The document summarizes the objectives and activities of the SESTI project, which is funded by the European Commission to research methods for identifying emerging science and technology issues. The project aims to assess scanning tools and methods for early warnings and explore ways to connect scanning results to the policymaking community. SESTI focuses on healthcare, energy, and other sectors, examining organizational changes, science/technology developments, and public perceptions. It defines "wild cards" as surprising events that could significantly impact the future and discusses identifying and analyzing potential wild cards through published narratives and discussion of them.
Sesti workshop-cognitive enhancement futuresVictor Van Rij
This document summarizes a workshop on cognitive enhancement that discussed: the hopes and fears around future human evolution with cognitive enhancement; levels of enhancement from temporary aids to enhancing basic abilities; main motives for cognitive enhancement including individual and societal benefits; and main pathways for enhancement including social/psychological, biological, and tools. It analyzed weak signals around the progress of developments in pathways, identifying emerging ethical issues especially around neuro-reading, implants, enhancement drugs, genetic screening and IVF, and commercial interests.
Sesti project: Global Sustainable Energy optionsVictor Van Rij
This presentation gives the result of the emerging issues analysis of the SESTI project on the energy domain in 2010. It provides the questions around 5 of the less well known future sustainable options/risks that were discussed in the project. The topics that were addressed are still worth while to review today.
These topics were :
1. Enhancement of the photosynthetic cycle on global scale to provide all food, energy and maintain biodiversity (briefly biomimics)
2. Use of desert areas for gaining solar energy (the DESERTEC scheme)
3. Hybrid nuclear fission-fusion to speed up nuclear fusion
4. The unknown risks of going deeper and further for energy mining
5. The unknown risks of and hydrogen leaking economy
Future of education: Learning and teaching in an ICT revolutionising worldVictor Van Rij
The document discusses the need for visionary policies and teaching approaches to prepare society for an increasingly technology-driven world. It summarizes that previous communication revolutions transformed society and education needs. To thrive in today's ICT revolution, students must learn digital literacy, collaboration, and continuous skills updating. However, not all will achieve these competencies without support. Teachers require training and schools need equipment upgrades. Curricula must incorporate fast-changing ICT skills. Significant investments are needed from governments and industry to implement new education strategies and technologies.
Victorvan Rij Sesti weaksignals Cognitive Enhancement2010Victor Van Rij
The document discusses cognitive enhancement and identifies weak signals related to its development. It covers:
1) Past and potential future pathways of cognitive enhancement, including social/educational and biological methods.
2) Hopes for enhancement like preventing impairment, and fears around risks to humanity.
3) A search identifying 40 weak signals, mostly in biology and tools, with few on social/psychological impacts.
4) Key emerging issues relate to neuroimaging, implants, drugs and genetics raising concerns around ethics, equality and eugenics.
5) Further analysis is needed on costs/benefits of different enhancement methods and priorities between performance vs. development. weak signals were somewhat limited in identifying societal and economic impacts.
The document discusses horizon scanning, which involves systematically searching for potential issues that could have a high impact on important matters. It compares horizon scanning processes in the UK, Netherlands, and Denmark. While the aims and methods differ slightly, there is a large overlap in the issues identified. Horizon scanning can feed into policymaking and research agendas but challenges include prioritizing issues and connecting to other scans. The document argues that horizon scanning should involve democratic, participatory processes to better serve knowledge democracy and governance.
Sesti workshop-cognitive enhancement futuresVictor Van Rij
This document summarizes a workshop on cognitive enhancement that discussed: the hopes and fears around future human evolution with cognitive enhancement; levels of enhancement from temporary aids to enhancing basic abilities; main motives for cognitive enhancement including individual and societal benefits; and main pathways for enhancement including social/psychological, biological, and tools. It analyzed weak signals around the progress of developments in pathways, identifying emerging ethical issues especially around neuro-reading, implants, enhancement drugs, genetic screening and IVF, and commercial interests.
Sesti project: Global Sustainable Energy optionsVictor Van Rij
This presentation gives the result of the emerging issues analysis of the SESTI project on the energy domain in 2010. It provides the questions around 5 of the less well known future sustainable options/risks that were discussed in the project. The topics that were addressed are still worth while to review today.
