada 1,192 1053 11.7% 2. UK 1,055 997 5.5% 3. Germany 481 370 23.1% 4. Japan 349 289 17.2% 5. Netherlands 293 191 34.8% 6. Italy 254 150 40.9% 7. Denmark 220 145 34.1% 8. India 186 150 19.4% 9. Israel 179 127 29.1% 10. France 175 137 27.7% Source: Google Analytics
  7. 10. <ul><li>NAJ TraX ™ </li></ul><ul><li>1H 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>ROOM NIGHT PRODUCTION </li></ul>
  8. 11. <ul><li>147 Receptive Operators in database </li></ul><ul><li>14 Mn room nights-all receptives </li></ul><ul><li>140 Million Overseas leisure room Nights: Int’l (by air) </li></ul><ul><li>RTO’s book 10% of Int’l in 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>2.48 million bookings </li></ul>
  9. 12. <ul><li>AMERICAN RING </li></ul><ul><li>MEETING POINT </li></ul><ul><li>NEW WORLD </li></ul><ul><li>CITYTOURS </li></ul><ul><li>TEAM AMERICA </li></ul><ul><li>GO WEST </li></ul><ul><li>BONOTEL </li></ul><ul><li>HOTELBEDS </li></ul><ul><li>TOURICO </li></ul><ul><li>REGIONAL </li></ul><ul><li>CITYTOURS MAINE </li></ul><ul><li>ROCKY MTN HOLIDAY </li></ul><ul><li>COLUMBIA CROSSROADS </li></ul>
  10. 13. SEGMENT ROOM NIGHT PRODUCTION % Change PY FIT 3,428,010 13.2% GROUPS 654,759 16.8% TOTAL 4,082,769 13.9%
  11. 14. DESTINATIONS % CHANGE ‘10 vs ‘09 Las Vegas 24.8% Los Angeles 8.6 San Francisco 6.3 San Diego 22.8 Anaheim 17.0 Seattle 25.5 Phoenix 13.7 Scottsdale 1.8
  12. 15. DESTINATIONS % CHANGE ’10 vs ‘09 New York 9.0% Chicago 15.4 Philadelphia 36.2 New Orleans 32.0 Houston 13.7 Atlanta 18.4
  13. 16. <ul><li>Diversification to MICE Groups </li></ul><ul><li>International Sales Missions </li></ul><ul><li>More pre-buying rooms </li></ul><ul><li>US subsidiaries are expanding to new markets </li></ul><ul><li>Japanese:Up 20% so far, due to exchange rate and reinstated air; Diversification: JTB & HIS </li></ul><ul><li>3 Star properties up 30% </li></ul><ul><li>Value added: Free breakfast, Wi-fi </li></ul>
  14. 17. <ul><li>DMO’S: MORE $ to international Online Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>Role of GSA and Reps will change </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing Capacity For More Advanced Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Contracting with Fewer Properties Directly </li></ul><ul><li>More Bankruptcies in UK, Spain, Ireland </li></ul>
  15. 18. <ul><li>2004: Lack of Demand </li></ul><ul><li>2005: Hotel rates began climbing </li></ul><ul><li>2006: Growing Power of Revenue Managers </li></ul><ul><li>2007: Reduced Allotments & Blackouts </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Booking outside the industry </li></ul><ul><li>2009: Hotels Use OTA’s For Distressed Rooms </li></ul><ul><li>2010: Increase Exchange Rate vs Euro </li></ul><ul><li>2011: TSA </li></ul>
  16. 20. $1 = Jan 26 2011 Jan 26 2010 UK .629 .638 -.037% EUR .733 .735 +.26% JPY 82.4 91.8 -11.4% CAN 1.00 1.23 -18.6% MEX 12.8 12.9 -1.2% Brazil 1.67 1.79 -6.7%
  17. 21. <ul><li>Currency trends similar across key markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Loonie: 6-year increase through 2008. Reached par in Nov 2007, declined 20% back flirting with par throughout 2010…Steady outlook. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pound: 6-year increase through 2007. Exceeded $2 in Nov 2007. Down in 2008 and 2009. 2010 and beyond at $1.52-ish. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Euro: 7-year increase through 2008. 2009 down, but 2010 up to $1.41 In the $1.34-ish range through 2015. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Peso: Multi-decade slide continued through 2009. Current $0.08 higher than 2010 and beyond IMF forecast of $0.07-ish </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yen: Above and below $0.0088 average for a decade. Current $0.012 higher than IMF outlook of $0.011 through 2015. </li></ul></ul>
  18. 23. <ul><li>Positives: </li></ul><ul><li>Exchg rate at par and expected to remain so </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of WHTI legislation likely over </li></ul><ul><li>GDP nearly identical to USA </li></ul><ul><li>Negatives: Border delays </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast Growth 2011:6%. 6yr: 47% </li></ul>
  19. 24. <ul><li>2010 may break 2007 record- air accts for 11% </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Annual growth at 4-5% similar to Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Air portion of 11% is quite dispersed </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVE </li></ul><ul><li>Arrival growth continued despite long term exchange rate decline may not be sustainable </li></ul><ul><li>2011: + 5% 6yr forecast + 49% </li></ul><ul><li>-' </li></ul>
  20. 25. <ul><li>15% decline in 2009; flat in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>2000 was the high for arrivals to USA </li></ul><ul><li>GDP improving but slowly </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Interest at state levels </li></ul><ul><li>Improving GDP fro 1.7 to 2.5 in 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Xchg rate down from 2007 when it was $2:1, but same as ‘00 </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES </li></ul><ul><li>US share of total outbound is down </li></ul><ul><li>High unemployment, but improving </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011: 2%. 6 yr forecast+21% </li></ul>
