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Tribes and Viruses:  by  Dr. Nikos Dimitriadis Communications 2.0 Explored
are the legions of    experts ready to face the challenges of  the world 2.0?  communications
The great journalist/correspondent John Simpson could not follow events after the Iran elections as fast as people twittering! Twitter vs. Journalists CITIZEN JOURNALISM
official website and merchandise numerous spoofs, comments, discussions  more than 30,000,000 views on YouTube David vs. Marketers  A global phenomenon! entered mainstream media (shows, press etc.) “ Best Week Ever” prize on the VH1 show  CITIZEN MARKETERS
Online advertising 'overtakes TV' ONLINE ADVERTISING SPENDING IN THE UK HAS OVERTAKEN TELEVISION EXPENDITURE FOR THE FIRST TIME. ONLINE SPENDING GREW 4.6% TO £1.752BN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2009, WHILE TV SPENDING SHRANK 16.1% TO £1.639BN. 30 September 2009
 
“ Trapped in a drain...try Facebook for help?”
Amplifying  the voice of the individual Web 2.0 Enhancing  interaction within or between communities
The Internet  (R) Evolution Internet was initially  transactional It has now become  conversational It is deemed to become  cerebral
Internet Evolution Models  (examples)
Understanding Tribes
The Framingham Social Network: Crhistakis N. and Fowler J. study on how relationships influence behavior, health and happiness Started in 1948 with 5,124 people to track heart deceases  They recorded close friends, colleagues and family members  In 2003, the above-mentioned researchers took over the data  Children and grandchildren of the original group also participated  The successful study on heart conditions had more to reveal!
Finding A:  Obese by Association 1948 10% Obesity, 1985 18% Obesity, Today 40% Obesity! Obesity radiated outward from clusters of overweight people   People in network proximity gained weight at approximately the same time Having an obese spouse raised the risk by 37 percent. If a friend became obese, the risk skyrocketed by 171 percent Lean individuals surrounded by obesity were rare! "Your friends who live far away have just as big an impact on your behavior as friends who live next door”
Finding B:  Smoking or Not, Together Smokers evenly distributed throughout Framingham's network   Clusters of smokers persisted, but many were socially isolated Smokers and nonsmokers intermingled, and many of the town's most excessive tobacco users had plenty of nonsmoking friends Entire coveys of smokers stopped in unison.  No man is an island.” 1971 2001 When smokers quit, their friends were 36 percent more likely to follow suit. The effect tapered with each degree of separation, becoming insignificant at four degrees  "The properties of our social networks are byproducts of evolution…
Finding C:  Happiness- Who is Around You? Each happy friend increased an individual's probability of being happy by 9%. An extra $5,000 in income raised it only 2%  According to an analysis of Facebook, people who smiled in their profile photos tended to cluster with other smilers  Even perfect strangers three degrees of separation away—friends of friends of friends—exerted a significant uplifting influence  On average, smiling Facebook members reported 15 percent more close friends than their grim peers.  Framingham Facebook Emotions spread especially well through the online network, so it's a good bet a person close to smilers will eventually post a smiling portrait  Offline and Online happiness spreads in similar ways
What does it mean for Marketers?
Network-Based Marketing: Hill S., Provost F. and Volinsky C. study on how important are social networks for identifying prospective target markets AT&T wanted to promote a new offer through direct mail The researchers created an extra segment based on communications patterns of individuals linked to prior customers They segmented the market into various groups based on demographic, geographic and CRM criteria This new segment consisted mostly by people that “fell though the cracks” Which segment was the most receptive to the new offer?
“ Network neighbors , those consumers linked to a prior customer, adopt the service at a rate 3.5 times greater than baseline groups selected by the best practices of the firm’s marketing team.  In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would  not have been identified  based on traditional attributes.” 3.5  times
The Question Do we need to  reconsider  our segmentation methods?
They add a cookie to your PC when you visit a client’s website The identify your “network neighbors” through your viral behavior  They communicate the client’s message to your viral friends
The Virus 1 billion USD 36% annual growth
Ideas spread like viruses Especially with the help of the Key Influentials
Duncan J. Watts ,  Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University Author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age,  and of  Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks between  Order and Randomness  He ran advanced computer simulations He programmed some people to be Influentials The idea did not spread regardless the viral strength of the influentials… …  until he also increased the viral strength of normal people!
