Does it feel like the world has recently become much less certain and predictable? We tend to expect that each day will be like the last, more or less, but incremental change is increasingly feeling like a thing of the past. In this talk for the 2018 Scientia EMEA User Conference I look at how we can read the signals around us to better predict the future, and consider the impact of technologies and trends like blockchain, artificial intelligence and Brexit on further and higher education

1. The wind from nowhere
Martin Hamilton
1The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

2. The wind from nowhere
1. We were promised jet packs…
2. What did your AI make today?
3. The road to Mars
15/03/2018 The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18 2

3. About Jisc
» Not-for-profit company serving the HE, FE and skills
community:
› 18 million users of shared services like Janet, eduroam
and JiscMail
› Devising national deals with IT vendors and
› Providing advice & guidance to the sector on digital
technologies in research and education
» My role:
› Leading a small group exploring emerging technologies
like Augmented Reality and brain computer interfaces
› Helping institutions to devise and implement their digital
strategies
› Helping build the evidence base for new techniques and
technologies in research and education
3The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

4. About Jisc
» Not-for-profit company serving the HE, FE and skills
community:
› 18 million users of shared services like Janet, eduroam
and JiscMail
› Devising national deals with IT vendors and
› Providing advice & guidance to the sector on digital
technologies in research and education
» My role:
› Leading a small group exploring emerging technologies
like Augmented Reality and brain computer interfaces
› Helping institutions to devise and implement their digital
strategies
› Helping build the evidence base for new techniques and
technologies in research and education
4The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

5. About Jisc
» Not-for-profit company serving the HE, FE and skills
community:
› 18 million users of shared services like Janet, eduroam
and JiscMail
› Devising national deals with IT vendors and
› Providing advice & guidance to the sector on digital
technologies in research and education
» My role:
› Leading a small group exploring emerging technologies
like Augmented Reality and brain computer interfaces
› Helping institutions to devise and implement their digital
strategies
› Helping build the evidence base for new techniques and
technologies in research and education
5The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

6. 1. We were promised jet packs…
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 6

7. We were promised jet packs…
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 7

8. We were promised jet packs…
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 8

9. We were promised jet packs…
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 9

10. The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
Data vandalism
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11. Data vandalism
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12. Radical librarians
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13. Radical librarians
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14. The road to Mars
14The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
SpaceX first stage booster landing,THAICOM8 mission, May 2016 - via SpaceX

15. 2. What did your AI make today?
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16. What did your AI make today?
16The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
Photo CC BY-ND Flickr user chijs
Photo CC BY-NC-SA Flickr user portalgda
› Tesla owners have already driven over 300 million miles on Autopilot
› 100,000+Teslas with Autopilot are already on the road
› Over 4 billion electric miles driven byTeslas alone

17. What did your AI make today?
17The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
Google DeepMindAI learns to play Breakout

18. What did your AI make today?
18The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
Obstacle detection and avoidance in the Google self-driving car

19. But… how does it work?
19The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
Neural network in 11 lines of Python
https://iamtrask.github.io/2015/07/12/basic-python-network/

20. What did your AI make today?
20The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

21. What did your AI make today?
21The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

22. It’s all cats from here… (and dogs!)
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
Trending image from Deep Dream Generator - https://deepdreamgenerator.com/
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23. AI meets Shakespeare
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
From http://karpathy.github.io/2015/05/21/rnn-effectiveness/
VIOLA:Why, Salisbury must find his flesh and thought
That which I am not aps, not a man and in fire,
To show the reining of the raven and the wars
To grace my hand reproach within, and not a fair are hand,
That Caesar and my goodly father's world;
When I was heaven of presence and our fleets,
We spare with hours, but cut thy council I am great,
Murdered and by thy master's ready there
My power to give thee but so much as hell:
Some service in the noble bondman here,
Would show him to her wine.
KING LEAR: O, if you were a feeble sight, the courtesy of your law,
Your sight and several breath, will wear the gods
With his heads, and my hands are wonder'd at the deeds,
So drop upon your lordship's head, and your opinion
Shall be against your honour.
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24. It’s a (w)rap
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Mr Shadow – song composed by Sony CSL Research Laboratory’s AI
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25. 3.The road to Mars
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26. Near future careers
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
Now hiring… DNA editors
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27. Near future careers
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
Now hiring… DNA editors, drone engineers
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28. Near future careers
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc18
Now hiring… DNA editors, drone engineers, asteroid miners
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29. The road to Mars
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 29

30. The road to Mars
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 30

31. The road to Mars
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32. The road to Mars
» A few things that have never been done off-
world:
› Large scale agriculture
› Mining
› Smelting
› Living without a magnetosphere
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018 32

33. The road to Mars
» A few things that have never been done off-
world:
› Large scale agriculture
› Mining
› Smelting
› Living without a magnetosphere
» But that’s not all…
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34. The road to Mars
» A few things that have never been done off-
world:
› Large scale agriculture
› Mining
› Smelting
› Living without a magnetosphere
» But that’s not all…
› Pregnancy
› Childbirth
› Learning to walk/run/jump
› Going to school
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35. 4. Wrapping up
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36. Lifelong learning and portfolio careers
36The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
http://www.stanford2025.com/#fast-forward

37. Future present
37The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

38. Future present
38The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

39. From digital exhaust to intelligent campus
39The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018
https://futurecities.catapult.org.uk/project/smart-campus-university-of-glasgow/

40. AI & predictive analytics for truly personalised learning
40The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

41. Learnometer – what makes a good learning space?
41The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

42. Learning analytics for retention and attainment
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43. Wrapping up
Near future memes:
» Portfolio learning for portfolio careers
» A new life awaits you on the off-world colonies
» The Raspberry Pi generation comes of age
» What can your AI make today?
› #robotuprising
› Plagiarism 2.0
» Brexit means … ?
43The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018

44. Continue the conversation…
44
Except where otherwise noted, this
work is licensed under CC-BY
Martin Hamilton
Futurist, Jisc
@martin_hamilton
martin.hamilton@jisc.ac.uk
The wind from nowhere – horizon scanning in an uncertain age – Scientia EMEA User Conference 2018 #suc1815/03/2018