These topics were :
1. Enhancement of the photosynthetic cycle on global scale to provide all food, energy and maintain biodiversity (briefly biomimics)
2. Use of desert areas for gaining solar energy (the DESERTEC scheme)
3. Hybrid nuclear fission-fusion to speed up nuclear fusion
4. The unknown risks of going deeper and further for energy mining
5. The unknown risks of and hydrogen leaking economy
Future of education: Learning and teaching in an ICT revolutionising worldVictor Van Rij
The document discusses the need for visionary policies and teaching approaches to prepare society for an increasingly technology-driven world. It summarizes that previous communication revolutions transformed society and education needs. To thrive in today's ICT revolution, students must learn digital literacy, collaboration, and continuous skills updating. However, not all will achieve these competencies without support. Teachers require training and schools need equipment upgrades. Curricula must incorporate fast-changing ICT skills. Significant investments are needed from governments and industry to implement new education strategies and technologies.
Victorvan Rij Sesti weaksignals Cognitive Enhancement2010Victor Van Rij
The document discusses cognitive enhancement and identifies weak signals related to its development. It covers:
1) Past and potential future pathways of cognitive enhancement, including social/educational and biological methods.
2) Hopes for enhancement like preventing impairment, and fears around risks to humanity.
3) A search identifying 40 weak signals, mostly in biology and tools, with few on social/psychological impacts.
4) Key emerging issues relate to neuroimaging, implants, drugs and genetics raising concerns around ethics, equality and eugenics.
5) Further analysis is needed on costs/benefits of different enhancement methods and priorities between performance vs. development. weak signals were somewhat limited in identifying societal and economic impacts.
The document discusses horizon scanning, which involves systematically searching for potential issues that could have a high impact on important matters. It compares horizon scanning processes in the UK, Netherlands, and Denmark. While the aims and methods differ slightly, there is a large overlap in the issues identified. Horizon scanning can feed into policymaking and research agendas but challenges include prioritizing issues and connecting to other scans. The document argues that horizon scanning should involve democratic, participatory processes to better serve knowledge democracy and governance.
Who needs a teacher in the 21st century Higher Education?Victor Van Rij
Presentation to the 2014 , UNESCO, IITE conference held from 14-15 October in Moscow, New challenges for Pedagogy and Quality of Education, MOOCs, Clouds and Mobiles
This is A Dutch presentation arguing that the concept of "life expectancy" is rather covering up the fact that mortality chance is sharp increasing after certain ages and moreover very dependent on education level and sex. If wanted I can translate the presentation to English
Responsibility of universities. Future of university social (sustainable) re...Victor Van Rij
Keynote speech for the International Conference for the Management of Educational Quality within the University Social Responsibility. 21st of September 2016, Merida, Mexico
Plea is made to use the principles of coorporate governance to lead the transformation process of Universities towards Social Responsibility that takes into account general ethical values , as well as the duty to work with and for society towards sustainability.
Victor Van Rij Ircg Wildcards24 10presentation Abu D Abi[1]Victor Van Rij
The document discusses horizon scanning and wild cards as tools for shaping desirable futures and preparing for potential shocks and disruptions. It defines wild cards as low-probability but high-impact events that could significantly alter society and the future course of events. Both naturally-caused and human-caused wild cards are examined, with the latter being influenced by ideas, communication, and the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies. The value of wild card identification is discussed as a way to increase policy resilience and monitor early signals of disruptive changes. However, human-caused wild cards also pose risks if used to propagate undesirable narratives. Careful analysis of motivations and cultural contexts is needed when horizon scanning for potential wild cards.
21st Century Higher Education foresight 25 march 2015 [Autosaved]Victor Van Rij
The document provides an analysis of perspectives from future studies on the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICT) and higher education. It discusses several main trends, including:
1) Societal trends like increased mobility and younger generations learning differently will impact higher education.
2) Technological trends like ubiquitous internet access, massive open online courses, and augmented reality will provide new opportunities for learning.
3) Economic trends like rising youth unemployment and need for ICT skills will shape higher education systems and business models.
4) Environmental trends like addressing global challenges will require innovative thinking from higher education.
5) Policy trends around issues like privatization, enrollment goals, and digital literacy standards will influence higher education
To better prepare policy and decision makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments, FTA methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the SESTI project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers in identify areas of intervention by policy formulation. The paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues characterising horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
This document provides instructions for a 3,500 word media archaeology research project. Students are asked to research and analyze a specific media technology or practice from the past and discuss how it relates to modern media. Possible topics include obsolete imaging technologies, regional influences on media development, or the media archaeological origins of contemporary practices. The research should use available sources like online archives and libraries to understand how past ideas and technologies still influence media today.
This document provides instructions for a 3,500 word media archaeology research project. Students are asked to research and analyze a specific media technology or practice from the past and discuss how it relates to modern media. Possible topics include obsolete image and video technologies, local artistic traditions, or the origins of contemporary online media. The project should demonstrate the ability to conduct research using online and library sources, and write clearly about the historical development or lack thereof for the chosen topic. It should also consider how the topic challenges dominant ideas about media history or shows potential avenues for future exploration.
