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What are the critical success factors for technological innovation? Why do some
technology innovations fail and some succeed in the marketplace? Is it possible to
‘predict’ what will succeed and what will fail in the future?
Contents
Introduction..............................................................................................................................2
What is Artificial Intelligence (AI).........................................................................................2
Is Artificial Intelligence innovative ........................................................................................3
The criteria of success for the innovation of Artificial Intelligence ....................................4
Evaluation of the success for Artificial Intelligence .............................................................5
The critical success factor for company that creates a technological innovation ..............8
Reference ..................................................................................................................................9

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Introduction
In a few decades, technologies have developed drastically and surrounded almost
everyone, which impacts critically on how people live in modern society. In business
term, a drastic development of technology made the life cycle of products being
shrinking constantly. As a matter of fact, in some sectors of technology industry such as
personal computers, new products come about in every couple months (Carayannis et al.,
2014). As a result, the capability of being in an innovative position and introducing new
products can bring enormous market share of sales and a competitive advantage to
company. Firstly, this paper will deal with artificial intelligence while identifying it as
innovative and then focussing on the implications of this innovation to business and
society. After that, it will examine whether it can be success or failure while discussing
what criteria of success is used for evaluating this innovation. It will then end up with
the summary of this paper.
What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Although the history of Artificial Intelligence starts at least as far as the ancient Greeks,
the actual artificial intelligence was designed by Charles Babbage in 1822, which called
“Babbage’s Difference Engine” (Hope, 2015). This is regarded as the one of the earliest
automatic calculators (Image1). Now Artificial Intelligence is totally different from what
was at 1822. According to Business Dictionary, Artificial Intelligence is defined in the
following way:
Software technologies that make a computer or robot perform equal to or better than
normal human computational ability in accuracy, capacity, and speed. Two very
different approaches rule-based systems (see expert system) and neural networks have
produced increasingly powerful applications that make complex decisions, evaluate
investment opportunities, and help in developing new products. Other uses include
robotics, human-language understanding, and computer vision.

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Artificial Intelligence can be seen everywhere in the daily life. The most outstanding
model of Artificial Intelligence for the legal market current year is Smart Apps, which is
referred to as Expert systems (Wildisen, 2015). Apart from that, Artificial Intelligence is
used in Video Games. The complexity and effectiveness of the Artificial Intelligence led
video game characters to learn customers’ behaviour and unpredictable ways. One of the
most surprising facts that Artificial Intelligence achieved in game field was AI software
for playing chess “Deep Blue” won the world champion Garry Kasparov (Arbuckle,
2016). Moreover, Artificial Intelligence system is applied for Music and Movie
recommendation service. It accomplishes the recommendation task by monitoring the
selection that customers make and preserving that data in a learning algorithm.
Is Artificial Intelligence innovative
Artificial Intelligence has brought many impacts on a number of industries. In addition,
Artificial Intelligence seems to continue influencing on the societies and industries. The
latest book that was written by Richard Susskind, “The Future of the Professions” (2015),
stated that professional services such as accountants, teachers and doctors will be
interacted with in an internet society, which would be developed by Artificial
Intelligence. In other words, the development of Artificial Intelligence may lead to the
significant change in the structure of society. Based on the facts mentioned above,
Artificial Intelligence can be regarded as innovation. However, even though Artificial
Intelligence brought many changes to society, it does not necessarily mean that it is

