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Way forward
The document discusses several high priorities needed to move forward, including a sound economy, cheap and plentiful energy, sufficient materials, and an end to aging. It notes the economic realities of high debt levels, lower tax revenues, aging demographics, and governments overpromising on entitlement programs. Thorium reactors, anti-aging research, asteroid mining, and continued technological progress are proposed as ways to address energy, materials, and aging issues. Economic changes like balanced budgets, entitlement reforms, and incentives for business are also suggested.
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Way forward
- 1. What is mostneeded? Thoughts on a way forward.
- 2. Immediate high priorities •Sound economy • Innovation and reasonable security require this • Cheap plentiful energy • Economic health, standard of living and level of innovation are all tied to this • Food production is tied to energy • Distribution • Most of our dreams require lots of cheap energy • Sufficient materials • Enough to raise everyone’s standard of living • End to aging • Aging demographics are brutal
- 3. Context is important •Economics – Where are we? – What is and isn’t doable? • Politics – What is ideal vs what is doable? – Do we wait for a collapse? • Could we survive one? • Energy – What would solve the problem within a decade? • Is that doable?
- 4. Economic Reality • Worlddrowning in debt – Not just the western world • Japan in debt 200% of GDP. China printing money like mad. – Entitlements being cut with strikes and riots likely • Lower tax revenues – Due to levels of unemployment and economic uncertainty hitting investments • Aging demographics – Lower tax revenues and more hit on government medical programs • Many governments promised much too much – Could only have been paid for by constantly accelerating economic growth.
- 5. Energy Crisis • PeakOil – No immediate replacement, especially in transportation • Green alternatives not competitive yet – Not immediate solutions • Nuclear is viable – But much red tape, lack of significant funding for new reactor types – Thorium is a solution • Energy wars already started • Impact on food
- 6. Thorium Positives • Abundant – 10,000+ year supply • No costly or time-intensive refining • Waste becomes inert in ~100 years – Instead of 100,000! • Power generation significantly cheaper than U based plants – Actually some designs generate electricity cheaper than from coal!
- 7. Materials & Resources •Water – Good desalinization has energy and material dependencies. – Transportation dependencies. • Food – Direct dependencies on energy, transportation and many chemicals derived from oil – Water dependency • Precious metals – Many important to high tech products and to batteries • Commodity metals – Prices of most are rising • Demand is increasing • Easy sources becoming depleted • Extra costs on mining
- 8. Aging • 25% -40% of population over 65 – Depending on country • Most healthcare cost are post 65 • > 80 year old segment growing rapidly • Soon only two or three workers per retired person – At best • Ways this will resolve: – Curing and/or greatly postponing aging – Economic collapse and/or war leading to mass die off – All the aged die especially as the government programs stop functioning through utterly impossible to pay costs • Likely taking the countries with them
- 9. Tools for change •Technology – Economic dependency – Political dependency – New inventions and applications are crucial • The old ways have been worked to near end of life • Politics – Political advocacy – Keeping too much government from killing off future – Freedom enough to innovate and seek alternatives • Priority acknowledgement – Wide understanding of what is important and why • Private investing, Foundations, enterprise – Especially as government can fund less and less.
- 10. Politics • Environment ofEntitlement • Low understanding of freedom • Government involved in more by the day – Unprecedented government power – Much over spending, waste and obstruction of progress • Realistically we probably have to lobby for what we want to see – Low possibility of surviving political process – Lobbying for freedom to act may be more effective.
- 11. So What CanWe Do? • Raise lots of awareness? • Funding Foundation? – Gather lots of private funds from everyone, not just the rich. • How many of the super tech parts are mostly matter of funding? – Some have much fundamental science left which is not all that amenable to just lots of cash – the money may need to be there for a while to attract a new generation of researchers (which implies it takes more time than we may have) • Build high tech intentional communities to preserve what we value and wait out the storm? • Do everything each of us can with our own skills. • Collaborate where we can. • All of the above? • More?
- 12. Immediate technology topush for • Much better solar, especially thin film • Best reactor designs – Molten salt thorium reactor • Anti-aging R & D – Increased improvements in medicine – Streamlining new drug/treatment time to market • Exploitation of near earth asteroids – Materials, opening frontier, space based solar • Continued computational and communication improvement • Wide dissemination of technology and knowledge
- 13. Economic Change topush for • Mandatory balanced budgets as quickly as possible – But keeping tax within range that maximizes income without crippling innovation or economy • Moratorium on entitlements • Getting government out of many things – All those that are not by their nature arguably best done by government or allowed by their charters • Incentives for crucial projects – In today’s environment these include tax credits and government investments • Incentives for creating businesses and hiring people – Including removing artificial red tape and limitations • Creation of Foundations for creating viable future – Taking donations from anyone who wishes and putting the money to much needed projects • Making retraining and reinventing yourself easier • Getting beyond the notion that plenty is our due without working for it
- 14. Pushing the AgingButton • Make very clear to politicians that this is a fast approaching crisis – And that it is not ok to just let all the over 65 folks sicken and die especially with failure of programs – Show them that investing in anti-aging with Manhattan project size effort makes great political, humanitarian and economic sense. – Herd the boomers to push this goal hard • Shouldn’t be difficult considering average age of politicians
Editor's Notes
- #12 We can raise awareness of all these wonderful possibilities. But won’t that be a lot harder to sell when more and more people wonder where there rent and food is going to come from? Some say that a great hope and vision is actually easier to sell at such times. I am not sure of this. Assuming we can raise that kind of awareness don’t we also want to raise awareness of the problems? The problems after all are a large part of why these solutions truly are urgent and not just “nice to have some day when automatic accelerating change brings them”. Assuming the R&D must be done privately can we establish some kind of Foundation that can be contributed to by everyone of any means that allow the to at all? Can we make it so it benefits and thus we benefit by its successes and so that many many important initiatives that may be long term get and stay funded? Some initiatives are open to donations now but on a more piecemeal basis. Many are not set up to receive public funding but likely can receive Foundation grants. One problem may be that much basic science is needed that doesn’t happen just by adding money. It may be needed to train and focus a new generation of researchers to make much difference. If we can’t make the tech go faster or fast enough then what? What if we can’t avoid or slow down a real collapse or much too close enough collapse? Perhaps we who hold the dream fast should establish intentional communities to better ensure that we ourselves and more importantly the dream and the values survive. Our communities can enable us to be much more resilient if they can be done well and to preserve much knowledge if the worse should ensue. What can we, should we do and what will we do as individuals? We much do all we can with what skills we possess or can acquire for these values we hold so dear. We must learn to collaborate and work together if we are to reach that future we dream of or make it any more likely that those that follow us can reach it.