This document provides an overview of Martha G. Russell's presentation on transformational value creation through network orchestration to Danish advertising executives. The presentation discusses forces affecting today's work environment and skills, levers for knowledge network productivity, and guidelines for network orchestration. It provides examples of public-private partnerships, research consortia, startups in various fields, and work related to technology transfer, marketing, and organizational change. The presentation emphasizes the importance of relationships in innovation ecosystems and outlines Stanford University's uniqueness in bridging academia and industry through its culture and resources.
Thesis Topics and Proposals @ Polimi Data Science Lab - 2023 - prof. Brambill...Marco Brambilla
The document outlines various thesis topics proposed by Marco Brambilla in areas such as explainable AI, data science, gamification, and using ChatGPT for software engineering tasks. Specific proposals include using gamification for data collection and evaluation of AI explanations, applying data science to societal challenges, and exploring the use of ChatGPT for generating UML and BPMN models.
The document provides an overview of the theory of social construction of technology (SCOT). It discusses key concepts such as interpretive flexibility, relevant social groups, stabilization and controversies. SCOT views technological development as an interactive process that is shaped by engineers/technologists and social groups. It emerged from the sociology of scientific knowledge and holds that technology, like science, is socially constructed rather than following an independent logical path. The trajectory of a technology depends on how social groups interpret and assign meaning to it.
Seminar: Fabian Scholtes on moral knowledge in technology-based developmentSTEPS Centre
Fabian Scholtes, Centre for Development Research, Bonn gives a STEPS Centre seminar entitled Moral values and Solar Panels: moral knowledge in technology-based development For more information see: http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsseminars.html
This document summarizes a webinar discussing whether science is a blessing or a curse. The webinar included discussions on the aims of progress, when progress goes wrong, and the psychological factors that influence how humans perceive risks. Experts from fields of clinical psychology and computer science participated. Audience members were also able to ask questions. The webinar aimed to explore both the benefits of science and technology as well as their potential dark sides or unintended consequences.
Slides "Science: Curse & Blessing" (27 September 2011)bfnd
This document summarizes a webinar discussing whether science is a blessing or a curse. The webinar included discussions on the aims of progress, when progress goes wrong, and the psychological factors that influence how humans perceive risks. Experts from fields of clinical psychology and computer science participated. Audience members were also able to ask questions. The webinar aimed to explore both the benefits of science and technology as well as their potential dark sides or unintended consequences.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures and experiences from the current Societal Dialogue on Nanotechnologies in the Netherlands.
The document introduces the Joint Exploratory Society for Interdisciplinary and Cognitive Studies (JESICS or J6) project funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). The project aims to establish a research group and cognition lab in Egypt focused on sketch recognition. It will bring together researchers from Ain Shams University and Cairo University in Egypt with partners from the universities of Osnabrück and Münster in Germany. Over three years, the project will form a research team, set up a cognition lab, conduct workshops, provide training opportunities, and perform studies on sketch perception and representation to develop a model for sketch recognition.
Massive Open Online Courses from a Social Innovations (Madrid workshop)Christian Voigt
This document discusses social innovations in massive open online courses (MOOCs) from the perspective of an EU project. It outlines two objectives of aligning diverse stakeholders in technology-enhanced learning communities and facilitating collaborative action. It explores how to identify social innovation in digital education when time is limited. Key challenges in finding social facts related to innovations are differentiation, normativity, context, and impact. The document then provides an overview of MOOCs and discusses challenges such as sustainability, scaling innovations, and enabling systemic change through smaller interconnected innovations and reflexive practices.
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...NordForsk
The SAMRISK II project aims to address new and unknown vulnerabilities in society through stress-testing existing approaches. The project will (1) explore how stress-testing methods can be applied to societal threats, and (2) use stress-testing to identify the limitations of current risk analysis and resilience methods for complex emerging threats. It involves researchers from Norway, the US, and other Nordic countries, with a budget of 7 million Norwegian krone over 3 years.
Leading research in technoscience institutttseminar-281010NTNU
The document discusses how anthropology can lead research in technoscience using a phronetic approach. It presents three case studies where the author took on roles like facilitator, ethnographer and IT developer. Through these cases, the author applied concepts from actor-network theory like translation, inscription and punctualization to understand how technologies and organizations shape one another. The cases helped address questions about where developments are going, their desirability and how to inform practice using practical and value-rational approaches like phronesis.
