This document summarizes a paper on fertility transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It provides background on high population growth rates and demographic pressures in MENA since 1950. It then reviews demographic changes over the past 200 years, including low growth until the 1920s followed by increases to 2% in the 1930s-40s. The paper uses regression analysis of data from 1960-2000 to show strong negative relationships between fertility rates and income, urbanization, health, and education levels. It concludes with comments on the results and limitations, as well as suggestions to consider government programs and more recent data.

1. Fertility Transition in the Middle East and North Africa
Mahmoud Al Nouri

2.  Demography in the MENA Region
 Structure
 Introduction
 Data
 Model
 Results
 Criticism/Comments/Suggestions

3.  MENA region experienced some of the highest
population growth rates since 1950
 These demographic trends caused pressure on
labor market and high unemployment rates
especially among the youth due to inability of
economies to absorb the growth in labor supply
 Demography has become a tyrant over MENA
economies and will be for the next two decades

5. • Demographic changes in MENA in the past
200 years
▫ Below 1% population growth (sometimes
negative rates) until 1920s
▫ Reasons: Conflicts, Famine, Poor health
conditions and epidemics
 Plague claimed 25% of Morocco’s population in 1818
and about 500K Egyptians in 1835
▫ Population growth rates reached nearly 2% in
1930s and 40s
 “Egypt is greatly overpopulated” (Cleland 1936)
(Egypt’s Population was 15 Millions in 1936)

6.  MENA’s demographic trends
 Delayed decline in fertility rates
 Increase in some countries!
 Demographic Developments after
1950
 Declining mortality (Health, Stability..)
 Average life expectancy (1950: 43 – 1975: 57 yrs)
 Fertility remained high until late 1970s

8.  Why fertility rates in the region are high?
 Why the delay?
 Why the rapid fertility decline in some states?
 Answers:
 Income Effects
 Urbanization and Industrialization
 Health Conditions
 Education
 Religion

9.  Empirical models using an international
panel dataset over the period 1960-2000
 Source: United Nations Records, World Bank
and other researchers
 162 developing countries
 Observations for every 5 years from 1960 to
2000
 9 Observations per country

10.  Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Dependent variable
 Income, Urbanization, Health, Education,
and Religion are independent variables
 Regression TFR on the log of GDP per capita
and then on the other independent variables

11.  Strong Negative between GDP per Capita
and TFR
 Strong Negative between Urbanization rate
and TFR
 Strong Negative between Average years of
schooling and TFR
 Strong Negative between Health and TFR

14. • Comments
▫ Interesting historic overview
▫ Results matches previous studies
• Criticisms
▫ Using several sources of data
▫ The paper ignored the role of government programs in
reducing fertility rates
• Suggestions
▫ Include government spending on family planning
programs per capita
▫ Include updated data to include up to 2010 (one source)