covid

1. COVID-19 and the
effects on Turkey
Point of view
April 2020

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Executive
summary COVID-19 facts and
the global economic
impact
The impact on
Turkey’s economy
Building resilient
businesses
The COVID-19 pandemic has hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases, and it is
spreading rapidly around the world.
The outbreak has impacted the global economy, and GDP growth is projected to
plummet.
High-risk industries such as manufacturing; tourism, travel, and transportation; and
retail have been struggling the most.
COVID-19 has already had a negative impact on key industries in Turkey, including
automotive, retail, and transportation.
Going forward, we foresee three scenarios of the coronavirus impact on Turkey:
– V-shape. Quick recovery (two to three months): 3–5% negative impact on GDP
– U-shape. Recession (four to five months): 6–8% negative impact on GDP
– L-shape. Downturn (more than nine months): 14–16% negative impact on GDP
Most of Turkey’s trade partners are being impacted by the coronavirus, and supply
chains will be drastically disrupted.
A focus on five areas can minimize the impact of the global pandemic on your
business:
Developing a customized survival plan can lessen the impact of the global pandemic
on your business.
– Employee management
– Supply chain and planning
– Operations
– Cash, liquidity, and external
management
– Customer engagement

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1. COVID-19 facts and the global economic impact
2. The impact on Turkey’s economy
3. Building resilient businesses

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1. COVID-19 facts and
the global economic
impact

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10x increase in
new cases
outside of China
over the past
two weeks
4%
fatality rate2
2x average
reproduction
rate compared
with the flu
The COVID-19
pandemic has
hundreds of
thousands of
confirmed cases,
and it is spreading
rapidly around the
world.
Key remarks
Because of the reproduction
rate of the virus and
globalization, COVID-19
spread around the world,
unlike many other diseases in
the past.
Scientists are unable to
predict the end date of the
pandemic, raising serious
concerns in terms of health
and the economy.
Comparison of COVID-19 to other diseases
Total number of countries the disease spread to
30 27
18 10
Ebola
SARS
COVID-19 MERS Influenza
H1N11
150+
Notes: 1. Influenza H1N1 in 2009. 2. Number of deaths/number of confirmed cases as of March 20, 2020
Sources: World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins Medicine; Kearney analysis

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Most countries
have been affected
by the pandemic,
but some have
taken a harder hit.
COVID-19 geographic impact1
Notes:1 As of March 20, 2020
Sources: International SOS; Kearney analysis
Outbreak Local transmission Imported cases only N/A
United States
The United States has been
struggling to test for the
virus, which has delayed
diagnosis.
Iran
Iran is struggling to contain
its outbreak, and the number
of cases are rising rapidly.
Europe
Italy, Spain, France, and
Germany are among the
countries experiencing the
highest growth of new cases. China
Cases are declining in China
as a result of strict
quarantines and hospital
construction.

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Lowering government
bond yields
The 10-year government bond
yields of major economies have
declined.
(%)
Services activity slowdown
China’s services PMI dropped to 26
points. Other economies are likely to
follow a similar decline.
Manufacturing activity
slowdown
China’s PMI dropped to 40 points,
and other economies are likely to
follow a similar decline.
Global economic growth
slowdown
GDP growth projections have been
downgraded for almost every
country, and more downgrades are
expected.
Global GDP growth
is projected to drop
significantly.
2.9
6.1
2.3
0.9 1.2
3.0
5.6
2.0
3.2
1.3
2.4
4.9
1.9
2.7
0.8
Eurozone
China
World United
States
Turkey
-20%
2019 2020 (new forecast)
2020 (old forecast)
51.5 51.9 51.3 47.9
40.3
50.7 52.4 49.2
? ?
Eurozone
Turkey
China United
States
?
Mar
Jan Feb
51.8 53.4 51.8 52.5
26.5
49.4 51.3 52.6
?
Turkey
China Eurozone
United
States
? ?
Jan Feb Mar
1Note: 1. As of March 20, 2020
Note: PMI is Purchasing Managers Index.
Sources: OECD, Moody’s, Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Kearney analysis
Effects will be more visible outside
of China in the upcoming months
as the virus spread accelerated in
March.
Manufacturing and services
are slowing down, and as a
result, stock markets around
the world are declining.
Major drop in China’s projected GDP,
manufacturing, and services PMI
Stock market rout
Major stock indices show a
decline in the year-to-date
view.1
-29.28%
S&P 500
-29.53%
STOXX
Europe 600
-28.67%
Nikkei 225
Index
-25.99%
BIST 100
12.0
3.2
1.9
0.8
13.0
2.7
1.0 0.5
United
Kingdom
Turkey China United
States
1-Jan-20 20-Mar-20
Effects will be more visible outside
of China in the upcoming months
as the virus spread accelerated in
March.

