Bab ini membahas tentang pengukuran waktu, sudut, jarak, dan kecepatan dalam pemecahan masalah. Siswa diajarkan cara menulis dan mengubah notasi waktu 12 jam dan 24 jam, menghitung operasi waktu antara jam, menit, dan detik, mengukur sudut menggunakan busur derajat, serta menyelesaikan masalah yang melibatkan waktu, jarak, dan kecepatan.
HASIL EVALUASI KINERJA PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH TAHUN 2009 PROVINSI DIYEKPD
Ringkasan dokumen tersebut adalah sebagai berikut:
Dokumen tersebut membahas lima indikator utama pembangunan daerah yaitu tingkat pelayanan publik dan demokrasi, tingkat kualitas SDM, tingkat pembangunan ekonomi, tingkat pengelolaan SDA dan lingkungan hidup, serta tingkat kesejahteraan sosial di Provinsi DIY dari tahun 2004 hingga 2009. Secara umum capaian pembangunan DIY pada beberapa indikator
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang uji hipotesis paired sample t-test dan independent sample t-test. Secara garis besar, dokumen tersebut menjelaskan tujuan praktikum uji hipotesis untuk memahami konsep paired sample t-test dan independent sample t-test serta menyelesaikan kasus-kasusnya. Dokumen tersebut juga menyertakan contoh-contoh kasus beserta data dan langkah pengerjaannya menggunakan program SPSS untuk melakukan uji statistik
Analisa hasil peperiksaan tahun 6 menunjukkan beberapa mata pelajaran perlu diperbaiki. Strategi yang diambil termasuk latihan soalan berstruktur, perbincangan teknik menjawab, dan program pemantapan bahasa. Guru akan bekerjasama untuk meningkatkan pengajaran dan pembelajaran.
Dokumen ini membahas tentang efektifitas komunikasi aparat desa dalam mewujudkan ketahanan wilayah. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan mengambil sampel 40 responden dari pengurus Karang Taruna di Desa Tunggulrejo untuk memperoleh data melalui kuesioner dan wawancara. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa efektifitas komunikasi aparat desa tidak hanya ditentukan oleh frekuensi pertemuan tetapi
Large-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression on SparkViet-Trung TRAN
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a local version of spatial regression that captures spatial dependency in regression analysis. GWR has many application in practice as a visualization and prediction tool for spatial exploration- (e.g in climate, economy, medical). However, this locally regression model is slow in process upon the volume of calculations and the spatial getting bigger. Improving performance of GWR is an critical issue, but their distributed implementations have not been studied. Recently, with the advent of Spark as well MapReduce framework, the development of machine learning applications and parallel programming becomes easier. In this article, we propose several large-scale implementations of distributed GWR, leveraging Spark framework. We implemented and evaluated these approaches with large datasets. To our best knowledge, this is the first work addressing GWR at large-scale.
Bab ini membahas tentang pengukuran waktu, sudut, jarak, dan kecepatan dalam pemecahan masalah. Siswa diajarkan cara menulis dan mengubah notasi waktu 12 jam dan 24 jam, menghitung operasi waktu antara jam, menit, dan detik, mengukur sudut menggunakan busur derajat, serta menyelesaikan masalah yang melibatkan waktu, jarak, dan kecepatan.
HASIL EVALUASI KINERJA PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH TAHUN 2009 PROVINSI DIYEKPD
Ringkasan dokumen tersebut adalah sebagai berikut:
Dokumen tersebut membahas lima indikator utama pembangunan daerah yaitu tingkat pelayanan publik dan demokrasi, tingkat kualitas SDM, tingkat pembangunan ekonomi, tingkat pengelolaan SDA dan lingkungan hidup, serta tingkat kesejahteraan sosial di Provinsi DIY dari tahun 2004 hingga 2009. Secara umum capaian pembangunan DIY pada beberapa indikator
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang uji hipotesis paired sample t-test dan independent sample t-test. Secara garis besar, dokumen tersebut menjelaskan tujuan praktikum uji hipotesis untuk memahami konsep paired sample t-test dan independent sample t-test serta menyelesaikan kasus-kasusnya. Dokumen tersebut juga menyertakan contoh-contoh kasus beserta data dan langkah pengerjaannya menggunakan program SPSS untuk melakukan uji statistik
Analisa hasil peperiksaan tahun 6 menunjukkan beberapa mata pelajaran perlu diperbaiki. Strategi yang diambil termasuk latihan soalan berstruktur, perbincangan teknik menjawab, dan program pemantapan bahasa. Guru akan bekerjasama untuk meningkatkan pengajaran dan pembelajaran.
