The document discusses how averages can be misleading for software development estimates. It recommends using Monte Carlo simulation and continuous forecasting based on a distribution of values rather than averages. This provides a probabilistic forecast that is more accurate and reduces wasted time. The benefits are increased chances of hitting targets on time and allowing teams to focus on building quality software.
A brief introduction on digital marketing based on my experience and day-to-day executions.
This was shared during the launch of AIESEC X Maxis Partnership on 20th Jan 2017.
Edita Lukošiūtė - Galvoji, kad esi geras pėdsekys? Gilesnis požiūris į kelią ...Vladas Sapranavicius
Dažnai vartotojas, prieš apsispręsdamas pirkti, svetainėje apsilanko kelis kartus, per skirtingus kanalus. Tuo tarpu Google Analytics pardavimų ataskaitose matome tik paskutinio apsilankymo statistiką. Remiantis tokiomis ataskaitomis rinkodarininkai dažnai ne tik neišnaudoja rinkos potencialo, bet ir klaidingai paskirsto reklamos biudžetus. Sužinosite, kaip gilesnis žvilgsnis į vartotojo pirkimo kelią, padeda identifikuoti problemas bei pardavimų didinimo galimybes.
The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software development estimatesDaiany Palacios
The next piece of software is to be developed as quickly as possible by two teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to give a date. He decides to simply take 7 months as the average of the two teams and so the rest of the project plan ends up based on averages. Basing on the book "The Flaw of Averages," this presentation explains why average-based plans fail on average and provides a way to avoid this trap at least when it comes to software development estimates.
Annija Graustina: Facebook reklamos kampanijos, kurios iš tikrųjų skatina pa...Vladas Sapranavicius
Pranešimas, Annijos skaitytas el. komercijos konferencijoje "E-komercija '18" 2018 kovo 15 d. - http://e-komercija.eu/
Facebook reklama yra vienas iš skaitmeninės rinkodaros įrankių, kuris per pastaruosius metus turi didelę reikšmę Jūsų pasiekiamiems rezultatams, todėl to ignoruoti nereikia.
Annija Jums pateiks pasiūlymus ir praktinius patarimus kokia turi būti stipri Facebook reklamos kampanija ir kaip ją sukurti, aptars kokias rinkodaros strategijas vertėtų rinktis 2018 metams.
Gausite vertingų patarimų, kaip organizuoti testavimo procesus ir kaip analizuoti turimus rezultatus.
[Elite Camp 2016] Paul Rouke - Tackling the Global Pandemic That is Bullshit ...CXL
The conversion optimisation industry is in a mess. Poor practice and the spread of misinformation is rife. The agencies and practitioners who truly understand what intelligent conversion optimisation is and what it looks like are currently part of what can only be described as “the secret society”.
Nearly every business claims they are "customer centric", yet reality proves they’re far from it and more often than not, they’re clueless as to what it means.
Millions is spent every month on enterprise testing tools which promise the world, only to be used by untrained teams and produce inconclusive results. To add to the problem, there are new shiny toys in the guise of big data & personalisation stealing all the headlines and clamouring for marketing budget to be thrown their way.
In his opening keynote talk, Paul will be discussing the struggles that the conversion optimisation industry has faced (and will continue to) and how collectively, the people within the industry can prove that conversion optimisation is the best force for growth available to businesses all around the world.
Agile Marketing For The Real World event - Signal - 6th Nov 2019Lauren Cormack
Unique insights on applying Agile principles in a marketing context, with Signal, creative strategist Kate Bordwell and bestselling author Neil Perkin, exploring the challenges involved in adopting Agile ways of working in the ‘real world’.
A brief introduction on digital marketing based on my experience and day-to-day executions.
This was shared during the launch of AIESEC X Maxis Partnership on 20th Jan 2017.
Edita Lukošiūtė - Galvoji, kad esi geras pėdsekys? Gilesnis požiūris į kelią ...Vladas Sapranavicius
Dažnai vartotojas, prieš apsispręsdamas pirkti, svetainėje apsilanko kelis kartus, per skirtingus kanalus. Tuo tarpu Google Analytics pardavimų ataskaitose matome tik paskutinio apsilankymo statistiką. Remiantis tokiomis ataskaitomis rinkodarininkai dažnai ne tik neišnaudoja rinkos potencialo, bet ir klaidingai paskirsto reklamos biudžetus. Sužinosite, kaip gilesnis žvilgsnis į vartotojo pirkimo kelią, padeda identifikuoti problemas bei pardavimų didinimo galimybes.
