Tsi the role of indices june 2016

HEDGING & PRICE RISK
MANAGEMENT WORKSHOP
www.thesteelindex.com
The Role of Price Indices
Vaseem Karbhari
TSI Regional Head, EMEA
Barcelona
June 29, 2016

DISCLAIMER
All INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT IS AGREED TO BE CONFIDENTIAL AND CANNOT
BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT THE EXPRESSED PERMISSION OF THE STEEL INDEX
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financial situation or particular needs of any person. Investors should seek advice from a financial adviser before investing in any investment products or adopting any
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suitable for him/her. The investment product(s) discussed herein are subject to significant investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Past performance of investment products is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Unless expressly stated, we do not make any representations nor give any warranties in respect of the information contained in this presentation. To the extent
permitted by the applicable law, we hereby exclude all warranties, conditions, representations or duties whatsoever and howsoever arising (whether express or implied)
including but not limited to any representations or warranties as to the ownership of intellectual property or other rights in the presentation, or the satisfactory quality,
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the inaccuracy of the information in this report.
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Agenda
- Introduction
- Methodology: How an Index is Compiled
- The Role of Price Indices and How They Are Used
- Physical Market Price Discovery
- Index-Linked Pricing
- Settlement of Financial Contracts
- Ferrous Financial Contracts Available

TSI is a specialist price information service
• Impartial organisation focused on compiling prices for ferrous metal products
• Founded in in 2006 as subsidiary of the Steel Business Briefing (SBB) Group, acquired by
Platts in July 2011
• Continues to operate under TSI brand as a separate unit within Platts, part of S&P Global
• Data-driven methodology using transaction data to calculate volume-weighted price
indices
• TSI “Data Providers” submit spot transaction data to TSI under confidentiality agreement;
physical market participants only (over 650 registered today)
• Submission direct to TSI database through secure on-line channel
• Data normalised and “cleaned”, minimising opportunities for manipulation/data bias
• Volume-weighted averages calculated for the day or week based on actual spot market
transaction data
The Steel Index (TSI)

The Steel Index (TSI)
TSI pioneered a methodology which uses actual
spot transaction data to produce price indexes
for use by the ferrous market
European HRC and plate steel indices
referenced in supply contracts. ASEAN steel
benchmark referenced in floating priced deals
62% iron ore index is used by numerous
exchanges to settle the overwhelming majority
of all global iron ore derivatives trade
Scrap indices are used as the basis of
settlement for futures and swaps contracts on
LME, LCH.Clearnet, CME Group and Borsa
Istanbul
Our FOB Australia Premium coking coal price is
entered into the majority of all index-linked
supply contracts between producers and
customers
Iron Ore
Scrap
Steel Coking
Coal

Key Principles
To maximise industry participation and the accuracy of data submitted
To minimise opportunities for manipulation or subjectivity in the compilation of
each index
To apply a consistent approach: TSI uses the same approach for compiling all its
iron ore, steel, scrap and coking coal reference prices worldwide:
• legal agreements with relevant Data Providers active in the physical market
• secure confidential on-line data collection of actual transactions
• prices normalised to reference product specifications
• data ‘cleaned’ with outliers excluded
• volume-weighted averages calculated and published

Methodology
TSI “Data Providers” submit spot
transaction data to TSI under
confidentiality agreement
Physical market participants only (over
650 registered)
Representatives from all relevant points of
the supply chain, buy and sell sides
Submission direct to TSI database
through secure on-line channel
Data normalised and “cleaned” before
volume-weighted averages calculated for
the day or week
Legal
Agreement
Submits price data
through a secure
online system
Transaction
data sample
Prices
normalised1
Outliers &
high/low
excluded
2 Buy/Sell
balance3
Volume–weighted
averages calculated4 Final
data set
TSI Prices Published

Methodology
Trades normalising to MORE and LESS than one standard
deviation from the mean are excluded. So too are the unique
lowest and highest prices
Data set included in
index calculation
proceeds to volume-
weighting stage.
Data submissions exhibiting inexplicable
trends or inconsistencies are also
excluded
- - LP
+ +
+ 1 Standard
Deviation
Data Submissions
HP
- 1 Standard
Deviation

Introduction
• Companies are exposed to a range of ‘economic’ risks over
which they have no direct control
– interest rates, foreign exchange, commodity prices, ...
• Companies are rewarded for reducing their exposure to these
types of risk
– valuations
– improved access to capital / lower cost of capital
• Well-established financial tools (futures contracts and
derivatives) have existed for many years to manage most of
these risks, but until recently not to manage steel, ferrous
scrap, iron ore or coking coal price exposure

Price Volatility
Northern Europe Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Ex-works (€/tonne)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Steel prices have become increasingly volatile and difficult to predict
?
Regular Cycle Irregular, Volatile Movements
Source: TSI