“ A trend's success depends  not on the person who starts it , but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend.”  Not how persuasive the early adopter/trendsetter/superspreader is, but whether  everyone else  is ready and open to be persuaded.
Mapping the Viral Effect The Liben-Nowell D. and Kleinberg J. on tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mainly circulated in 2002 – 2003  Petition against the Iraq war 637 chains - 20,000 participants
The  individual  matters! It moves slowly!
What is missing? Networks (Tribes) Influentials Society Virus (Message) Individual
Examples Why some ideas are so good?
The Task NGO Organization  Increase Donations Objective  Design Message Task  Choose Appeal Dilemma  Rational Emotional
The Carnegie Mellon University Experiment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Two Letters ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1.14 2.38 1.43
The Continuation… ,[object Object],[object Object],1.26 2.34 Both groups were then given the Rokia letter
When people think  analytically   they cannot think  emotionally The Task
The “Creative” Problem What motivates me vs. what motivates “the others” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chip and Dan Heath, Made to Stick
The Chicken Burger King launched the  Tender Crisp Chicken Sandwich  They wanted to revive the brand  promise: “Have it your way!”  They targeted core customers 18-34, male, techies, FF loyals The campaign included a viral  website, print and TV ads crispin, porter + bogusky
Integrated online campaigns that include actively the audience
WE NEED: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can we become worthy members in the tribes?
Tribes and Viruses:  by  Dr. Nikos Dimitriadis Communications 2.0 Explored THANK YOU!
STRATEGIC ADVISORY AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE  E x e c u t i v e  G r o u p  Government Relations Marketing and  Branding Advisory  2009, 2007 PR Agency of the Year 2009 IPRA Golden World Award 2009 SABRE EMEA Award  STRATEGIC ADVISORY  BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE  Custom made studies/reports Belgrade Metropolitan  Corporate Communications Executive  Newsletter
OUR TEAM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SINCE 2003, OUR ADVISORY CLIENTS HAVE INVESTED  OVER USD 3 BILLION IN SERBIA . . . ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Active Clients Industry Home Country
. . . REPRESENTING A WIDE RANGE OF INDUSTRIAL, ECONOMIC, AND BUSINESS SECTORS . . . ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Active Clients Industry Home Country *Members:  Merck Sharp & Dohme, Pfizer, Alcon, Bayer-Schering, Astra Zeneca, J&J, GlaxoSmithKline,  Schering-Plough, Novartis,  Sanofi-Aventis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Servier, Merck d.o.o.
www.brandingadvisory.com

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Tribes And Viruses: Communications 2.0 Explored

  • 1. Tribes and Viruses: by Dr. Nikos Dimitriadis Communications 2.0 Explored
  • 2. are the legions of experts ready to face the challenges of the world 2.0? communications
  • 3. The great journalist/correspondent John Simpson could not follow events after the Iran elections as fast as people twittering! Twitter vs. Journalists CITIZEN JOURNALISM
  • 4. official website and merchandise numerous spoofs, comments, discussions more than 30,000,000 views on YouTube David vs. Marketers A global phenomenon! entered mainstream media (shows, press etc.) “ Best Week Ever” prize on the VH1 show CITIZEN MARKETERS
  • 5. Online advertising 'overtakes TV' ONLINE ADVERTISING SPENDING IN THE UK HAS OVERTAKEN TELEVISION EXPENDITURE FOR THE FIRST TIME. ONLINE SPENDING GREW 4.6% TO £1.752BN IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2009, WHILE TV SPENDING SHRANK 16.1% TO £1.639BN. 30 September 2009
  • 6.  
  • 7. “ Trapped in a drain...try Facebook for help?”
  • 8. Amplifying the voice of the individual Web 2.0 Enhancing interaction within or between communities
  • 9. The Internet (R) Evolution Internet was initially transactional It has now become conversational It is deemed to become cerebral
  • 12. The Framingham Social Network: Crhistakis N. and Fowler J. study on how relationships influence behavior, health and happiness Started in 1948 with 5,124 people to track heart deceases They recorded close friends, colleagues and family members In 2003, the above-mentioned researchers took over the data Children and grandchildren of the original group also participated The successful study on heart conditions had more to reveal!
