2. El Nexo Agua-Energia-Desarollo:
riesgos naturales y interacciones entre
infraestrutura, clima y paisaje en
un marco de adaptación
a multiples escalas
Ana P. Barros
Duke University
Lima, March 22, 2013

3. Pilares de Adaptación
 Observaciones - Rigorosas, Consistentes, Dense, Extensas
 Analísis y Interpretación – Representación y modelos
Descoberta
Ciencia
Integración de datos e física >>> Contexto de riesgo
Evaluar Vulnerabilidades , “Breaking Points”

4. Ciclos Climáticos…
Dos series con Nilometer 622-1284 A.D.
media y variancia H=0.91
estadísticas iguales
The idea that
persistent
(0.5<H<1.0)
H=0.5 “Ruído Blanco”
movements in a
time series tend to
be part of larger
trends and cycles
more often than they
are completely
random.
From Koutsoyannis, 2004
(Mandelbrot and Wallis 1977, Hurst 1951, Barros and Evans 1996)

5. Renaissance
Y de un punto de vista regional,
local que significa? Revolución
Industrial

6. Analísis de Riesgo – Infraestrutura
Presa
Construída
?
Note la influencia de la duración del periodo de observación

7. Green, Renewable Energy
“Gran Muralla Andina”
India: Plans to build 292 hydroelectric dams in the
Himalayas
Environmental Services
Conectividad Hidrologica
Conectividad Ecologica
Material (Sedimentos, Nutrientes)
Sustainability /Climate
Finer and Jenkins, 2012

8. Endicamientos Naturales : Formación y Falla
Penna e al. 2012) HidroAgoyan Dam,
Pastaza River, Ecuador

9. Changing Mix of Stations: Raingauge Stations Over Time
(NOAA GHCN Dataset)
New et al. 2001
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC

10. GHCN-Monthly Version 3.0
• The dataset for global climate monitoring and assessment
– 7280 mean temperature stations; >20,000 precipitation stations
– Global coverage from 1880 to present
– GHCN-M Version 3 released in 2010 (temperature only)
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC

11. Estaciones hydrométricas
a)
Barros 2012

12. Estaciones hydrométricas
b)
1 – Africa
2 – Asia
3 – South America
4 – North America,
Central America,
and the Caribbean
5 – Europe
Elevation H [m]
6 – South-West Pacific
WMO Region
Barros 2012

13. Hydrometeorology of Mountainous Regions
Maritime vs Continental Tropical Monsoon Regimes
Mid-Latitude Seasonal Regimes
Global to Regional Scale Controls
Summit to Sea and Sea To Summit

14. From Clouds to River Networks
1st Principal Component of Cloudiness (IR Brightness)
Giovannetone and Barros 2008 and 2009

15. Warm Rain
Daytime
“Deep”
TRMM Central Andes
Convection
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009

16. Shallow Embedded Convection
Nighttime
TRMM Central Andes
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009

17. 1st order streams
TRMM PFs December 1998-2010
Wet season
3500m

18. Ridge-Valley, ET feedback,and
Mountain-Valley Circulations
Sunrise Forenoon
Noon Later Afternoon
Evening Early Night
Late Night
Middle of Night
to Morning
Rampanelli et al. (2004)

19. Lowman and Barros, 2013

20. Class Elevation
Range (m)
1 6000-3600
2 3599-2500
3 2499-2200
4 2199-1500
5 1499-1300
6 1299-900
7 899-500
8 499-0
AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011

21. AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011

22. First Observations Central Andes
San Pedro, Andes
2012
Rio Kospiñata
2011
Financiado por la NSF

23. Precipitable water
Precipitable
water from
ERA-
Interim
2011
ACRGs installed in 2011

24. Erlingis (2012)

25. Moisture transport – Andes
Vertically integrated moisture flux
Verano Invierno
Role of vegetation/ET in “harvesting” atmospheric moisture???

26. Weak LLJ Daily Precipitation
TRMM 3B42 ERA-Interim NCEP-FNL

27. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
Water Vapor Transport
1951-2010

28. Necessidades
Fundamentales de
Investigación
Monitoreo
Organización the Processos y Flujos en
el Paisaje en Multiples Escalas
Recursos Sostenibilidad
Riesgos