This report by Big Valley Marketing analyzes 75 top unicorns to benchmark their visibility and momentum across news, social and search channels. This is relevant because many founders believe unicorn status provides advantages for recruiting top talent, and demonstrates a startup’s viability for customers and prospects.
The study also showcases a new Earned Media Index™ for benchmarking earned media performance – often the most impactful but least-invested, under-measured part of the marketing and communications mix.
We conclude that unicorn status and valuation alone do not dictate media performance. We also learn a lot about category performance, company success factors, IPO impact and channel dynamics. We look forward to your feedback as we continue to study this important class of startups…
2. VISIBILITY + MOMENTUM: WHO RANKS WHERE AND WHY?
Unicorns are a phenomenon. Over the past 18 months,
they have gone from mythical creature to tech meme –
spawning greed and envy for global entrepreneurs,
investors and recruiters, while feeding the tech media
engine with endless news stories, leader boards and
Fortune cover stories.
The “unicorn” concept was coined in Nov’13 by venture
capitalist Aileen Lee, and refers to privately held start-up
companies with valuations exceeding $1 billion. What
started out as a rare breed grew to 146 companies by
April 2016, according to Dow Jones VentureSource.
The chase for unicorn status has abated somewhat as
startup valuations moderate in early 2016. However, the
class continues to expand and contract almost weekly –
providing a valuable microcosm to understand today’s
tech trends and startup dynamics.
To that end, this report analyzes 75 top unicorns to
benchmark their visibility and momentum across news,
social and search channels. This is relevant because
many founders believe unicorn status provides
advantages for recruiting top talent, and demonstrates
a startup’s viability for customers and prospects.
This study also showcases a new Earned Media Index™
for benchmarking earned media performance – often
the most impactful but least-invested, under-measured
part of the marketing and communications mix.
We conclude that unicorn status and valuation alone do
not dictate media performance. We also learn a lot
about category performance, company success factors,
IPO impact and channel dynamics.
We look forward to your feedback as we continue to
study this important class of startups…
2
3. UNICORN MEDIA INDEX: TOP 75
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
EarnedMediaIndex™score
Snapchat Pinterest Spotify Dropbox Flipkart Uber
Xiaomi Snapdeal Airbnb BuzzFeed Square Github
"Credit Karma" SpaceX Lyft Jawbone Slack Garena
DJI FanDuel Pure Storage MongoDB Cloudera Instacart
Houzz Stripe Nutanix Ola Cabs Warby Parker Didi Kuaidi
Magic Leap Blue Apron DocuSign Fanatics InMobi Grabtaxi
Palantir Zenefits Delivery Hero Domo Legendary Entertainment AppNexus
WeWork Theranos Klarna One97 ZocDoc MuleSoft
The Honest Co. Tanium Adyen Dianping Powa Meituan
Coupang InsideSales.com Medallia Bloom Energy Moderna Deem
Zhong An Prosper Marketplace Social Finance Infinidat Global Fashion Group Oscar Health
Intarcia Therapeutics Lufax Lazada Group Jasper Technologies ContextLogic stemcentrx
Koudai Shopping VANCL Trendy Group/ Trendiano
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
3
4. UNICORN MEDIA INDEX: KEY FINDINGS
Snapchat tops the rankings, followed by Pinterest, Spotify and Dropbox
• Snapchat (#1 earned media, #6 valuation) was the fast mover with pronounced growth
trajectory from 41.02 to 71.22, outpacing all others after Jul’15 based on platform success
• Pinterest (#2 earned media, #10 valuation) was more constant, averaging 44 points/month
