2. The New River Valley Real Estate Market Continues to Improve.
We’ve been hearing for the last 12-18 months about how some of the larger real estate markets in the United States have
experienced a drastic positive upside swing. Stories of low inventory levels, multiple offers, and increasing prices. While
we still wouldn’t consider the New River Valley real estate market to be in the ‘hot’ category, signs continue to be positive in
our region. Just as there was never a sharp upswing in the market back in the mid-2000s, there will not be an overnight
recovery either. However, it looks like market is still trending in the right direction.
Overall, the New River Valley posted a slight increase in total sales. NRV real estate sales increased from 410 in Q3 2011 to
424 in Q3 2012 (+3.4%). While this is great news, the huge drop in inventory levels was even better news. Inventory levels
fell drastically in every category in the New River Valley. Notably, single family home inventory fell by 14.9% and attached
inventory fell 27.7%
As much as it’s great to see sales numbers increase, it’s even more beneficial to see the inventory levels fall back towards
normal levels. We’ve been saying for years that until inventory levels and months of inventory drop significantly, there will
be no chance for a recovery. The basic laws of supply and demand come into play when inventory levels are too high: high
inventory levels lead to falling real estate prices. And buyers are less likely to purchase when prices are falling.
While we haven’t seen any across-the-board price increases in the region due to the inventory levels falling, today’s real
estate buyer does have more confidence in the market than they did 18 months ago. That’s a good thing.
We were a bit surprised that Q3 sales in Blacksburg actually fell from 2011 by almost 10% (from 92 to 73). On the other
hand, Christiansburg had a very strong quarter by posting a year-over-year increase in total sales by 26%. This drop in
Blacksburg sales and the increase in Christiansburg sales could very well be linked to the quality of inventory in each
market market and how well that quality inventory is priced. Contracts written on homes in Blacksburg and Christiansburg
were up from Q3 2011. So, that proves there are still active buyers in the marketplace.
Moving forward, we expect inventory levels to continue to come down in the coming months. However, don’t be surprised
if inventory spikes in the early Spring. We’re hearing evidence in not only Virginia, but throughout the country, that many
sellers are targeting Spring 2013 as their chance to sell their homes. If this happens, and if the banks decide to release
their ‘shadow inventory’ of bank-owned homes into the marketplace, we could see a flood of properties hitting the market.
This could lead to a bit of a speed bump on the road to recovery if inventory levels get too high.
But interest rates remain low and all signs are pointing to the economy starting to gain a bit of steam. And, in reality, the
foreclosure wave never hit the NRV hard so we do not expect the release of bank-owned shadow inventory to impact the
local market here much at all.
We are hopeful that the New River Valley real estate market will continue to keep chugging along. If Q3 tells us anything, it
tells us that the local market is continuing to move in the right direction.
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3. New River Valley MSA Market Snapshot
Year-over-year residential real estate sales in the New River Valley MSA saw a slight uptick in the second quarter with a modest 3.4% gain. After
large sales increased from Q3 2010 to Q3 2011, overall sales across the board were relatively steady. Attached homes experienced a 4.8% gain,
while single family home sales increased by 3.7%. Median sales prices for single family homes increased by 9.4% and attached home median
pricing fell by 5.3%.
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
800
600
400
200
0
Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12 Q2 ’12 Q3 ’12
The most positive news for New River Valley real estate sales lies in the inventory levels. Total year-over-year inventory fell sharply across the
board. Inventory for single family homes was reduced by 14.9% to 1833 total units. Total inventory for attached homes in Q3 fell by 27.7% to
125 units. Months of Inventory was also lower for both attached (down 31% to 8.52 months) and for single family homes (down 17.9% to 14.98
months). These lower inventory levels are a key determinant to leading us towards a more balanced real estate market in the New River Valley.
MSA (Entire New River Valley MSA)
Total Sold Average Median Total Total Months of
Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales Inventory Inventory
Single Family
Q3 2012 $68,064,516 $185,462 $164,000 367 1833 14.98
Change 12.4% 8.4% 9.4% 3.7% -14.9% -17.9%
Q3 2011 $60,579,459 $171,128 $149,950 354 2153 18.24
Change 25.9% -4.7% -0.8% 32.1% -2.6% -26.3%
Q3 2010 $48,108,982 $179,511 $151,200 268 2210 24.74
Average Average Median Total Total Months of
List Price Sale Price Sale Price Sales Inventory Inventory
Q3 2012 $6,755,125 $153,526 $156,500 44 125 8.52
Attached
Change -4.6% -9.0% -5.3% 4.8% -27.7% -31.0%
Q3 2011 $7,082,800 $168,638 $165,250 42 173 12.35
Change 57.7% -6.1% 3.3% 68.0% -27.0% -55.7%
Q3 2010 $4,490,690 $179,628 $159,900 25 237 27.88
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4. Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot
Year-over-year sales in Blacksburg dropped by 9.7% (from 92 to 73) in Q3. All three categories of real estate suffered this past quarter: single
family home sales were down 8.9%, attached homes were down 31.6%, and condominiums were down 28.6%. However, median prices for single
family homes increased by 7.3% . Attached (-11.5%) and condominium (-15.6%) both experienced a drop in median prices. Total sales volume in
Blacksburg was also lower this past quarter. Single family (-5.4%), attached (-47.6%) and condominiums (-44.4%) also saw decreases.