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Tourism, travel, and
transportation
Tourism and travel is one of the
world’s most severely hit
industries:
– The global hotel chain Marriott
has said it has seen a 75%
drop in revenue in most
locations around the world.
The world’s biggest airlines are all
facing huge drops in revenue as
a result of international travel
bans:
– Europe’s biggest low-cost
carrier, Ryanair, announced it
will reduce seat capacity by
80% for April and May.
Retail
Foot traffic to US retail stores
decreased 31% in mid-March
compared with last year.
Industry experts are expecting
15,000 US stores to go out of
business this year.
In China, retail has been one of
the hardest hit sectors as stores
of all sizes have been empty or
closed.
Kearney estimates indicate that
retailers in China will lose $213
billion to $426 billion in the first
quarter of 2020 alone.
Heading
Sub-heading
Text level
– First bullet level
– Second bullet level
Automotive
Even though China is slowly
getting back to work, the
automotive industry is still at less
than 50 percent of its pre-virus
production rates.
China, one of the largest
automotive markets, saw an 80%
sales drop in February.
Many original equipment
manufacturers, including Fiat
Chrysler Automobiles, PSA
Group, Renault Group, and
Volkswagen, have temporarily
shut down their factories in
Europe.
A variety of high-
risk industries
have been
struggling the
most.
Source: Desktop search, Kearney analysis

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The impact on
Turkey’s economy

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“Pandemic hospitals” are extended to
private hospitals and are required to dedicate
several wards and ICUs for patients who have COVID-
19.
Citizens who are older than 65 and
suffer from a chronic illnesses have
been restricted from leaving home.
Restrictions also include walking in open areas such as
parks and gardens.
COVID-19 test labs have increased
from 4 to 16 for fast diagnosis of potential cases.
Turkey decided to quarantine all
passengers returning from the
countries with the travel ban for 14
days and have already quarantined 10,330 people
that returned from Umrah.
All schools in Turkey have been
suspended, and distance education has started via
online channels and TV. Additionally, all gathering places
such as cafes, cinemas, theaters, and gyms
have stopped their business activities.
Turkey has imposed travel bans on 68
countries, including China, South Korea, Iran, Iraq,
Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Denmark,
Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, the United
Kingdom, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ireland, and
the United Arab Emirates.
As cases of
COVID-19 have
started to increase
in Turkey,
precautions and
safety measures
have been
strengthened.
Note: As of March 22, 2020
Source: Kearney analysis

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COVID-19 has
already had a
negative impact
on key industries
in Turkey.
Source: Desktop search, Kearney
With consumers avoiding leaving home, visits to
shopping malls have decreased more than 50%,
and many malls have been forced
to shut down.
Leading Turkish and international brands have
stopped their brick-and-mortar
operations across the country.
Ford Otosan announced it will suspend
production in its Kocaeli Gölcük factory.
Toyota announced it will suspend production
in its Sakarya factory for two weeks.
Hyundai announced it was unable to start
producing i20s because the expert technicians
from South Korea were unable to come to
Turkey.
Sources: TÖSHİD; Kearney analysis
After Turkey imposed travel bans on 68
countries, including some of its most important
markets, the country’s aviation sector is
expected to experience a $5 billion drop
in revenue in 2020.
Many tourism reservations have been
cancelled, and hotel occupancy rates
have dropped below 30% in some
areas.