Price Volatility
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Turkish Scrap Imports - HMS #1&2 (80:20) CFR Iskenderun port (US$/tonne)
?
Benchmark ferrous scrap prices have also become more volatile as
price sensitivity to Chinese-origin billet heightens
Source: TSI

Managing Price Risk – The Challenges!
• Price volatility and future price uncertainty is detrimental to all
companies participating in the supply chain in many ways:
– commercial negotiations
– supplier/customer relationships
– investment and project planning
– production planning
– raising finance, cost of capital
• Steel industry consolidation and upstream integration will not
remove price volatility or uncertainty (in the foreseeable future)

Managing Price Risk – Historical Approaches
• Historically companies have looked to manage steel price risk
in various ways:
− entering into long-term fixed price contracts
− breaking long-term fixed price contracts
− integrating upstream and downstream
− branding products
− adjusting inventories
− scheduling production downtime/maintenance
• Many companies are finding that these strategies/tactics
are not sufficient to meet the challenges of today’s pricing
environment and are looking to new approaches

Managing Price Risk - Developments
• Availability of spot price indices for steel, iron ore and scrap
– produced with robust, verifiable methodologies
– timely, reliable
– reflect transactions from all participants in supply chain
• Collapse of iron ore fixed price mechanism
– 40 year-old system
– annual contract price
• Adoption of index-linked price contracts
• Emergence of financial tools
– OTC swaps, options and futures
– iron ore, ferrous scrap, long products and flat products

Role of Price Indices: Price Discovery
• The role of a spot price index is to provide:
− clarity and confidence in spot market prices
− a firm foundation for index-linked floating price
arrangements for physical trades
− the settlement prices for Over-the-Counter (OTC)
financially-settled contracts and futures, trusted by the
physical market and financial community, providing the
industry with effective price risk management tools

Role of Price Indices
• Index providers (price reporting agencies) are objective observers of the market,
responding to the rising need for a clear, accountable and transparent approach to
price discovery
• The quality of an index depends on the strength of its methodology and the quantity of
data it receives
An Index Providers Responsibilities…
Implement a robust, transparent and
consistent methodology
Encourage market participants to
submit accurate, timely data
consistently
Put in place checks and balances
Be impartial and objective
Publish indices that are representative
of the spot market
An Index Provider Cannot…
Control the size of the underlying spot
market
Compel companies to contribute their
transaction information
Compel any company to use their index
to benchmark contracts

Role of Price Indices
 Price indices are now
widely used in both the
physical and financial
markets
 Trades in the physical
market feed into price
indices
 Indices are used as the
basis for physical
contracts and to settle
futures and derivatives.
Using the same index for
both eliminates basis risk.
TSI
Physical
spot trades
Settlement
of futures
and
derivatives
Index-linked
pricing in
physical
contracts

Role of Price Indices: Index-Linked Pricing
• Index-linked pricing arrangements typically involve:
− agreeing long-term supply volumes
− agreeing basis product prices will be determined by a
published spot price index for a given reference product
− agreeing premium/discounts for the specific material to be
supplied, compared to the ‘basis’ reference product
• Iron ore contract supply agreements since April 2010 have
moved almost entirely to index-linked price arrangements, not
only in China but around the world
• Steel contracts are following this trend. The US has led the way
in the use of steel index-linked pricing, but this is becoming
increasingly widely adopted in Europe and Asia.

Role of Price Indices : Index-Linked Pricing
• Index-linked pricing arrangements can be structured in a variety of
different ways to fit the purposes of buyers and sellers
• Different approaches for the index basis:
− ‘direct’ index, e.g. HRC for HRC (single or a basket of indices)
− ‘indirect’ index, e.g. scrap for billet (single or basket of indices)
− combination of ‘direct and indirect’ indices
− etc.
• Different approaches for time periods:
− index average over a quarter (preceding or current, or lagged by
a month)
− index average over a month (preceding or current)
− index average over preceding rolling 15 days, or 5 days, etc.

Index-Linked Pricing: Quarterly Example
TSI 62% Fe Fines Price – CFR Tianjin port (US$/dry metric tonne)
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
TSI daily spot
reference price
TSI average
Q-1M price
Source: TSI

50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q1-1M average price
applied as basis for Q2
contract pricing
TSI daily spot
reference price
TSI average
Q-1M price
Source: TSI

50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q2-1M average price
contract pricing
Q1-1M average price
contract pricing
TSI daily spot
reference price
TSI average
Q-1M price
Source: TSI

50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q2-1M average price
contract pricing
Q1-1M average price
contract pricing
TSI daily spot
reference price
TSI average
Q-1M price
and so on…
Source: TSI

