Briefly analyzes the results of the Apr-May 2016 state elections in India. This article concludes that PM Modi has few options but to take powerful state Chief Ministers on board and adhere to a genuine cooperative federalism if the NDA is to successfully pass legislation, deliver meaningful governance and obtain a second term in office in the 2019 general election.

1. 1
What State Elections 2016 in India Mean for Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s Cooperative Federalism
Shantanu Basu
A very interesting set of election results on May 19, 2016. Of 800+ MLA seats
contested, both the BJP and Congress are not too far apart in terms of numbers.
Assam is just a glass of Glucon-D for the BJP leadership. In the numbers game
Assam simply does not matter much in the RS while in the LS, the BJP’s
strength is 7/14, never mind what Ram Madhav says about the BJP victory.
Even then, the BJP has won 59 seats of its own while the remaining 27 come
from its allies, the BPF and AGP. Within the Assam BJP, Sarbananda Sonowal
would have to watch out for Himanta Biswa Sarma and his overweening
ambition to become CM for which he left the Congress.
The BPF Chairman has now gone silent on the choice of a CM, media reports.
AGP similarly says that their prior approval to BJP’s CM candidate should have
been obtained. Both BPF and AGP will stick with the BJP for they have no
other options open to them. Yet they will claim more than their legitimate share
that may stymie Sonowal’s govt. These three elements may also prevail upon
Sonowal not to pursue corruption cases pending against nearly all of them. In
fine, the evolving Assam scenario will remain something to watch out for.
However, what is more alarming for the BJP is the accretion of two more
powerful regional satraps that have emerged even stronger, viz. Amma and
Didi. Both these ladies are tough administrators and political bargainers with
vaulting ambitions of their own. Their huge victories will also give them much-
needed strength in the RS that also means that GST or any other legislation
would depend more on these two ladies, than on the Congress.
While Didi has proclaimed her choice today, Amma will decide at her own
time, playing the guessing game till then. At the same time, BJP’s CMs are
powerful self-made men and women that owe little to the current central
leadership for their victories in their respective states, seldom seen in Raisina
Hill and Ashoka Road, New Delhi. Each one has their individual ambitions, and
why not?
Given the fact that Orissa, Kerala, WB, Bihar, TN , probably Punjab, UP and
Gujarat too in 2017, may be ruled by non-BJP parties/coalitions, would require
the BJP to adopt a vastly more cooperative and conciliatory attitude in dealing
with all states; after all governance is delivered to the extreme of 90% in states.
Conciliation, instead of abuse and vituperative, may make good BJP’s numbers

2. 2
in the RS, in tandem with fiscal transfers to states that prevailed before 2014.
Such conciliation may include writing off capital and interest on central loans to
states.
In many ways, the Indian polity shows every sign of healthy maturity with
single-party power centers elected across India. And none of these regimes owe
their birth to any dynasty. Hence they deserve much greater respect and regard
from the Centre. These satraps have already started scripting new relations
between the Centre and the states.
Insofar as the Congress is concerned, it is long past its shelf life, dangerous for
human consumption that most electors have belatedly realized. A Congress-free
India envisaged by BJP as a vision of a BJP-ruled India however, will remain a
mirage as local issues overshadow many national issues. Any party that
addresses local issues best will stand far better chances of election/re-election
and that is what today’s results are all about. And that will preserve the healthy
plurality in our polity and negate ambitions of single-party rule all over India. I
salute the Indian voter for his/her maturity!
Electors have become far more discerning. They accepted DMK’s goodies and
cash as they did the AIADMK, but voted for the latter. Likewise, a third of
Assam’s population that is Muslim realized they could no longer remain the
suckers as they did under the Congress. It is not communal polarization that BJP
benefitted from or by the RSS’s volunteer munificence in Assam; instead it is
an omnibus demand for development, a warning to the new BJP+ govt. in
Assam to perform or perish. WB voters similarly, rewarded AITMC for its
extensive good work in the backyards of the state, never mind how outraged
liberals may be (for they simply do not matter).
What do the results of today’s elections convey to PM Modi’s govt.? First,
much greater circumspection and respect for state CMs. Second, state CMs are
equal partners in decision-making on all national issues. Third, there must be
much greater devolution of finances and industrial promotion to states without
central interference. Fourth, financial autonomy ought to be granted to states in
developing infrastructure by transfer of central finances, creation of SPVs, etc.
Fifth, revive the National Development Council and hold its meetings every
quarter. Sixth, free states to jointly develop natural resources and public projects
without central intervention.
Seventh, foster regional development councils to promote regional development
with PM in the Chair. Eighth, consult CMs before appointing the Governor.
Ninth, after all the preceding, arrive at an arrangement by which each state
enters into a MOU-of-sorts defining annual set of targets for development and
provide for inter-state oversight that is also a mutual learning process. Last, but
not the least, institutionalize a mechanism that would provide a platform for

3. 3
MPs and MLAs from a region to meet every quarter for reviewing development
work.
The BJP suffers an unarguably huge talent deficit in its topmost ranks. The
states could contribute to considerably reducing such deficits with their talent. A
state CM is proportionately much more powerful and autonomous than the PM
himself; hence the latter requires having a great working relationship with the
former for they are his colleagues, not enemies.
Unless the BJP realizes that the key to re-election in 2019 lies in true
cooperative federalism (that Mr. Modi waxed eloquent but seemed to
conveniently forget after May 2014), tiny doses of oxygen like Assam may not
qualify it for re-election in 2019. It is for Mr. Modi to demonstrate his
statesmanship and electors are much shrewder than they were in the past.