The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software development estimatesDaiany Palacios
The next piece of software is to be developed as quickly as possible by two teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to give a date. He decides to simply take 7 months as the average of the two teams and so the rest of the project plan ends up based on averages. Basing on the book "The Flaw of Averages," this presentation explains why average-based plans fail on average and provides a way to avoid this trap at least when it comes to software development estimates.
Annija Graustina: Facebook reklamos kampanijos, kurios iš tikrųjų skatina pa...Vladas Sapranavicius
Pranešimas, Annijos skaitytas el. komercijos konferencijoje "E-komercija '18" 2018 kovo 15 d. - http://e-komercija.eu/
Facebook reklama yra vienas iš skaitmeninės rinkodaros įrankių, kuris per pastaruosius metus turi didelę reikšmę Jūsų pasiekiamiems rezultatams, todėl to ignoruoti nereikia.
Annija Jums pateiks pasiūlymus ir praktinius patarimus kokia turi būti stipri Facebook reklamos kampanija ir kaip ją sukurti, aptars kokias rinkodaros strategijas vertėtų rinktis 2018 metams.
Gausite vertingų patarimų, kaip organizuoti testavimo procesus ir kaip analizuoti turimus rezultatus.
[Elite Camp 2016] Paul Rouke - Tackling the Global Pandemic That is Bullshit ...CXL
The conversion optimisation industry is in a mess. Poor practice and the spread of misinformation is rife. The agencies and practitioners who truly understand what intelligent conversion optimisation is and what it looks like are currently part of what can only be described as “the secret society”.
Nearly every business claims they are "customer centric", yet reality proves they’re far from it and more often than not, they’re clueless as to what it means.
Millions is spent every month on enterprise testing tools which promise the world, only to be used by untrained teams and produce inconclusive results. To add to the problem, there are new shiny toys in the guise of big data & personalisation stealing all the headlines and clamouring for marketing budget to be thrown their way.
In his opening keynote talk, Paul will be discussing the struggles that the conversion optimisation industry has faced (and will continue to) and how collectively, the people within the industry can prove that conversion optimisation is the best force for growth available to businesses all around the world.
Agile Marketing For The Real World event - Signal - 6th Nov 2019Lauren Cormack
Unique insights on applying Agile principles in a marketing context, with Signal, creative strategist Kate Bordwell and bestselling author Neil Perkin, exploring the challenges involved in adopting Agile ways of working in the ‘real world’.
Maximising Media Through SEO; How To Drive More From You ATL Campaigns - Ric ...Ric Rodriguez
For many, above the line advertising is a key part of the marketing mix. However, as users are increasingly looking to search to find their answers, the overlap between the two is becoming more important for brands to consider.
This talk will discussed how to further capitalise on media-driven customer demand, through careful planning and collaboration between buying teams and search marketers and with a view to helping make the most of your marketing spend.
Ric Rodriguez is a London-based SEO consultant; a self-taught technical enthusiast, he breaks down complicated ideas and concepts into the key, need-to-know facts. Find out more at ricrodriguez.co.uk or @RicRodriguez_UK on Twitter.
Get SEO Buy-In By Using the Language of the “C”Tracy McDonald
How to build a full Organic market model using your industry's data
Predict future Organic traffic based on your previous SEO performance
Use C-level terminology to build a revenue model that will win you pitches for more SEO resources
SEO ROI Calculator Template Link: http://bit.ly/BrightonSEOROICalculator
There's More to Marketing than Just Social Media Posts: Check Out These 5 Dif...Carlos Sierra
Experienced public relations professional Carlos Sierra talks about marketing strategies that don't utilize social media. An experienced political consultant as well, Carlos Sierra had the opportunity to work on Gary Johnson's presidential campaign in 2016.
