This document summarizes a content analysis of conference proceedings from the Portuguese Hotels Association between 1993-1999 to identify key trends in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality sectors. The analysis uses a SWOT framework to categorize strengths, weaknesses, and environmental issues identified. It finds that tourism in Portugal faced recession in the early 1990s due to various factors. There was an absence of clear long-term strategy around differentiation, marketing research, and product management. Strengths like natural and cultural resources were not effectively leveraged against threats due to issues like over-dependence on government and EU funding and difficulties expanding into new markets.

1. Trends in Portuguese tourism: a content analysis of
association and trade representative perspectives
Paulo Ramos
Senior Researcher, Centre for Trends Study in Hospitality and Tourism (CETS-HT),
Fernando Pessoa University, Porto, Portugal
Ana Salazar
Senior Researcher, Centre for Trends Study in Hospitality and Tourism (CETS-HT),
Fernando Pessoa University, Porto, Portugal
JoaÄo Gomes
Senior Researcher, Centre for Trends Study in Hospitality and Tourism (CETS-HT),
Fernando Pessoa University, Porto, Portugal
Introduction
The objective of this paper is to provide a
summarised view of the main trends in the
Portuguese tourism and hospitality sectors
based on the analysis of the proceedings of
The Portuguese Hotels Association
Conferences (1993-1999). In carrying out the
analysis the conceptual framework used is
based on the SWOT analysis (Strengths,
Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)
proposed by Johnson and Scholes (1997).
The approach comprised selecting texts
from the conference proceedings that indicate
the key issues and trends in the sector. For
each conference we have analysed the texts
from the opening sessions' speeches and those
focusing on the following main issues:
. XI Conference (1993): Tourism Promotion,
Marketing Strategy and Definition of
Priority Markets; Supply Restructuring
and Innovation.
. XII Conference (1994): Competitiveness
and Costs; Key Instruments for Tourism
Attraction; Security and Tourism;
Competitiveness through Differentiation.
. XIII Conference (1995): The Culture of
Tourism; Tourism Financial Supporting
Framework; Factors Affecting
Competitiveness in Tourism.
. XIV Conference (1996): Tourism Promotion;
Tourism Competitiveness;
Internationalisation in the Tourism Sector.
. XV Conference (1997): Tourism in Algarve;
Tourism in Portugal; New Tourism
Financial Supporting Framework;
Tourism Politics; Tourism Resources.
. XVI Conference (1999): Promotional
Activity; Tourism Promotion in the Third
Millennium; Experiences in Tourism
Promotion.
The criteria applied in the selection of the
texts were:
. format of the texts (handouts and notes
were rejected due to their abbreviated
format);
. theme (when it is irrelevant to the context
of the research and its objectives).
Methodological approach and
conceptual framework
The texts were analysed using a content
analysis approach:
Content analysis is an accepted method of
textual investigation (F F F) it involves
establishing categories and then counting the
number of instances when those categories
are used in a particular item of text
(Silverman, 1997).
It also allows replicable and valid inferences
from data to their context (Krippendorff,
cited in Robson, 1997). This requires a
document analysis that provides an
unobtrusive measure of data not directly
observed by the researchers. In this study the
aim was to identify and understand the
participants' categorizations rather than to
count in terms of researchers' categories
(Silverman, 1997).
Following the suggestions made by Robson
(1997) and Bardin (1991) the stages adopted
for the analysis were:
1 Research question: to identify the main
trends in the Portuguese tourism sector
and the major changes affecting the sector
and how it is reacting to changes in the
environment.
2 Choice of documents: published
conference proceedings of the AHP from
the XI (1993) to the XVI Conference (1999).
3 Recording units: the paragraph and/or the
sentence when the sentences in a
paragraph can be included in different
categories.
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
http://www.emerald-library.com
[ 409 ]
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416
# MCB University Press
[ISSN 0959-6119]
Keywords
Portugal, Tourism,
Content analysis, SWOT analysis
Abstract
A SWOT analysis is used to
perform a content analysis on the
proceedings of The Portuguese
Hotels Association Conferences
(1993-1999). The analysis
undertaken aimed to identify the
main trends and key issues in the
Portuguese tourism and
hospitality sectors. From the
analysis it is identified that there
is an absence of a clear and
enduring strategy on issues like
differentiation and positioning of
its products and services,
marketing research and product
portfolio management. The
analysis of the sector's main
strengths against the key trends
indicates that tourism and
hospitality depend too much on
the environmental changes. Some
of the main constraints that lead
to the incapacity to capitalise on
the key trends are the excess of
governmental control, difficulties
in reaching new markets, and
over-dependence on EU funds for
investments.