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Turkey’s central bank has decreased
reference interest rate by 100 bps
The one-week repo rate has been discounted
from 10.75% to 9.75%.
The central bank is ensuring it will meet all
liquidity requirements for banks.
The central bank will begin additional three-
month maturity repo tenders.
Required reserve ratios have been decreased
by 5% for foreign-denominated reserves.
Turkey has announced a 100 billion TL
stimulus package with 19 action items
Major action items include the following:
– The Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) loan limit
has been increased from 25 billion TL to 50
billion TL.
– Principal and interest rate payments of bank
loans for impacted firms have been delayed
for three months.
– Exporter companies can get inventory
financing support to tackle slowing exports.
– The minimum pension level was increased to
1500 TL.
– Financing support is available for households
in need.
To minimize the
impact of the
virus, Turkey is
launching fiscal
and monetary
stimulus
packages.
Source: Kearney analysis

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U-shape: recession
Containment of the virus is
largely unsynchronized
initially, with strict
cooperation among
countries from the middle
of the second quarter of
2020.
The negative impact of the
virus lasts from mid-March
until mid-July. The
disturbance to business is
real but manageable.
L-shape: downturn
Containment of the virus is
largely unsynchronized.
The negative impact of the
virus lasts from mid-March at
least until the end of 2020.
Disturbance to business is
real, and economic
prospects remain
pessimistic.
V-shape: quick
recovery
The virus is contained
across Turkey’s major
economies and trade
partners within the next few
months.
A negative impact of the
virus lasts from mid-March
until the end of May.
Disturbance to business is
mild.
Looking ahead, we
see three possible
scenarios for the
coronavirus
impact on Turkey.
2–3
months
4–5
months
More than
9 months
V U L
Source: Kearney analysis

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Downturn
Annual GDP is significantly below 2019. Most industries
struggle to recover in the second half of 2020.
Travel and tourism industries are on the brink of collapse.
All industrial players are severely hit. Bankruptcies roll out.
Consumption is concentrated on basic goods.
Recession
Annual GDP is moderately below 2019. Some industries
struggle to recover in the second half of 2020.
Travel and tourism industries slowly recover in the fourth
quarter, but a strong stimulus is required.
Small industrial players are severely hit. Cash-flow
management in all players is a hot topic.
Consumption is weak across durable and semi-durable
goods.
Quick recovery
Annual GDP converges to last year’s performance. Most
industries rebound starting in June.
Travel and tourism industries are severely hit but rebound
during the second half of the year for a mild recovery.
There is a lagged consumption boom in the second half of
2020.
In our baseline
scenario of a
moderate
recession, we
predict a 6 to 8%
negative effect on
Turkey’s GDP.
3–5%
negative
impact on GDP
6–8%
negative
impact on GDP
14–16%
negative impact
on GDP
V
U
L

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Construction
Private projects are
expected to slow down,
which will create
significant cash-flow
bottlenecks to the
construction industry
as most work is done
through progress
billings.
Public projects are
expected to see a
milder impact.
However, because of
the potential redirection
of public institutions’
budgets, a slow-down
is inevitable.
Retail
Durable and semi-
durable goods are
expected to be more
severely hit than non-
durable goods.
Major retail players in
apparel have already
halted their brick-and-
mortar channels, which
will severely impact
shopping malls.
The shift to online sales
will accelerate with most
players increasing their
capabilities and online
infrastructure.
Tourism,
travel, and
transportation
With significant
restrictions for non-
essential travel
globally, the halt of
flights to more than 68
countries, and
reservation
cancellations, the
tourism industry is
being severely hit with
a low chance of a
rebound, at least until
the middle of the third
quarter of 2020.
Passenger travel will
be severely affected
both domestically and
internationally.
The effect on cargo is
expected to be milder
since there have been
no restrictions to cargo
movements.
Textiles and
garments
manufacturing
Domestic garment
sales will be severely
hit as a result of the
halt in brick-and-mortar
sales.
International sales will
be severely hit with
order cancellations that
already started in mid-
February.
More than 70% of
garment production
and more than 50% of
textile production are
targeted to export
markets, where Europe
is the largest buyer.
Automotive
Domestic car sales
plummeted last year
and were expected to
rebound in 2020.
However, with the
expected shift in
consumption to non-
durable goods, the
chance of growth is
low.
Automotive and original
equipment
manufacturer sales
have a large
concentration to
exports, where the
European Union has a
70% share. With an
outbreak in major EU
economies, automotive
exports are expected to
plummet.
Critical industries
are expected to be
severely impacted
by the COVID-19
outbreak.
Source: Kearney analysis