  21. 26. <ul><li>Rebound of 13% in 2010 Moderate growth next three hrs 3-5% </li></ul><ul><li>Higher growth expected in 2014/2015 from TPA fundiing </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Robust growth for 10 consecutive months </li></ul><ul><li>Increased air capacity recovering from 2008-09 losses </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES : </li></ul><ul><li>Long term decline since 1995 </li></ul><ul><li>Population declining </li></ul><ul><li>Huge public debt to GDP ratio </li></ul><ul><li>Geo equity index of 7 lowest of top ten </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011 4 % 6 yr forecast 47% </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>
  22. 27. <ul><li>2010 should break record of 780k </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Outbound to USA growing for decade </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES : </li></ul><ul><li>Low growth through 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Geo Equity index of 14 is average, NY 59% </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011: 3% 6 Yr: 23% </li></ul>
  23. 28. <ul><li>#Up and Down since 1996, record yr of 2.0 mn </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment high but improving from 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>GEO Equity Index of 17- (2 nd highest) </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Total Outbound flat over last decade </li></ul><ul><li>GDP Growth declining from 3.3% to 1.3% in 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>IMF expects Euro to remain at current level for next 5 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011:+3% 6 Yr: 35% </li></ul>
  24. 29. <ul><li>Shows wild swings in volume </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Strong growth for 2010- 9.4% </li></ul><ul><li>CAC-40 down from 2007, but improving </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES </li></ul><ul><li>GDP growth low, but gradually improving to 2.1% in 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment at 8-10% levels </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011:2% 6 yr Growth: 30% </li></ul>
  25. 30. <ul><li>2010 volume of 1.2 mn shatters 1997 record </li></ul><ul><li>US outbound share fluctuates widely: 33% in ‘95, 10% in ‘04, 16% in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Strong GDP linked to exports to Asia, </li></ul><ul><li>Open skies agreement negotiated </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES; </li></ul><ul><li>High unemployment of 7.5% </li></ul><ul><li>Xchg rate could decline from $.55 </li></ul><ul><li>80% to FL and NY </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011: 17%, 6 Year: 198% </li></ul>
  26. 31. <ul><li>Growth in 2010-35% Due to visa waiver </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Strong outbound growth to USA </li></ul><ul><li>GDP Growth Strong through 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Visa Waiver as of 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES : </li></ul><ul><li>Population Growth is small </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism concentrated on West coast </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011:18% 6-Yr: 171% </li></ul>
  27. 32. <ul><li>End 2010 up 20%, Firing on all cylinders </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Total outbound and USA Share growing </li></ul><ul><li>Positive sentiment toward USA </li></ul><ul><li>Increase Air Capacity </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVE </li></ul><ul><li>Visits concentrated in NY, CA, NV, HI </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011:12% 6 Yr: 78% </li></ul>
  28. 33. <ul><li>2010: 632,000 +15% </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES </li></ul><ul><li>High growth rate for USA but from low base </li></ul><ul><li>US Spending/visitor $6,500, </li></ul><ul><li>High Population growth of Middle Class </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES: </li></ul><ul><li>GDP/capita is only $1,000, largest “travel possible” population from HHI </li></ul><ul><li>Few receptives service market </li></ul><ul><li>Low vacation/leisure % </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011:13% 6 Yr: 123% </li></ul>
  29. 34. <ul><li>2010: 40% increase; </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVES : </li></ul><ul><li>US Spend $6,800/visitor </li></ul><ul><li>GEO Equity-17-above average </li></ul><ul><li>Positive sentiment toward USA </li></ul><ul><li>NTA Grant to identify agencies capable of handling groups to US </li></ul><ul><li>NEGATIVES: </li></ul><ul><li>Low GDP/Cap $4k (large “travel possible” HH </li></ul><ul><li>FORECAST: 2011: +24% 6 Yr: 346 % </li></ul>
  30. 35. SOURCE COUNTRY % Change 2010 vs 09* (thru November 2009) % Change 2011/ 2010 % Change ‘ 2015/2009 Forecast UK -0.5% 1% 21% Japan 17.5 4% 47% Germany 3.1 3% 35% France 10.6 2% 30% Brazil 35.8 17% 198% Italy 11.3 3% 23% S.Korea 52.2 18% 171% Australia 25.7 12% 78% India 19.4 13% 123% China 55.2 24% 346^ Spain 7.1 2% 18% Canada 11.4 6% 47% Mexico 8.8 5% 49%
  31. 36. Travel Promotion Act
  32. 37. <ul><li>Canada </li></ul><ul><li>UK </li></ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Australia </li></ul>

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