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12 Q2 ’12 Q3 ’12
The overall 5-year trend line for Blacksburg continues to be down slightly. For the 3rd time in four quarters, the total year-over-year sales
numbers were down. On a positive note, contracts written on single family homes in Blacksburg were up 28.1%. Contracts written for attached
and condominiums were relatively flat.
Total Average Median Total Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales # Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 14,445,324 283,242 263,500 51 Q3 2012 2,182,500 167,885 169,000 13
Single Family
Attached
Change -5.4% 3.9% 7.3% -8.9% Change -47.6% -23.4% -11.5% -31.6%
Q2 2012 15,270,900 272,695 245,500 56 Q2 2012 4,165,100 219,216 191,000 19
Q3 2012 14,445,324 283,242 263,500 51 Q3 2012 2,182,500 167,885 169,000 13
Change -11.7% 3.9% 3.1% -15.0% Change -5.6% -12.8% -3.2% 8.3%
Q3 2011 16,361,434 272,691 255,500 60 Q3 2011 2,311,500 192,625 174,500 12
Total Average Median Total Contracts Written
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 1,155,050 115,505 115,000 10 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
Change -44.4% -22.1% -15.6% -28.6%
Condos
Single Family 32 41 28.1%
Q2 2012 2,076,800 148,343 136,250 14
Q3 2012 1,155,050 115,505 115,000 10 Attached 11 10 -9.1%
Change 728.0% 1.4% 5.0% 0.0% Condos 6 6 0.0%
Q3 2011 139,500 113,950 109,500 10
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5. Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)
Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type
14%
18%
69%
Single Family Attached Condos
Single family homes continue to make up the largest percentage of sales within Blacksburg Town Limits. Approximately 7 out of every 10 sales in
Blacksburg was a single family home. The percentage of single family homes increased slightly from Q2 2012 when detached homes made up
63% of the market. The popularity of condominiums fell off slightly (from 16% to 14%) and also for attached homes ( from 21% to 18%) from the
second quarter.
Blacksburg In Town Limits Percent of Sales by Price Range
Q3 ’12 4% 35% 43% 16% 1%
Q2 ’12 1% 36% 43% 18% 2%
Q1 ’12 6% 45% 28% 19% 2%
Q4 ’11 0% 6% 50% 35% 9%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300k-500k Over 500K
The percentage of sales by price range tells an interesting story for the second straight quarter: more homes in higher price categories are selling
as compared to the previous year. Notice that the sub-$100,000 sales made up just 4% of the market: down from a range of 6-7% from the
previous quarters. The most popular price category was the $200,000-$300,000 range, making up 43% of the marketplace.
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6. Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot
The Christiansburg real estate market picked up in Q3. Total year-over-year sales increased by 26%. Total sales increased for both single family
homes, but were relatively flat for both condominiums (from 2 to 3) and for attached (from 26 to 24). Single family home sale volume increased
by 15.1%, while sales volume for attached homes was off by 9.6%. Total sales volume for condominiums was up 27.9%, but there were only a total
of 3 sales. Overall, the total 5-year sales trend for Christiansburg continues on a downward trend. The past 4 quarters have been mixed: year-
over-year sales have been up in two quarters and down for two quarters.
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12 Q2 ’12 Q3 ’12
Median prices in Christiansburg were up slightly for single family homes (+1.7%) and attached homes (+3.2%). Condominium median prices were
down 11.5%. However, there were only 3 condominium sales in Christiansburg so the sample size is too small to come to any conclusions. In
positive news, contracts written were up for single family (+29.73%) and relatively flat for attached and condominiums.