SEO Expert Panel @pcn PodCamp Nashville 2013. How do you measure SEO success? What barriers have yuou overcome in the SEO world? What's your secret sauce for SEO? Also includes links to all the websites & SEO resources mentioned by the panel. Ross Jones, @2theTopDesign 2 the Top Web Design. Jeremy Rivera, @RavenJeremy Raven Tools. Anna Belle Leiserson, @HappyWebDiva Vanderbilt. Anna Hamil, @ALHamil 2 the Top Web Design. #pcn13
Presenter: Dheyvi Velagapudi, Substantial, Director of Design
Designing for hundreds, thousands, or millions of people is a high stakes game where data provides us the safety and drive to make sure our work doesn’t fall short. But when we only look at the numbers, we’re eliminating one of the key things that helps us innovate and design greater – our creativity. So, how did we get here and how do we take back the ability to be creative in a world obsessed with data?
BrightonSEO July 2021 - Convincing clients to try new outreach tacticsGlass Digital
Here I talk about how to convince clients to try a new outreach tactic to help with link-building. These tips are transferable across a range of digital marketing practices.
B2B lead generation tactics that save the day. Watch the recorded session at the link below: http://www.onpath.com/webinarlibrary
Do you want to get a 30-40% boost in qualified B2B lead generation sales leads from your marketing campaigns? Global brands like IBM, American Express and Google trust OnPath to help them generate these kind of results when they combine multiple B2B lead generation tactics into a single integrated B2B lead generation program.
Join us for 29 minutes as Andy Church (VP Marketing, OnPath) and Heather Burhan (VP Customer Care, OnPath) share 10 B2B lead generation marketing superhero tactics that will help you save the day and attract more prospects into the top of the sales funnel.
Getting Beyond Hype: Bridging the Gap Between Social Media Strategy and Execu...10 Louder
Big Data. Influencers. Social Engagement. Content Strategy. With so many buzzwords flying around, it’s easy to get distracted by the latest shiny object. What digital communication industry needs to succeed isn’t more jargon. It needs more operational rigor. Getting Things Done is the new digital mantra.
In this session, industry veteran Brad McCormick breaks through the smoke and mirrors that accompany nearly every digital and social strategy presentation and presents four key principles of smart digital and social media execution. McCormick shows communicators how to bridge the gap between simply creating big ideas and executing them – the place where many organizations fall short. Using real-world examples, he provides solutions to simplify digital and communications plans, shows you how to adopt digital trends without getting distracted by noise, and demonstrates how to find solutions to fit in any budget.
Attracting New Customers with Inbound Marketing Techniques.Funsho Peters
Presented at the event "Leveraging Media and Technology For Success in Your Business" organised by Stanford Seed Transformation Network Nigeria on the 20th May, 2017 at the Westwood Hotel, Ikoyi - Lagos.
Digital Outlook (Econsultancy) Keynote: 2014 Trends for Content & SocialChristel Quek
This keynote was presented at Digital Outlook 2014, organised by Econsultancy on 2014 Trends for Content & Social.
2014 Trends will bring the creation of real user value back into focus. By understanding the intersection of user needs and brand expertise, value creation can be manifested through understanding Content, Context, and using them to drive Advocacy.
2014 Trends for Content:
- Social Intelligence Centers
- From Publisher to Activator
- From Ego Analytics to Business Metrics
2014 Trends for Context:
- Battle of the Feeds
- Micro Social, Macro Possibilities
- Behaviour > Demographics
2014 Trends for Advocacy:
- Passion Points for C.I.A (Celebrities, Influencers, Advocates)
- It's not Real if it's not Relevant
- Intersection of User Graphs
Daiany Palacios - The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software developme...Codemotion
The next piece of software is to be developed by 2 teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to deliver a date, so he takes 7 months as the average of the 2 teams. In this talk I will explain why average-based plans fail on average, then take a look at the psychological problems we humans have dealing with probabilities as a possible reason why we keep falling into the averages trap. Finally, I will show a way to avoid it when it comes to software development estimates.
Come on... It's in the Requirements by Sloan Miller (@PMOwned) #DPM2015Sloan Miller
Let’s be super honest… gathering requirements and maintaining them throughout a project is a royal pain. And to top it all off, when the documentation is complete you always wonder if anyone really reads it. Ambiguity can never be entirely removed, but excessive amounts of it kill a project's timeline, budget, and potential for success.
Maximising Media Through SEO; How To Drive More From You ATL Campaigns - Ric ...Ric Rodriguez
For many, above the line advertising is a key part of the marketing mix. However, as users are increasingly looking to search to find their answers, the overlap between the two is becoming more important for brands to consider.
This talk will discussed how to further capitalise on media-driven customer demand, through careful planning and collaboration between buying teams and search marketers and with a view to helping make the most of your marketing spend.