Who needs a teacher in the 21st century Higher Education?Victor Van Rij
Presentation to the 2014 , UNESCO, IITE conference held from 14-15 October in Moscow, New challenges for Pedagogy and Quality of Education, MOOCs, Clouds and Mobiles
This is A Dutch presentation arguing that the concept of "life expectancy" is rather covering up the fact that mortality chance is sharp increasing after certain ages and moreover very dependent on education level and sex. If wanted I can translate the presentation to English
Responsibility of universities. Future of university social (sustainable) re...Victor Van Rij
Keynote speech for the International Conference for the Management of Educational Quality within the University Social Responsibility. 21st of September 2016, Merida, Mexico
Plea is made to use the principles of coorporate governance to lead the transformation process of Universities towards Social Responsibility that takes into account general ethical values , as well as the duty to work with and for society towards sustainability.
Victor Van Rij Ircg Wildcards24 10presentation Abu D Abi[1]Victor Van Rij
The document discusses horizon scanning and wild cards as tools for shaping desirable futures and preparing for potential shocks and disruptions. It defines wild cards as low-probability but high-impact events that could significantly alter society and the future course of events. Both naturally-caused and human-caused wild cards are examined, with the latter being influenced by ideas, communication, and the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies. The value of wild card identification is discussed as a way to increase policy resilience and monitor early signals of disruptive changes. However, human-caused wild cards also pose risks if used to propagate undesirable narratives. Careful analysis of motivations and cultural contexts is needed when horizon scanning for potential wild cards.
21st Century Higher Education foresight 25 march 2015 [Autosaved]Victor Van Rij
The document provides an analysis of perspectives from future studies on the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICT) and higher education. It discusses several main trends, including:
1) Societal trends like increased mobility and younger generations learning differently will impact higher education.
2) Technological trends like ubiquitous internet access, massive open online courses, and augmented reality will provide new opportunities for learning.
3) Economic trends like rising youth unemployment and need for ICT skills will shape higher education systems and business models.
4) Environmental trends like addressing global challenges will require innovative thinking from higher education.
5) Policy trends around issues like privatization, enrollment goals, and digital literacy standards will influence higher education
To better prepare policy and decision makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments, FTA methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the SESTI project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers in identify areas of intervention by policy formulation. The paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues characterising horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
This document provides instructions for a 3,500 word media archaeology research project. Students are asked to research and analyze a specific media technology or practice from the past and discuss how it relates to modern media. Possible topics include obsolete imaging technologies, regional influences on media development, or the media archaeological origins of contemporary practices. The research should use available sources like online archives and libraries to understand how past ideas and technologies still influence media today.
This document provides instructions for a 3,500 word media archaeology research project. Students are asked to research and analyze a specific media technology or practice from the past and discuss how it relates to modern media. Possible topics include obsolete image and video technologies, local artistic traditions, or the origins of contemporary online media. The project should demonstrate the ability to conduct research using online and library sources, and write clearly about the historical development or lack thereof for the chosen topic. It should also consider how the topic challenges dominant ideas about media history or shows potential avenues for future exploration.
This document provides an overview of Martha G. Russell's presentation on transformational value creation through network orchestration to Danish advertising executives. The presentation discusses forces affecting today's work environment and skills, levers for knowledge network productivity, and guidelines for network orchestration. It provides examples of public-private partnerships, research consortia, startups in various fields, and work related to technology transfer, marketing, and organizational change. The presentation emphasizes the importance of relationships in innovation ecosystems and outlines Stanford University's uniqueness in bridging academia and industry through its culture and resources.
Thesis Topics and Proposals @ Polimi Data Science Lab - 2023 - prof. Brambill...Marco Brambilla
The document outlines various thesis topics proposed by Marco Brambilla in areas such as explainable AI, data science, gamification, and using ChatGPT for software engineering tasks. Specific proposals include using gamification for data collection and evaluation of AI explanations, applying data science to societal challenges, and exploring the use of ChatGPT for generating UML and BPMN models.
The document provides an overview of the theory of social construction of technology (SCOT). It discusses key concepts such as interpretive flexibility, relevant social groups, stabilization and controversies. SCOT views technological development as an interactive process that is shaped by engineers/technologists and social groups. It emerged from the sociology of scientific knowledge and holds that technology, like science, is socially constructed rather than following an independent logical path. The trajectory of a technology depends on how social groups interpret and assign meaning to it.