2. 4 Categorization: determinations of the
categories according to the model used.
5 Analysis technique: in order to find the
key environmental issues the presence of
sentences that are synonymous will fulfil
a category. The frequency and the context
are also criteria for identifying the key
categories.
The texts are broken down into categories
created according to the topics and
guidelines suggested by the framework used:
the SWOT analysis proposed by Johnson and
Scholes (1997). This model provides the pre-
determined categories for analysing the text.
During the process of reading and classifying
some new categories and sub-categories
emerged. Figure 1 shows the different stages
in the analysis of the data.
The main categories are broken down
according to their relevance in terms of their
frequency and authorship as presented in
Table I.
The proposed SWOT model is a useful tool
to summarize a strategic analysis
particularly in the field of resources,
competences and strategic capability
(Johnson and Scholes, 1997). In this paper it
is used to summarise and guide a content
analysis that aims to identify the main trends
and key issues affecting the Portuguese
tourism and hospitality sectors.
Using the proceedings of The Portuguese
Hotels Association Conferences as a source of
secondary information the model provides
the main categories to explore the text: Key
Issues in the Environment, Main Strengths
and Main Weaknesses. Following the
Johnson and Scholes (1997) recommendations
the SWOT analysis model aimed to identify
the extent to which the current strategy of the
tourism and hospitality sectors and its more
specific strengths and weaknesses are
relevant to, and capable of, dealing with the
changes taking place in the business
environment (Johnson and Scholes, 1997).
The reason for selecting the Johnson and
Scholes' approach results from the fact that
more traditional SWOT models identify the
main strengths and weakness (internal
analysis) against the main opportunities and
threats (external analysis), whilst Johnson and
Scholes propose a model that replaces the
opportunities and threats by the key issues in
the environment when comparing their impact
on the identified strengths and weaknesses.
This SWOT model examines the main
strengths and weaknesses against each key
issue in the environment. A score of + (or a
weighted ++) is proposed when there is a
benefit to the organization such as a strength
that allows the sector to take advantage of or
to counteract a problem arising from a key
environmental change or when a weakness
would be offset by the environmental change.
A minus (or a double minus) is marked when
there is an adverse effect on the organization,
when a strength would be reduced by the
environmental change or a weakness would
prevent the sector from overcoming the
problems associated with or accentuated by
an environmental change.
Evolution of the trends in the
Portuguese tourism and hospitality
sectors
This analysis starts with the first
proceedings of the XI National Conference on
Hospitality and Tourism held in 1993 and
ends with the proceedings from the XVI
National Conference on Hospitality and
Figure 1
Method for qualitative analysis of the conference proceedings
Table I
Method for classifying the categories arising
from the content analysis
Main category
High relevance Sub category 1:
Sub category 2:
Medium relevance Sub category 1:
Sub category 2:
Low relevance Sub category 1:
Sub category 2:
[ 410 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

3. Tourism held in 1999. In 1998 the Association
did not organize the annual conference.
In the proceedings from 1993 and 1994 the
main topic arising is the recession faced by
the sector. After a growing demand until 1988
the number of tourists started to decline. In
1991, Portugal had 19 million visitors.
Although this is a significant figure for a
country with a population around nine
million, from 1991 to 1992 there was a decline
of 5 per cent in the room occupation rate.
Many of the contributors identified factors
that led to the declining numbers of tourists
(the key factors are listed in Table II). There
seems to be a major difficulty in dealing with
the key trend developments. One aspect
which was not covered by any of the
contributions but has a great impact on the
difficulties in adapting the tourism products
to demand is the lack of marketing research.
This is further confirmed by the absence of
facts and figures from the government and
tourism industry representatives. In the
Valle (1995) perspective it was necessary to
develop market studies to find out who are
the tourists and what they want.
Another important constraint is the high
level of government intervention. The
majority of the sector representatives
complained about the limitations imposed by
the regulator. An example of this is the
prohibition on selling wine by the glass in a
country that is the seventh wine producer in
the world.
In general terms, most of the suggestions
made by the government and by the
Portuguese tourism sector representatives
indicate the adoption of a diversification
strategy (Martins, 1993; Viegas, 1993). There
are two alternative routes for reaching
diversification: product development and
market development as shown in Figure 2. It
is not clear, from the presented perspectives,
if the diversification strategy should start by
creating new products or by seeking new
markets.