Ric Rodriguez is a London-based SEO consultant; a self-taught technical enthusiast, he breaks down complicated ideas and concepts into the key, need-to-know facts. Find out more at ricrodriguez.co.uk or @RicRodriguez_UK on Twitter.
Get SEO Buy-In By Using the Language of the “C”Tracy McDonald
How to build a full Organic market model using your industry's data
Predict future Organic traffic based on your previous SEO performance
Use C-level terminology to build a revenue model that will win you pitches for more SEO resources
SEO ROI Calculator Template Link: http://bit.ly/BrightonSEOROICalculator
There's More to Marketing than Just Social Media Posts: Check Out These 5 Dif...Carlos Sierra
Experienced public relations professional Carlos Sierra talks about marketing strategies that don't utilize social media. An experienced political consultant as well, Carlos Sierra had the opportunity to work on Gary Johnson's presidential campaign in 2016.
SEO Expert Panel @pcn PodCamp Nashville 2013. How do you measure SEO success? What barriers have yuou overcome in the SEO world? What's your secret sauce for SEO? Also includes links to all the websites & SEO resources mentioned by the panel. Ross Jones, @2theTopDesign 2 the Top Web Design. Jeremy Rivera, @RavenJeremy Raven Tools. Anna Belle Leiserson, @HappyWebDiva Vanderbilt. Anna Hamil, @ALHamil 2 the Top Web Design. #pcn13
Presenter: Dheyvi Velagapudi, Substantial, Director of Design
Designing for hundreds, thousands, or millions of people is a high stakes game where data provides us the safety and drive to make sure our work doesn’t fall short. But when we only look at the numbers, we’re eliminating one of the key things that helps us innovate and design greater – our creativity. So, how did we get here and how do we take back the ability to be creative in a world obsessed with data?
BrightonSEO July 2021 - Convincing clients to try new outreach tacticsGlass Digital
Here I talk about how to convince clients to try a new outreach tactic to help with link-building. These tips are transferable across a range of digital marketing practices.
B2B lead generation tactics that save the day. Watch the recorded session at the link below: http://www.onpath.com/webinarlibrary
Do you want to get a 30-40% boost in qualified B2B lead generation sales leads from your marketing campaigns? Global brands like IBM, American Express and Google trust OnPath to help them generate these kind of results when they combine multiple B2B lead generation tactics into a single integrated B2B lead generation program.
Join us for 29 minutes as Andy Church (VP Marketing, OnPath) and Heather Burhan (VP Customer Care, OnPath) share 10 B2B lead generation marketing superhero tactics that will help you save the day and attract more prospects into the top of the sales funnel.
Getting Beyond Hype: Bridging the Gap Between Social Media Strategy and Execu...10 Louder
Big Data. Influencers. Social Engagement. Content Strategy. With so many buzzwords flying around, it’s easy to get distracted by the latest shiny object. What digital communication industry needs to succeed isn’t more jargon. It needs more operational rigor. Getting Things Done is the new digital mantra.
In this session, industry veteran Brad McCormick breaks through the smoke and mirrors that accompany nearly every digital and social strategy presentation and presents four key principles of smart digital and social media execution. McCormick shows communicators how to bridge the gap between simply creating big ideas and executing them – the place where many organizations fall short. Using real-world examples, he provides solutions to simplify digital and communications plans, shows you how to adopt digital trends without getting distracted by noise, and demonstrates how to find solutions to fit in any budget.
Attracting New Customers with Inbound Marketing Techniques.Funsho Peters
Presented at the event "Leveraging Media and Technology For Success in Your Business" organised by Stanford Seed Transformation Network Nigeria on the 20th May, 2017 at the Westwood Hotel, Ikoyi - Lagos.
Digital Outlook (Econsultancy) Keynote: 2014 Trends for Content & SocialChristel Quek
This keynote was presented at Digital Outlook 2014, organised by Econsultancy on 2014 Trends for Content & Social.
2014 Trends will bring the creation of real user value back into focus. By understanding the intersection of user needs and brand expertise, value creation can be manifested through understanding Content, Context, and using them to drive Advocacy.
