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There Will Be Cyberwar
Richard Stiennon
Chief Research Analyst
IT-Harvest
twitter.com/cyberwar
twitter.com/cyberwar
http://www.amazon.com/There-Will-Be-Cyberwar-Network-Centric/dp/0985460784
The Revolution in Military Affairs
• Roman centuries
• Long bow and battle of Crecy
• Napoleon’s staff command
• Machine guns
• Mechanized armor, blitzkrieg
The Modern RMA
• Operation Desert
Storm leads to:
• Russian assessment
of precision weapons
ISR, C&C as force
multiplier, which leads
to
• Andrew Marshall
IT-Harvest Confidential
Andrew Marshall: Enigmatic
Strategist
Andrew W. Marshall (born September 13, 1921) just retired
director of the United States Department of Defense's Office of
Net Assessment.
1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis
"Admiral Clemens was able to use e-mail, a very graphic-
rich environment, and video teleconferencing to
achieve the effect he wanted", which was to deploy the
carrier battle groups in a matter of hours instead of
days.” -Arthur Cebrowski
USS Nimitz and
USS Independence deploy
to Taiwan.
Admiral Archie Clemins
Father of Network Centric Warfare
Clemins’ Apple Powerbook 160
9.8 inch greyscale
LCD Display
Up to 14 MB RAM
(smaller than this
slide deck)
40MB SCSI Hard Disk
Drive
8 pounds
USS Blue Ridge command ship of the US Navy 7th Fleet
A Lasting Legacy
Same Inmarsat satellite constellation still in use
N21 initiative launched
Pentagon Office of Force Transformation led by Arthur
Cebrowski
Arthur Cebrowski: Evangelist
“Network Centric
Warfare should be the
cornerstone of
transformation. If you
are not interoperable
you are not on the net.
You are not benefiting
from the information
age”.
The NCW Dream
Total Situational Awareness eliminates “the fog of war”
Red Team - Blue Team identification
Central Command and Control. Distributed battle command.
(The Global Information Grid, or GIG)
Networked Intelligence, Surveillance Reconnaissance (ISR)
-a sensor grid
IT-Harvest Confidential
Network Centric Warfare
Everything connected (like the Internet)
Satellite-Planes-Drones-Ground-Sea based sensor grid
Instant communication over a Global Grid
14
Deja vu all over again
We’ve seen this story payed out before in the enterprise.
First, network everything. Take advantage of connectivity and u
Second: succumb to attacks from hackers, cyber criminals, hac
Finally: Layer in security
15
How the Military Failed in Security
April 1, 2001 a Navy EP-3E was forced down and
captured by China. Top secret OS compromised
In 2008 China blatantly flooded communication
channels known to be monitored by the NSA with
decrypted US intercepts, kicking off a major re-
deployment. SEVEN years too late.
16
How the Military Failed in Security
First, the Pentagon email
servers p0wned 2007
Then terabytes of data
exfiltrated to China from
the Defense Industrial
Base. The target? Joint
Strike Fighter design
data.
17
Military IT Security Failures
The Wake Up Call
BUCKSHOT YANKEE
Agent.btz introduced via thumb drive in a forward operations co
EVERY Windows machine re-imaged in the entire military (3 mi
18
Drone madness 1
19
Drone madness 2
20
Drone madness 3
IT-Harvest Confidential
SATCOM Vulns
• “We uncovered
what would
appear to be
multiple
backdoors,
hardcoded
credentials,
undocumented
and/or insecure
protocols, and
weak encryption
algorithms.” -
IOActive
Software Assurance maturity came after most new
weapons platforms were sourced.
One Air Force study of 3 million lines of code revealed:
One software vulnerability per 8 lines of code
One high vulnerability per 31 lines of code
One critical vulnerability for 70 lines of code
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
“JSF software development is one
of the largest and most complex
projects in DOD history.”
-Michael J. Sullivan, Director
Acquisition and Sourcing
Management for the DoD:
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
• Nine million lines of onboard code
could mean 128,000 critical vulns
• 15 million lines of logistics code
could mean another 214,000
critical vulns
• What could possibly go wrong?
Taiwan Straits Crisis. 2018?
GPS hacks deflect jets
away from tankers
Mission tasking
subverted
Communications
intercepts mislead
commander
Radar jamming masks
enemy movement
Result? Military
defeat
A Working Definition of Cyberwar
The use of network and computer attack to s
IT-Harvest Confidential
Cyber Pearl Harbor Defined
An overwhelming defeat of US forces due to
enemy information dominance.
IT-Harvest Confidential
email: richard@it-harvest.com
Twitter: twitter.com/cyberwar

