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Uk gilt holdings and qe - money for nothing gilts for freeJohn Ashcroft
Since QE began in early 2009, UK gilts in issue have increased from £600 billion to £1.6 trillion. Bank of England holdings have increased from zero to £400 billion accounting for 25% of all gilts in issue. BoE holdings peaked at almost 30% of total holdings in 2012. Overseas holdings of gilts, have doubled from £200 billion to £400 billion. In the most recent period, overseas holdings have fallen to 25% of all gilts in issue, compared to an historical average of 30%. UK institutional holdings of gilts have increased from £400 billion to £800 billion accounting for 50% of all gilts in issue. Holdings of gilts by pension funds and insurance funds have increased from just over £200 billion to almost £500 billion. As a share of total gilts in issue, pension fund and insurance company holdings have been steady at around 28% over the six year period. Other UK financial institutions have seen a fluctuation in holdings with some suggestion of “front running” i.e. buying gilts ahead of the Bank of England purchase programme to benefit from rising prices. in the initial stages. In fact, all major stakeholders in gilts have increased holdings over the five year period. This raises an interesting question about from whom has the Bank of England bought gilts as part of the QE process? Only in the very early stages of QE is there evidence of purchased from the private sector (note 7). In reality it would appear the Bank of England purchases gilts from the Debt Management Office and not from financial institutions. Asset values are guaranteed by Treasury. JKA
Dividends, yields and coupons are also returned to Treasury, which effectively enables the government to finance borrowing with a Dire Straits underpin “Money for nothing - Gilts for Free.”
On Wednesday 23 November, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, will deliver the first Autumn Statement since the Brexit vote. He will set out the Government's taxation and spending plans based on the economic projections provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Uk gilt holdings and qe - money for nothing gilts for freeJohn Ashcroft
Since QE began in early 2009, UK gilts in issue have increased from £600 billion to £1.6 trillion. Bank of England holdings have increased from zero to £400 billion accounting for 25% of all gilts in issue. BoE holdings peaked at almost 30% of total holdings in 2012. Overseas holdings of gilts, have doubled from £200 billion to £400 billion. In the most recent period, overseas holdings have fallen to 25% of all gilts in issue, compared to an historical average of 30%. UK institutional holdings of gilts have increased from £400 billion to £800 billion accounting for 50% of all gilts in issue. Holdings of gilts by pension funds and insurance funds have increased from just over £200 billion to almost £500 billion. As a share of total gilts in issue, pension fund and insurance company holdings have been steady at around 28% over the six year period. Other UK financial institutions have seen a fluctuation in holdings with some suggestion of “front running” i.e. buying gilts ahead of the Bank of England purchase programme to benefit from rising prices. in the initial stages. In fact, all major stakeholders in gilts have increased holdings over the five year period. This raises an interesting question about from whom has the Bank of England bought gilts as part of the QE process? Only in the very early stages of QE is there evidence of purchased from the private sector (note 7). In reality it would appear the Bank of England purchases gilts from the Debt Management Office and not from financial institutions. Asset values are guaranteed by Treasury. JKA
Dividends, yields and coupons are also returned to Treasury, which effectively enables the government to finance borrowing with a Dire Straits underpin “Money for nothing - Gilts for Free.”
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Uk balance of payments 1955 - message to overseas investors - things going well send more monet
1. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955 …
… things going well, send more money.
2. -8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
BOP:Balance:SA:Total Trade in Goods BOKI *Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
Chart 1 Balance % of GDP* - Total Trade in Goods
3. -1.0%
-0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Chart 2 Balance % of GDP* - Total Trade in Services
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
Balance of Payments: Trade in Services: Total balance:IKBD
*Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
4. -5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Chart 3 Balance % of GDP* - Total Trade in Goods & Services
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
Balance of Payments: Trade in Goods & Services: Total balance:IKBJ
*Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
5. -2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Chart 4 Balance % of GDP* - Investment Income Balance
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
BoP Investment Income Balance HBOJ
*Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
6. -2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Chart 5 Balance % of GDP* - Current Account Transfers
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
Current Transfers (BPM5) total balance IKBP
*Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
7. -5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Chart 6 Balance % of GDP* - Current Account Balance
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
BoP Current Account Balance [HBON - HBOO] *Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
8. -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Chart 7 Balance % of GDP* - Capital Account
The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
*Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: YBHA
BoP FA total Net flows HBNT
9. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-120,000
-90,000
-60,000
-30,000
0
30,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
BOP:Balance:SA:Total Trade in Goods BOKI
Chart 8 Balance Total Trade in Goods £ millions
10. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 9 Balance Total Trade in Services £ millions
Balance of Payments: Trade in Services: Total balance:IKBD
11. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 10 Balance Total Trade in Goods & Services £ millions
Balance of Payments: Trade in Goods & Services: Total balance:IKBJ
12. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 11 Investment Income Balance £ millions
BoP Investment Income Balance HBOJ
13. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 12 Current Transfers £ millions
Current Transfers (BPM5) total balance IKBP
14. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-80,000
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 13 Current Account Balance £ millions
BoP Current Account Balance [HBON - HBOO]
15. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Chart 14 Capital Account Balance £ millions
BoP FA total Net flows NSA _m HBNT
16. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
Chart 15 Who owns UK Equities?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2008 2012
Overseas UK Institutions Individuals Misc
Data from “Ownership of UK Quoted Shares 2012”
ONS September 2013
UK Institutions Insurance & Pension Funds
Unit Trusts, Investment Trusts
Other Institutions
Misc : Charities, Banks & NFIS
Charities & Public Sector
%
17. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955
“Things going well!
Send more money”
Chart 16 Who owns UK Gilts?
10%
20%
30%
40%
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
Overseas
Data from “Ownership of UK Quoted Shares 2012”
Debt Management Office Q3 2013
19. The Saturday Economistwith Professor Milton Keynes ...........
The Saturday Economist .com
UK Balance of Payments from 1955 …
… things going well, send more money.