  • 13. Finding A: Obese by Association 1948 10% Obesity, 1985 18% Obesity, Today 40% Obesity! Obesity radiated outward from clusters of overweight people People in network proximity gained weight at approximately the same time Having an obese spouse raised the risk by 37 percent. If a friend became obese, the risk skyrocketed by 171 percent Lean individuals surrounded by obesity were rare! "Your friends who live far away have just as big an impact on your behavior as friends who live next door”
  • 14. Finding B: Smoking or Not, Together Smokers evenly distributed throughout Framingham's network Clusters of smokers persisted, but many were socially isolated Smokers and nonsmokers intermingled, and many of the town's most excessive tobacco users had plenty of nonsmoking friends Entire coveys of smokers stopped in unison. No man is an island.” 1971 2001 When smokers quit, their friends were 36 percent more likely to follow suit. The effect tapered with each degree of separation, becoming insignificant at four degrees "The properties of our social networks are byproducts of evolution…
  • 15. Finding C: Happiness- Who is Around You? Each happy friend increased an individual's probability of being happy by 9%. An extra $5,000 in income raised it only 2% According to an analysis of Facebook, people who smiled in their profile photos tended to cluster with other smilers Even perfect strangers three degrees of separation away—friends of friends of friends—exerted a significant uplifting influence On average, smiling Facebook members reported 15 percent more close friends than their grim peers. Framingham Facebook Emotions spread especially well through the online network, so it's a good bet a person close to smilers will eventually post a smiling portrait Offline and Online happiness spreads in similar ways
  • 16. What does it mean for Marketers?
  • 17. Network-Based Marketing: Hill S., Provost F. and Volinsky C. study on how important are social networks for identifying prospective target markets AT&T wanted to promote a new offer through direct mail The researchers created an extra segment based on communications patterns of individuals linked to prior customers They segmented the market into various groups based on demographic, geographic and CRM criteria This new segment consisted mostly by people that “fell though the cracks” Which segment was the most receptive to the new offer?
  • 18. “ Network neighbors , those consumers linked to a prior customer, adopt the service at a rate 3.5 times greater than baseline groups selected by the best practices of the firm’s marketing team. In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would not have been identified based on traditional attributes.” 3.5 times
  • 19. The Question Do we need to reconsider our segmentation methods?
  • 20. They add a cookie to your PC when you visit a client’s website The identify your “network neighbors” through your viral behavior They communicate the client’s message to your viral friends
  • 21. The Virus 1 billion USD 36% annual growth
  • 22. Ideas spread like viruses Especially with the help of the Key Influentials
  • 23. Duncan J. Watts , Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University Author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age, and of Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks between Order and Randomness He ran advanced computer simulations He programmed some people to be Influentials The idea did not spread regardless the viral strength of the influentials… … until he also increased the viral strength of normal people!
  • 24. “ A trend's success depends not on the person who starts it , but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend.” Not how persuasive the early adopter/trendsetter/superspreader is, but whether everyone else is ready and open to be persuaded.
  • 25.
  • 26. The individual matters! It moves slowly!
  • 27. What is missing? Networks (Tribes) Influentials Society Virus (Message) Individual
  • 28. Examples Why some ideas are so good?
  • 29. The Task NGO Organization Increase Donations Objective Design Message Task Choose Appeal Dilemma Rational Emotional
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. When people think analytically they cannot think emotionally The Task
  • 34.
  • 35. The Chicken Burger King launched the Tender Crisp Chicken Sandwich They wanted to revive the brand promise: “Have it your way!” They targeted core customers 18-34, male, techies, FF loyals The campaign included a viral website, print and TV ads crispin, porter + bogusky
  • 36. Integrated online campaigns that include actively the audience
  • 37.
  • 38. Can we become worthy members in the tribes?
  • 39. Tribes and Viruses: by Dr. Nikos Dimitriadis Communications 2.0 Explored THANK YOU!
  • 40. STRATEGIC ADVISORY AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE E x e c u t i v e G r o u p Government Relations Marketing and Branding Advisory 2009, 2007 PR Agency of the Year 2009 IPRA Golden World Award 2009 SABRE EMEA Award STRATEGIC ADVISORY BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Custom made studies/reports Belgrade Metropolitan Corporate Communications Executive Newsletter
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.