• No. 3 Spotify was much more erratic with pronounced peaks and valleys, year-end growth
• Dropbox (#4), Flipkart (#5) and Uber (#6) are the next band w/ Square (#11) spiking on IPO
Valuation influences earned media, but doesn’t dictate performance
• 11 “media megastars” indexed >10.0, while 17 other “media superstars” averaged >1.0
• Category, audience and executive profile matter a lot, as do other communication factors
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
4
5. UNICORN MEDIA INDEX: KEY FINDINGS
Consumer tech and Internet suck up oxygen from other companies
• Social media platforms and on-demand services dominated valuations and earned media
• Top B2B = GitHub (#12), SpaceX (#14), Slack (#17), Pure Storage (#21), MongoDB (#22)
• Hardware stood out with negative linear trends for four of the five companies
• Healthcare under-performs: All six companies averaged >1 point per month
• Flipkart (#5) and Xiaomi (#7) were international standouts despite limited availability
Controversy and IPO windows drive major spikes
• Theranos spiked 11X from ~0.25 to ~2.75 in Oct’15 and Nov’15 due to media firestorm
• Uber dominates valuation (#1) and news (#1), but lags in social (#3) and search (#9)
• Square spiked to #5 for Sept’15-Nov’15 based on IPO window, but trending down into 2016
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
5
6. UNICORNS ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL
MEDIA MEGASTARS
(Earned Media Index > 10.00)
Company Rank Ave. Score
Snapchat 1 49.55
Pinterest 2 44.24
Spotify 3 38.01
Dropbox 4 35.76
Flipkart 5 34.34
Uber 6 32.88
Xiaomi 7 25.63
Snapdeal 8 20.67
Airbnb 9 18.77
BuzzFeed 10 15.75
Square 11 14.47
MEDIA SUPERSTARS
(Earned Media Index > 1.00)
Company Rank Ave. Score
GitHub 12 9.46
Credit Karma 13 6.37
SpaceX 14 5.33
Lyft 15 5.22
Jawbone 16 4.49
Slack 17 4.09
Garena 18 3.12
DJI 19 2.64
FanDuel 20 2.34
Pure Storage 21 2.04
MEDIA SUPERSTARS
(Earned Media Index > 1.00)
Company Rank Ave. Score
MongoDB 22 1.89
Cloudera 23 1.72
Instacart 24 1.54
Houzz 25 1.51
Stripe 26 1.39
Nutanix 27 1.21
Ola Cabs 28 1.20
6
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
7. EARNED MEDIA INDEX VS. VALUATION
TOP 10 OVER-PERFORMERS IN EARNED MEDIA
Company
Ave. Earned
Media Index
Index
Rank
Valuation
Rank
Over/
Under
BuzzFeed 15.75 10 65 +55
FanDuel 2.34 20 70 +50
Warby Parker 0.98 29 75 +46
GitHub 9.46 12 51 +39
MongoDB 1.89 22 58 +36
AppNexus 0.62 42 73 +31
Lyft 5.22 15 41 +26
Garena 3.12 18 42 +24
Instacart 1.54 24 48 +24
Grabtaxi 0.68 36 59 +23
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
TOP 10 UNDER-PERFORMERS IN EARNED MEDIA
Company
Ave. Earned
Media Index
Index
Rank
Valuation
Rank
Over/
Under
Lufax 0.03 68 12 -56
StemcentRX 0.01 72 23 -49
Zhong An 0.10 61 16 -45
VANCL 0.01 74 30 -44
Global Fashion 0.08 65 26 -39
Meituan 0.17 54 17 -37
ContextLogic 0.01 71 35 -36
Palantir 0.67 37 4 -33
WeWork 0.61 43 11 -32
Theranos 0.57 44 13 -31
7
8. So What?
• Unicorn status and valuation influence
earned media – esp. news and social – but
they don’t dictate media performance
• Company performance varies widely across
news, social and search channels, reflecting
lack of leverage across media
• Consumer categories dominate earned
media; software steady but unspectacular;
fintech rising and hardware declining
• Companies need to cultivate category (not
just company) interest, plus vocal audience
base and executive thought leadership
• Companies should bust marketing silos,
invest more in owned and earned media,
use analytics and planning to drive leverage
• Continue to track Unicorn Media Index to
learn from the class: category dynamics,
post-IPO drop-off, “unicorn fatigue”, etc.
Now What?
