A national survey of 1000 American voters and 1000 Latino voters was conducted between October 21-November 1, 2011. The key findings were: 1) President Obama led all Republican candidates among both voters, receiving between 49-52% support from Americans and 66-68% from Latinos. 2) Republican candidates faced challenges in favorability, with Romney receiving between 34-44% favorable ratings and Perry and Cain even lower. 3) Hispanics preferred Democratic stances on key issues like immigration, health care reform, and the role of government. 4) While Americans were split on immigration attitudes, Latinos strongly supported a path to citizenship and compassionate treatment of immigrants.

1. 1

2. National survey of American electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error
National survey of Latino electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error
MOE 4.4% on split-sampled questions.
Field dates, October 21 – November 1, 2011
Telephone survey of registered voters, land lines and cell phones
Survey designed and implemented by Latino Decisions
2

3. Obama 51%
Romney 42%
Undecided 7%
Obama 49%
Cain 43%
Undecided 7%
Obama 52%
Perry 42%
Undecided 6%
3
3

4. Obama 67%
Romney 24%
Undecided 9%
Obama 65%
Cain 22%
Undecided 13%
Obama 68%
Perry 21%
Undecided 11%
4

5.
90%
80%
70%
26%
60%
50% 26%
36%
13%
40%
24%
30%
51%
12%
20% 37% 37%
30% 22%
24% 16%
10% 17%
3% 5%
0%
Obama Obama Obama Obama Congress Congress Congress Congress
Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval
48% 50% 66% 29% 19% 77% 27% 63%
National Latino National Latino
5

6.
25%
23%
National Electorate
20%
18% Latino Electorate
15%
15%
13%
12%
10%
10%
8%
6% 6%
5% 5%
5% 4%
2% 2%
0%
Romney Perry Cain Paul Bachman Gingrich Huntsman
6

7.
50%
44% 43%
45%
39% 39% 38%
40%
35% 34%
35%
28% 29%
30% Favorable
25% 26%
25% Unfavorable
19%
20% No Opinion/Never Heard
15%
10%
5%
0%
Romney Perry Cain Gingrich
7

8.
60%
55% 53%
50%
46%
43% 44%
45%
40% 37%
34%
35%
31%
30% Favorable
27%
Unfavorable
25% 23%
21% 21% No Opinion/Never Heard
20%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Romney Perry Cain Gingrich
8

9. 9

10.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Republican 40% 32% 7% 1%
Democrat 40% 33% 5% 2%
National
Other, Undecided, DK 19%
Republican 18% 13% 3% 2%
Latino
Democrat 59% 49% 8% 2%
Other, Undecided, DK 23%
10

11.
60%
54%
50% 46%
40%
30%
20% 16%
10%
9%
0%
Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care
Economy Reform Reform
Respondents
allowed
up
to
two
men/ons.
11

12.
All Voters Latinos
80% 74%
70% 65%
60%
50%
40%
30% 23% 21%
20% 16% 12%
10%
10% 5%
0%
Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care
Economy Reform Reform
12

13. Let's say one of the candidates had a plan to improve the economy that
you supported, and on the immigration issue the candidate said, quote:
[half of sample receives each quote]
– illegal immigrants are a threat to America who have committed a crime, we can never
support amnesty for illegals
– America is a nation of immigrants, we need to treat immigrants with respect and dignity
and help them assimilate into America instead of attacking them
end quote.
Would that statement make you more likely to support the candidate,
less likely to support the candidate, or would you not care what they
said about immigration if you agreed with their plan for the economy?
13

14.
All Voters Latinos
70%
60%
59%
50%
41%
40%
30% 25%
19%
20%
14% 15%
10%
0%
More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they
said
14

15.
All Voters Latinos
80% 76%
70%
60%
50% 46%
40%
30%
22%
20% 15%
10%
10% 5%
0%
More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they
said
15

16. 16

17.
Support Oppose
90% 84%
80%
70%
60%
58%
50%
40%
30%
28%
20%
11%
10%
0%
All Voters Latinos
17

18.
All Voters Latinos
80%
70% 67%
60%
58%
50%
40%
30% 25%
20% 14% 13% 14%
10%
0%
Path to Citizenship Guestworker program Deport illegal
immigrants
18

19.
Democratic Party Republican Party
60%
53%
50%
40%
39%
34%
30%
20%
15%
10%
0%
All Voters Latinos
19

20.
Legitimate Concern
80%
Using to Block Progress
68% 67% 67% 66%
70%
62% 62%
58% 58%
60%
50%
40%
31% 29%
30%
24% 22% 20%
20% 17% 17%
13%
10%
0%
All
All
Republicans
Republicans
Democrats
Democrats
Independents
Independents
National Sample
Latinos
20

21.
Favorable Unfavorable DK/No Opinion Support Oppose DK/No Opinion
45%
40%
60% 55%
38% 38%
40% 36% 50% 47%
35%
30% 40% 35%
24% 24%
25%
30%
20% 22% 23%
15% 20%
18%
10%
10%
5%
0% 0%
National Latino National Latino
21

22.
50%
47%
45%
45%
42%
National
40%
Latinos
35%
32% 33%
30%
30%
25%
20%
20% 18%
15% 13% 14%
10% 8%
5% 3%
0%
Reaching Out Don't Care Hostile Reaching Out Don't Care Hostile
Democratic Party Republican Party
22

23. 19%
Illegal in all cases
15%
Latinos
35% All voters
Only to save the
woman 28%
38%
Legal in most cases
49%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
23

24. 26%
No legal recognition Latinos
35%
All voters
13%
Civil unions
19%
43%
Legally Marry
35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
24

25. 25

26.
Bush Obama Both Neither Obama and Democrats Republicans
80% Both Neither
70%
67%
60%
57%
60%
50%
50%
50% 42% 43%
40% 33% 40%
30% 30% 24%
19%
20% 20%
7% 8% 7% 5% 10% 10%
10% 10%
2% 2%
0% 0%
National Latino National Latino
26

27. Latinos All Voters
25%
People responsible to get their own
43%
60%
Government should ensure access
42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
27

28.
All Voters Latinos
50% 47%
45%
44%
40%
39%
35%
30%
29%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Repeal 2010 Health Care Keep it as law
28

29. Latino National
42%
Tax Cuts for all
44%
50%
Tax Cuts only under $250k
48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
29

30.
Republicans Independents Democrats Republicans Independents Democrats
60% 60%
53%
49% 50%
50% 47% 50% 47%
39%
40% 40%
30% 30% 31% 29% 29%
30% 26% 25% 30% 27%
22% 20%
20% 20% 17% 15%
10% 10%
0% 0%
More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in
2012 2008 2012 2008
30

31. The Bottom Line for the American
Electorate 1-year Out
• The President leads his rivals by modest but statistically
meaningful margins;
• Moreover, the GOP candidates face signi cant hurdles in
favorability/unfavorability;
• The Enthusiasm Gap signi cantly favors Republicans;
• The President struggles nationally on support for health reform
and trust in him to x the economy;
• But the Democrats have closed the generic House vote to even,
and the public is dissatis ed with the GOP Congress.
31

32. The Bottom Line for the Hispanic
Electorate 1-year Out
• The President enjoys 2-1 margins over his likely opponents
among Latino registered voters;
• GOP candidates are neither well-known nor well-liked:
– GOP has signi cant room to improve Latino outreach;
• Hispanic policy preferences solidly Democratic as well:
– Even on social issues, Latino social conservatism is eroding
or altogether missing;
• Immigration sentiments nationally are far more favorable to
Latino positions than widely understood:
– But are often drowned out by a passionate minority.
32