Seminar: Fabian Scholtes on moral knowledge in technology-based developmentSTEPS Centre
Fabian Scholtes, Centre for Development Research, Bonn gives a STEPS Centre seminar entitled Moral values and Solar Panels: moral knowledge in technology-based development For more information see: http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsseminars.html
This document summarizes a webinar discussing whether science is a blessing or a curse. The webinar included discussions on the aims of progress, when progress goes wrong, and the psychological factors that influence how humans perceive risks. Experts from fields of clinical psychology and computer science participated. Audience members were also able to ask questions. The webinar aimed to explore both the benefits of science and technology as well as their potential dark sides or unintended consequences.
Slides "Science: Curse & Blessing" (27 September 2011)bfnd
This document summarizes a webinar discussing whether science is a blessing or a curse. The webinar included discussions on the aims of progress, when progress goes wrong, and the psychological factors that influence how humans perceive risks. Experts from fields of clinical psychology and computer science participated. Audience members were also able to ask questions. The webinar aimed to explore both the benefits of science and technology as well as their potential dark sides or unintended consequences.
Different forms of expertise in democratising technological cultures and experiences from the current Societal Dialogue on Nanotechnologies in the Netherlands.
The document introduces the Joint Exploratory Society for Interdisciplinary and Cognitive Studies (JESICS or J6) project funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). The project aims to establish a research group and cognition lab in Egypt focused on sketch recognition. It will bring together researchers from Ain Shams University and Cairo University in Egypt with partners from the universities of Osnabrück and Münster in Germany. Over three years, the project will form a research team, set up a cognition lab, conduct workshops, provide training opportunities, and perform studies on sketch perception and representation to develop a model for sketch recognition.
Massive Open Online Courses from a Social Innovations (Madrid workshop)Christian Voigt
This document discusses social innovations in massive open online courses (MOOCs) from the perspective of an EU project. It outlines two objectives of aligning diverse stakeholders in technology-enhanced learning communities and facilitating collaborative action. It explores how to identify social innovation in digital education when time is limited. Key challenges in finding social facts related to innovations are differentiation, normativity, context, and impact. The document then provides an overview of MOOCs and discusses challenges such as sustainability, scaling innovations, and enabling systemic change through smaller interconnected innovations and reflexive practices.
Fred størseth. new strains of society hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabil...NordForsk
The SAMRISK II project aims to address new and unknown vulnerabilities in society through stress-testing existing approaches. The project will (1) explore how stress-testing methods can be applied to societal threats, and (2) use stress-testing to identify the limitations of current risk analysis and resilience methods for complex emerging threats. It involves researchers from Norway, the US, and other Nordic countries, with a budget of 7 million Norwegian krone over 3 years.
Leading research in technoscience institutttseminar-281010NTNU
The document discusses how anthropology can lead research in technoscience using a phronetic approach. It presents three case studies where the author took on roles like facilitator, ethnographer and IT developer. Through these cases, the author applied concepts from actor-network theory like translation, inscription and punctualization to understand how technologies and organizations shape one another. The cases helped address questions about where developments are going, their desirability and how to inform practice using practical and value-rational approaches like phronesis.
This document discusses future foresight and trends. It begins by noting how much has changed in just 20 years and some predictions for the next 10 years, including advances in areas like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and renewable energy. It then discusses concepts like megatrends, weak signals, scenarios, and different levels of foresight from macro to micro. Various tools for futures work are presented, along with sources for finding weak signals and trends. Population aging and its economic impacts are highlighted. The importance of foresight for strategic management is stressed, and motivations of future employees are considered.
Enterprise risk management frameworks help organizations manage uncertainty and introduce strategic management frameworks to address risks. These include frameworks for corporate foresight, business planning, enterprise architecture, risk management, and performance management. Futures studies techniques like horizon scanning and analyzing drivers of change can provide insights to inform risk management and strategic decision making.
This presentation was held for the FTA conference. It stresses the importance of "Wild card and impact rich issue" narratives as instruments that are used by individuals and groups as mean to influence future developments.
The document discusses emerging issues and wild cards as potential future shapers and how they can influence political discourse and decision making. It defines emerging issues as logically connected topics or trends that create a coherent story, and wild cards as low probability but high impact events. It examines how emerging issues and wild cards have strength as "shakers" when they have already occurred and influence discourse, and strength as "shapers" when they could potentially occur in the future. The document recommends distinguishing between naturally and human-caused emerging issues and wild cards since they require different methodological approaches, and calls for more research on how narratives influence decision makers.
1. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Emerging Issues:
Results from Horizon Scanning and
Policy Workshops
Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente Carabias,
Totti Könnölä, Miriam Leis, Ozcan Saritas, Petra
Schaper-Rinkel, Victor van Rij
26-10-2011
The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak
signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European
Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues
2. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
2
Objectives of the SESTI project
• Researching the added value of early warning
signal scanning to identify emerging issues
(including surprising ones)
• Assessing the pro’s and con’s of exploratory and
issue-centred scanning methods and tools
• Identifying ways to connect scanning to the
policy-making community
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
3. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
4
Content orientation of SESTI
1. Focus on functional aspects of the innovation system
2. Focus on content
Healthcare Energy To be chosen
Organizational changes
X X X
Science and technology
developments X X X
Public perception X X X
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
4. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
5
Definition and criteria wild cards
Special kind of issue:
• An event or serie (cascade) of events (with seemingly low
probability?)
• changing the settings of our world completely (causing highly
impredictable and high impact shocks/disruptions)
• Which we hardly see or we do not want to see coming(surprising
many)
• Earth quakes of the mental landscape (Karlheinz Steinmuller), black
swans (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
• When they occurs it is hard to see how they will (r)evolve, period of
high uncertainty
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
5. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
6
Types of wild cards
• That have happened
• That may happen : Imagined (by author ------------ by imagination
process)or search for potential wild cards (i-Know, Far horizon)
___________________________________
• Nature caused (volcano, earthquake etc)
• Human caused (non intentionally, panic in the crowd , berlin wall ,
intentionally, terrorist attack)
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
6. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
7
Imagined wild cards
• Narratives with Facts , Impacts, Novelty, Plausibility, interests, desires
(wish , fear , ideal, lobby cards)
• Instruments to shape or shake future to desire/ideal/interests of
card initiator, sometimes deliberately opposite to desire (evoking
fear)
• Strength of a card not only facts> Assessment should look at , facts ,
logics, but also who is initiating the signals, what are the interests and
values that are at stake, who is relaying, supporting, who is blocking or
opposing, what is the message doing with emotions of the receivers
etc
-------------------------------------------------
• (SESTI) Searching Published Imagined Wild cards (initiators action) or
(Far Horizon, i-Know) Wild cards creating on demand
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
7. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
9
SESTI - Early warning signals
• Primary signal : someone pushes or asks for attention by placing
(scientific) article(s) or video’s with more or less full description of a
wild cards (large breakthrough, opportunity, threat, sniping dangerous
trends usually with large impact and even policy suggestions)
• Secundary signals: opposing or confirming (scientific) articles ,
reactions, discussion with arguments and links (blogs),
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
8. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
10
SESTI Thinking model
TREND
Sea of Signals
Emerging issue A
Hype issue C Emerging issue F
WC Hype issue D
WC
Emerging issue B
Emerging issue E
Emerging issue G
Past Present Future
SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference 11/11/2011
9. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Your choices will lead my stories
• Rebalancing the greenhouse in prosperity! Nourishing mother earth!
• LNER! Cheap , abundant and clean energy, right now !
• Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation !
• Re-prioritising health research? Prevention vs. Cure
• Mental health in an ageing society
• Obesity, a global epidemic marches (lifestyles and unhealthy markets)
• Influencing and reading brains
• Influencing embryonic and evolutionary cognitive development of
humans
• ICT-enhanced learning systems
10. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Rebalancing the greenhouse-
by re-greening earth & enhancing the carbon cycle
• WW policy Expanding and enhance the green space for energy, food,
carbon products and sequestration
• Using desert land to catch the sun through irrigation (in DESERTEC like
arrangements or by salt water use(tallophytes or cyanobacteria) or
even artificial vegetation (start with PV heath solar end with biomass
increase)
• Improve the efficiency of total photo synthetic production of natual
vegetation , forest and agricultural areas (by ecomanagement, crop
selection , biotechnology - C4 plants)
• Further future : development of artificial photosynthesis to
sequestrate Carbon and to produce fuel
11. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
20 % of the land is desert
http://emden-weinert.de/Namibia/intro.html
12. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
16
Most of the land is not very productive
Figure 5. Average world net primary production of various ecosystems.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
13. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
17
The solar fueled-carboncycle 2011
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
14. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
18
Re-greened earth – 10 Giga Ton extra will do
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
15. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
19
Re-greening the earth
Keine
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
16. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
The signals
• p1. Biomimics articles , the ideal solar cells transforms sunlight into fuel, based
on imitation of biological systems
• p2. Desertec using desertland (in North Africa) to create electricity through
solar powerplants – creating agricultural conditions and exporting electricity
with High Voltage DC technique to Europe at the same time
• s3. Articles on Artificial photosynthesis to sequestrate and to make fuel
• s4. Articles on biotech improving photosynthetic efficiency in crops and
efficienvy competition of plants and PV cells
• s5. NASA brainstorm (use tallophyta and salt water cyanobacteria culture on
land to prodcuce energy)
• S6. US-Forestry techniques to sequestrate more carbon/Germany wooden mills
17. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Impacts
• Nearly sustainable, local and central energy provisions possible
gradual sequestration of atmospheric overdose of CO2
• Almost no need for materials that may be scarce or polluting
• Land use (countries have different expanding possibilities),
agricultural and forestry policy (is also about energy) , carbon
pricing
• Fuel versus electricity (competition or cohesion between “bio” and
other “tech”) – artificial still long time to go
• Possible loss of Biodiversity (Desert land species )
• Nutrient cycle stress, earth radiance balance
18. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
23
1 MW unit will go online later in October
Very cheap and abundant “clean” energy
Rossi's 1 MW Cold Fusion E-Cat Reactor
Test on 28th of October 2011
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
19. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Low temperature Nuclear Fusion without radiation
• Recent developments indicate that clean “nuclear fusion” will be available
within the coming decade without the special and expensive requirements
that were foreseen in the Nuclear fusion Inertial confinement and plasma
fusion projects (like ITER and NIF) that still need 40 to 50 years before any
application.