INSIGHTS + RECOMMENDATIONS
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
8
18. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: TOP 10 UNICORNS
• Snapchat (#1 earned media, #6 valuation) is
the big mover with search and social growth
in late 2015, suggesting audience momentum
• Spotify is biggest out-performer (#3 earned
media, #15 valuation) including Jun’15 spike
due to Apple, Amazon, Google competition
• Uber is #1 in valuation and funding, but only
#6 in earned media – strong news and social
presence (#1 and #3) but lags in search (#9)
• Xiaomi (#7 earned media, #2 valuation) is the
only company with a negative linear trend,
fueled by sharply lower news and social
Top 10 Unicorns
0
25
50
75
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Snapchat Pinterest Spotify Dropbox
Flipkart Uber Xiaomi Snapdeal
Airbnb BuzzFeed
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
18
19. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: HARDWARE
• Hardware stood out with negative linear
trends for four of the five companies
• Chinese mobile phone maker Xiaomi (#7
earned media, #2 valuation) lost ground from
early high point spiked by Apple market battle
• Jawbone (#16 earned media, #70 valuation)
showed steady declines from 5+ to <3
• Drone maker DJI (#19 earned media) was
strong through Q3 2015, but lost ground
after “drone for beginners” launch Aug’15
• Magic Leap (#31 earned media) spiked on
Mar’15 (demo) and Oct’15 (funding) news
• Only storage provider Infinidat (#64) bucked
trend with but steadily increasing visibility
Hardware Unicorns
0
10
20
30
40
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Xiaomi Jawbone DJI
Magic Leap Infinidat
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
19
20. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: CONSUMER INTERNET
• Social media platforms (Snapchat, Pinterest,
Spotify, Houzz) and on-demand services
(Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Instacart) dominated both
valuations and earned media through 2015
• Uber’s valuation and visibility (#6 earned
media) drove impressive category pull-
through for Lyft (#15), Ola (#28), Didi Kuaidi
(#30) and Grabtaxi (#36)
• Airbnb (#9) showed steady growth from ~13
to ~20, fueled largely via search and social
• Spotify (#3) also showed solid upward trend
from ~30 to ~40, fueled by social and search
• Most companies in this group posted upward
linear trends – will they drop in 2016?
Consumer Internet Unicorns
0
25
50
75
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Snapchat Pinterest Spotify
Uber Airbnb Lyft
FanDuel Instacart Houzz
Ola Cabs Didi Kuaidi Grabtaxi
Delivery Hero Dianping
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
20
21. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: SOFTWARE
• This was the largest group, with 19 brands
• Only two – Dropbox (#4) and GitHub (#12) –
indexed above 5. Five more indexed above 1:
Slack (#17), Pure Storage (#21) , MongoDB
(#22), CloudEra (#23) and Nutanix (#27)
• Dropbox showed slight negative linear trend,
while GitHub and Slack showed steady gains
• In middle tier, Pure Storage had exponential
visibility gains around sub-par IPO in Oct’15,
while open source players MongoDB and
Cloudera trended downward over 2015
• Among the others, Nutanix (#30), AppNexus
(#45) and Tanium (#54) benefited from strong
funding and product news spikes
Software Unicorns
0
10
20
30
40
50
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Dropbox Github Slack
Pure Storage MongoDB Cloudera
Nutanix DocuSign InMobi
Palantir Zenefits Domo
AppNexus MuleSoft Tanium
InsideSales.com Medallia Deem
Jasper Tech
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
21
22. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: E-COMMERCE
• Second largest group with 16 brands
• Only two – Flipkart (#5) and Snapdeal (#9) –
indexed above 5; all others averaged >1
• Didi Kuaidi trended upward throughout the
year, fueled by on-demand transportation
growth in China and media interest in Uber
competition and valuation news
• Among others, Warby Parker (#29, avg=0.98),
Blue Apron (#32, avg=.89), and Fanatics (#34,
avg= 0.83) were among the rising stars
• Jessica Alba’s The Honest Co (#49) showed an
average of just 0.27 points per month
E-Commerce Unicorns
0
10
20
30
40
50
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Flipkart Snapdeal
Warby Parker Didi Kuaidi
Blue Apron Fanatics
The Honest Co. Meituan
Coupang Deem
Global Fashion Group Lazada Group
ContextLogic Koudai Shopping
VANCL Trendy Group/ Trendiano
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
22
23. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: FINANCIAL SERVICES
• Only three players posted average media
index scores above 1.0: Square (14.47); Credit
Karma (6.37) and Stripe (1.39)
• Square had huge jump in visibility leading up
to Nov’15 IPO; IPO price was lower than last
private valuation ($6B); can it sustain in 2016?
