The United GCC Fund is an open-ended fund incorporated in Oman that invests in companies listed in the GCC countries. In the past month, equity markets in the region saw varied performance, with Dubai and Egypt rising over 7.5% and 28% respectively while other markets fell between -2.5% to 3.5%. The fund maintains a diversified portfolio across sectors like petrochemicals, banking, retail, telecom, and cement.
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The QE Index declined 0.1% to close at 9,935.5. Losses were led by the Banks & Financial Services and Transportation indices, falling 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.
The QE Index declined 0.6% to close at 10,679.1. Losses were led by the Consumer Goods & Services and Real Estate indices, falling 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively.
The QE Index rose 0.7% to close at 10,749.1. Gains were led by the Industrials and Banks & Financial Services indices, gaining 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
Be cautious into 3Q. 1Q09 results of the six banking stocks we cover
were generally in line, with combined net profit down 2.1% QoQ and
13.1% YoY. However, the weak 1Q09 GDP suggests growing stress in
system loans over the coming months. We remain cautious on banks’
profits, especially from 3Q09. Underweight the sector.
1Q down a sharp 13.1% YoY. Other than AMMB’s positive surprise,
results were generally in-line. The combined net profit of our banking
universe was flattish QoQ but fell a sharp 13.1% YoY on lower treasury
and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. Net interest income
expanded, but the weak equity market continued to affect brokerage
income, which contracted for the 5th to 6th consecutive quarter.
Some signs of stress. Domestic loans continued growing at most
banks. QoQ loan growth at the major banks (Maybank, CIMB Bank and
Public Bank) outpaced system growth. Some loan segments, however,
have begun showing stress. Domestic NPL saw upticks in the
consumer (mortgage, autos) and working capital segments. Net NPL
ratios continued to trend down due to the expanded loans base.
Earnings to contract. There were no major revisions in our individual
earnings forecasts except for AMMB (FY09: +16%, FY10: +7%). Our
combined net profit forecast was upgraded by a marginal 0.1% for 2009
and 0.7% for 2010. We expect sector earnings to contract 9.9% in
2009, before recovering to 6.8% growth in 2010 (previously -10.1%,
+6.1% respectively). This excludes further impairment in the value of
long-term investments, merger costs and other one-offs.
Asset quality concerns. 1Q09 GDP (-6.2% YoY, -7.7% QoQ) should
be the weakest, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we
expect economic recovery to be slow, with real GDP to return to the
3Q08 high only in 4Q10. There is a 3-6 month interval from GDP trough
to NPL peak. Hence, banks are set to report weaker profits on rising
NPLs and higher credit charges from 3Q09.
Mainly Sells. Against regional peers, the larger Malaysian banks are
pricey. The current liquidity driven market has pushed valuations up but
prospects for a strong economic recovery stay hazy. Sell into strength.
The QE Index rose 0.3% to close at 10,226.7. Gains were led by the Real Estate and Banks & Financial Services indices, gaining 4.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
- The subsidy arbitrage that many companies had relied upon to generate their generous margins is gone for good and the environment will continue to be challenging, and indefinitely so.
- The case for consolidation across several sectors is overwhelming but activity remains low. Managers are in denial and holding out for miracles.
- The closing window for regional economies to reduce their dependence on oil (highlighted in the Countdown to Midnight, November 14th, 2016) has been validated by the rapidly rising forecasts for the electrification of the global passenger vehicle fleet, which accounts for over a quarter of global oil demand.
- Reform is not a magic wand and hope is not a strategy. To transform the economy from its dependency on oil and subsidies requires pain, sacrifice and perhaps a decade of disruption to the status quo.
The QE Index rose 1.7% to close at 10,105.1. Gains were led by the Consumer Goods & Services and Insurance indices, gaining 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively.
The QE Index rose marginally to close at 10,192.2. Gains were led by the Real Estate and Banks & Financial Services indices, gaining 5.9% and 0.4%, respectively.
Similar to UNITED GCC Fund Factsheet Feb 2012 (20)
1. LATEST NAV- 1.019
FUND DETAILS Fund Objective
United GCC Fund is an open ended fund incorporated in Oman. The objective of the fund is
Fund type to generate capital appreciation by actively investing in companies listed in the GCC. It will
Open ended maintain a diversified portfolio and use a flexible investment policy.
Market commentary for the month
Geographic focus
We had a good start to the year with many of the global equity markets shrugging of past
GCC
fears moved ahead. However equity markets in the region witnessed a varied performance.
Except for markets like Dubai and Egypt which moved by 7.5% and 28% respectively other
Launch date
th markets performed in the range of -2.5% to 3.5% for the month.
13 June 2011
Several major companies in the region announced their results during the month. As
Domicile
expected the petrochemicals reported lower numbers. Banking results were a mixed bag and
Oman
investors were specifically disappointed with the profitability and dividend payout of the
Qatari banks. FGB stole the show announcing a 100% dividend and 100% bonus. Retail,
Base Currency
telecom and cement sectors out performed expectations and continued to evince investor
Omani Rial
interest.
Investment Manager
While earnings continue to grow, market price remains subdued due to global and
United Securities LLC
sentimental factors. We believe the PE re-rating will soon materialize and the regional
markets will break out from this trading range. We move ahead with cautious optimism.
Administrator & Custodian
Gulf Custody Company B.S.C
Auditors
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Oman
Legal Advisors
Rajab Al-Kathiri & Associates
Minimum investment
OMR 3000
NAV Frequency
Weekly
Subscription/ Redemption
Daily
Fees Top 5 holdings %
2% Subscription Fee
3% Redemption fee for 3mths SAFCO 4.46%
0% Redemption fee after 3mths QEWS 4.38%
1% Management fee EEC 4.32%
12% Performance fee in excess of
QIBK 3.67%
10% watermark
OTEL 3.64%
Tickers
Bloomberg - UNITGCC OM Equity
Zawya - UNSUGCC.MF
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken
to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and the estimates, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, neither United Securities LLC, nor any
of its employees shall be, in any way, responsible for the contents. This shall not be construed as an offer to buy or sell the investments referred to in this report.
P.O. Box 2566, P.C. 112, Ruwi, Sultanate of Oman ∞ Tel :968 24763300 ∞ Fax: 968 24788671 ∞ Email: info@usoman.com www.usoman.com