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innovative. According to the definition of innovation provided by Chason. M, something
innovative moves one step further and requires to take an inventive acts. At the same
time, innovation should be the one which produces a positive outcome from the
inventive acts. Therefore, actions which result in a negative performance would not be
regarded as innovative, even if they passed the requirements of novelty and permissive
actions. When looking at other definitions of innovation on the other hand, Artificial
intelligence can be considered as innovative. For instance, Rowe mentioned that
something new to business that meets the need of an initial customers is innovation, and
it ideally creates a new market. Also, Fernandes stated that innovation is introducing
new value and seizing value in a new way (Innovation Tools.com, 2015). It is hard to
say Artificial Intelligence is innovative according to the perspective of Chason because it
is almost impossible to predict whether the change brought from Artificial will lead to
positive outcomes. However, it can be said that Artificial Intelligence is innovative when
considering of the impacts that have been brought since Artificial Intelligence was
invented.
The criteria of success for the innovation of Artificial Intelligence
The criteria of whether Artificial Intelligence will be developed based on the definition
of March Chason (mentioned in previous paragraph). He mentioned that innovation
should provide the positive outcomes by inventive actions. This can be applied as the
criteria of Artificial Intelligence’s success. For example, the future development of
Artificial Intelligence leads to the positive outcomes, which can be said that Artificial
Intelligence would be successful. On the other hands, Artificial intelligence will bring
negative results, which can be defined as failure. However, before moving to the
analysis of whether Artificial Intelligence will be succeeded or failure, it needs to define
what positive outcome is. According to the Cambridge Dictionaries Online, the
definition of positive “full of hope and confidence, or giving cause for hope and
confidence”. Base on the definition, the criteria that will be used for analysing the
success for Artificial Intelligence is whether Artificial intelligence can have a
potentiality of providing the cause for hope and confidence to the society by inventive
act.

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Evaluation of the success for Artificial Intelligence
Since Artificial Intelligence is applied for a number of industries (Figure 1), it is hard to
say that in all industries, Artificial Intelligence results in the success. However, in terms
of business environment, Artificial Intelligence will be successful with high level of
possibility. According to the theory “Diffusion of Innovation” (Figure 2), population or
social network can be divided into five segments, for any given innovation. When
customers (Early Adopter) access the product, then go beyond tipping point, which is
between 15 and 18%, it leads to the attraction of the rest of people (Simon, 2011). As a
matter of fact (Figure 3), the number of business related to Artificial Intelligence has
increased drastically since 2010. Therefore, Products of Artificial Intelligence can be
able to go beyond this tipping point and bring many impacts on society. Moreover, the
other measurement “Gartner Hype Cycle” (Figure 4) showed that some products of
Artificial Intelligence were on the Innovation Trigger while others were between Peak of
Inflated Expectations and Trough of Disillusionment, which means that Artificial
Intelligence would continue to be successful from the business perspective (McLellan,
2015). However, it is also mentioned that the arrival of many future products of
Artificial Intelligence can replace human being, which can result in the increase of
unemployment (Healthcare Articles and Infographics, 2014). In fact, the report
published in 2015 by Forrester revealed that the development of automation will result
in the loss of 9.1 million jobs in the US by 2025. Generally, rise of unemployment rate
leads to the loss of hope and confidence, which means that Artificial Intelligence can
provide negative outcomes to society. Considering of both side, if Artificial Intelligence
will increase the rate of unemployment, it can be regarded as failure although it can be
considered as successful innovation technologically.

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The critical success factor for company that creates a technological
innovation
In this paragraph, Apple will be analysed for identifying the critical factors that might be
needed when creating a technological innovation. Apple is the one of the most famous
companies that are developing Artificial Intelligence. In fact, Artificial Intelligence
Industry is being dominated by some famous companies such as Apple, Google and
Microsoft (Reisinger, 2015). According to the book “Start with Why” written by Simon
Sinek in 2011, the companies that have been successful have a tendency in terms of
business strategy, which was called “Golden Circle”(Image 2). Golden Circle provided
the insight why some companies have made such an outstanding level of influence on
market. Only few companies take an action from the outside in, in other words, from
what to why. In his explanation, Apple was used as a sampling company of
implementing Golden Circle strategy. Additionally, the study of Michelene and Kurt
(2009) revealed that the workers who regularly ask themselves “why” and then explain
that question to themselves tend to have the highest quality insight. This habit supports
workers to fill the gaps in their insight, which leads to the increase of chance creating a
innovation (Markman, 2014).

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In conclusion (whether it is possible to predict what will be a success or failure)
Based on the analysis of Artificial Intelligence, it can be said that it is hard to anticipate
exactly what will happen to the future. However, Gartner Hype Cycle can be a criterion
that helps making better decision in terms of which technological product companies
should invest on. Then, Diffusion of innovation theory can be a supportive tool to
evaluate the level of the adoption toward new innovative products. This measurement
can apply for selecting and changing the business strategy depending on which level the
products are located at. Finally, Golden Circle can be used for analysing which
companies can be innovative in the future. With these theories may help, it is possible to
avoid the future risks or prepare for the risks that would cause the trouble in the future.
Reference
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