Quick look-back at the key price movements in ferrous markets during October 2017

1. Argus Steel Feedstocks:
October market roundup
Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Metals
illuminating the markets
Summary
• China implemented steep production
cuts in steelmaking regions to tackle
over production and pollution.
• Seaborne and portside iron ore prices
slumped, with the 62% flagship prices
(ICX & PCX) each down by 12-13%
compared with September.
• Higher Fe fines continued to perform
better, while lower grades slipped at a
faster rate in the seaborne market. The
discount for lower Fe SSF fines at ports
stabilised.
• Port prices lost some of their premium
over seaborne material on a like-for-
like comparison, averaging 76 cents/t
compared with more than $2/t in
September. By the 31st, they had
slipped to 15c.
• Nevertheless, mill margins expanded
for a 6th consecutive month, hitting the
highest level Argus has ever recorded.
• Argus published 48 iron ore trades in
October and 393 bids and offers. Daily
summaries available via the Argus Iron
Ore Bulletin, monthly spreadsheets via
Argus Direct.
Analysis
• Macro: October is always an unusual
month, due to the week-long National
Day/Golden Week holiday that sees
China absent for the first part of the
month, along with low economic activity
in general. This year, October also saw
China hold its party congress. Priorities
for the government include reducing
pollution and reducing reliance on debt
to finance growth; both of which could
have longer-term impacts for metals
demand. Indeed, sweeping pollution
control measures announced last
month also hit steelmakers with large
production cuts of as much as 50%.
Manufacturing activity held up, as did
conditions in the steel sector, with
PMI surveys for October all in positive
territory (>50), albeit at softer levels
than September (see news highlights
on next page).
• Seaborne Ore: While reduced steel
production necessitates a reduction
in raw material inputs, a look at the
data suggests the cut to steel supply
appears so far to have propped up the
“per-tonne” profits of steel mills and
supported their purchase of higher
quality ores, reflected in relatively
healthy prices for mainstream products
(see table). Lower-grade material
has come under consistent pressure;
October Average M-o-M (%)
61.96
62.71
47.34
84.19
28.93
477.52
+23.33
-4.00
-9.24
-199.48
0.76
309.66
517.77
Argus Settlement Prices
Seaborne (US$/dmt)
ICX 62% Fe ,CFR Qingdao
PCX 62% seaborne equivalent
58% Fe Fines, CFR Qingdao
65% Fe Fines, CFR Qingdao
Lump Premium (US$/dmtu)
Portside (CNY/WMT)
PCX 62% , FOT Shandong
Brand Diff. NHGF
Brand Diff. PBF
Brand Diff. BRBF
Brand Diff. SSF
Indicators (US$/t)
China Rebar Exports FOB Zhangjiagang
China HRC Exports, FOB Tianjin
PCX/ICX - Portside Premium (US$/dmt)
Implied Mill Margin, China Rebar*
558.65
-12.24%
-14%
-15.02%
-10.61%
-23.30%
-13%
-20%
-11%
13%
-13%
-4.57%
-4.00%
-71.4%
0.55%
the value of 58% Fe material as a
proportion of 62% hit a 1,125 session
low in August: 75.48%. In the 2013 and
2015 it was around 90% of the value of
62% grade.
• Portside Ore: The Argus port price
differentials for SSF (currently the
only lower-Fe material tracked) at port
stabilised. (Notably, FMG has widened
its discounts for its 58.3pc Fe Fortescue
Blend product, but left discounts for
SSF unchanged). The discount for BRBF
vs. the PCX index fell alongside other
brands in a generally softer market,
but at a slower rate than the headline
index: BRBF has been performing better
than other grades (see table above).

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News Highlights
• Australian iron ore producer Fortescue
will widen the November discount for
58.3pc Fe blended fines (FBF), after
initially saying the discount would
stay unchanged. According to market
participants, the discount for FBF fines
will be 25.5pc for November 62pc
index-linked cargoes, compared with
23pc for October. The discount for
56.7pc superspecial fines (SSF) will stay
unchanged at 40pc.
• A 13mn t increase in shipments from its
three largest suppliers sent China’s iron
ore imports above the 100mn t level for
the first time in September, according
to China customs data, clocking in at a
total of 102.83mn t – up 11pc year-on-
year. Australia and South Africa both
shipped record amounts and Brazil
shipped its third-highest level.
• Higher shipments by Rio Tinto and
Roy Hill sent iron ore exports from the
big four Australian producers to a new
record in September. Rio Tinto and BHP,
together with Australian independents
Fortescue Metals and Roy Hill, exported
a total of 70.9mn t in September, up
from 69.5mn t in August and 65.8mn
t in September last year, according
to shipping data. This equates to an
annualised rate of 862mn t, up from
the previous record of 857mn t set in
December 2016, according to Swiss
bank UBS.
• Some cities in north and east China
will cut pig iron output by 50pc/month
starting in November, including in the
three major steelmaking regions of
Hebei, Shandong and Tianjin. Most
of the affected cities are also likely
to restrict sintering of iron ore fines
as well, as Beijing aims to reduce
smog in major cities this winter. As a
result, Crude steel output could fall
by 31mn t-47mn t during the winter
heating season, cutting iron ore use
by 15.53mn t/month, said state-owned
Chinese investment firm SDIC Essence
Futures Research.However, China’s
imported iron ore prices are unlikely to
crash this winter because steel output
will probably not fall “substantially”,
despite mandatory production cuts in
28 cities, said the China iron and steel
association (Cisa).
• A 50pc mandated production cut at
China’s pelletising plants has sent
premiums for iron ore pellet soaring,
and saw traded levels for Indian pellet
on a 64pc basis to 1,050-1,070 yuan/t
at Tangshan and Jingtang ports towards
the end of October.
• Brazil-based iron ore mining company
Samarco and its joint owners, Brazilian
mining firm Vale and UK-Australian
resources company BHP Billiton,
have extended the deadline for an
agreement with federal prosecutors in
Brazil to settle a $48.6bn civil claim
relating to a dam collapse in 2015.
The outcome of the negotiations were
expected by 30 June, then extended
until 30 October and has now been
extended to 16 November.
• China’s steel sector purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell to a
six-month low in October, although
output and demand continued to grow.
October’s steel PMI fell by 1.4 points
from a month earlier to 52.3, the lowest
level since April, said the China Steel
Professionals Logistics Committee
(CSLPC). The index remained above 50,
indicating a continued expansion.
• The PMIs for manufacturing activity,
more widely-watched barometer of
China’s industrial health, remained
in expansionary territory. The private
survey by Caixin of small- to mid-
sized firms came in unchanged, but
positive, at 51, and the official figure
– focusing more on larger state-owned
enterprises – registered 51.6, down
from 52.4 in September. Ongoing
efforts to cut pollution were cited.
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