Dokumen ini membahas tentang efektifitas komunikasi aparat desa dalam mewujudkan ketahanan wilayah. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan mengambil sampel 40 responden dari pengurus Karang Taruna di Desa Tunggulrejo untuk memperoleh data melalui kuesioner dan wawancara. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa efektifitas komunikasi aparat desa tidak hanya ditentukan oleh frekuensi pertemuan tetapi
Large-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression on SparkViet-Trung TRAN
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a local version of spatial regression that captures spatial dependency in regression analysis. GWR has many application in practice as a visualization and prediction tool for spatial exploration- (e.g in climate, economy, medical). However, this locally regression model is slow in process upon the volume of calculations and the spatial getting bigger. Improving performance of GWR is an critical issue, but their distributed implementations have not been studied. Recently, with the advent of Spark as well MapReduce framework, the development of machine learning applications and parallel programming becomes easier. In this article, we propose several large-scale implementations of distributed GWR, leveraging Spark framework. We implemented and evaluated these approaches with large datasets. To our best knowledge, this is the first work addressing GWR at large-scale.
Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 Fase E Kurikulum MerdekaFathan Emran
Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka.
Universitas Negeri Jakarta banyak melahirkan tokoh pendidikan yang memiliki pengaruh didunia pendidikan. Beberapa diantaranya ada didalam file presentasi
PPT RENCANA AKSI 2 modul ajar matematika berdiferensiasi kelas 1Arumdwikinasih
Pembelajaran berdiferensiasi merupakan pembelajaran yang mengakomodasi dari semua perbedaan murid, terbuka untuk semua dan memberikan kebutuhan-kebutuhan yang dibutuhkan oleh setiap individu.kelas 1 ........
Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka - [abdiera.com]Fathan Emran
Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka.
Workshop "CSR & Community Development (ISO 26000)"_di BALI, 26-28 Juni 2024Kanaidi ken
Dlm wktu dekat, Pelatihan/WORKSHOP ”CSR/TJSL & Community Development (ISO 26000)” akn diselenggarakan di Swiss-BelHotel – BALI (26-28 Juni 2024)...
Dgn materi yg mupuni & Narasumber yg kompeten...akn banyak manfaat dan keuntungan yg didpt mengikuti Pelatihan menarik ini.
Boleh jga info ini👆 utk dishare_kan lgi kpda tmn2 lain/sanak keluarga yg sekiranya membutuhkan training tsb.
Smga Bermanfaat
Thanks Ken Kanaidi
Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 Fase F Kurikulum MerdekaFathan Emran
Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 Fase E Kurikulum MerdekaFathan Emran
Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Inggris Kelas 10 SMA/MA Fase E Kurikulum Merdeka.
Universitas Negeri Jakarta banyak melahirkan tokoh pendidikan yang memiliki pengaruh didunia pendidikan. Beberapa diantaranya ada didalam file presentasi
PPT RENCANA AKSI 2 modul ajar matematika berdiferensiasi kelas 1Arumdwikinasih
Pembelajaran berdiferensiasi merupakan pembelajaran yang mengakomodasi dari semua perbedaan murid, terbuka untuk semua dan memberikan kebutuhan-kebutuhan yang dibutuhkan oleh setiap individu.kelas 1 ........
Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka - [abdiera.com]Fathan Emran
Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Bahasa Indonesia Kelas 7 SMP/MTs Fase D Kurikulum Merdeka.
Workshop "CSR & Community Development (ISO 26000)"_di BALI, 26-28 Juni 2024Kanaidi ken
Dlm wktu dekat, Pelatihan/WORKSHOP ”CSR/TJSL & Community Development (ISO 26000)” akn diselenggarakan di Swiss-BelHotel – BALI (26-28 Juni 2024)...
Dgn materi yg mupuni & Narasumber yg kompeten...akn banyak manfaat dan keuntungan yg didpt mengikuti Pelatihan menarik ini.
Boleh jga info ini👆 utk dishare_kan lgi kpda tmn2 lain/sanak keluarga yg sekiranya membutuhkan training tsb.