Those in favour of the development of new
products and services pointed out that the
main tactical orientation should focus on
more investment in professional training,
better use of technology and alternatives to
the ``sea and sun'', such as: rural and
ecological, health, religious, sports, in
particular golf and hunting and cultural
tourism. These different forms of tourism
should, in Silva's (1993) perspective, be
associated with particular country regions.
The market development strategy should
focus on a clear segmentation of the markets
rather than just finding new markets. The
main objective is not just to attract more
tourists but also to increase their expenditure
while on holiday. Another perspective (Telles,
1993) is to develop direct links with the
customers to diminish dependency on the
major tour operators. A further option is to
find specialized tour operators that will bring
more profitable segments.
It seems inevitable that a market
development strategy leading to a
diversification strategy has to be built vis-aÁ-
vis with a product development strategy.
Without the creation of differentiated
products and services the Portuguese
tourism industry would have serious
difficulties in attracting new consumers.
The recession continued until 1995 resulting
in a continuous decline of prices and internal
and external demand from 1988 (Saviotti,
1996). The daily average occupation rate in the
hotels was 47 per cent in 1994 against 55 per
cent in 1980 (Cunha, 1995). The daily average
consumption decreased from PTE 2,100 in 1980
to PTE 1,500 in 1994 (Cunha, 1995). However, in
1996 the same figures increased suggesting a
gentle recovery. The key trends reported in
1996 by the World Travel and Tourism Council
(WTTC) supports this point, since the figures
presented indicate a development in the
Portuguese tourism, with growth rates for the
next ten years estimated to be: 38 per cent in
GNP, 9 per cent in employment and 48 per cent
in investment (Rodrigues, 1996a).
From the analysis of the 1997 and 1999
proceedings it was clear that there has been a
gradual recovery in hospitality revenues
since 1996, due to an increase in internal and
external tourist flows and consequent room
occupancy rates. Regarding demand trends,
Portugal had an increase in external arrivals
(2.4 per cent on 1998) and revenues (2 per cent
on 1998), as well as in the average daily
spending per tourist since 1996. There is some
difficulty in explaining these key trends;
however, some contributors suggested that
Table II
The main factors contributing to the declining numbers of tourists
Constraints for the declining demand
High relevance Excess of undifferentiated offer
Dependency on a restricted number of markets
Difficulties in coping with major trends in demand
Economic recession
Increasing competition
Low investment in promotion
Seasonality
Inefficient laws
Low professional qualifications
Medium relevance Confusing classification system
Lack of infrastructures
Safety cases exaggerated in the media
Low relevance Misleading classification of some units
Low average number of beds by unit (11 beds per unit on average)
[ 411 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

4. this increase is due to the globalisation of
tourism (Rodrigues, 1996b; Vieira, 1996), while
others attributed this to the increase in the
number of internal tourists due to an
aggressive advertising campaign sponsored
by the Government Tourism Office.
In 1999, tourism was the main Portuguese
economic activity, representing 8 per cent of
GNP, which shows the relative importance of
the sector in the Portuguese economy (Neto,
1998). According to OMT, tourism has the
highest predicted growing rate (4 to 5 per cent
per year till 2020), and will be the main world
economic activity in the near future. As of
now, one out of nine persons in the active
world population are employed in the
tourism sector (Forte, 1997).
In the 1995 and 1996 proceedings the main
difficulties and weaknesses facing the
Portuguese tourism sector are presented in
Tables III and IV. It is interesting to note is the
similarity to those identified for the period of
the early 1990s and reported in the 1993 and
1994 proceedings. Thus the recovery in
Portuguese tourism seems to be more
associated with global movements, than with
a concerted strategy. According to Rodrigues
(1996a,b) the competition with new
destinations is growing, specially for the ``sea
and sun'' products (Vieira, 1996). This is
identified as a serious threat for the
Portuguese tourism due to a high dependence
of the sector on ``sea and sun'' products,
leading to seasonality demand. Another
constraint is the excessive concentration of
the external demand; in 1995 the European
market represented 90 per cent of the tourists
visiting Portugal coming mainly from
Germany, UK and The Netherlands (Cunha,
1995). Other important limitations facing the
sector was the structure of costs and prices.
The continuous increase in global and local
competition leads to a reduction in the selling
prices, while the high costs related with taxes
contribute to a decline of competitiveness.
