Visions Conference 2016

1. The Psychology of Risk
Engaging to understanding
how people make sense of
uncertainty
Visions
July 2016
Dave Whitefield
dave@peopleandrisk.com
www.peopleandrisk.com

2. Visions 2016

3. Quick common sense test
Visions 2016

4. The Blues were always going to win?
Visions 2016

7. Pick a card
Visions 2016

8. Concentrate….
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10. A C B
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12. Above
Average
Average
Below
Average
Visions 2016

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Conscious
AnalyDcal
RaDonal
SystemaDc
OpDmizing
CalculaDng
Unconscious
Auto-Pilot
Micro-rules
Individual
Efficient
SaDsficing
Bias
Priming
Slower Faster
16-40bps 10Bil. bps
Long
Norretranders
Kahneman

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What would it be like working in a world
where most decisions are made
unconsciously, everyone thinks differently,
people are biased, use micro-rules nearly
all the Dme, and can be influenced by
language, signs and symbols?
Would this understanding change the way we look at
the world and the way we engage with others?

17. 52.77%
45.72%
0.51% 1.01% 0.00%
Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree
People see risks differently.
10.94%
41.68%
5.87%
31.16%
10.35%
Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree
Safety is just common sense.
Visions 2016

18. “If you can’t measure it you can’t manage it”
What is safe?
If it isn’t documented it didn’t happen.
We inves;gate to…
The more data the be?er.
You have to have some carrot as well as s;ck.
It’s all about behaviour.
Visions 2016

19. Speed: Smash- 65.7 Hit- 54.
Glass?: Smash- 16/34 Hit- 7/43
Visions 2016

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According to Dr Gilbey, no method has yet been found to
prevent these poor thinking habits.
"Only a small minority are an excep;on to these rules," he
said.
"We've tried several interven;ons, including telling people
about these biases and what is going on, but it all has
pre?y much no effect at all.
"It's just a very human thing to do."

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“Dr Vartanian and his team reviewed almost 40
studies, and found the impact of "social
modelling" on a person's food intake is almost
twice as powerful on a person's consump;on as
controlling their por;on sizes, which gets a lot of
media a?en;on.”

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1 5432

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25. For me, the key element in
understanding the psychology of risk is
understanding that I actually have no
idea how other people are making sense
of risk and uncertainty.
So the only way I can begin to
understand is to engage and connect
with others, and the way I engage is
really really important.
Visions 2016

26. Isn’t that interesDng…
Tell me about...
Talk me through...
What’s the plan…
What could go wrong...
I was concerned that...
Visions 2016

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28. The Psychology of Risk
Engaging to understanding
how people make sense of
uncertainty
Visions
July 2016
Dave Whitefield
dave@peopleandrisk.com
www.peopleandrisk.com