Smga Bermanfaat
Thanks Ken Kanaidi
Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 Fase F Kurikulum MerdekaFathan Emran
Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka - abdiera.com. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka. Modul Ajar Matematika Kelas 11 SMA/MA Fase F Kurikulum Merdeka.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
Creative operations teams expect increased AI use in 2024. Currently, over half of tasks are not AI-enabled, but this is expected to decrease in the coming year. ChatGPT is the most popular AI tool currently. Business leaders are more actively exploring AI benefits than individual contributors. Most respondents do not believe AI will impact workforce size in 2024. However, some inhibitions still exist around AI accuracy and lack of understanding. Creatives primarily want to use AI to save time on mundane tasks and boost productivity.
Organizational culture includes values, norms, systems, symbols, language, assumptions, beliefs, and habits that influence employee behaviors and how people interpret those behaviors. It is important because culture can help or hinder a company's success. Some key aspects of Netflix's culture that help it achieve results include hiring smartly so every position has stars, focusing on attitude over just aptitude, and having a strict policy against peacocks, whiners, and jerks.
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
PepsiCo provided a safe harbor statement noting that any forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and are subject to risks and uncertainties. It also provided information on non-GAAP measures and directing readers to its website for disclosure and reconciliation. The document then discussed PepsiCo's business overview, including that it is a global beverage and convenient food company with iconic brands, $91 billion in net revenue in 2023, and nearly $14 billion in core operating profit. It operates through a divisional structure with a focus on local consumers.
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
This document provides an overview of content methodology best practices. It defines content methodology as establishing objectives, KPIs, and a culture of continuous learning and iteration. An effective methodology focuses on connecting with audiences, creating optimal content, and optimizing processes. It also discusses why a methodology is needed due to the competitive landscape, proliferation of channels, and opportunities for improvement. Components of an effective methodology include defining objectives and KPIs, audience analysis, identifying opportunities, and evaluating resources. The document concludes with recommendations around creating a content plan, testing and optimizing content over 90 days.
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
The document provides guidance on preparing a job search for 2024. It discusses the state of the job market, focusing on growth in AI and healthcare but also continued layoffs. It recommends figuring out what you want to do by researching interests and skills, then conducting informational interviews. The job search should involve building a personal brand on LinkedIn, actively applying to jobs, tailoring resumes and interviews, maintaining job hunting as a habit, and continuing self-improvement. Once hired, the document advises setting new goals and keeping skills and networking active in case of future opportunities.
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
The document provides career advice for getting into the tech field, including:
- Doing projects and internships in college to build a portfolio.
- Learning about different roles and technologies through industry research.
- Contributing to open source projects to build experience and network.
- Developing a personal brand through a website and social media presence.
- Networking through events, communities, and finding a mentor.
- Practicing interviews through mock interviews and whiteboarding coding questions.
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
1. Core updates from Google periodically change how its algorithms assess and rank websites and pages. This can impact rankings through shifts in user intent, site quality issues being caught up to, world events influencing queries, and overhauls to search like the E-A-T framework.
2. There are many possible user intents beyond just transactional, navigational and informational. Identifying intent shifts is important during core updates. Sites may need to optimize for new intents through different content types and sections.