• After the scientific community felt over the announcement of Fleischman and
Pons that they had discovered a simple way to create cold fusion, no one
considered to put his career at stake by retrying the experiments that many
already tried before in vain
• The contradiction of “low temperature induced” nuclear fusion with many
basic findings of nuclear physics and the bad reproducibility of the
experiments, caused an almost complete “forbidden”area of science.
• Still some groups went on , amongst them the SPAWAR lab and later on other,
gradually creating more reproducible “anomalous” results, leading to a strong
interest of US military in 2006 and renewed attention of NASA in 2009 and
finally the claim of an Italian that he can create energy form hydrogen and
nickel in 2010
20. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Signals
• P1. In 2004 cold fusion was mentioned in the Dutch horizon scan (continuous
stream of underground results with anomalous heat – SPAWAR reports(2002)
• S1.Increasing number of a variety of experiments in different countries (with
other cathodes, gas in stead of liquid environment, anomalous heat but also
transmutation of elements, Iwamuri , Mitsubishu) – hiding under LNER, CANR
• S2.American chemical society and American Physical society start to put cold
fusion results on the agenda of their regular worskhops
• S3.+8 Interest of the Military in US (nov 2009 Defence Analysis Report, 12 dec
2006 DTRA workshop)
• S4. Japanese public demonstration of excess heat electrolytic device
• S5.Italian nickel-hydrogen gas device, Focardi/Piantelli claims high repeatable
anomalous heat output (2005) , test CERN (unclear outcome), test NASA
(confirms anomalous heat)
• P 2 2010 Josephson (former Nobel prize winner) and Bushnell (science
director) at NASA speak out the expectation that cold fusion will
revolutionizethe energy domain
• Both seeing theory of Widom and Larsen as hypotheses that may fit within the
slowly evolving nuclear physics paradigm
• S7. Rossi claims his 1 megawatt test after public demonstrations of 4 – 12 kilo
watt devices (based on Focardi device)
21. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
IMPACT
• Cold nuclear fusion will be very cheap (10 times cheaper than oil) , it is
simply to produce and leaves no radioactive waste, 1 kg of nickel and
17 gram of hydrogen produce 1 megawatt heat a year , which is
tranformed into steam this equals the burning of 1200 Ton of
Charcoal
• Small and large units (back to steam engines) , usefull for heating, and
producing kinetic energy and electricity production , water may be a
limiting problem for small mobile applications
• Enormous shift in energy global production, total disruption, but much
quicker to reduction of green house gases
• Threat to projects as ITER, but also for renewable developers and
investors as well as fossil energy investors
• Shifts in power of energy producers (companies , countries)
• Many new questions for Physics (can the paradigm hold)
• Conflicts on patents
• Search for safety and environmental risk
22. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation
23. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Hybrid nuclear energy
The Story
• Hybrids may be feasible in 20 yrs
• Nuclear fusion 20-30 yrs earlier than expected
• Getting rid of nuclear waste and arms
• 30 % to 60 % of US electricity nuclear in 2100
• Prolonging existing fission reactors
24. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Hybrid nuclear energy
Other aspects
• Feasibility, Accidents and safety (MIT critics)
• Fear for invisible threat
• Prolonging existing fission reactors
• Centralized energy production
• Interests , the present nuclears, military, the greens?
25. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Hybrid nuclear energy, policy aspects
• New research development spin off to real fusion
• Safety seems key
• Investment choices
• Public debate
26. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
31
Issue: Re-prioritising health research?
Prevention vs. cure
It is a fact that a number of simple preventive measures such as
consumption of nutritious foods, better personal hygiene, and
sanitation both when handling food and during medical treatment
have contributed significantly to improved levels of health.
Nevertheless, most medical research funding is channelled into ways of
treating disorders rather then to methods of preventing disease.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
27. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
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32
Issue: Re-prioritising health research?
Prevention vs. cure
• Is prevention better than cure?
• Personalised medical treatment: Luxury health vs basic health?
• Deepening the gap between health services?
• Diversification in medicine; early detection of cancer what is it good for if we
cannot heal? Drugs for long-time (ageing)?
(Think in this respect about rising health costs caused by technology push in
crisis time while also ageing health demand is increasing)
• Results of the voting: Impact from reprioritising health research for an ageing
society is considered as (very) large. Plausibility of reprioritising health
research is considered as rather strong. Novelty of reprioritising health
research is considered ambiguously, however most think it is known only to
some individuals. The participants think that reprioritising health research has
quite many policy impacts. The general assessment of the strength of the
issue as new emerging is considered as neutral.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
28. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
33
Issue: Mental health in an ageing society
Advances in medicine mean that humans are living longer than ever
before. However, the quality of life of the elderly is often compromised
due to frailty, reduced mobility, dependence on medication, financial
limitations and loneliness in the twilight years. One in four older adults
lives with depression, anxiety, or other significant mental health
disorders. In many EU Member States the suicide rate among the
elderly is higher than that for any other age group.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
29. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
34
Issue: Mental health in an ageing society
• Increasing incidence of mental health problems among the elderly
could have a significant impact both in terms of demand on medical
services, as well as in a wider social context, it may very well also
affect the mental health of younger people.
• Early detection of cancer what is it good for if we cannot heal?
Drugs for long-time (ageing)?
• Results of the voting: Impact from mental health in ageing society is
considered as quite large. Plausibility is considered as (very) strong. It
is considered ambiguously, but more as not novel anymore. The
participants think that mental health in ageing society has quite some
policy impacts. The general assessment of the strength of the issue as
new emerging is considered as relatively strong.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
30. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
35
Issue: Obesity, a global epidemic marches on
It is estimated that in excess of one billion adults are overweight, and
that at least 300 million of them are clinically obese. Obesity has
reached epidemic proportions and is a major contributor to the global
burden of chronic disease and disability. Within Europe, obesity affects
20-30% of adults, and a cause of particular concern is the increase in
obesity rates among the young.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
31. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
36
Issue: Obesity, a global epidemic marches on
• Rising obesity is the result of a combination of factors – increasing
affluence leading to abundance of food, poor consumption habits due
to a hectic routine, and a sedentary lifestyle. To combat obesity we
need to recognize and address these realities.
• Need to promote healthier lifestyles. Deal with unhealthy markets.
• Results of the voting: Impact from obesity is considered rather large.
Plausibility of obesity is considered as (very) strong. It is considered as
less novel, known to most of them who should know. The participants
think that obesity has quite many policy impacts. The general
assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging is considered
as neutral.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
32. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
38
Cognitive Enhancement Issues
• Issue: Influencing and reading brains
Use of neural implants as a possible means of unconsciously
influencing thinking and emotions, commercial and military interest
(neuromarketing), recent discoveries in invasive and non-invasive
reading of brain activity helping disables & diseased with impairments.
• Issue: Influencing biological cognitive development of humans
Possible deployment of developmental drugs influencing the neuro-
cognitive embryological and later development.
• Issue: ICT-enhanced learning systems
to be almost ripe for very promising tools for learning complex and
cognitive motor tasks.
SESTI Emerging Issues 11/11/2011
33. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
ICT makes difficult tasks so easy, do we still
Search for our cognitive genes have to learn them ourselves?
Continuous genetic research on the cognitive ICT, augmented reality and robotics helps us to
genes that distinguish us from apes and other perform every task with less or even no effort.
higher mammalians lead to the escape of a After development of wiki-based and self
highly intelligent cat observed as taxi driver in learning translation programmes we can
the city of NY. A new congress committee now translate everything spoken and written through
has abandoned this kind of research (S 485 - S the internet. Learning other languages at school
444 - S 485 ) is therefore nonsense (S 418 )
TECHNOLOGY and SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY and SCIENCE