50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Basis for Q-1M
contract pricing
TSI daily spot
reference price
TSI average
Q-1M price
Source: TSI

0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Average Lagged
Quarter index price
(lagged Q-1M)
Average Current
Quarter index price
(adopted Oct 2011)TSI daily spot
reference price
Source: TSI

Index-Linked Pricing: Monthly Example
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
TSI daily spot
reference price
Average monthly index
price (current month)
Source: TSI

Indexing and Hedging – Direct Indexing
Trading firms view logistics, storage and other transformations as their core businesses, and so do not
have an advantage in bearing price risk
Secondary benefits therefore arise from price indexing – as having secured a price acceptable to both
parties, focus can shift to other areas of the customer-client relationship
Price
Quality
JIT delivery
Credit Lines
Single Invoicing Point
Consistency of Material
Spot
Trade
Service
Quality
JIT delivery
Credit Lines
Single Invoicing Point
Consistency of Material
Indexed
Trade

Index Linked Pricing: Users
Physical market users include steel mills, miners, scrap yards, traders, distributors,
service centres, steel processors and steel consumers
Physical market players use TSI prices in a variety of ways, including:
- for reference in price negotiations
- to track performance against the market
- for benchmarking
- as escalators and in clauses within supply/purchase contracts, triggering a
price adjustment or renegotiation if the index moves by more than a defined
amount
- to identify opportunities to take trading positions
- in index-linked pricing arrangements
- for hedging physical price exposure (locking in future revenues, costs or
margins)
- for speculation (traders)
Financial market users include brokers, banks and exchanges

Index-Linked Pricing: Benefits & Implications
• Removes need for protracted negotiations to agree annual
fixed price each year
− difficult when market prices are volatile and unpredictable
− price indexing can be equable to both sides
• Enhances supplier/customer relationships
− focuses commercial discussions on specific premiums for value-
added products or services, not where the price cycle will be in the
future
− removes feeling of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ as spot market prices
move during the period of supply (a key cause of tension between
suppliers and customers)
• But leaves both sides exposed to floating price market
volatility

Financial Price Risk Management Tools
• Is there a way to smooth the impact of the ‘floating price’ volatility?
Yes!
• Use financial price risk management tools
(swaps, futures, etc.) in parallel with the
index-linked physical pricing
arrangements
• This is known as ‘hedging’
• Using the same index for both the
physical index-linked price and for the
financial hedging contract enables clients
to mitigate any basis price risk

The emergence of financial tools (swaps, futures, etc.) offers companies the
opportunity to hedge iron ore, steel, scrap and coking coal price risk
There are 3 key types of financial tools emerging to manage steel, scrap and iron
ore price risk:
− Over-The-Counter (OTC) swaps and other forward contracts
• Bilateral agreements, using brokers (carry counterparty credit risk)
− Cleared OTC swaps, options, etc.
• Bilateral swaps, using brokers, financially cleared through a
clearing house (mitigating bilateral counterparty credit risk)
− Futures contracts
• Traded transparently on exchange and cleared through a clearing
house (mitigating bilateral counterparty credit risk)

Swaps, options and futures contracts can either be financially-settled or offer a
delivery option
Financially-settled (“cash-settled”) contracts will mature (close out) when the
contract date is reached (if not closed out before then)
Contracts with a delivery (and sometimes warehouse) option do not have to be
closed out
− by not closing out a position, buyers can choose to take delivery of the
standard physical product at the settlement price (and sellers can choose
to make delivery of the standard physical product) if they do not wish to
close out their position before then
− typically an option of last resort (<1% of trades)

Financial Contracts: Settlement
Financially-settled contracts require robust independent price indices (such as
The Steel Index) to determine the settlement prices
− it is essential that they accurately reflect physical market transactions
(otherwise there is a risk for users of the futures contract that the hedge is
ineffective) and are not open to manipulation
For contracts with a delivery option, the settlement prices are ‘discovered’ in the
financial trading process
− the delivery option ensures price convergence

Indexing and Hedging – Dispelling the Myths!
Indexing does not commoditize products as it allows for preferences to be built
into the index price.
If material produced is considered a value-added product then it can be sold at a
premium fixed value or a percentage to the index value.
Discounts or premiums can be built in to the index price for credit lines, or any
number of commercial terms buyers or sellers value.
Using futures/derivatives contracts as a price risk management tool is not
speculative measure!
On the contrary, it carries a myriad of benefits to users throughout the steel
supply chain. It allows for forward planning, fixed price certainty and (certainty)
of cash flows as well as an efficient allocation of capital resources.