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Turkey’s top 10 export partners are affected by
the outbreak in varying degrees
Turkey’s import composition
(2019, $ billion)
Turkey’s export composition
(2019, $ billion)
Most of Turkey’s
trade partners are
impacted by the
coronavirus, and
supply chains will
be highly
disrupted.
49%
19%
7% 7%
6%
5%
7%
EU-27 and the United Kingdom
Middle East and
Caucasus
North America
North Africa
Remaining Asia
Europe
(excluding EU-27 and the United Kingdom)
Others
$9.0
bn
United
Kingdom
$15.4
bn
Germany
$10.9
bn
$9.3
bn
Iraq
Italy
$8.1
bn
United
States
$7.7
bn
Spain
$7.6
bn
France
$5.4
bn
Netherlands
$4.4
bn
Israel
$3.9
bn
Romania
47.5%
of total
exports
171.5
Italy
United
States
Russian
Federation
$8.6
bn
$22.5
bn
$18.5
bn
$11.2
bn
China
Germany
$18.0
bn
$6.6
bn
India
$6.4
bn
France
$5.6
bn
South
Korea
$5.4
bn
United
Kingdom
$4.3
bn
United
Arab
Emirates
52.8%
of total
exports
Imported only
Local transmission
Outbreak
34%
23%
15%
8%
6%
14%
EU-27 and the United Kingdom
Remaining Asia
North America
Europe
(excluding EU-27 and the United Kingdom) Middle East
and Caucasus
Others
202.7
Sources: International SOS, TÜİK; Kearney analysis
Imported only
Local transmission
Outbreak
Outbreak. There are more than
1,000 cases, locally acquired
cases in many areas, and many
exported cases.
Local transmission. Cases have
been acquired in the country, and
some may have no known links to
confirmed cases.

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At least 60% of household consumption
segments are under significant pressure
Downside pressure
The tourism industry makes up a significant
portion of the economy, and any disruption will
hurt growth
Consumer confidence has not been severely hit
but is weak
Leisure and shopping make up the majority of
inbound tourists, which is non-essential travel
Consumption will
be hit by a
massive blow to
tourism and
restrictive
domestic activity.
90
85
105
70
80
75
100
95
Jan-18
Feb-20
Jan-19
Feb-18
Jun-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Nov-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Sep-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Consumer confidence index (January 2018 = 100)
24%
100%
20%
18%
16%
Restaurant,
hotels
Housing, rent
6%
Transportation
Food, non-alcoholic
beverages
7%
Furniture,
house appliances
5%
Clothing,
footwear
4%
Alcoholic beverages,
tobacco
Others
Total household
consumptıon
21.9%
20.8%
19.2%
21.3%
21.8%
21.9%
17.5%
20.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
2013
Ratio
of
tourism
income
to
exports
(%)
Ratio
of
tourism
income
to
GDP
(%)
2012
2011
2010
2014
2015
15.5%
2016
16.7%
2017
2018
2019
Ratio of tourism
income to exports (%)
Ratio of tourism
income to GDP (%)
1Note: 1.Excluding accompanying persons
Sources: TÜİK,TÜRSAB; Kearney analysis
71%
19%
10%
Other
Leisure and
shopping
Family visit
44
million
inbound tourists1