2014 Trends for Content:
- Social Intelligence Centers
- From Publisher to Activator
- From Ego Analytics to Business Metrics
2014 Trends for Context:
- Battle of the Feeds
- Micro Social, Macro Possibilities
- Behaviour > Demographics
2014 Trends for Advocacy:
- Passion Points for C.I.A (Celebrities, Influencers, Advocates)
- It's not Real if it's not Relevant
- Intersection of User Graphs
Daiany Palacios - The trap of averages. How to avoid it in software developme...Codemotion
The next piece of software is to be developed by 2 teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team A says 5-8 months and Team B 6-9 months. But the department head is under pressure to deliver a date, so he takes 7 months as the average of the 2 teams. In this talk I will explain why average-based plans fail on average, then take a look at the psychological problems we humans have dealing with probabilities as a possible reason why we keep falling into the averages trap. Finally, I will show a way to avoid it when it comes to software development estimates.
Come on... It's in the Requirements by Sloan Miller (@PMOwned) #DPM2015Sloan Miller
Let’s be super honest… gathering requirements and maintaining them throughout a project is a royal pain. And to top it all off, when the documentation is complete you always wonder if anyone really reads it. Ambiguity can never be entirely removed, but excessive amounts of it kill a project's timeline, budget, and potential for success.
Why Tangential Content Matters (And How It Can Build Your Organic Traffic)Amanda Milligan
It takes courage to create content not directly tied to your product/service offering -- but if you do it, you can see massive growth in your brand's authority and in your overall organic traffic over time. Find out why tangential content works so well and get tips on how to create it.
3 Reasons to Use Data for Successful CROJason Wright
In this presentation from the Engage Conference 2021, learn how to use CRO to drive business results. Increasing sales doesn't always mean you need a brand new site design. The smallest changes can sometimes have the biggest impact.
Why developers need marketing now more than ever | GlueCon 2019 | Claire Gior...Citus Data
Many in today’s developer world look down on marketing. I mean, after all, the marketing team is usually “not technical.” And they’re not developers. It’s 2019 and while we try to promote inclusiveness of all types, inclusiveness doesn’t seem to apply to marketers. Why? Is that OK? Who does that hurt? I grew up in engineering and spent the first 15 years of my career as a developer or an engineering manager of some type. So now that I’m in marketing, it surprised me when one of my engineering colleagues blurted out “But it’s a technical conference!” when he learned one of my talks was accepted to a technical conference.
This keynote is about why developers really need marketing. About how good marketing managers can make it so visitors to your website don’t leave empty-handed, confused about what your technology actually does or why it matters. About how the ability to translate technology into what-users-actually-care-about can make your project be the one that takes off. About why Dormain Drewitz said at Monktoberfest: “I work in product marketing. My preferred programming language is English.” Finally, this talk explores how to be sensitive to the bias against marketing that pervades some of our teams—and how to instead embrace teamwork best practices employed by sailors, where everyone in the boat has an important role to play if you are to win the race.
Digital disruptions as one of my 2015-2016 lectures at the University of Berg...Roberto Peretta
Digital disruptions as one of my 2015-2016 lectures at the University of Bergamo. It's stimulus material, posted to improve communication with current students. It's not interesting for the academia.
Mobile Games Market Trends Q1 2018 from Priori DataBenjamin Nolan
Digging into market and industry data on the mobile games economy. Performance estimates from Priori Data, NewZoo, Chartboost, and other sources.
Credit: Priori Data, Benjamin Nolan
Mobile Product Strategy Keynote Presentation for Mobile App Europe Conference...Marc C. Lange
This keynote presentation is all about validating your user's needs as early as possible in the product management process. You will gain experience in the basics of Customer Development, smart user interviews and how these methods apply to Mobile. Basic concepts, best practices and tools sum up this talk.
Optimize for Engagement: Future-Proof Your Local Search RankingsDana DiTomaso
It’s getting harder and harder to rank in local search results – more businesses than ever have basic citations covered, no one is handing out free links, and social media is just downright noisy. What’s a business to do?Dana will show how to build a marketing strategy by planning your tactics around that signal, and how to show Google that you’re a thriving business that deserves those great rankings.
Presented at Engage PDX, March 9 2017.
The Profitable Agency: How to Attract, Retain and Grow a Profitable Client BasePR 20/20
#INBOUND 14 agency track deck. Growth is the easy part. Attracting and retaining a profitable client base is the real challenge for agencies. As the demand for digital increases, many agencies are offering new services, evolving internal processes, and evaluating alternate revenue and pricing models. The presentation provides 15 actionable tips to maximize your agency’s profits in the new era of marketing services.
