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Timescales of Massive Human
Entrainment
Riccardo Fusaroli, Marcus Perlman, Alan Mislove, Alexandra Paxton, Teenie
Matlock and Rick Dale (2015, in PLoS One)
Overview
• What is the impact of conversational
patterns (keynote on Wednesday)?
• Externally driven collective attention
• A massive social event: 2012 US
presidential debates
• Measuring collective attention: tweets
1. short-term interactional
entrainment
2. slower content entrainment
3. long-term rise and decay
• Reproducible across debates
2012 US presidential debates
• Highly salient
media event (192
million viewers)
debated on Twitter (> 20 million Tweets and 11 million Tweeters
An Overview
• Measuring Attention
What is a debate about? I
• “Romney appeared practiced, at ease,
confident and fluent: [he] aggressively
criticized his opponent”
• “[Obama had] a chance to brush his opponent
back by hammering home [his program]”
• Display of dominance as a shortcut to evaluate leadership and presidential character (e.g.
King et al 2009)
Interactional Entrainment
• Holding the floor
• Interrupting the interlocutor
Obama talking
Others talking
Time talking (s)
Mixed Effects Regression Models:
Fixed effects for speaker, duration of speaking in each speech turn, and interaction.
Random effect for turn number, along with nested slopes for both candidate identity and time within turn number. Standa
Cf. Previous Model + Interruption
Standardized Beta > .55
Interactions .1 < Beta < .8
Mixed effects models: .1 < R2m <.3
conds collective attention follows the interactional dynamics of th
What is a debate about? II
“big bird” (10,076 mentions) “binder” (2,889) “bayonet” (5,458)
Time from mention (s)
Tweets/s
“Big bird” “Binder” “Bayonet”
(10,076 mentions) (2,889) (5,458)
Model:
• exponential decay function (the fall from a burst of mentions due to novelty or salience of the event)
• coupled to a sigmoid (self-sustaining dynamics based on a threshold of initial attention
.35<R2<.86
Content Entrainment
• It takes time to first mention (ca 10s)
• Peaks happen after the debate has moved on (ca 60
s)
• Attention self-sustains for long periods (high rate for
>10 minutes)
Is the debate over yet?
• Global rise and decay of collective attention
All together now:
Predicting collective attention
Using the model from debate 1 on debates 2 & 3:
R2= .10 & .16
Discussion
• Collective entrainment is multi-scale:
• quick entrainment to interactional dynamics
• slower but more intrinsically sustained to content
• even slower rise and decay
• Possible next steps
• Emotional valence
• Impact of political affiliation
• Impact on public opinion
Thanks!
Holding the floor effects
Interruption Effects
Salient content Effects
Combined models

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Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment - Talk at ICCSS 2015

  • 1. Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment Riccardo Fusaroli, Marcus Perlman, Alan Mislove, Alexandra Paxton, Teenie Matlock and Rick Dale (2015, in PLoS One)
  • 2. Overview • What is the impact of conversational patterns (keynote on Wednesday)? • Externally driven collective attention • A massive social event: 2012 US presidential debates • Measuring collective attention: tweets 1. short-term interactional entrainment 2. slower content entrainment 3. long-term rise and decay • Reproducible across debates
  • 3. 2012 US presidential debates • Highly salient media event (192 million viewers) debated on Twitter (> 20 million Tweets and 11 million Tweeters
  • 5. What is a debate about? I • “Romney appeared practiced, at ease, confident and fluent: [he] aggressively criticized his opponent” • “[Obama had] a chance to brush his opponent back by hammering home [his program]” • Display of dominance as a shortcut to evaluate leadership and presidential character (e.g. King et al 2009)
  • 6. Interactional Entrainment • Holding the floor • Interrupting the interlocutor
  • 7. Obama talking Others talking Time talking (s) Mixed Effects Regression Models: Fixed effects for speaker, duration of speaking in each speech turn, and interaction. Random effect for turn number, along with nested slopes for both candidate identity and time within turn number. Standa
  • 8. Cf. Previous Model + Interruption Standardized Beta > .55 Interactions .1 < Beta < .8
  • 9. Mixed effects models: .1 < R2m <.3 conds collective attention follows the interactional dynamics of th
  • 10. What is a debate about? II “big bird” (10,076 mentions) “binder” (2,889) “bayonet” (5,458)
  • 11. Time from mention (s) Tweets/s “Big bird” “Binder” “Bayonet” (10,076 mentions) (2,889) (5,458) Model: • exponential decay function (the fall from a burst of mentions due to novelty or salience of the event) • coupled to a sigmoid (self-sustaining dynamics based on a threshold of initial attention .35<R2<.86
  • 12. Content Entrainment • It takes time to first mention (ca 10s) • Peaks happen after the debate has moved on (ca 60 s) • Attention self-sustains for long periods (high rate for >10 minutes)
  • 13. Is the debate over yet? • Global rise and decay of collective attention
  • 14. All together now: Predicting collective attention Using the model from debate 1 on debates 2 & 3: R2= .10 & .16
  • 15. Discussion • Collective entrainment is multi-scale: • quick entrainment to interactional dynamics • slower but more intrinsically sustained to content • even slower rise and decay • Possible next steps • Emotional valence • Impact of political affiliation • Impact on public opinion
  • 17. Holding the floor effects