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Foreign direct investments are poised to drop
below 2019 levels
The share of investment in GDP was 25% in 2019
Investment is a
crucial part of
GDP, and FDI in
2020 will be
severely affected
as international
investments are
expected to slow
down globally. $0bn
$20bn
$30bn
$5bn
2.0%
$25bn
2.5%
$10bn
0.0%
$15bn
$35bn
$40bn
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
$8.4bn
$9.1bn
$11.5bn
$16.2bn
2011
$13.7bn
2012
$13.6bn
$19.3bn
2013
$13.3bn
2014 2016
2015 2018
$14.0bn
2017
$13.1bn
2019
2010
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (current $)
Note: FDI is foreign direct investment.
Sources: TÜİK, TCMB; Kearney analysis
32%
20%
22%
30%
24%
28%
26%
2017
2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2018
2015 2016 2019
Total investment (% of GDP)

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Building resilient
businesses

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Focusing on five
areas can
minimize the
impact of the
global pandemic
on your business.
Customer
engagement
Supply chain
and planning
Diversify the supply chain to
reduce the risk of a supply
shortage.
Re-evaluate inventory and
safety stock levels to
increase buffers and maintain
service levels.
Operations
Identify points of lower
utilization, and prioritize
supporting activities, such as
educational activities and
annual or regular
maintenance.
Keep operations at a
minimum while retaining the
agility to ramp up quickly.
Employee
management
Build a dedicated
committee, and give
employees clear direction and
reliable information to alleviate
pandemic-related stress.
Review the organization’s
policies, and involve
relevant partners to ensure
appropriate, applicable, and
flexible plans.
Cash, liquidity, and
external management
1 2
5
3
4 Establish a transparent
communication line for
B2B and B2C customers.
Reconsider marketing and
sales channels with a
potential shift to online.
Stabilize cash flows to ensure
enough liquidity.
Ensure continuous and
transparent communication
to all external stakeholders.
Note: B2B is business to business; B2C is business to consumer.
Source: Kearney analysis

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We have identified
key actions in
each focus area
(1/3).
Employee
management
1
Supply chain
and planning
2
Operations
3
Cash, liquidity,
and external
management
4
Customer
engagement
5
Sources: Dun & Bradstreet, Willis Watson; Kearney
1. Employee management
Create a committee, a single point of coordination between HR, C-level
executives, senior leaders, and representatives to formulate a centralized
response, ensure consistent messaging, and quickly develop a solid plan
Assign HR as the organizational source of truth to headquarter
communications in one trusted place and provide consistent messaging for e.g.
changes in working hours, communication of work-from-home policy
Review your organization’s policies (sick leave, vacation, customer visits,
meetings, travel), and consider allowing negative sick leave balance, not counting
sick days used during the crisis, allowing employees to take care of dependents
Provide support in setting up the infrastructure to work from home
Provide educational content for prevention, e.g. informing employees on simple
tips, important global news
Follow guidelines from global authorities (e.g. WHO)
Involve partners (health and life insurance, international SOS, emergency
evacuation partners) to ensure appropriate, applicable, and flexible plans for
emergency situations
Boost morale of employees with ongoing communication and virtual video
check-in calls
Real-life examples
– About half of companies in the US have taken measures to handle the crisis:
– Temporary remote working (46%)
– Travel restrictions and mandatory virtual meetings (55%)
– Postponed international conferences (47%)
Companies have already
started establishing a
dedicated committee,
providing clear direction,
reliable information, and a
transparent response to
alleviate pandemic-related
stress

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We have identified
key actions in
each focus area
(2/3).
Employee
management
1
Supply chain
and planning
2
Operations
3
Cash, liquidity,
and external
management
4
Customer
engagement
5
Source: Kearney
2. Supply Chain & Planning
‒…
2. Supply chain and planning
Develop models to test scenarios on what will happen on the ground and
identify areas of shortage, and develop “sense and pivot” capability accordingly
Identify the effects on transportation networks and pre-book logistics capacity
Build a network of alternative suppliers, prioritizing potential areas of shortage
Diversify the supply chain, identify points of single sourcing in the supply chain
and evaluate multiple sourcing to reduce the risk of supply shortage
Incur necessary expenditures to secure alternative sources and expedited
shipping
Consider nearshoring, focusing primarily on shorter supply chains
Maintain a real-time full view of product inventory across delivery channels
Continuously review demand forecasts, identifying challenges and addressing
corresponding news updates
Reallocate inventory across sales channels to address fluctuating demand, and
consider radical shifts toward e-commerce and home delivery
Re-evaluate inventory and safety stock levels to increase buffers and maintain
service levels in the crisis period for customer satisfaction and competitive
differentiation
Identify business-critical suppliers and extend financial support if possible
Real-life examples
– Food Retailer Association (GPD) in Turkey increased the inventory levels
especially for hygiene and personal care to prevent stock outs
938 of the Fortune 1000
companies have a tier 1 or 2
supplier already affected
by the virus