Growth is the easy part. Attracting and retaining a profitable client base is the real challenge for agencies. As the demand for digital increases, many agencies are offering new services, evolving internal processes, and evaluating alternate revenue and pricing models. In this presentation, Paul Roetzer provides 15 actionable tips to maximize your agency’s profits in the new era of marketing services.
The Future for Marketers - Strategy, Creativity and TechnologyPaddy Moogan
By Paddy Moogan at Marketing Festival 2014 in Brno. Paddy talks about the future for marketers which is in the middle of strategy, creativity and technology.
Similar to The trap of averages - Techcamp Hamburg (20)
Why my Senior Manager was so relaxed in the face of GDPR?Daiany Palacios
Ignite Talk given at the DevOpsDays Berlin 2018.
Description:
GDPR: Acronym for the “General Data Protection Regulation” law applicable since last May 25th
Every single one of us received a rain of emails from websites we sometimes didn’t even remember we had ever signed up to, asking us to check our privacy settings or letting us know that there were changes in the privacy policy. Most of us probably developed #GDPRFatigue. It’s ironical how a norm that is intended to protect our privacy originated such a terrible spam wave!
But from the companies’ point of view, becoming compliant till May 25th was a huge challenge. Due to several reasons, for many companies it was a hell of a rush they had to go through. And the company I work for was not the exception.
In this presentation, I will tell an entertaining story on the reasons why, in comparison to other departments, my Senior Manager was relaxed when facing the challenge of GDPR. What is it that we do differently in our little sub-world that allowed us to overcome the challenge, and our lessons learned along the way.
FoMO-driven culture. What we can do to stay productiveDaiany Palacios
FoMO: Acronym for the “Fear of Missing Out”
What’s the first thing you do in the morning at the office? You check your email. You can’t start working in peace unless you’ve reached Inbox zero. And still you need to keep Outlook, Lync and Slack open “just in case”. Have you ever wondered why it is like this?
In principle, your company doesn’t expect you to have all these apps open. You should be able to design your working day as you want, as long as you deliver what you have to. But de-facto you are expected to be available. Even more when we talk about DevOps and so much collaboration is needed between teams that might even be geographically distributed. There seems not to be any other way!
Unfortunately, such a “FoMO-driven culture”, is not healthy for your organization. It starts killing productivity when let out of control.
In this talk we will be discussing some ways how to live with it, how we can keep it under control so that we can stay productive and not let it influence the DevOps culture in the wrong way.
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
Generating a custom Ruby SDK for your web service or Rails API using Smithyg2nightmarescribd
Have you ever wanted a Ruby client API to communicate with your web service? Smithy is a protocol-agnostic language for defining services and SDKs. Smithy Ruby is an implementation of Smithy that generates a Ruby SDK using a Smithy model. In this talk, we will explore Smithy and Smithy Ruby to learn how to generate custom feature-rich SDKs that can communicate with any web service, such as a Rails JSON API.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 3. In this session, we will cover desktop automation along with UI automation.
Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
13. Whenever an average is used to
represent an uncertain quantity, it
disturbs the results because
it ignores the impact of the inevitable
variations
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
14. We need to act on a
distribution
rather than on
single
values
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
24. “Our ability to accurately and reliably answer
customers’ question “when it will be done?”
is the true measure of predictability”
By @danvacanti
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
27. We avoid
the trap of
averages
We provide a
more realistic
forecast
We reduce
the waste
of time
We keep a
better eye on
the course of
the team
Some benefits we have from
#ContinuousForecasting
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
29. The Trap of Averages
How to avoid it in software development estimates
04
03
02
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?
Plans based on average fail on average, because they ignore the impact of variations.
Well-considered projects are doomed to disappointing results.
01
Designed by PresentationGO.com
WHAT TO DO?
Act on a distribution of values and their likelihood of happening, instead of using
single values (an average).
HOW TO DO THAT?
Use a Monte Carlo Simulation for a probabilistic forecast based on historical data.
Adopt a Continuous Forecasting strategy.
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?
Chances of hitting the estimated date are increased. Waste of time is reduced.
The team can use its precious time to build awesome things instead!
