The weekly market report provided the following information:
- Equity markets were up 2.7% last week but key upcoming economic data will determine short-term market direction.
- Earnings growth is expected to slow to around 10% while specific companies like Infosys and HDFC are forecasted to report earnings growth of over 15% and 20% respectively.
- India's food inflation declined to a 6-year low and other economic indicators like IIP and trade deficit figures are expected to be released this week.
Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
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Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
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RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
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2. Equity View:
CY 12 started on a positive note as the markets were up by 2.7% last week. Key data coming this week will determine the
short term direction of the market.
The earning season will start shortly; we expect a slowdown in earnings growth by around 10%. Infosys will come up with
th
its results on 12 Jan. We are expecting Q-O-Q growth in volumes of about 3.5% on back of 8% depreciation in rupee in
th
this quarter; profit growth expected to be in excess of 15%. HDFC will announce its result on 12 Jan, 20% profit growth
is expected for bank. The net-interest margins are expected to remain flattish and the lending growth is expected to be in
excess of 28%.
th
IIP date will be released for the month of November on 12 January. IIP for the month of October had moved in to
negative territory at around -5%. We expect November to be positive with IIP figure of around 2.3%. Food inflation has
dipped significantly in the past 3 to 4 weeks. We now have the food inflation figures coming in at -3.36% which is a 6 year
low largely, because of very high base effect last year.
Globally, the earnings season is starting in the US. We are expecting around 8% earnings growth in S&P 500 Companies.
Last week, we saw a quick development of crude prices on the back of the renewed tension between US and Iran amid
threat to block one of the key routes of oil Shipments by Iran. The situation seems to have stabilized now, however we
are cautious on this front.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
India's food inflation eased to -3.36% in the year to December 24, from an annual 0.42% rise in the previous
week.
India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $296.688 billion as of December 30, down from $300.863 billion in
the previous week.
India's November exports rose an annual 3.87% to $22.3 billion, while imports for the month rose 24.55% to
$35.9 billion. India's trade deficit in November was at $13.6 billion.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
Yields on French long-term OAT bonds rose on Thursday at its first auction of the year as the threat of a cut to
the country's AAA credit rating prompted investors to demand higher returns for buying the bonds.
Euro zone inflation eased to 2.8% from last year's 3% in December, the first sign of a fall in price growth this
year that analysts expect will create room for more interest rate cuts to help the weakening economy.
A 50 percent write-down on Greek debt holdings, part of Greece's debt swap deal, is not enough to put the
country's huge debt on a viable footing, an adviser to Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a
Greek newspaper.
US
U.S. employment growth accelerated last month and the jobless rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.5
percent, the strongest evidence yet the economic recovery is gaining steam.
Three top Federal Reserve officials aggressively pushed on Friday for more stimulus for the U.S. housing
market, saying the government should be looking at ways to help the sector in order to speed the economic
recovery.
3. Swapnil Pawar Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal
Palak Nanjani Abbas Naheed Kanika Khorana
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