From the analysis of 1997 and 1999
proceedings similar conclusions emerged
(Forte, 1997; Lopes, 1997; Silva, 1999). Forte
(1997) suggested that the financial support
systems and taxes regulations should be
reformulated in order to enlarge the
Portuguese tourism competitive advantages. It
is important to note some references to the
Euro introduction in 2002 (Andrez, 1997;
Branco, 1997) and the consequences and
impacts arising from the expected changes in
economic, technological, political and social
environment, particularly in the issues related
to tourism (Branco, 1997). However, according
to Forte (1997) there is great a lack of
information about the economic and monetary
integration in Portugal, which is a limitation of
the development of the tourism sector.
The key trends in future perspectives
identified by the contributors in the 1995 and
1996 proceedings (see Table V) are mainly
concerned with tourism globalisation,
meaning more people travelling to all parts of
the world, discovering new destinations
(TheotoÂnio, 1996; Trindade, 1996; Vieira,
1996). Another important issue resulting
from the analysis is the internationalisation
of the sector. It is strongly recommended
(Cunha, 1995; Rodrigues, 1996a,b) that
Portuguese managers should invest more in
external markets and that the government
should create more versatile programms to
support these financial operations. Finally
the protection of environment as a strategic
resource for a sustainable development of
tourism is recommended (Ferreira, 1995a, b;
Laia, 1995; Valle, 1995; TheotoÂnio, 1996;
Trindade, 1996; Vieira, 1996). From these
contributors' perspectives the sector must:
. develop more efficient promotional
programmes;
Figure 2
Product/market expansion and differentation grid
Table III
The main factors contributing to the structure
of costs and prices
Structure of costs and prices
High relevance Exchange rate policy
High interest rates
Insufficient governmental support
Medium relevance High taxes
High airline taxes
Low reinvestment
Low relevance High energy cost
Low selling prices
[ 412 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

5. . develop new products for existing and new
markets, with diversification of the offer;
. seek new market segments.
From the analysis of the 1997 and 1999 (in 1998
the conference did not take place) proceedings,
the following key issues and trends facing the
sector in the future were identified:
. globalisation of tourism;
. operators and hotel chain mergers;
. fast market evolutions;
. new technologies allowing growth of
e-commerce and direct interaction
between consumers and hotels;
. one-to-one marketing;
. database management;
. Web sites as tourist information centres;
. direct online marketing;
. new distribution networks and faster
booking systems.
The issues listed above are all common
characteristics to developed and tourism
oriented countries. This can be seen as an
opportunity and a challenge to Portuguese
firms.
A number of specific issues affecting the
Portuguese tourism sector were found. A
situational analysis was conducted in order
to characterize the actual national
panorama. New governmental regulations
were published and the Tourist Marketing
Council was created in order to enhance
cooperation between public and private
sectors. Portuguese Institute for External
Commerce (ICEP) suffered a profound
alteration in its organic structure. This was
considered as a positive fact (Carneiro, 1999)
allowing an independent firm to be in charge
of all promotional strategies and
programmes. This will lead to an adequate,
unique and consistent promotional activity
concerning Portugal's brand image.
A tourism observatory was created to
monitor trends and tourism regions have
now a more involved and significant role in
the strategic planning process (OsoÂrio, 1999).
The approved III Community Supporting
Framework (QCA) for 2000/2006 included a
high percentage allocated to tourism, which
confirms the importance of the sector.
Since 1995 the contributors identified a
change in the tourist profile and some key
consumer trends regarding the future were
pointed out (Valle, 1995; Vieira 1996; Silva,
1999). It is also expected that customers will
be more demanding and better educated,
more willing to travel, with higher service
quality patterns and enjoying shorter holiday
periods. At the same time there will be an
increasing number of senior and young
tourists, seeking ecological and cultural
experiences. It was again emphasised that
the future development of the sector should
focus on a diversification strategy.
This is consistent with the sector
expectations and future courses of action as
identified in the proceedings:
. The core product ``sea and sun'', namely in
the Algarve, must be complemented with
sports activities, specially golf, nature/
environment experiences, conferences,
senior tourism and holiday houses, in
order to offer an augmented product as well
as to overcome seasonality. Regarding this
point what has to be explored are the key
competitive advantages for the Portuguese
tourism sector, that from the contributors'
perspectives result from the natural
resources available in the country, namely:
the excellent weather coupled with a high
number of beautiful beaches, good
historical and cultural heritage, kindly and
friendly people, superb wines and foods,
market know-how and good security of the
country (Almeida, 1996; Saviotti, 1999;
Trindade, 1996; Vieira, 1996; Pires, 1999).