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
30. Averages are a
trap…
… and now you
know how to avoid it
When estimating, remember…
#tchh19 @DaianyMargarita
Good morning everyone! My name is Daiany Palacios. Today I am going to be talking about phenomenom that has a wide impact on different fields: the problem of using averages for planning and forecasting. But of course since I am coming from a software delevopment background, I will be narrowing it down to our developers world, and most importantly, I will be sharing with you the solution that has worked out for me and my team within our context.
Originally I come from Venezuela, but live and work in Germany since 10 years. I belong to one of the development departments of the global IT organization of Kühne + Nagel in Hamburg, the city that has adopted me and become my home.
Now, once you found out a little bit about me, I invite you to meet Joseph.
He was a brilliant statistician who drowned while fording a river that he calculated was, on average, 1 meter deep.
He went straight to the trap and fell on it.
Just like the saying „Your head may be on a freezer and your feet in an owen, but on average you are fine“ is also a trap.
It‘s obviously wrong, isn‘t it ?
Yes, it might be obvious in this context. But still there are lots of people out there influenced by „average“ prices, „average“ rents and „average“ growth
To a strategic investor for example, basing decisions on „average“ numbers is just like developing a medical diagnosis based on the above saying.
It‘s just not accurate.
However, it‘s very usual to find all different kinds of plans out there, based on average values. We live in a world of headlines that pump national average house price, average rent prices and the average household debt.
Software development plans are not too different.
Just consider the following situation, and tell me if it rings a bell:
The next piece of software is to be developed as quickly as possible by two teams and they now have to answer how long it’s going to take. Team Alpha says 5-8 months and Team Bravo 6-9 months.
But Ralph, the project manager is under pressure to give a date. He decides to simply take 7 months as the average of the two teams.
Unfortunately, 10 months later the project wasn’t ready yet. And the disappointment was very high.
At this point I would like to ask:
How many of you have had a similar experience and can relate to this story?
How many of you have experienced that a project planned like this was ready on the initially estimated date?
It‘s just not accurate.
Sam L. Savage in his book “The Flaw of Averages” makes a simple but powerful statement: plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.
This basic but almost always unseen “flaw”, as the author calls it, shows up everywhere in business, distorting accounts, undermining forecasts, and dooming apparently well-considered projects to disappointing results. Just like Ralph’s project.
The problem is that
whenever an average is used to represent an uncertain quantity, it ends up disturbing the results because it ignores the impact of the inevitable variations.
According to Mr. Savage, averages routinely spoil accounting investments, production planning, even weather forecasting.
Just like they also routinely ruin delivery forecasts of software development projects.
We need to act on a distribution rather than on single values, in order to avoid falling into the “Averages” trap. Some executives are already aware of the importance of this, and employ statisticians who estimate the distributions of everything from stock prices to electricity demand. Increasingly, companies are also turning to software-based cures for the flaw.
Many programs now simulate uncertainty, generating thousands of possible values for a given scenario. The result comprises a whole range of possible values and their likelihood of happening, the frequency distribution. We should better use something like this to get a more accurate forecast.
In order to do so, what we have to do is to get the help of a Monte Carlo Simulation
Hands up who is familiar with the MCS and what it does ?
For those who didn’t raise the hand, in short:
The MCS is a mathematical tool that allows to account for risk and helps making data-driven decisions.
It is based on historical data that is ran through a large number of random simulations to generate the probable outcome of future projects under similar circumstances.
We have been using it for the past 3 years and helped us a lot to estimate the probability of future outcomes without just shooting in the dark.
Here is how it works:
When we receive a new requirement, we break it down till we know how many steps we would need to finish it.
Then we take the data of how long it took to finish all different working items in a past time frame and give it as input to a Monte Carlo Simulation.
The simulation will use a statistical equation that takes the cycle time of a random item in our predefined past time frame and simulates several options of how long the team is likely going to need to finish a random item in the future. Basically it rolls the dice thousands of times in order to get a statistically believable prognosis.
The result is a distribution on the likely delivery dates for our specified amount of working items.
When our product owner comes and asks us how long the new requirement is going to take, our answer goes: with 85% probability we will be ready by <Date> or earlier.
This answer is a probabilistic forecast: We provide a range of values, and a probability as an indicator of our level of confidence on this forecast.
These kind of forecasts are rather hard to accept, as my experience shows. To understand and internalize the meaning of a probability in the provided answer, it‘s not easy.
This means a shift in mind-set: we need to think probabilistically and not deterministically.
