The document discusses three major trends or "tsunamis" that will impact research and development in the future: 1) technological exponentials referring to accelerating change in technologies like computing power, 2) global demographics related to population growth and shifts toward younger populations in developing countries, and 3) climate change and the challenges of reducing carbon emissions. It calls for research organizations to understand how these trends could impact their work and to begin planning for the future research environment in 2025.

1. The Three Tsunamis Rich Antcliff Chief Technologist NASA Langley Research Center May 7, 2007 AD The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide The future ain’t what it used to be… Yogi Berra

2. Waves crashing in the distance . . . The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Technological Exponentials Global Demographics Climate Change

3. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

4. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Kurtzweil, 2005

5. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Kurtzweil, 2005

6. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Kurtzweil, 2005

7. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Kurtzweil, 2005

8. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Kurtzweil, 2005

9. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Nanobearings:

10. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Gathering data from multiple studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael D. Mauk, and their colleagues at the University of Texas Medical School devised a detailed bottom-up simulation of the cerebellum. Their simulation includes over 10,000 simulated neurons and 300,000 synapses, and includes all of the principal types of cerebellum cells. The Cerebellum

11. Technological Exponentials The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Lily pads can grow fast. Imagine that you discover a variety of lily pads that can double in number every day. It takes 10 days for them grow to cover a pond halfway. How many days will it take to completely cover the pond?

12. Waves crashing in the nearby. . . The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Technological Exponentials Global Demographics Climate Change

13. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

14. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide 28.5% Rest of World 45.4% 4.0% Source: World Bank 2005 11.1% 6.6% shares aggregate GDP

15. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Germany 2000 0 50000 25 000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US China India Japan GDP ’03US$bn Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99

16. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide US Census Bureau International Database

17. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

18. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

19. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Engineering Graduates: United States - 70,000 All of Europe - 100,000 India - 450,000 China - 700,000 2005 data “ ..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT! http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm

20. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

21. Global Demographics The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Those who ignore demographics will do so at their own peril - author unknown

22. Waves crashing at home . . The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Technological Exponentials Global Demographics Climate Change

23. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

24. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

25. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide CO 2

26. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Boulder Glacier, Washington State

27. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Berrien Moore

28. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Berrien Moore

29. Climate Change The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

30. The Three Tsunamis The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Technological Exponentials What does it mean to be human? What will be “robotic”? Who will do research? Global Demographics Where is the research done? Who owns the IP? What is the organization? Climate Change What will be the focus of our research? What energy will we use? How will we live?

31. The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide or

32. Why? The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide Technological exponentials Global Demographics Climate Change What will the R&D “Lab” look like in 2025? What will R&D look like in 2025? Should we think about this now? Would we make different decision now, if we knew?

33. What? Understand the future context Investigation and integration of the future studies relevant to R&D Assessing the impact on R&D ‘Labs” What is the current progress? What is the delta? Workshop, survey, interview? Educate Publication Member centered learning The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide

34. Who? Co-chairs: Rich Antcliff (NASA), Erik Whalen-Pedersen (Kraft) Others Mike Schwenk (PNNL), Johann Venter (Champion Tech), Raju Borwankar (Kraft), Robert Williams (Boeing), Feng Niu (Motorola), Silvia Urbe-Saucedo (Kellogg), Charlene Miraglia (Praxair), Michelle Kane (Praxair), Martha Collins (Air Products), Players to be named later ( You! ) Center for Innovative Management Studies The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff May 7, 2007, Slide