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We have identified
key actions in
each focus area
(3/3).
Employee
management
1
Supply chain
and planning
2
Operations
3
Cash, liquidity,
and external
management
4
Customer
engagement
5
Source: Kearney
3. Operations
Keep operations at a minimum, while
retaining the capacity and agility to ramp up
quickly once the situation begins to resolve
Identify points of lower utilization, prioritize
supporting activities (e.g. educational activities,
maintenance)
Shift capacity/resource allocations to
emerging product lines or services
4. Cash, liquidity, and external management
Assess risk exposure regarding financial
implications and additional financing need
Stabilize cash flows to ensure enough
liquidity, e.g. hiring freeze, opex, capex,
working capital
Ensure continuous and transparent
communication to external stakeholders
5. Customer engagement
Establish transparent communication line
for B2B and B2C customers
Provide fact-based reports to communicate
the situation and set proper expectations for
customers
Reconsider marketing channels, and avoid
freezing all marketing activities; lean in to
online
Conduct investigation on core customer
segments to anticipate customer behavior
Global companies started
keeping operations at
minimum while retaining the
capacity to ramp up.
Turkish retail companies
started providing updates
regarding their sales
channels
Real-life examples
Major automotive
manufacturers in Turkey
partially shut down
operations (e.g. Ford,
Toyota, Honda, Temsa)
Real-life examples
Major airlines including
Turkish Airlines and
Pegasus established
communication line to
provide regular
announcements to
update customers
Real-life examples
Although all major
companies are focused on
increasing liquid assets
during the crisis period, a
potential gap exists for
many companies including
Ak Enerji, Carrefoursa with
cash debt ratio <20%

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Four steps can
help you develop a
customized
survival plan to
lessen the impact
of the global
pandemic on your
business.
Assess industry
strength
The impact significantly
differs depending on the
industry:
– Assess the impact on
the company’s industry
to take appropriate
measures.
– Conduct competitive
analysis with a focus
on operations.
– Leverage automation
features to minimize
personal contact.
– Identify labor-intensive
operations, and
develop alternative
scenarios.
Evaluate supply
chains
The transportation and
logistics industry is
feeling the epidemic on a
massive scale:
– Maintain full visibility in
the entire supply chain.
– Evaluate suppliers,
and identify potential
points for shortages.
– Identify diversification
and nearshoring
opportunities.
– Re-evaluate inventory
and allocation across
channels.
Review business
forecasts
Revising business plans
and strategy is
mandatory. Existing
plans are now
inapplicable:
– Anticipate changes in
demand for different
segments.
– Identify emerging
segments.
– Develop a scenario-
based business
forecast for the next
three to 12 months.
Develop a survival
plan
The repercussions are
expected to be felt for
more than a year:
– Establish a detailed
and flexible survival
plan focusing on
required investments
and personnel.
Source: Kearney analysis

25. This document is exclusively intended for selected client employees. Distribution, quotations and duplications –
even in the form of extracts – for third parties is only permitted upon prior written consent of Kearney.
Kearney used the text and charts compiled in this report in a presentation; they do not represent a complete
documentation of the presentation.
Thank you
With the contribution of:
Ulvi Abdullazada
Idil Sezal
Can Yücel
Stay connected with Kearney
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Partner
sean.wheeler@kearney.com
+90 530 234 1051
Istanbul, Turkey
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+90 530 234 1060
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