Thinking probabilistically means, acknowledging that there is more than one possible future outcome
Which is exactly right when it comes to forecasting, because it is an uncertain thing.
So, how do we deal with that uncertainty?, that is for me the most important question. (PAUSE)
Well, we take a probabilistic forecast as the initial answer, but we update it as we know more, as we get more information.
(CLICK 1) We do continuous forecasting.
It means that we get used to the fact that the target date changes with the time (probably not so extreme as in that example), but it is a living forecast.
So we adopt the habit of sitting together regularly with the product owner and update the initial forecast as we have more information and less uncertainty.
That’s the only way we can maximize the chances of hitting the estimated date, and avoid falling into the trap of averages.
Now, before I talk about the benefits we have got from this strategy, there are some important points that I want to mention, that are key for the whole thing to work:
Since we started doing continuous forecasting, we noticed that the more disciplined we are with the flow of our development process in our team, the more we can trust the forecast of the monte carlo simulation.
For example, it‘s important to make sure that we dont start more work than we can finish, to keep an eye on the throughput and to focus more on finishing work before starting with new items.
Kanban principles help us out a lot with this.
In our organization, predictability is more important than pure speed of delivery. And it‘s probably the same in many other organizations out there.
Therefore, the development process has to be „stable“ in order to be „predictable“. That‘s why it‘s important to take good care of the flow.
The „Actionable Agile Metric for Predictability“ book by Dan Vacanti has been a very useful guide for us to improve the predictability of our development process. I highly recommend it.
In his own words: „Our ability to accurately and reliably answer customers‘ question „when it will be done?“ is the true measure of predictability.
So the ultimate goal is according to him, to be able to make as accurate forecasts as possible with as little effort as possible.
And this can be achieved by using a Monte Carlo Simulation for a probabilistic forecast, following a continuous forecasting strategy.
Now let‘s talk about the main benefits we have got from following a Continuous Forecasting strategy
At this point I want to make clear that I am not trying to sell you the idea of #NoEstimates.
There is still an estimation we do: the number of work items to be done to implement a new requirement.
However, coming up with this value is something we have to do anyway before starting the implementation, since we have to think what steps need to be done anyway. And it‘s more likely to be accurate in this number, than on a time estimate, because there are usually less uncertainty factors.
On the other hand, our reality is that we provide a date-range and a probability as a forecast to our product owner, but the further communication with the managers of the Business Units (our customers in our context) is still a single date !
The business managers can‘t get along with a probabilistic forecast, they work with a date and there is no easy way out of it. Our organisation works with projects that need lots of estimates, including delivery dates.
So what‘s the point? You might be wondering now…. Right ?
Well, despite of that reality, we do have a lot of advantages:
We avoid the trap of averages.
We provide a more realistic forecast with an important piece of information: the level of confidence on the prediction. Which was always missing before. And with this, we contribute to a more accurate project delivery plan.
We reduce the waste of time since we don‘t do detailed work-item estimations anymore. We use our time for real development instead. And we feel great about it
Forecasting continuously helps us to identify the course we have as a team and more importantly, correct it on time if necessary.
Plans based on average fail on average. Whenever an average is used to represent an uncertain quantity, it ends up disturbing the results because it ignores the impact of the inevitable variations.
(CLICK 1) The problem is that thanks to the trap of averages forecasts are disturbed, and apparently well-considered projects are doomed to disappointing results.
(CLICK 2) In order to avoid falling into the trap, we should better act on a distribution of values and their likelihood of happening.
(CLICK 3) The Monte Carlo Simulation is a powerful tool that helps us to produce realistic forecasts based on our historical data, and not on averages.
The idea is to adopt a #ContinuousForecasting strategy, in which the simulation is run regularly in order to cope with the uncertainty of the initial forecast.
It should be a living forecast, that is updated as we know more and have less uncertainty.
(CLICK 4) This is the only way we can increase the chances of hitting the predicted dates.
At the end, we don‘t waste time with detailed item estimations and use our precious time for building awesome things instead.
- If you have any other questions or want to know more about my experience, feel free to contact me, I will be happy to help.
Just one last thing before we finish:
Remember that story from the beginning of Ralph the project manager and his two development teams?
Well… keep this in mind: If you ever find yourself in his shoes, please resist the impulse of taking an average value for forecasting. Because it‘s a trap.
And now you know how to avoid it.