U.S. National Security
 ... AND THE RISING CHINESE THREAT




               Elias Lopez
Rising Threats
• Measuring the Size of
  China’s Economy
• Purchasing Power & GDP
  Size
• Implications for China
  and U.S. – China
  Economic Ties
• U.S. – Chinese
  Economies: Will China
  overtake the U.S.
  Economy?
• Chinese Takeovers of
  U.S. Companies
COMPREHENSIVE   • Modernization preparing for conflict in
                   Taiwan Straight, including possibility of U.S.
TRANSFORMATION     intervention



                 • Enhancing China’s Strategic Strike Capabilities
NUCLEAR FORCE
MODERNIZATION
                 • Anti-access/Area Denial Capabilities                 Video No Longer
                 • Direct-ascent Anti-Satellite weapon
                                                                           Functional

BALLISTIC AND    • Advanced Technology Acquisition
   CRUISE        • Land attack, Supersonic – Anti-ship, & guided
                   missile destroyers
  MISSILES
                                                                     THE PEOPLES LIBERATION
                 • PRC Computer Network Intrusions                           ARMY
CYBERWARFARE     • Gathering political, military, corporate-
 CAPABILITIES      strategic & scientific information to close
                   technological gaps



  ADVANCED       • ICE Initiated 400 + Investigations between
                   2000 – 2006 for illicit export of arms and
TECHNOLOGIES       technologies
ACQUISITIONS     • ICE Identified PRC as leading espionage threat
Nuclear and Missile Technology Sales


       Chemical Sales to Iran


 North Korea’s Missile and Nuclear
        Weapons Program
11 JANUARY 2007: 5:25PM EST
Increase Risk to
PRC Intentional
                       Increased Space     U.S. Satellites &
   Satellite
                         Debris in LEO         over 700
 Destruction
                                             Spacecrafts

                          Tracking &        DoD Est. by 2010
                           Targeting        ASAT production
Capability to attack
                        Capabilities by      able to destroy
  U.S. satellites
                        Military & Intel   most U.S. satellites
                           Satellites            in LEO


    Develop                                 Unilateral
                          Satellite
     Stealth                               Agreement to
                          Defense
    Satellite                                 Space
                          Systems
   Technology                              Weaponization
POSSIBLE “SELF CONFIDENCE” TEST
• Countering U.S. Forces in possible Taiwan dispute
• Weapons challenge U.S. Space Dominance




2006 U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY RESPONSE
• Denial of space to adversaries “hostile” to U.S. Interests
• Before U.S. Space Policy PRC conducted 3 ASAT test and ground based
  laser to illuminate a U.S. satellite in “blinding” tests



PRODING THE UNITED STATES IN ARMS CONTROL?
• Analysts cited PRC’s “peaceful motive was to prompt U.S. to engage in
  space arms control
• In Dec 2006, U.S. solely voted against UN Res. on “Prevention of Arms
  Race In Outer Space” - PAROS
Sovereignty Over Taiwan


PRC Use of Force Against Taiwan


Democracy versus Independence
Economic Security

 WMD Proliferation

Rising Military Power

Anti-Satellite Weapons

China – U.S. Relations

  One China Policy
Questions?

The rising chinese threat

  • 2.
    U.S. National Security ... AND THE RISING CHINESE THREAT Elias Lopez
  • 3.
  • 4.
    • Measuring theSize of China’s Economy • Purchasing Power & GDP Size • Implications for China and U.S. – China Economic Ties • U.S. – Chinese Economies: Will China overtake the U.S. Economy? • Chinese Takeovers of U.S. Companies
  • 5.
    COMPREHENSIVE • Modernization preparing for conflict in Taiwan Straight, including possibility of U.S. TRANSFORMATION intervention • Enhancing China’s Strategic Strike Capabilities NUCLEAR FORCE MODERNIZATION • Anti-access/Area Denial Capabilities Video No Longer • Direct-ascent Anti-Satellite weapon Functional BALLISTIC AND • Advanced Technology Acquisition CRUISE • Land attack, Supersonic – Anti-ship, & guided missile destroyers MISSILES THE PEOPLES LIBERATION • PRC Computer Network Intrusions ARMY CYBERWARFARE • Gathering political, military, corporate- CAPABILITIES strategic & scientific information to close technological gaps ADVANCED • ICE Initiated 400 + Investigations between 2000 – 2006 for illicit export of arms and TECHNOLOGIES technologies ACQUISITIONS • ICE Identified PRC as leading espionage threat
  • 6.
    Nuclear and MissileTechnology Sales Chemical Sales to Iran North Korea’s Missile and Nuclear Weapons Program
  • 7.
    11 JANUARY 2007:5:25PM EST
  • 8.
    Increase Risk to PRCIntentional Increased Space U.S. Satellites & Satellite Debris in LEO over 700 Destruction Spacecrafts Tracking & DoD Est. by 2010 Targeting ASAT production Capability to attack Capabilities by able to destroy U.S. satellites Military & Intel most U.S. satellites Satellites in LEO Develop Unilateral Satellite Stealth Agreement to Defense Satellite Space Systems Technology Weaponization
  • 9.
    POSSIBLE “SELF CONFIDENCE”TEST • Countering U.S. Forces in possible Taiwan dispute • Weapons challenge U.S. Space Dominance 2006 U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY RESPONSE • Denial of space to adversaries “hostile” to U.S. Interests • Before U.S. Space Policy PRC conducted 3 ASAT test and ground based laser to illuminate a U.S. satellite in “blinding” tests PRODING THE UNITED STATES IN ARMS CONTROL? • Analysts cited PRC’s “peaceful motive was to prompt U.S. to engage in space arms control • In Dec 2006, U.S. solely voted against UN Res. on “Prevention of Arms Race In Outer Space” - PAROS
  • 10.
    Sovereignty Over Taiwan PRCUse of Force Against Taiwan Democracy versus Independence
  • 11.
    Economic Security WMDProliferation Rising Military Power Anti-Satellite Weapons China – U.S. Relations One China Policy
  • 12.