3. Responding effectively to core updates requires analyzing "before and after" data to understand changes, identifying new intents or page types, and ensuring content matches appropriate intents across video, images, knowledge graphs and more.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Time Series
1. ANALISIS VARIASI KALENDER TERHADAP DATA PENJUALAN OBLONG DEWASA
PADA TOKO GRANADA
PANDU PASA ( 1308 100 516 )
Pasa_production@yahoo.com
a. Ploting Data Volume Penjualan Oblong Dewasa Pada Toko Granada Periode 2002 – 2008
Time Series Plot of y(t)
11
3.0
2.5
11
10
2.0 11
12
10
y(t)
1.5 10
1.0 7 7 10 11
9
3 5 7 6
6 8 3 6
4 12 7 3 78 9
6 8 10 3
45 8 10 3 456 3 8 12 7 12
0.5 12
9
2
9 12 9 56 9 1 2 45 1 45 8 11
1 12 2 4
1 12 11 2
0.0
Month Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Gambar 1. Ploting Data Volume Penjualan Oblong Dewasa Pada Toko Granada Periode 2002 – 2008
Pada gambar 1 di atas, dijelaskan bahwa data volume penjualan oblong dewasa pada
took Granada periode 2002 – 2008. Pada tahun 2002, volume meningkat pada bulan 11, hal ini
di karenakan lebaran tepat pada tanggal 6 – 7 desember yang kecenderungan orang berbelanja
pada hari sebelum lebaran, sehingga karena lebaran terjadi pada awal bulan desember, maka
volume meningkat pada bulan sebelumnya. Hal tersebut bisa di jelaskan pada table sebagai
berikut :
2. Tabel 1 data tanggal lebaran dan ramalan penjualan terbesar
Lebaran Ramalan terbesar
mingg
tahun tanggal u bulan Bulan
2002 6 DAN 7 1 12 11, 12
2003 25 DAN 26 4 11 11
2004 14 DAN 15 3 11 11, 10
2005 3 DAN 4 1 11 10 , 11
2006 23 DAN 24 4 10 10
2007 12 DAN 13 2 10 10 , 9
2008 1 DAN 2 1 10 9
2009 21 DAN 22 4 9 9
pada tabel 1 di atas, ramalan penjualan terbesar pada tahun 2002 adalah pada bulan 11,
dan 12 hal ini di karenakan lebaran tepat pada tanggal 6 dan 7 desember atau awal bulan
desember sehingga orang cenderung belanja pada bulan sebelumnya. Dan untuk data laninya
bisa di lihat pada tabel 1 di atas. Karena data di atas adalah data seasonal, maka untuk
mendapatkan model yang terbaik ada beberapa metode yang dapat di gunakan, antara lain
adalah. Dekomposisi, Winter’s, ARIMA dan Regresi Dummy.
b. METODE – METODE PERMALAN ( DEKOMPOSISI, WINTER’S, ARIMA DAN REGRESI DUMMY )
Dengan menggunakan metode Dekomposisi, maka didapatkan ploting sebagai berikut :
Time Series Decomposition Plot for y(t)
Multiplicative Model
3.0 Variable Accuracy Measures
Actual MAPE 37.8413
Fits MAD 0.2151
2.5 Trend MSD 0.1455
Forecasts
2.0
y(t)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Index
3. Gambar 2. Ploting metode dekomposisi
gambar 2 di atas dapat dijelaskan bahwa dengan menggunakan metode dekomposisi, di
dapatkan nilai MAPE sebesar 37.8413, nilai MSD sebesar 0.1455. dan dapat juga di lihat hasil
forecast untuk bulan pada tahun berikutnya yang di jelaskan pada garis berwarna biru atau
gambar segitiga. Tetapi dengan menggunakan metode ini belum tentu yang terbaik dan dapat
di gunakan modelnya, karena masih ada metode lain yaitu Winter’s. berikut akan dijelaskan
dengan menggunakan metode winter’s :
Winters' Method Plot for y(t)
Multiplicative Method
5
4
3
2
1
y(t)
0
Variable
-1 Actual
Smoothing Constants A ccuracy Measures
A lpha (lev el) 0.1 MA PE 55.1579
Fits
-2 Gamma (trend) 0.1 MA D 0.2845
Forecasts
Delta (seasonal) 0.9 MSD 0.1960
95.0% PI
-3
-4
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Index
Gambar 3. Ploting metode Winter’s
Dengan menggunakan metode winter’s, di dapatkan ploting seperti pada gambar 3 di
atas. Dan dapat di jelaskan bahwa dengan menggunakan nilai alpha 0.1, gamma 0.1, delta 0.9
di dapatkan hasil MAPE sebesar 55.1579 dan MSD 0.1960. dan jika di bandingkan dengan hasil
dari metode dekomposisi dengan melihat niali MAPE dan MSD maka metode dekomposisi
masih lebih baik dari metode winter’s karena nilai MAPE dan MSD yang lebih kecil.
Selain metode Dekomposisi dan Winter’s, ada juga metode yaitu metode ARIMA,
sebelum menggunakan metode ARIMA, harus di pastikan bahwa data tersebut harus stasioner.