• Credit Karma (#13) was relatively stable
through Aug’15, dipped in Sept’15-Nov’15 and
rebounded in Dec’15
• Fintech gained momentum through 2015,
fueling late surge for 8 of 11 players – Credit
Karma, Klarna, One97, Adyen, Powa, Prosper
Marketplace, Social Finance and Lufax
Financial Services Unicorns
0
10
20
30
40
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Square Credit Karma
Stripe Klarna
One97 Adyen
Powa Zhong An
Prosper Marketplace Social Finance
Lufax
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
23
24. CATEGORY ANALYSIS: HEALTHCARE
• Healthcare had weakest media performance;
all six companies indexed <1 per month
• Theranos (#44) spiked in Oct’ 15 and Nov’15
due to media firestorm fueled by WSJ and
FDA reports questioning technology accuracy,
business governance and partner progress
• ZocDoc (#47) surged Aug’15 on new funding
round that resulted in unicorn status
• Oscar Health (#66) showed reactionary profile
without sustained earned media base; spikes
tied to funding news and industry stories
• Intarcia (#67) and StemcentRX (#72) spiked
around funding and valuation news
Healthcare Unicorns
0.0
0.5
1.0
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Theranos ZocDoc Moderna
Oscar Health Intarcia StemcentRX
3.0
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
24
25. COMPANY ANALYSIS: SNAPCHAT
• #1 Earned Media Index (49.55)
• #6 in valuation ($16.0B) with $1.3B in
total funding
• Led Unicorn Media Index by an average
5-point margin over #2 Pinterest
• Most visible growth in search volume; up
significantly in second half of year
• Social volumes spike in July (locks out
“jailbreakers;”) September (Burberry
debuts London’s Fashion Week)
• News was comparably steady (new
initiatives, partnerships)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Averagechannelscores News Search Social
0
25
50
75
100
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
25
26. COMPANY ANALYSIS: AIRBNB
• #9 Earned Media Index (18.77)
• #3 in valuation ($25.5B) with $2.3B in
total funding
• Airbnb showed steady growth from ~13
to ~20, fueled largely via search and
social
• Strong seasonal growth during summer
and holiday months – with 13.6M
average monthly searches Jun’15-Aug’15
• News and social trended up in summer,
leveled in fall but grew again Nov’15 on
funding news and “voting cartel” plans 0
10
20
30
40
50
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Averagechannelscores News Search Social
0
5
10
15
20
25
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
26
27. COMPANY ANALYSIS: GITHUB
• #12 Earned Media Index (9.46)
• #57 in valuation ($2.0B) with $350M in
total funding
• GitHub was highest-scoring B2B player,
powered by active and vocal developer
audience
• News and search trends tracked more
closely together than for consumer
brands – 739 stories + 85K social posts +
1.2M searches per month
• News spiked March as GitHub was hit by
its biggest DDoS attack ever; Oct’15 on
Google AMP project
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Averagechannelscores News Search Social
0
4
8
12
J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
D-15
Source: Big Valley analysis of monthly News, Social and Search volumes, indexed to 100 based on highest Jan’15 channel scores, then
aggregated into a composite Earned Media Index. Data from IT Database, Sysomos and Google AdWords.
27
30. EARNED MEDIA INDEX™
Key Questions
• How do brands (or other entities) perform across
earned media relative to peers and competitors?
• How does performance correlate across news, social
and search channels?
• What can brands learn from other brands to improve
their earned media performance?
Goals
• Benchmark earned media performance for my brand,
product or idea, over time and against other entities
• Understand which channel types best drive earned
media impact for my brand and category
• Plan future communication strategies, campaigns and
channel mix to optimize performance
Approach
• Analyze earned media visibility and trajectory across
channels, including relevant data for news, social and
search. Capture channel data monthly and aggregate
it into a composite index for easy comparison over
time and against others.
- News: Keyword search for number of news citations for
the entity in IT Database, a well-curated online database
of technology, business and vertical news outlets.
- Social: Keyword search for number of social citations for
the entity name or handle using Sysomos, a broad social
media aggregator that captures social content (Twitter,
Facebook, LinkedIn, blogs, forums, videos and images).
- Search: Average monthly searches for the entity name via
search engines as tracked via Google AdWords, reflecting
organic brand search behavior by month.
30
31. METHODOLOGY NOTES
• This study applies the Earned Media Index to analyze
earned media performance, visibility patterns and
channel dynamics for a distinct class of companies.
• Big Valley analysts conducted this analysis between
Dec’15 and Feb’16, capturing data for each company
across news, social and search channels.
• The full study captures monthly channel data for each
company from Jan’15 through Dec’15. Each brand’s
channel score is indexed to 100, based on the leader
for that channel as of Jan’15. The channel scores are
then aggregated into a composite Earned Media
Index score.
• Because the unicorn list is constantly evolving, we
focused our data gathering on the top 75 companies
based on Nov’15 valuations tracked by Dow Jones
VentureSource. When a company goes public, it is
removed after a three-month period (though we
continue to track it separately to evaluate post-IPO
effects on earned media performance).
• Financial valuations and industry classifications were
leveraged from Dow Jones VentureSource. Valuation
levels and rankings are based on Mar’16 data.
31
32. THANK YOU
Tim Marklein – tim@bigvalley.co
Inga Starrett – inga@bigvalley.co
www.bigvalley.co