Financial Tools Available: Steel (Europe & US)
Steel: European HRC
‒ N. Europe: OTC swaps, clearing on LCH.Clearnet, basis TSI
‒ N. Europe: OTC swap-futures, clearing on CME Group, basis TSI and Platts
‒ S. Europe: OTC swaps, clearing on LCH.Clearnet, basis TSI
Steel: US HRC
‒ US Midwest, OTC swap-futures and options,
clearing on CME Group, basis CRU
Steel: Billet
‒ Global billet: LME futures
‒ Black Sea billet, OTC swap-futures, clearing
on CME Group, basis Platts
Steel: Turkish Rebar
‒ Turkish Rebar Exports: LME Futures*, basis
Platts

Financial Tools Available: Steel (Asia)
Steel: ASEAN HRC imports (US$-based)
‒ OTC swaps and futures, clearing on the Singapore
Exchange (SGX), basis TSI
Steel: Chinese Rebar
‒ Shanghai Futures Exchange (RMB-based)
‒ OTC swaps, clearing on LCH.Clearnet (London), basis
Cleartrade/Umetal
Steel: Chinese HRC
‒ OTC swaps, clearing on LCH.Clearnet (London), basis
Cleartrade/Umetal

Financial Tools Available: Scrap & Met Coal
Turkish Scrap (US$-based)*
‒ Futures, clearing on LME, Borsa Istanbul, basis TSI
‒ OTC swaps, clearing on the LCH.Clearnet and CME Europe, basis TSI
‒ Swap-futures, clearing on CME, basis Platts
US Domestic Scrap (US$-based)
‒ US Midwest, swap-futures and options, clearing on CME, basis AMM
‒ US Midwest scrap futures, clearing on Nasdaq, basis TSI
Coking Coal (US$-based)
‒ Premium Hard Coking Coal, FOB Australia & CFR China OTC swaps and futures,
clearing on Singapore Exchange, basis TSI
‒ Premium Low Vol Coking Coal, FOB Australia, swap-futures, clearing on CME Group,
basis Platts
Coking Coal (China): Futures
‒ Dalian Commodities Exchange (RMB-based)

Financial Tools Available: Iron Ore
Iron Ore: cleared OTC swaps, options and futures (US$-based)
‒ Singapore Exchange (SGX AsiaClear)
‒ LCH.Clearnet (London)
‒ CME Group (Chicago)
‒ Nasdaq OMX (formerly NOS Clearing) (New York)
‒ Intercontinental Exchange (ICE Clear Europe)
‒ Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX)
Iron Ore (China): Futures
‒ Dalian Commodities Exchange (RMB-based)

Futures & Derivatives Volumes: Iron Ore
Over 3 billion tonnes cleared
cumulatively since launch (2009)
across all exchanges and clearing
houses
Over 99% of total cleared volume
basis TSI’s 62% Fe Fines
benchmark
2015 volumes reached 1.17 billion
tonnes; 2016 YTD: 875 million
tonnes
Open interest at an all-time high -
approximately 240 million tonnes
Trading activity overwhelmingly
concentrated on SGX, tonnes also
cleared on CME.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Options
Futures
Swaps
SGX Open Interest (RHS)**
* Total volume cleared by SGX, CME Group, LCH.Clearnet, NASDAQ OMX and ICE; Open interest for SGX only ** End of month
Iron Ore Futures and OTC Derivatives Contracts - Volume Cleared and
Open Interest* (million tonnes)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Millions
Futures
Options
Swaps
Iron Ore Futures and Derivatives Contracts - Cumulative Volume Cleared
(million tonnes)*
* SGX, CME Group, LCH.Clearnet, NOS Clearing and ICE Source: TSI

Futures & Derivatives Volumes: LME Scrap
LME Turkish Scrap Futures
Cleared Volumes (metric tonnes)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16
Launched November 2015 alongside LME’s
Steel Rebar contract (basis Platts)
Cash-settled futures contract with a 12-
month forward curve and a lot size of 10
tonnes
Over 50,000 tonnes (5,000 lots) traded
since launch
First voice-brokered trade executed in May
by INTL FCStone Ltd on behalf of Stemcor –
indicating contracts are being accepted as
risk management tools for the steel
industry
“Based on the development so far, Stemcor feel these launches have been the most successful in
the commodities space since iron ore swaps.”
Phillip Price, Head of Market Risk Management and Derivatives Trading at Stemcor

Senior Leadership Team
Oscar Tarneberg
Shanghai
Regional Head, APAC
Office: +86-139-1788-4804
Email: o.tarneberg@spglobal.com
Kurt Fowler
Pittsburgh
Regional Head, Americas
Office: +1-412-431-0584
Email: k.fowler@spglobal.com
Tim Hard
Singapore
TSI Managing Director
Office: +65-6530-6413
Email: hard@spglobal.com
Vaseem Karbhari
London
Regional Head, EMEA
Office: +44-20-7176-7657
Email: v.karbhari@spglobal.com

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