Victorvan Rij Sesti workshopmethodsintro2010

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Introduction for the discussion in the SESTI workshop on methods

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Victorvan Rij Sesti workshopmethodsintro2010

  1. 1. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and HumanitiesConcept and approaches in the SESTI project Victor van RijWorkshop on Methods, 26th of Oktober 2010 University Foundation, Brussels
  2. 2. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and HumanitiesWorkpackages SESTI
  3. 3. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Main valuesEWS Pool of EWS And potential Selected new emerging issues Discourse on emerging issues Emerging Issues A…. N & wild card descriptions Policy action and values Criteria Interests, Emotions, Facts Tanslate & with accompanying signals & Selection Dosage EWS EWS Analysis High Level EC Synthesis research policy EWS EWS High Level EC EWS Potential New EWS EWS energy policy EWS EWS Emerging High Level EC EWS Issue A health High Level EC policyEWS Potential New EWS EWS health policy Emerging High Level EC EWS IssuePotential New National High employment Emerging EWS Level research policy Potential New National high EWS Issue EWS policy EWS Emerging level health EWS EWS EWS Issue B policy National High Potential New EWS Emerging Level energy Issue research policy EWS EWS Potential New EWS Regional policy Emerging Issue B C W General public EWS others EWS C
  4. 4. Early warning signals of the 2007 financial crisis Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities News on public risks subprime loans sample on News google timeline 100 90 80 70 Number of articles in sample 60 percentage not paying back (subprime/alt a)articles 50 Amount loaned subprime and alt-a (x100 million US dollars) 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 years/quarters
  5. 5. Examples of early warning Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities signals• Its a bomb! Shout in crowd sets-off stampede at Amsterdam War Memorial
  6. 6. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities POTENTIAL EMERGING ISSUES & WEAK SIGNALS Negative behavior Growing suicides against aged people amongst poor elderly?- Increase post/nearAge discrimination retirement death? Nano-medicin promises increase in to cure every disease employment? Agism lays around the corner Demographic models in Europese ageing future show 30-40 % above 65 say social scientist in 2040 Succes in cancer research increase life expectancyIndividualization of society (trend) Radical pension system change Successful integration Negative news articles needed according young migrants on aged people to chief economists Indication for next Economic recovery not financial crisis sure
  7. 7. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities POTENTIAL EMERGING ISSUES & WEAK SIGNALS Negative behavior Growing suicides against aged people amongst poor elderly?- Increase post/nearAge discrimination retirement death? Nano-medicin promises increase in to cure every disease employment? Agism lays around the corner Demographic models in Europes ageing future show 30-40 % above 65 says social scientist in 2040 Succes in cancer research increase lifeIndividualization of expectancy society (trend) Successful integration Negative news articles Radical pension system change young migrants on aged people needed according to chief economists Indication for next financial crisis Economic recovery not sure
  8. 8. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Potential wild cardsWarning card Think card Lobby card Propaganda card
  9. 9. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Questions Workshop• Policy relatedness• 1. How are scanning activities related to policies? Aggregation level and timing ? Unpleasant news? Does the• policy area impose certain methodological choices (except for budget constraints) ?• (please give your experience on this)
  10. 10. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Questions Workshop• Priority setting and clustering• 2. What are the practices and procedures of priority setting and /or clustering you use or prefer? How are you• conducting priority setting and clustering for what reasons. Who is involved in the process of priority setting?• What can be expected from policy makers in the process?
  11. 11. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Questions Workshop• The use of early warning signals signals and where to start• 3. What is the role of (weak or early) signals, should and can (early‐weak) signals be used to detect complete• new unknown emerging issues? Or can they only be used to determine the emergence or dissolving of• "proposed" emerging issues? In your experience, what are the procedures to get the useful signals?• (can you give of examples on how you have done it or would like to do it based on your experience‐ with• examples of (proposed) new emerging issues and weak signals)
  12. 12. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Questions Workshop• Deeper analysis• 4. If a proposed new emerging issues or a weak signals is detected, further analysis is usually needed (for• instance on the factual or evidence basis or its source) . What should the further analysis of potential emerging• issues contain for which reason? What are the methods you use in regard to further analysis (tracing back on• internet, expert consultation, use of specific databases …)?
  13. 13. Project funded under the Socio- economic Sciences and Humanities Questions Workshop• Role of automation and textmining• 5. What could be the role of automatic processes in the Horizonscanning procedures? How are you using• automatic processes within scanning and what kind of support do you want from automatic processes?• (please write down your experience with this and sketch what do you expect for the future and what are the

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