Cómo COVID19 está afectando a las marcas y lo que podemos esperar para los próximos meses.

1. #STAYHOME EFFECTHow COVID19 is affecting Brands and what we can expect for the next coming months.

2. Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market
WUHAN, CHINA

3. 30 JANUARY
FIRST KNOWN CASE
the earliest known infection
occurred on 17 November
2019 in Wuhan, China. By
the end of Jan a chinese
lockdown affect over 50
million people.
17 NOVEMBER 7 JANUARY 25 FEBRUARY 11 MARCH
VIRUS SPREAD UP
France confirms Europe’s first case.
By the end of the month, virus spread
worldwide in over 170 countries, with
Italy and Spain being among the most
affected after China.
QUARANTENE START
Many italian northern
regions are placed under
quarantene to avoid virus
spreading up; flights from
and to China are suspended.
COUNTRY SHUTDOWN
WHO declared the coronavirus
outbreak a pandemic. Quarantene
is extended nationally in Italy,
followed by Spain and rest of
european countries.

4. 2020 Global GDP from +2,5% down to +1,3%.
COVID19 estimated to hit World economy growth by almost 50%.

5. -0,4% / -1,7%
EU GDP
-0,3%
DE GDP
-0,8%
ES GDP
0,3%
UK GDP
1%
US GDP
3,7%
CH GDP
-1,4%
JA GDP
-2%
IT GDP
0,3%
FR GDP
1,3%
BR GDP
1%
RU GDP
0%
MX GDP
Fitch Ratings,Global Outlook March 2020

6. A drop in global ad investment as little as 20B€.
Budget shifting to H2 2020, with a recovery depending on media and market.

7. Estimated drop during March/April.
Being an in-home channel, TV is doing better than the
rest of media, due to its peak in consumption and its
reach & branding strength.
The cut or absence of big spenders belonging to luxury,
travel or automotive sectors are being balanced by food,
beverage, finance and telcos brands’ activity, as well as
many others that are running corporate campaigns.
Annual estimated drop between 5 to 8% that can be
lowered according to H2 recovery.
30%

8. We estimate drop in online investment could be way over 30%, as sector like
Luxury and Travel as well as SMEs drive-to-store and product oriented
companies have been affected by quarantine and completely stopped activities.
Google will probably see 15% YoY decline of travel ad revenue during Q1 and
another 20% drop during Q2 due to Covid outbreak.
Lower spending in travel, retail, consumer packaged goods and entertainment
will also affect Facebook as they represent 30% to 45% of its total revenue.

9. With people at home and drive time fading, the lost in
Radio investment is estimated of at least 75% during COVID
outbreak, while OOH and Cinema are showing 0 activity.
Print is doing pretty good online in terms of audience,
although it is not managing to monetize it properly.

10. of brands reported an
immediate negative
impacts, 14% is expecting it
in April.
is expecting a national drop
in demand of at least 10%
for 2020.
76% 45% believes that the crisis will
be over in a few months.
1/3
BVA Doxa, Kantar

11. of brands will make use of the momentum to
maintain or increase its presence in the media.41%
BVA Doxa, Kantar
49%
will cut media and
advertising investment.

12. Focus presence on massive in-home channels
(TV and Online) with a switch from product to
brand oriented campaign and from short to
mid/long term objectives.
Have a meaningful and impactful brand
presence, generating an emotional
connection with prospects.
Keeping up brand awareness, building Top
of Mid in detriment of competitors, especially
those who are inactives.
On air Strategy
Get more with less, due to drop in ad cost
and peaks in media consumption.
More comfortable position toward providers
for post-COVID activity deals, balancing
expected boost in market demand.
:)

13. Stop activity is a “penny wise, pund foolish”
solution.
Prospect don’t buy, they chose. And the
choice comes from a selection.
A brand can be chosen only if it manages to
get a room within prospect mind set. The risk
of inactivity is to make this room available to
competitors, worth up to 13% lost in market
share*.
More economic effort and longer time to get
back to initial status, burning quickly all
savings made by being off.
Off air Implications
Lost worth the saving available during
COVID period.
Less comfortable position toward providers
for post-COVID activity deals, suffering
fluctuations generated by boost in market
demand.
:(
*Kantar Millword Brown estimation.

14. Watching TV became the main shelter of
millions of secluted people plenty of time.
Video consumption (linear / OTT) is up by 35%
and over depending on the market, especially
within generalist and news channels.

15. Quarantine is confining people within a short
selection of activities, mostly online.
Internet demand increased
by 70%, mainly due to
smartworking, as well as a
surge in online OTT/Video
consumption, gaming and
other entertainment activities.

16. NEXT
WHAT DO WE DO

17. rara avis in Terris nigroque simillima cygno, JUVENAL
SWAN
BLACK
EVENT

18. An extremely rare, highly biased, non-
computable and unpredictable event*.
*Meaning that all forecasts presented in this report might not make sense within a week.

19. which means

20. KEEP CALM
Don’t rush, but don’t stuck.

21. FORGET NORMALITY
Less bell-curve and Gaussian distribution, more power law.

22. FIND PARETOLook for that 20% effort that will generate 80% results.

23. FILL PEOPLE’S TIME
Make them get used to your brand and your content.

24. SEE OPPORTUNITIES
A behaviour adopted during 4 weeks can become an habit.

25. PREPARE REVENGE SPENDING
Be there when people are ready to take their normality back.

26. but most importantly

27. POSITIONFor better coming days, and don’t forget that people don’t buy, they chose*.
Al Ries said this. We couldn’t say it better, so we didn’t.

28. Keep safe and stay tuned !
info@bestoptionmedia.com