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There WIll Be Cyberwar

  • 1. There Will Be Cyberwar Richard Stiennon Chief Research Analyst IT-Harvest twitter.com/cyberwar
  • 3. The Revolution in Military Affairs • Roman centuries • Long bow and battle of Crecy • Napoleon’s staff command • Machine guns • Mechanized armor, blitzkrieg
  • 4. The Modern RMA • Operation Desert Storm leads to: • Russian assessment of precision weapons ISR, C&C as force multiplier, which leads to • Andrew Marshall
  • 5. IT-Harvest Confidential Andrew Marshall: Enigmatic Strategist Andrew W. Marshall (born September 13, 1921) just retired director of the United States Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment.
  • 6. 1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis "Admiral Clemens was able to use e-mail, a very graphic- rich environment, and video teleconferencing to achieve the effect he wanted", which was to deploy the carrier battle groups in a matter of hours instead of days.” -Arthur Cebrowski USS Nimitz and USS Independence deploy to Taiwan.
  • 7. Admiral Archie Clemins Father of Network Centric Warfare
  • 8. Clemins’ Apple Powerbook 160 9.8 inch greyscale LCD Display Up to 14 MB RAM (smaller than this slide deck) 40MB SCSI Hard Disk Drive 8 pounds
  • 9. USS Blue Ridge command ship of the US Navy 7th Fleet
  • 10. A Lasting Legacy Same Inmarsat satellite constellation still in use N21 initiative launched Pentagon Office of Force Transformation led by Arthur Cebrowski
  • 11. Arthur Cebrowski: Evangelist “Network Centric Warfare should be the cornerstone of transformation. If you are not interoperable you are not on the net. You are not benefiting from the information age”.
  • 12. The NCW Dream Total Situational Awareness eliminates “the fog of war” Red Team - Blue Team identification Central Command and Control. Distributed battle command. (The Global Information Grid, or GIG) Networked Intelligence, Surveillance Reconnaissance (ISR) -a sensor grid
  • 13. IT-Harvest Confidential Network Centric Warfare Everything connected (like the Internet) Satellite-Planes-Drones-Ground-Sea based sensor grid Instant communication over a Global Grid
  • 14. 14 Deja vu all over again We’ve seen this story payed out before in the enterprise. First, network everything. Take advantage of connectivity and u Second: succumb to attacks from hackers, cyber criminals, hac Finally: Layer in security
  • 15. 15 How the Military Failed in Security April 1, 2001 a Navy EP-3E was forced down and captured by China. Top secret OS compromised In 2008 China blatantly flooded communication channels known to be monitored by the NSA with decrypted US intercepts, kicking off a major re- deployment. SEVEN years too late.
  • 16. 16 How the Military Failed in Security First, the Pentagon email servers p0wned 2007 Then terabytes of data exfiltrated to China from the Defense Industrial Base. The target? Joint Strike Fighter design data.
  • 17. 17 Military IT Security Failures The Wake Up Call BUCKSHOT YANKEE Agent.btz introduced via thumb drive in a forward operations co EVERY Windows machine re-imaged in the entire military (3 mi
  • 21. IT-Harvest Confidential SATCOM Vulns • “We uncovered what would appear to be multiple backdoors, hardcoded credentials, undocumented and/or insecure protocols, and weak encryption algorithms.” - IOActive
  • 22. Software Assurance maturity came after most new weapons platforms were sourced. One Air Force study of 3 million lines of code revealed: One software vulnerability per 8 lines of code One high vulnerability per 31 lines of code One critical vulnerability for 70 lines of code
  • 23. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter “JSF software development is one of the largest and most complex projects in DOD history.” -Michael J. Sullivan, Director Acquisition and Sourcing Management for the DoD:
  • 24. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter • Nine million lines of onboard code could mean 128,000 critical vulns • 15 million lines of logistics code could mean another 214,000 critical vulns • What could possibly go wrong?
  • 25. Taiwan Straits Crisis. 2018? GPS hacks deflect jets away from tankers Mission tasking subverted Communications intercepts mislead commander Radar jamming masks enemy movement Result? Military defeat
  • 26. A Working Definition of Cyberwar The use of network and computer attack to s
  • 27. IT-Harvest Confidential Cyber Pearl Harbor Defined An overwhelming defeat of US forces due to enemy information dominance.

Editor's Notes

  1. CNN) -- A U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane made an emergency landing in China after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet sent to intercept it, U.S. officials said Sunday. The EP-3 Aries, an electronic surveillance aircraft with a crew of 24, landed on the Chinese island of Hainan after the collision, said Lt. Col. Dewey Ford, a spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii. None of the crew was injured, he said. Chinese officials had no immediate comment on the incident. That history dates back to the 1996 presidential election on Taiwan, when Chinese hackers took aim at Taiwan sites. They repeated their attacks during the 2000 elections, but Taiwan threatened to unleash 7,000 viruses on Chinese government sites if the attacks continued. They ended.
  2. CNN) -- A U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane made an emergency landing in China after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet sent to intercept it, U.S. officials said Sunday. The EP-3 Aries, an electronic surveillance aircraft with a crew of 24, landed on the Chinese island of Hainan after the collision, said Lt. Col. Dewey Ford, a spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii. None of the crew was injured, he said. Chinese officials had no immediate comment on the incident. That history dates back to the 1996 presidential election on Taiwan, when Chinese hackers took aim at Taiwan sites. They repeated their attacks during the 2000 elections, but Taiwan threatened to unleash 7,000 viruses on Chinese government sites if the attacks continued. They ended.
  3. 20 million Ids including SSN stolen by the insider, Rene Rebollo, Wahid Siddiqi, 25,was a senior financial analyst at Full Spectrum Lending, Countrywide's subprime lending division. The FBI's statement alleges Rebollo was taking the personal information of mortgage customers, including social security numbers, storing them on a USB thumb drive. Rebollo told the law enforcement he profited anywhere from $50,000 to $70,000 from the sale of the Countrywide-owned data. In an FBI affidavit Rebollo estimated he downloaded about 20,000 customer profiles a week in excel spreadsheets onto the flash drives and then took the spreadsheets and emailed them to buyers from business center stores.