Untuk mendapatkan data yang stasioner maka di lakukan differencing 12, karena data volume
penjualan oblong dewasa terjadi seasonal 12 maka dilakukan differencing 12. Dan hasil plot dari
data yang di differencing 12 adalah sebagai berikut :
4. Time Series Plot of diff 12
1.0
0.5
diff 12
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Month Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Gambar 4 ploting data differencing 12
Pada gambar 4 di atas dapat di jelaskan bahwa data sudah stasioner, hal ini dapat di
jelaskan dari gambar. Sehingga sudah dapat di gunakan untuk melakukan metode ARIMA. hal
yang pertama kali di lakukan untuk melakukan metode ARIMA setelah di differencing adalah
melihat plot ACF dan PACF, hasil ACF dan PACF adalah sebagai berikut :
Autocorrelation Function for diff 12 Partial Autocorrelation Function for diff 12
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations) (with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
Partial A utocorrelation
0.4 0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
-0.2 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4
-0.6 -0.6
-0.8 -0.8
-1.0 -1.0
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Lag Lag
Gambar 5 ACF dan PACF data differencing 12 volume penjualan oblong dewasa
5. Gambar 5 adalah gambar ACF dan PACF data differencing 12 volume penjualan oblong dewasa,
dapat dijelaskan bahwa ACF cut off pada lag 1 dan PACF cut off pada lag 1 juga sehingga metode ARIMA
yang dapat di gunakan adalah AR 1 seasonal 12 atau MA 1 seasonal 12. Dan hasil dari AR 1 seasonal 12
adalah sebagai berikut :
tabel 3 hasil AR 1 ( 1 0 0 ) ( 0 1 0 )12
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 -0.3726 0.1208 -3.08 0.003
Differencing: 0 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 72, after differencing 60
Residuals: SS = 6.57968 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 0.11152 DF = 59
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 9.8 36.5 49.9 56.5
DF 11 23 35 47
P-Value 0.546 0.037 0.049 0.161
Pada AR 1 seasonal 12 didapatkan hasil bahwa AR 1 signifikan karena nilai P_value < 0.05, dan
white noise yang dapat di lihat dari nilai p_value > 0.05 dengan nilai MSE 0.11152 . untuk model MA 1 di
dapatkan hasil yang signifikan dengan nilai P_value 0.003 berarti nilai P_Value < 0.05, dan white noise
dengan nilai P_value > 0.05 dan nilai MSE sebesar 0.11061. hasil dari MA 1 dapat di lihat dari tabel 3 di
wah. sehingga dapat di simpulkan bahwa yang terbaik adalah model MA 1 atau ( 0 0 1 ) ( 0 1 0 ) 12 karena
nilai MSE yang lebih kecil dari MSE AR 1.
tabel 3 hasil MA 1 ( 0 0 1 ) ( 0 1 0 )12
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type Coef SE Coef T P
MA 1 0.3807 0.1208 3.15 0.003
Differencing: 0 regular, 1 seasonal of order 12
Number of observations: Original series 72, after differencing 60
Residuals: SS = 6.52627 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 0.11061 DF = 59
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag 12 24 36 48
Chi-Square 6.2 32.8 45.5 52.6
6. DF 11 23 35 47
P-Value 0.858 0.085 0.110 0.267
Setelah 3 metode di atas, ada 1 metode yang dapat di gunakan dalam permasalahan ini,
yaitu metode regresi Dummy, hasilnya adalah sebagai berikut :
Regression Analysis: y(t) versus M1, M2, ...
The regression equation is
y(t) = 0.845 M1 + 1.25 M2 + 1.85 M3 + 2.28 M4 + 1.44 SM1 + 0.529 SM2 + 0.716
SM3
+ 0.280 SM4 + 0.327 D1 + 0.311 D2 + 0.580 D3 + 0.437 D4 + 0.459 D5
+ 0.576 D6 + 0.681 D7 + 0.495 D8 + 0.371 D9 + 0.130 D10 + 0.343 D11
+ 0.487 D12
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Noconstant
M1 0.8453 0.1253 6.75 0.000
M2 1.2535 0.1890 6.63 0.000
M3 1.8525 0.1801 10.29 0.000
M4 2.2835 0.1367 16.71 0.000
SM1 1.4365 0.1367 10.51 0.000
SM2 0.5286 0.1731 3.05 0.004
SM3 0.7155 0.1890 3.78 0.000
SM4 0.2801 0.1306 2.14 0.037
D1 0.32717 0.06378 5.13 0.000
D2 0.31133 0.06378 4.88 0.000
D3 0.57967 0.06378 9.09 0.000
D4 0.43733 0.06378 6.86 0.000
D5 0.45933 0.06378 7.20 0.000
D6 0.57583 0.06378 9.03 0.000
D7 0.68067 0.06378 10.67 0.000
D8 0.49533 0.06378 7.77 0.000
D9 0.37139 0.07459 4.98 0.000
D10 0.1305 0.1064 1.23 0.226
D11 0.34254 0.08953 3.83 0.000
D12 0.48678 0.06711 7.25 0.000
S = 0.156234
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 20 44.2644 2.2132 90.67 0.000
Residual Error 52 1.2693 0.0244
Total 72 45.5336
Hasil regresi Dummy di atas untuk uji individu, terdapat parameter yang tidak signifikan
yaitu pada variable D10 ( warna tebal ), tetapi untuk uji parameter overall hasilnya adalah
signifikan, karena nilai P_value < 0.05 dengan nilai MSE sebesar 0.0244. karena ada yang tidak
7. signifikan, maka salat satu cara adalah di hilangkan variable tersebut. Hasil setelah variable D10
di hilangkan adalah sebagai berikut :
Regression Analysis: y(t) versus M1, M2, ...