Editor's Notes

  1. Would marketing directors, marketing departments with their agencies, advisors, research etc. would perform better-the same-or worse? As a marketer I have to say that I am afraid of the answer! But we need to answer it and our guess is that they would perform worse. So marketers are not becoming only unnecessary but problematic and a barrier to such success stories!
  2. 24 hours news cycle.
  3. This is not to say that TV is not important. It is and it can play its own role, especially for creating brand awareness. However, whatever we were dreaming or fearing about the internet is actually happening…. Consider this for example…
  4. 10 year old.
  5. 10 and 12 year old in Adelaide. You are trapped from flooding waters after a storm. You have a mobile phone with you, What do you do? These are not just interesting and amusing cases… they are something more. They demonstrate the early signs of cultural change. Who is to notice these changes and respond accordingly in companies if not the marketer?
  6. Maybe some of you have heard the old statistic: satisfied customers talk to 7 people, unsatisfied ones to 24… and we used this statistics to prove the importance of keeping our clients satisfied. Imagine today when an unsatisfied customer can post his/her complain online and reach thousands… and these thousands – because of the second quality of web 2.0- another thousand! Everything is out of proportion of what we have been used to and we need to keep up if it is not to become obsolete. Another big question is if companies are going to spend as much in personal PR as they did for journalists now that everybody has the power to create publicity!
  7. We know that identifying and understanding tribes are important aspects of modern marketing both in online and offline domains. We think that people in tribes talk to each other, influence each other, share the same values, the same leaders, obey the same behavioral patterns and rituals. However, there is little scientific data to support all these in modern environments. Until now that is… I will show 4 studies that enhance our understanding on the power and the mechanism of modern social networks.
  8. So, the internet is not so much changing the way that we behave and we have evolved as human beings… it is “just” enhancing, accelerating, amplifying this behavior. But what can marketers and companies do with all this data… what does it mean for our products, our services… our brands? The next study is providing some answers.
  9. Segment 22 was
  10. Segment 22 was considered by the marketing team as not technologically, demographically or otherwise ready for this offer!
  11. The time it takes us to consider this questions, there are some agencies in the US created based on the previous study.
  12. They put a cookie when you visit a client’s website. Then they observe your viral behavior and then they communicate the client’s message to your network neighbors (not an easy thing to do since this is network calculated through advanced algorithms).
  13. We talked a lot about tribes and we need to talk about viruses as well. You have heard the terms viral marketing, buss marketing, word of mouth marketing. 1 billion is spent per year in targeting influencers in order to spread viral marketing messages faster.
  14. Two boos are mainly responsible for the craze in the marketing work concerning the obsession with viruses, social epidemics, and key influencers/opinion leaders. Check the websites of most of the agencies/individuals that offer social media advice and you will see the mantra “we identify the most important people to target in order to spread your message”. But is it true? It DOES MAKE SENSE RIGHT?
  15. Opinion Leaders are still important but they cannot do miracles! The message and the readiness stage of the society matter. We need to know the collective understanding and acceptance of a topic to predict viral effect.…. and also the individual matters!
  16. The individual matters and it takes time!
  17. In the Gorilla seminar I used Cadbury's Gorilla ad to discuss that great ideas cannot be easily explained… if at all! If it could then the agency that produced them would follow them us with equally successful but they did not! My thesis was that modern marketers need to tap into recent scientific results. Let’s continue that discussion!
  18. OK about emotions motivating us more than rationality… but why the combination figure is so bad? If it did not improve the 2.38 it should not have a negative effect, right? In the end, it just adds the facts. What’s going on here?
  19. Logical thinking blocks emotions blocks motivation!
  20. This does not mean you should not use numbers… it is how you use them and what importance you give to them. The study is about motivation… what motivates us more is emotions and not logic. There are many studies on that but we do not have the time… maybe at the next seminar!
  21. … so we are superior human beings (above materialism, indeed motivated by emotions) while the others are just in it for the money!
  22. Launch 2004, “Have it your way” (slogan since 1974) is the differentiating point of Burger King from main competition since they are flexible in taking orders, sales and stock price up, millions of visits on the website, a lot of publicity. The most important: connecting with core customers that will bring more results in the future.