. Huge investments are also expected in
equipment and infrastructures,
namely transport networks, and
communicational programmes to
reposition the offer.
Major recommendations to the tourism and
hospitality sectors made by the contributors
are summarized in Table VI.
Table IV
The main factors contributing to supply and demand
Supply and demand
High relevance High seasonality
High concentration of external demand
High dependence on ``sun and sea''
Low service quality
Highly undifferentiated offer
Low professional qualifications
Medium relevance Commercialisation by a reduced number of international tours
Low relevance Low statistical information
Table V
The main factors contributing to future opportunities
Future opportunities
High relevance Diversification of animation programmes
Regulation of undifferentiated offer
Developing ecological and environmental protection programmes
Segmentation of markets
Developing more efficient promotional programmes
Medium relevance Utilisation of new technologies
Developing professional training
Developing higher quality products
Low relevance Trying to control the distribution channels and commercialisation
[ 413 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

6. SWOT analysis
The following SWOT analysis (Figure 3) was
conducted with the objective of summarising
the main findings arising from the
proceedings analysed, and to assess the
capabilities of the Portuguese tourism sector
to cope with the major changes in the
environment. This will be a useful
instrument from which some implications
taking place can be drawn.
From the analysis of Figure 3, the
Portuguese tourism sector does not seem to be
particularly prepared to deal with the major
changes in the environment (see its main
weaknesses). It is identified that there is an
absence of a clear and enduring strategy on
issues like differentiation and positioning of
its products and services, marketing research
and product portfolio management. In the
proceedings there is a clear and continuous
reference to most of these weaknesses along
the years covered by this research (1993-1999).
The situation calls for a deeper understanding
of the sector and its ruling institutions in the
implementation of the strategies that they
themselves have pointed out.
The analysis of the main strengths against
the key trends indicates a sector that depends
too much on the environmental changes. The
recession in the late 1980s and early 1990s
seems to be caused by external factors that
made clear the weaknesses of the Portuguese
Table VI
The main recommendations for the sector
Recommendations
High relevance Market segmentation, product specialization and innovation
resulting from marketing research
Advertising campaigns to improve awareness of the Portugal brand
with new indentity and institutional image
Aggressive promotional programmes to communicate differentiation
Professional training focusing on customer orientation and service
excellence
Medium relevance Public and private sector partnership
Improve and communicate Portuguese hotels' service quality
Low relevance Relationship marketing focusing on high levels of customer loyalty
in order to retain customers through repeated purchasing patterns
Online marketing as an interactive communication tool
Figure 3
SWOT analysis of the Portuguese tourism sector
[ 414 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

7. tourism sector. The slow recovery that
started in 1996 not only confirms this
dependency but also the slow response from
Portuguese tourism entrepreneurs. Some of
the main constraints to this incapacity to
capitalise on the key trends are the excess of
governmental control, difficulties in
reaching new markets, and over-dependence
on EU funds for investments. Nevertheless,
some positive examples can be presented: the
development of a high quality agro-tourism
(but still with a low occupation rate
corresponding to the introduction stage of its
life cycle), golf resorts, and city and event
promotion like EXPO 98 (that attracted
mainly Spanish and internal tourists), Porto
European Capital of Culture 2001 and Euro
2004 European Football Cup.
Conclusion
Portuguese industry faces many challenges
for the future. The economic importance of
the sector is well demonstrated by
governmental and trade representatives.
Where difficulties lie is in the definition of a
clear strategy and its consequent
implementation using the most effective
promotional instruments. Not all identified
problems are related with the promotional
area. It is clear that the sector needs more
investment and more focus on service quality
in order to attract the desired target markets.
The Portuguese tourism sector should
focus on their competitive advantages that in
a broad perspective result from a genuine
product with a specific cultural heritage.
That can be overshadowed by some
globalisation trends that favour the
development of mass in the tourism sector.
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[ 415 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416

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Further reading
Bastos, C. (1993), ``Tourism promotion: marketing
strategy and definition of priority markets'' XI
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[ 416 ]
Paulo Ramos, Ana Salazar and
JoaÄo Gomes
Trends in Portuguese tourism:
a content analysis of
association and trade
representative perspectives
International Journal of
Contemporary Hospitality
Management
12/7 [2000] 409±416