Total Average Median Total Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales # Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 11,973,174 184,203 175,000 65 Q3 2012 3,405,450 141,894 139,900 24
Single Family
Attached
Change 15.1% -2.6% 1.7% 18.2% Change -9.6% -2.0% 3.2% -7.7%
Q2 2012 10,400,000 189,091 172,000 55 Q2 2012 3,765,200 144,815 135,500 26
Q3 2012 11,973,174 184,203 175,000 65 Q3 2012 3,405,450 141,894 139,900 24
Change 32.4% 1.9% -0.1% 30.0% Change 20.2% 0.1% 4.8% 20.0%
Q3 2011 9,041,000 180,820 175,250 50 Q3 2011 2,834,300 141,715 133,450 20
Total Average Median Total Contracts Written
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 766,000 255,333 265,000 3 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
Change 27.9% -14.7% -11.5% 50.0%
Condos
Single Family 37 48 29.73%
Q2 2012 598,850 299,425 299,425 2
Q3 2012 766,000 255,333 265,000 3 Attached 19 18 -5.26%
Change 14.6% 14.6% 20.5% 0.0%
Condos 2 2 NA
Q3 2011 668,200 222,733 220,000 3
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7. Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)
Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type
3%
26%
71%
Single Family Attached Condos
Nearly seven out of every 10 homes purchased in Christiansburg in Q3 was a single family home. This is up from 66% from Q2. Attached homes
represented 26% of the total Christiansburg market, a reduction from 31% in Q2.
Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Percent of Sales by Price Range
Q3 ’12 0% 8% 66% 21% 5%
Q2 ’12 0% 5% 66% 24% 6%
Q1 ’12 0% 7% 71% 18% 4%
Q4 ’11 0% 13% 64% 20% 4%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300K-500K Over 500k
The sub-$100k market saw a slight uptick in Q3. Sub-$100k homes made up approximately 8% of the market - more than either of the last two
quarters. The break down of homes by price in Christiansburg was mostly in-line as compared to previous quarters. Homes over $200,000
comprised approximately 26% of the marketplace: that represents a decrease over Q2, but an increase from Q1 2012 and Q4 2011.
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8. Montgomery County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 $15,869,800 $236,863 $228,000 67
Overall
Change 14.4% 0.7% 11.2% 13.6%
Q3 2011 $13,871,315 $235,107 $205,000 59
Change 46.5% 6.8% 23.5% 37.2%
Q3 2010 $9,467,244 $220,168 $166,000 43
Montgomery County real estate sales had another strong quarter in Q3. Total sales were up Contracts Written
13.6% (from 59 to 67) and total sales volume rose by 14.4% to $15,869,800. Median sales
prices were off by 11.2%, which most likely helped to spur the increase in sales. That sales Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
increase trend seems to have continued with a 25% year-over-year increase in contracts
written. Expect sales to be strong in Montgomery County in Q4. 52 65 25.0%
Pulaski County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 $7,070,057 $130,927 $119,050 54
Overall
Change 19.6% 19.6% 22.7% 0.0%
Q3 2011 $5,910,795 $109,459 $97,000 54
Change -7.0% -19.0% -13.9% 14.9%
Q3 2010 $6,352,303 $135,155 $112,705 47
Pulaski followed its strong Q2 2012 with a relatively strong Q3. While total sales were flat at 54, Contracts Written
total volume rose by 19.6%. Median prices even rose by 22.7% to $119,050. Those higher
prices don’t seem to be deterring buyers in Pulaski as contracts written in Q3 increased again Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
by 3.2%.
62 64 3.2%
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9. City of Radford
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 $4,699,081 $134,259 $131,031 35
Overall
Change 12.8% 6.3% 8.7% 6.1%
Q3 2011 $4,166,985 $126,272 $120,500 33
Change -3.4% -21.0% -10.7% 22.2%
Q3 2010 $4,314,900 $159,811 $134,900 27
Contracts Written
The City of Radford struggled through a tough Q1 2012, but continued its bounced back with a
strong Q3. Total sales were up 6.1%, as were median prices (+8.7%), average sale prices
Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
(+8.7%) and total sales volume (+12.8%). Radford’s recent stretch of falling median prices may
be attracting buyers back into the marketplace. However, contracts written in Q3 were down by
20%. 30 24 -20.0%
Giles County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q3 2012 $3,655,150 $130,541 $117,200 28
Overall
Change 15.1% 15.1% 13.0% 0.0%
Q3 2011 $3,176,100 $113,432 $103,750 28
Change 178.9% 59.4% 62.7% 75.0%
Q3 2010 $1,138,800 $71,175 $63,750 16
Like Pulaski, Giles County continued its steady real estate market with a strong Q3. Total year- Contracts Written
over-year sales were flat at 28. However, median prices rose 13% and total sales volume
increased by over 15%. Those higher prices do not seem to be deterring buyers as contracts Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Change
written in Q3 were up by 14.8% over Q2.
27 31 14.8%
*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the New River Valley Area MLS as of 10/20/12. This report covers the entire New River Valley real estate market.
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