The regression equation is
y(t) = 0.866 M1 + 1.38 M2 + 1.89 M3 + 2.37 M4 + 1.52 SM1 + 0.543 SM2 + 0.846 SM3
+ 0.353 SM4 + 0.327 D1 + 0.311 D2 + 0.580 D3 + 0.437 D4 + 0.459 D5
+ 0.576 D6 + 0.681 D7 + 0.495 D8 + 0.357 D9 + 0.305 D11 + 0.483 D12
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Noconstant
M1 0.8659 0.1248 6.94 0.000
M2 1.3840 0.1570 8.82 0.000
M3 1.8902 0.1783 10.60 0.000
M4 2.3676 0.1188 19.94 0.000
SM1 1.5206 0.1188 12.80 0.000
SM2 0.5431 0.1735 3.13 0.003
SM3 0.8460 0.1570 5.39 0.000
SM4 0.3526 0.1170 3.01 0.004
D1 0.32717 0.06408 5.11 0.000
D2 0.31133 0.06408 4.86 0.000
D3 0.57967 0.06408 9.05 0.000
D4 0.43733 0.06408 6.82 0.000
D5 0.45933 0.06408 7.17 0.000
D6 0.57583 0.06408 8.99 0.000
D7 0.68067 0.06408 10.62 0.000
D8 0.49533 0.06408 7.73 0.000
D9 0.35689 0.07400 4.82 0.000
D11 0.30476 0.08446 3.61 0.001
D12 0.48334 0.06737 7.17 0.000
S = 0.156974
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 19 44.2277 2.3278 94.47 0.000
Residual Error 53 1.3060 0.0246
Total 72 45.5336
Dan setelah di hilangkan, maka untuk uji individunya mendapatkan hasil yang signifikan
semua karena nilai P_value < 0.05, begitu juga untuk uji overall di dapatkan hasil yang signifikan
karena nilai P_value < 0.05. dengan nilai MSE sebesar 0.0246.
Setelah di lakukan pengujian dari ke empat metode di atas, maka di dapatkan hasil
perbandingan sebagai berikut :
NAMA METODE NILAI MAPE NILAI MSE / MSD
8. Dekomposisi 37.8413 0.1455
Winter’s 55.1579 0.1960
ARIMA ( 0 0 1 ) ( 0 1 0 )12 - 0.11061
Regresi Dummy - 0.0246
Dari tabel di atas dapat diketahui bahwa dari ke – 4 metode yang sudah di lakukan
pengujiannya dan di dapatkan hasil MSE / MSD serta MAPE nya di simpulkan bahwa
menggunakan regresi dummy adalah metode yang terbaik karena nilai MSE yang terkecil di
anatara ke – 4 metode yaitu sebesar 0.0246. adapun jika di bandingkan dengan hasil dari grafik
adalah sebagai berikut :
Time Series Plot of y1(t), FORE dek, FORE win, fore arima
1.4 Variable
y 1(t)
FORE dek
1.2 FORE win
fore arima
1.0
Data
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Index
Berikut adalah gambar grafik perbandingan 3 metode yaitu metode dekomposisi,
winter’s dan ARIMA. Setelah di bandingkan ke – 4 metode, maka yang terbaik adalah metode
regresi Dummy.